NBA News and Notes Friday 2/19

Game of the day: Celtics at Trail Blazers
By Lee Kostroski

Help’s on the way

The Blazers (32-24) destroyed the Clippers in their first game back from the All-Star break, 109-87, and they did it without Marcus Camby, who watched in street clothes from the Portland bench after being acquired in a trade with the Clips earlier in the day.

Camby, the No. 2 rebounder in the NBA, was picked up in the deal that sent guard Steve Blake and injured forward Travis Outlaw to the Clips. With centers Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla lost for the season to injuries, the need for Camby was evident Tuesday night.

“At times, (the Clippers) got to the basket fairly easy,” head coach Nate McMillan said. “What (Camby) brings to the floor, we are missing — a guy who will rotate and defend the basket as well as rebound and block shots. That’s his strength. I’m looking forward to getting him out there.”

Camby is likely to suit up as a Blazer for the first time on Friday, but All-Star guard Brandon Roy is questionable. Roy played in the first half against the Clippers, but sat out the second half due to tightness in his right hamstring that had caused him to miss 15 of the previous 16 games.

Roy sounded afterward as if he may decide to sit out an extended period of time to heal the leg.

“I feel like I’m probably going to need to stop playing for awhile,” said Roy, “It’s hard to get a rhythm. I was more concerned about (making) the move than shooting the basketball. If I’m thinking that much about playing, it’s not worth being out there.”

McMillan said on Thursday that no decision had been made on Roy’s availability for Friday against Boston.

“We have days to give him some time, and we’ll do that,” he said.

No tea party

The Celtics are playing their second straight road game after a trip to face the Lakers last night.

The Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last five games playing on zero days rest so it will be interesting to see how they respond in their second of a back-to-back road game when visiting Portland on Friday.

Boston has been rumored among trade talks that are mainly surrounding Ray Allen and Eddie House.

Celts GM Danny Ainge is looking to pump life into a team that’s lost its luster and edge and did just that Thursday by acquiring the tumultuous Nate Robinson from the Knicks in exchange for House.

House was well-liked by his teammates and played a positive role in the locker room. You have to wonder if Robinson will rub some veteran Celtics the wrong way.

Allen, meanwhile, is determined to prove that he still has game and that he’s still a key part of a championship contending team. Entering Thursday’s game, Allen is averaging 16.0 points over 49 games and is shooting just 33.8 percent from long range.

Last season Allen averaged 18.2 ppg while hitting over 40 percent from beyond the arc.

The Big Three, for the first time in two months, are healthy at the same time. Paul Pierce rested his strained left foot while in Dallas, and Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy should receive a couple of thank you cards from Celtics fans for only playing All-Stars Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett a combined 24 minutes.

Without Garnett and Pierce at full strength, the Celtics were just a shadow of the team they had envisioned they’d be.

“We lost games we wished we had back,’’ Allen said. “We made mistakes we wished we hadn’t made. Our eyes are not off what our goal is. We still feel optimistic and everybody has a desire to win. That’s what we’re working on. That’s what our focus is.’’

Head-to-head

These two met in Boston back on Jan. 22. All-Star Kevin Garnett made his return from a knee injury while Blazers’ Roy was sidelined with a hamstring injury.

Garnett gave Boston’s front line a major boost and the Celts outscored Portland in the paint, 56-32.

Portland won its home meeting with the Celts last season to end a seven-game losing streak against Boston. Boston’s win in January extended its streak to eight wins in the last nine meetings between these two clubs. The C's have covered the number in seven of those nine games.

Key stats

Average point differential
Boston: +5.0
Portland: +2.6

Field goal percentage differential
Boston: +3.9
Portland: +0.2

Rebounding differential
Boston: -0.7
Portland: +2.1

Trends

Boston is just 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 vs. Western Conference but 5-2 ATS in its last seven vs. NBA Northwest with five straight up victories this season – Portland, Utah, Minnesota (twice) and Oklahoma City.

Portland is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Eastern Conference but, as mentioned above, struggle against Boston. The Blazers are just 1-4 ATS in the last five home games against the Celtics.

Dallas (33-21, 22-32 ATS) at Orlando (37-18, 28-26-1 ATS)

The Mavericks continue their frantic stretch of four games in five nights with a stop at Amway Arena in Orlando for a matchup with the red-hot Magic.

Dallas followed up the All-Star break with a trip to Oklahoma City on Tuesday and fell 99-86 as a 4½-point underdog, but it bounced back and beat Phoenix 107-97at home as a four-point favorite on Wednesday. Now the Mavericks are in Orlando and then return home for a matchup with the Heat on Saturday. Dallas is 17-12 (16-13 ATS) on the road this season, but even though they held the high-scoring Suns to double digits on Wednesday, they’ve had trouble stopping teams, allowing 111.4 points per game over their last five on 50.4 percent shooting.

Orlando has won 11 of its last 14 (8-6 ATS) and crushed Detroit 116-91 on Wednesday, easily cashing as an 11-point home chalk. Dwight Howard was unstoppable with 33 points, 17 rebounds and seven blocked shots. The Magic have increased their productivity lately, averaging 109.6 ppg over their last five, eight more than their season average.

This is the first meeting between these two this season, but Dallas has won five of the last six (3-3 ATS) and seven of the last nine overall (3-6 ATS). Last season, the Mavericks went to Orlando and scored a 105-95 upset last season as 7½-point underdogs and have won and covered in Amway Arena each of the last three seasons. The road team and underdog are a perfect 5-0 ATS in each of the last five matchups.

Even though it easily cashed against Phoenix two nights ago, Dallas has been a disaster at the betting window of late, as it is currently on ATS slides of 7-19 overall, 5-16 after getting a day off, 1-4 on the road, 0-4 as an underdog, 0-11 after a spread-cover and 1-6 against Southeast Division foes. Conversely, Orlando has covered in five of seven as a chalk and four straight after a day off, but from there the Magic are on ATS skids of 5-11 after a spread-cover, 2-5 on Friday and 1-6 against Southwest Division teams.

The Mavericks are on several “over” runs, including 14-6 as road ‘dogs, 13-5 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 on Fridays and 4-0 following a straight-up win. On the opposite end, the Magic are on “under” streaks of 14-6 overall, 39-18 after a day off, 10-1 on Fridays, 12-4 as favorites and 4-1 against the Western Conference.

In this series, the “over” has been the play in eight of the last nine clashes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Atlanta (34-18, 33-19 ATS) at Phoenix (32-23, 29-26 ATS)

The Hawks continue their West Coast road trip with a stop at US Airways Center in Phoenix for a matchup with the Suns.

Atlanta began its four-game jaunt with a 110-92 win in Los Angeles on Wednesday, cashing as a seven-point favorite against the Clippers. All-Star Al Horford had a stellar performance, going 12-of-15 from the field for 31 points and six rebounds. Even with the win in L.A., the Hawks are only 13-12 on the road this season, but have cashed in 15 of those 25 contests.

Phoenix was in Dallas on Wednesday, losing 107-97 to the Mavericks as a four-point underdog, with Amare Stoudemire putting up 30 points and grabbing 14 rebounds in the losing effort. The 97 points snapped a 13-game streak in which the Suns had reached triple digits and was just the second time they fell short of the century mark in 27 contests. At home, Phoenix puts up 112.7 ppg and shoots 49.6 percent from the floor.

These two met on Jan. 15 in Atlanta with the Hawks pulling out a 102-101 victory, but falling short as 5½-point favorites. The road team has cashed in five of the last seven, and the underdog has grabbed the cash in four of the last five overall.

The Hawks are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as a road ‘dog of up to 4 ½-points, but they are on ATS runs of 21-10-1 against Western Conference teams, 8-2 after getting a day off and 4-1 on Fridays. The Suns are on ATS slides of 1-4 at home, 2-6 against the Eastern Conference and 3-7 as favorites, but they have cashed in 11 of 15 on Fridays and six of eight overall.

For Atlanta, the “under” is 14-6-1 in its last 21 as a ‘dog and 10-2-1 after a straight-up win, but the “over” has been the play in three of five on the road and five of six against Pacific Division teams. Phoenix is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 6-0 overall, 13-4 against Southeast Division teams, 12-4-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 6-2 as a home favorite, 4-0 on Fridays and 5-2 as a favorite.

Finally, the “under” is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two, but the “over” has cashed in five of the last six played in the desert.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Boston (34-18, 20-31-1 ATS) at Portland (32-24, 30-25-1 ATS)

One night after pulling off an 87-86 upset win over the rival Lakers, the Celtics return to the court for a matchup against the Trail Blazers inside the Rose Garden.

Boston went to Los Angeles on Thursday night and eked out a one-point win as a 2½-point underdog, with Ray Allen leading the charge with 24 points. The Celtics are three games into their five-game Western Conference road trip, but they’re still on slides of 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall, and 3-7 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back this season.

Portland has been off since Tuesday when it beat the Clippers 109-87, cashing as a 7½-point favorite. Martell Webster put up 28 points to lead the Blazers, and All-Star guard Brandon Roy had just four points in 15 minutes of action as he eases his way back into the lineup after missing 15 consecutive games with a strained hamstring.

The Celtics have dominated this series, winning eight of the last nine and cashing in eight of the last 10. Back on Jan. 22 in Boston, the Celtics prevailed 98-95 in overtime, but came nowhere near covering the 10½-point spread as the road team improved to 13-6 ATS in the last 19 series clashes. Last season in Portland, the Blazers got their first win over the Celtics since 2004 with a 91-86 upset as a 6½-point home pup.

Boston is on ATS slides of 2-9-1 against Western Conference teams, 0-4 on Fridays and 1-4 on the second night of a back-to-back. Portland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home against teams with winning road marks, but it is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 Friday games and 4-0 in its last four against Eastern Conference teams.

The Celtics have topped the total in six of nine against teams with a winning record and four straight against Northwest Division squads, but stayed “under” the number in five straight overall and five straight against Western Conference teams. The Blazers have stayed below the posted number in four of five at home, but gone “over” the number in six of seven on Fridays and five of seven against teams with a winning record.

In this series, the “over” has been the play in six of the last nine overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON

NBA RoundUp For 2/19
By Dan Bebe

Nuggets @ Wizards - Denver by 7 with a total of 208.5. I can tell you right now, this might look like a tap-in, but please do tread cautiously. The Nuggets are coming off a wild overtime win over the Cavaliers, as Carmelo Anthony drained a contested 19-footer with 1.1 left on the clock, and the Nuggets swept the season series from the Cavs, showing once again just how well the Nuggets play against the League's best. But what about how they play against the League's dregs? The Wizards are made up of scrap heap players, and this is a game where everyone, and I mean everyone is going to be looking for a reason to put their life savings on this Nuggets game. Folks are going to be convincing themselves left and right that if the Nuggets can snap the Cavaliers' monster win-streak, surely they can dismantle the Wizards. Well, I wouldn't be so quick to jump to conclusions. Obviously, I'm not going to come out here and tell you to play Washington; can anyone really find a GOOD reason to put money ON the Wizards? Not really. But at the same time, I wouldn't be surprised to see some of Washington's lesser guys, someone like an Andray Blatche, a Randy Foye to potentially step up and have a monster game. The entire basketball community is laughing at Washington right now, and wouldn't they love nothing more than to throw a wrench into the Nuggets' plans? I lean Wizards. I also fear the Nuggets completely forgetting to try on defense, and this one could go Over by the 3rd quarter if the Wizards try to run and get some easy looks at all.

Cavaliers @ Bobcats - Cleveland by 4 with a total of 191.5. I would not be surprised to see Charlotte wake back up for this one. Obviously, the huge concern here is that Lebron takes out some sick aggression on the Bobcats. Still, the Cavs had a monster 13-game winning streak snapped last night, at home, by the Nuggets, so the question we have to ask, and really the only pertinent query is "will the Cavs bounce back on this back-to-back, or will they suffer a 1-game letdown off the huge TNT loss and end of a win streak?" If we can answer that question, we have a play. I suppose my concern with this one is that Charlotte actually came into Cleveland and beat the Cavs back on January 3rd, so I'm not sure if there's any revenge factor involved. I would actually downplay revenge, since extremely good teams like the Cavs have more important things to do than concern themselves with an individual win over a fringe competitor like the Bobcats. I would tend to think that Cleveland does not play a very good game here, but with the way the Bobcats have been playing (0-4 ATS last 4), can we really trust them to come up with a big performance? Clearly, the value is with the Bobcats, so I do lean in their direction, but this is by no means a play, and needs a goodly sum of confirmation of any kind to even find its way into strong lean territory. I'm also somewhat surprised at how low this total is, given how fast the Cavs have been playing lately. I'm inclined to think oddsmakers have a good feel for how the Bobcats are going to play this one, so I'll follow that and keep an eye on the move.

Spurs @ Sixers - San Antonio by 3 with a total of 192.5. This is an interesting game, if only because both teams pose a laundry list of angles, and we have to try to pull off some sort of balancing act. For the Spurs, they are an older team that came out of the All Star Break with a very strong first half, but faded late, and just did barely hang on to beat the Pacers by 3. They've won 2 straight, and 3 of 4, but they're not beating the bad teams by a wide margin (except the flailing Clippers 2 weeks back), and the value with San Antonio really seems to be when they play against the more marquee opponents, when they're getting points or laying very few at home. Still, you can tell the effort is there -- they're trying to surge, and keep a decent seed in the hotly contested West. On the other side, the Sixers came out of the Break with a true sulfur-bomb of a first game, getting blown the heck out, at home, by the visiting Miami Heat. The 105-78 loss puts this one very close to the category of "team coming off blowout home loss." It's certainly not an immediate play, but looking at the Sixers body of work going into the All Star Break, they were definitely playing better, and just haven't seemed focused in their final game before the layoff, and now their first game out of it. If ever there were an opportunity to round back into shape, this would be that time. They have the line value, and if you want to mention the only previous meeting, the Spurs beat the Sixers way back in late November. I don't think that has any real bearing on this game, but San Antonio continues to play middling basketball on the road, and generally doesn't shoot well late in the game. I lean Philly on the side, and I like the Under on the total, and the Spurs just don't score on the road. Still, this total is likely pretty sharp, so go easy there.

Bucks @ Pistons - A Pick with a total of 189.5. Wow, two teams coming off just dismal performances. Does either have any value, whatsoever? Or really, does either have a value edge on the other, is a better question. Milwaukee is coming off a truly embarrassing 28-point home loss at the hands of the Rockets, and they just never really got it together coming out of the All Star break. Detroit had a nice win over Minnesota out of the Break, but followed that up by getting waxed in Orlando the next night. So they, too, are coming off a big loss, and I have to believe the public isn't thrilled with either team right now. Still, Detroit picked up an outright win in Milwaukee early last week, so the Bucks have revenge on their side. My concern here is that the line has been preadjusted for that revenge. It's not as though books are going to need to deflate the line to get money on Milwaukee -- this is a battle of a Bucks team that was playing pretty well before the Break, and a Pistons team that has been getting too much credit all year for no real reason (evidenced by their 22-28 ATS record). This is a tough one. Is Detroit actually going to wake up? They're healthier now than they've been all year, so are they the value play? I almost hate to admit it, but yes, I believe Detroit deserves the slight lean, just based on the fact that they're the true value. Yikes, it just makes me sick to even think it. I also like the Under -- no one is getting out and running with these two teams.

Mavericks @ Magic - Orlando by 6 with a total of 201. The Mavericks might have woken up...might being the key word, of course. In what was really the Mavs' first GOOD game since the 50-point win in New York back on January 24th, Dallas held Phoenix to just 97 points, and picked up a win and a cover at long last. And their reward? Fly to Florida and tackle one of the best in the East. Is the Dallas win a sign of things to come? Are Brendan Haywood and Caron Butler making an immediate impact with their new team? Well, Caron Butler played nice defense; didn't really crush on the offensive end, but he'll be a nice addition over the fragile Josh Howard. In the middle, Haywood was, well, awesome. He picked up 5 blocks on the high-flying Suns, and came 1 rebound short of a double-double. Needless to say, Erick Dampier can kiss playing time goodbye if Haywood continues like that. Having someone with skill and the desire to win patrolling the paint is going to make a huge difference for the Mavs; now we just have to see if Rick Carlisle can work the new bodies into the greater schemes. I still think this might be the time to think about hopping back on the Mavericks bandwagon. They had been AWFUL for so long that to actually see them playing defense was a great sign of ATS wins around the corner. The Magic have been no slouches, either, though. They dominated Detroit in their first game off the Break, and have gone 11-3 SU in their last 14 (but just 7-6-1 ATS). So, the Magic have been winning, but they haven't been killing teams, at least not before Detroit waddled into town. I also like that Orlando has a date with Cleveland on Sunday, and this could, despite the relative marqueeness of the Mavs, be a look-ahead spot. I like the Mavs to potentially win this one outright, and I like the Over -- the Magic have been trying to run a little more, and I think they squeeze both teams just over 100.

Pacers @ Hornets - New Orleans by 4.5 with a total of 204. Sometimes a game comes along where a man just has no real idea what's going to happen, and at least right now, roughly 22 hours before gametime, I can honestly say I don't know what to expect here. That could mean two things, though. Perhaps oddsmakers don't really know what to expect, either, and this line is beatable. Perhaps others have a better feel for the Pacers right now and really have a strong lean on how they're going to perform. For my money, though, this is a game where I just don't like the way it stacks up. The Pacers are off a home game against the Spurs where they woke up late, but couldn't quite get all the way back in a narrow loss. The Hornets got rolled by a better Utah team when they just seemed to run out of gas. It looks like the All Star Break hurt New Orleans, as they were pushing the tempo and Darren Collison was really playing incredible ball, and I just wonder if they can continue to push the ball and get enough of those easy buckets to compete with better teams. That being said, this is a different type of game, where the Hornets are probably better served forcing the Pacers into a more structured type of game. Indiana has been the pits on the road, and New Orleans can't cover at home. This is just ugly all over. No leans.

Bulls @ Wolves - Chicago by 2.5 with a total of 204.5. This is a revenge game for Minnesota, but let's try to see if it matters. I really liked the way the Wolves were playing going into the Break, but coming out, they've been awful. After getting steamrolled in Detroit, Minnesota hit up another winnable game and got creamed late by the Wizards. Now, clearly, the home game will make a sizable difference, as Minnesota is 16-11 ATS at home, and a perfect 6-0 when they're a tiny dog at home, so this is a nice spot for them. Chicago is coming off back-to-back wins over the Knicks, one of them dominant, the other (in New York) featuring a very strong second half. You just have to like the defense Chicago played against the Knicks, locking down in every sense of the word. I just wonder if there might not be a small letdown after that second game, which was, extremely chippy and somewhat unfriendly. I must admit, I'm a little afraid to recommend anything involving the Wolves with the way it appears that they've regressed again, and Chicago is playing solid basketball right now, covering 4 of their last 5 games. Still, this line feels very, very low, and that might be the strongest indicator of all that oddsmakers are expecting a close game. And where the Knicks don't really have the big men to compete with Chicago's suffocating defense, the Wolves can use Jefferson and Love to get buckets inside when Chicago's outstanding perimeter defense ratchets up the intensity. I lean Wolves on the side, and I can't help but think this one might sneak Over the posted total, as Minnesota loves to push the pace.

Raptors @ Nets - This line is OFF. Chris Bosh is expected to miss this game, which is somewhat disconcerting, if just because we might be looking at an "Injured Star Theory" play. However, that tends to work better when the team missing the key component is going against an opposition that gets the adrenaline going. Do the Nets get your blood pumping? Not mine, that's for sure, even though they've been a very nice ATS wager over the last couple weeks. Quietly, Jersey has rattled off an 8-2-1 ATS streak, including back-to-back websiteing out of the All Star Break. Honestly, this might be a spot where we would be in good shape just putting a half unit on the Nets every day until the public catches up to their actual value. That could be another 2-3 weeks, considering how awful the Nets are, and as we all know, the worse a team is, the longer it takes the public to figure out how they're playing. Honestly, the only thing keeping me off the Nets right now is that Bosh is out, and I just don't know who the Raptors are going to turn to, and who is going to get it done for them. Hedo Turkoglu would be the next suspect, I guess, but he just hasn't looked comfortable all year with Toronto. I know I normally never say to bet against the team with the Superstar getting hurt, but I just don't see the other guys in Toronto getting excited about this game. Slight lean to the Nets, and slight lean to the Over, since I think folks still haven't quite caught on to the fact that Jersey can score now.

Heat @ Grizzlies - This line is OFF. This could be fun, and it could be hideous. Time will tell. Miami comes to town on a 4-game winning streak, including 3 completely dominant performances, and then one squeaker in New Jersey. Now, they get to face an inconsistent Grizzlies club, on the road, and try to see if that defense can shut another team down. I mean, we're talking about some ridiculous numbers for Miami's defense. Over this 4-game winning streak, Miami has held their opponents to 66, 76, 78 and 84 points, in that order. I suppose the only fear there is that the numbers has slowly been climbing. The Grizzlies would appear to be ripe to break 90, and then you just have to stop and wonder if Miami can score enough to keep up. This is a clear letdown spot for the Heat, with a game in Dallas looming tomorrow, and the Grizzlies got a HUGE win in Toronto, in overtime, just what the doctor ordered for that team circling the drain. Memphis had lost 5 straight, and I can't help but think that big win might have been the shot of adrenaline they've needed so badly. My concern with backing the Grizz is two-fold. One, they beat Miami by 28 in Florida back in December, a game that I'm sure the Heat remember pretty vividly, considering how they got embarrassed at home. And two, Memphis had a big win over the Lakers 2 weeks ago to snap a 2-game losing streak, and they followed THAT big win up with 5 losses. Still, slight lean to Memphis, and slight lean to the Under, since I think both teams are game for a grudge-match.

Hawks @ Suns - Phoenix by 3.5 with a total of 212.5. This should be a fun one. The Suns come home off what has become something of a rare road loss, at the hands of the might-be-ending-their-struggles Dallas Mavericks. The Hawks, meanwhile, continue a 4-game road trip that began with an easy 18-point win over the Clippers, and continues through Golden State and Utah. Looking ahead, we should definitely look for some value in their upcoming games, but let's see what we can find in this one. The Hawks have been bouncing between 2-3 very good games, and 2-3 very bad ones. It makes them both extremely predictable, but also extremely volatile, as a good call on the Hawks can result in a no-sweat winner, and a bad call on the Hawks can mean you've thrown in the towel by halftime. Which will this game be? I have to admit, I'm a little concerned about the letdown in Phoenix now that the trade deadline has come and gone. Will Amare regress, or will he play his best basketball all season? There are a ton of unanswered questions that this game will go a long way in answering, and that's a huge reason why I feel watching this game might be the best bet. However, that solution doesn't work for everyone, so based on Atlanta's 1-point win in Georgia, and the Hawks potential fallback after the easy win over the Clippers, I lean Suns on the side. I also think that if the Suns are indeed dictating the tempo, you have to at least take a peek at the Over, but I'm not completely sold on either total play.

Jazz @ Warriors - Utah by 6 with a total of 218.5. Can anyone really bet against Utah right now? I mean, I know that's absolutely the squarest way possible to start this write-up, but think about it. Utah has a day off before heading to Portland, so it's not like this is a look-ahead spot, and they're coming off a nice win in New Orleans, so it's not really a letdown spot either. It's not the end of a road trip, and they're not on short rest. Basically, this line is set to get split money, and it likely will, but while the value might be on the Golden State side, I just don't trust that the Warriors can throw a hit parade like the one they launched against the Kings. Utah is better defensively, and more importantly, they're betting offensively, meaning Golden State is going to have to inbound the ball, and that, in effect, slows them down. I'll tell you what's also amazing is that these two teams haven't played yet this season. That, to me, means a PASS, and we can get a ton of value the next time they meet, or potentially the meeting after that one. I think the red hot play of the Jazz butting heads with the value of the Warriors is enough to keep me off the side, but I suppose if I had to pick, I'd lean to the squareness, the Jazz. On the total, Utah has been flexing some defensive muscle lately, and honestly, I don't know where it came from, but I like the Under, especially off that Warriors 130-point effort.

Celtics @ Blazers - This line is OFF. This is a game I'm going to be watching very closely, or a line I'll be watching I suppose. The Celtics are coming off a high-intensity game with the Lakers on TNT, a hideous 4th quarter that got us a winner on the Under, and a game that started (and ended) extra late, courtesy of the Cavs-Nuggets early game going into overtime, and now the Celts have to try to get fired back up for this game in Portland? We saw Boston on something of a look-ahead in Sacramento the game BEFORE playing the Lakers, only winning that game because Sactown missed 6 free throws down the stretch, and now we have to try to determine if they're going to suffer a similar letdown the day after. Before we get too carried away, though, the Celtics did cover their game after playing the Lakers a few weeks back, going into Washington and playing a lockdown 4th quarter to get the cover, despite losing for most of that game. Still, with the way Boston played early against the Lakers, you almost get the feeling they "shot their wad" early, and despite getting the win, this team looked tired. Their jumpshots went cold, clanking off every corner of the rim, and only collecting points on a Kendrick Perkins tip-slam. Portland is going to get Marcus Camby for this game (he's listed as questionable, but if he has his goods from LA, he should play), and Brandon Roy might return, as well. This is a monster fanfare game in Portland, and the Blazers are a great team in highly publicized games. Portland lost to Boston 4 weeks ago on the road, so this is a revenge game, and I look forward to seeing where this line opens. I lean Portland, no lean on the total until we learn more about Brandon Roy.

Trend Report - Friday
By Ed Meyer

Nuggets at Wizards - The Nuggets are 8-0-1 ATS (9.4 ppg) since January 20, 2006 with at most one day of rest after a win in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS (-9.5 ppg) since January 17, 2005 as a dog with at most one day of rest off a win as a home favorite in which they trailed by 10+ points.

Cavaliers at Bobcats - The Cavaliers are 0-10 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since December 17, 1999 on the road after a loss in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The League is 10-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since November 19, 2008 as a road favorite off a loss of four points or fewer at home in which they trailed by double digits.

Spurs at Sixers - The Spurs are 8-0 ATS (12.2 ppg) since March 02, 2008 on the road off a win in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Sixers are 0-7 ATS (-4.8 ppg) since October 31, 2003 with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.

Heat at Grizzlies - The Heat are 8-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since January 16, 2004 on the road after playing on the road when their opponent is off an overtime game. The Grizzlies are 6-0-1 ATS (9.2 ppg) since February 06, 2004 at home with at least one day of rest after a road win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

Pacers at Hornets - The League is 0-6-1 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 06, 2007 on the road after a loss in which they allowed a shooting percentage at least 10 percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Hornets are 9-0-1 ATS (11.2 ppg) since March 13, 1996 at home after a loss in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line.

Mavericks at Magic - The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since April 10, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a double digit home win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.

Raptors at Nets - The Raptors are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since April 05, 2008 on the road with at most one day of rest after a home loss in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Nets are 0-8 ATS (-11.7 ppg) since November 02, 2007 at home after a game at home in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Nets are 0-6 ATS (-14.3 ppg) since February 12, 2008 when they covered by double digits two games straight.

Bucks at Pistons - The Bucks are 0-7 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since January 21, 2008 after a double digit home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.

Bulls at Timberwolves - The Timberwolves are 0-9 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since November 27, 1996 as a home dog with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Timberwolves are 0-8 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since December 20, 2008 as a home dog when they lost and failed to covered as an underdog in each of their last two games. The Timberwolves are 0-6 ATS (-7.0 ppg) since November 06, 2007 at home with at least one day of rest after a loss in which less than 40% of their baskets were assisted.

Hawks at Suns - The Hawks are 7-0 ATS (7.6 ppg) since February 25, 2000 on the road with at most one day of rest after a road win in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Suns are 0-7 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since March 13, 2004 at home when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they led by double digits.

Celtics at Trailblazers - The Celtics are 9-0 ATS (14.7 ppg) since December 08, 2003 when playing the second of back-to-back road games after winning the first as a dog. The Trailblazers are 9-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since January 22, 2002 at home after a win against the Clippers. The Trailblazers are 7-0 ATS (14.1 ppg) since April 20, 1997 as a home dog when they covered by double digits two games straight.

Jazz at Warriors - The Jazz are 0-7-1 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since May 04, 2008 on the road when the OU line is at least fifteen points higher than it was last game. The Jazz are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since March 10, 2002 as a road favorite with at least one day of rest after a game in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Warriors are 8-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since March 04, 2003 at home after a win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.

Tips and Trends

Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic

Mavericks: Dallas is coming into this contest tonight off a nice double digit SU win over the Suns. Dallas is also excited with the players they acquired in a blockbuster deal just a few days ago. Dallas acquired both F Caron Butler and C Brendan Haywood for the stretch run into the playoffs this year. Butler in particular has played well against the Magic, averaging 27 PTS in 2 games against the Magic as a member of the Wizards. Haywood has also been productive this season against the Magic, averaging 11.5 PPG and 12.5 RPG over 2 games. F Dirk Nowitzki is still the man for Dallas, averaging a team high 24.7 PPG this season. The Mavericks are attempting to become a better defensive team, as they've allowed more than 100 PTS in 8 of their past 10 games. Dallas is 33-21 SU this season, leading the Southwest division. The Mavericks are 17-12 SU and 16-13 ATS on the road this season. The Mavericks are 7-7 ATS as the listed underdog this season.

Mavs are 0-11 ATS last 11 games following an ATS win.

Key Injuries - C Erick Dampier (finger) is out.
F Tim Thomas (personal) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 99 (SIDE of the Day)

Magic (-6, O/U 201): Orlando has alternated SU wins and losses over their past 7 games. Luckily, they are in a position to be able to get away with mediocrity. The Magic have played great overall this season, as they are 37-18 SU on the season. The Magic have the 3rd best record in the NBA and lead the Southeast division. Orlando has struggled though against Dallas of late, losing 5 of their past 6 meetings SU. The Magic are 21-5 SU and 14-12 ATS at home this season. Orlando is 18-17 ATS as a single digit favorite this season, including 7-7 ATS at home in this specific scenario. The Magic are 11-3 SU in their past 14 games, with their offense playing a vital role in their success. The Magic average 101.4 PPG this season, 11th most in the NBA. They have went over that point total in each of their past 4 games. C Dwight Howard is 1 of 4 players averaging double digits in PTS for Orlando this season. Howard averages a team high 18.2 PPG and an NBA high 13.4 RPG this season.

Magic is 5-2 ATS last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 12-4 last 16 games as a favorite.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 101

Atlanta Hawks at Phoenix Suns

Hawks: Atlanta beat Phoenix just over 1 month ago, and they would love a similar ending tonight. Atlanta has struggled playing in Phoenix, as they're 2-14 SU in their past 16 games there. Atlanta is not only trying to break that streak, but they are also looking to win 3 straight road games SU for the 1st time this season. The Hawks are 34-18 SU this season, the 6th best record in the NBA. The Hawks are 13-12 SU and 15-10 ATS on the road this season. Atlanta is 7-5 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Hawks have been winning with defense of late, not allowing any of their past 5 opponents to score more than 97 PTS. For the season, the Hawks only allow 96.9 PPG, the 11th fewest in the NBA. Offensively, all 5 starters average double digits in PTS for the Hawks. Atlanta averages 101.7 PPG, 8th best in the NBA. G Joe Johnson leads the Hawks in both scoring and assists, averaging 21.5 PPG and 4.6 APG this season. All Star C Al Horford is averaging
13.7 PPG and a team high 9.3 RPG for the year.

Hawks are 2-9 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog up to 4.5 points.
Over is 4-0-1 last 5 vs. Western Conference.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 111

Suns (-3.5, O/U 212.5): Phoenix is 6-2 SU in their past 8 games, scoring at least 109 PTS in each of their wins. Offense is everything to Phoenix, as they lead the entire NBA with 109.6 PPG this season. Phoenix ranks in the top 5 in nearly every offensive statistical category in the NBA this season. The Suns are 32-23 SU this season, placing them 7th in the Western Conference playoff chase. The Suns are 18-7 SU and 13-12 ATS at home this season. Phoenix is 14-15 ATS as a single digit favorite, including 7-9 ATS at home in this specific scenario. The Suns have had the same exact result both SU and ATS over their past 10 games. F Amar'e Stoudemire leads the Suns in scoring with 21.4 PPG this season, thanks to a shooting percentage of 55%. Stoudemire no longer has to deal with constant trade rumors, as the trading deadline has passed. PG Steve Nash is having another MVP caliber season, averaging 17.9 PPG and 11.2 APG this season. All 5 starters average double digits this season for the Suns.

Suns are 5-0 ATS last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 last 6 overall.

Key Injuries - G Leandro Barbosa (wrist) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 116 (OVER - Total of the Day)