NBA News and Notes Friday 2/25

Thunder and Magic in marquee NBA battle
By: Barry Daniels

The Northwest Division-leading Oklahoma City Thunder will attempt to persevere through a tough part of their schedule Friday night when they travel to Orlando for a battle with a Magic squad that is coming off an embarrassing home loss to Sacramento.

The overnight line for this 5:00 p.m. (PT) matchup has Orlando installed as a six-point home favorite, with the total set at 206.

This is the middle game in a trio of tough opponents for Oklahoma City. The Thunder played the Spurs prior to this game with the Magic, and must meet the defending champion Lakers in their next game.

Oklahoma City started the tough schedule Wednesday at San Antonio by suffering a heartbreaking 109-105 setback to the Spurs as a seven-point road underdog. The loss lowered Oklahoma City’s road ledger to 16-12, but the cover raised its road spread record to 14-14.

The combined 214 points soared above the 205 ½-point closing total, leaving the ‘over’ a league-leading 34-22 in the Thunder’s first 56 overall encounters.

Kevin Durant scored 30 points and Russell Westbrook added 25 for Oklahoma City in a losing effort. The Thunder rallied from an eight-point fourth-quarter deficit to take a two-point lead, but managed just one basket in the final five minutes.

Oklahoma City has now scored 100 points or more in eight of its last 10 games. That has helped solidify an offense that ranks fifth in the league with an average of 104.8 PPG. Much of that offensive success has occurred at the free-throw line where the Thunder are shooting a league-leading 82.9 percent.

Unfortunately, Scott Brooks’ troops have also allowed 100 points or more in six of their last 10 games. That slippage has lowered the Thunder’s defense to 20th at 102.3 PPG.

Orlando should not be a good mood after coming off Wednesday’s embarrassing 111-105 loss to the lowly Sacramento Kings as a 14½-point home favorite. The loss lowered Orlando’s home ledger to 21-9 SU and 15-15 ATS.

The combined 216 points catapulted ‘over’ the 206-point closing total, ending a string of seven straight ‘under’ games for the Magic. Nevertheless, the ‘under’ is still 31-25-2 in Orlando’s first 58 overall efforts and 17-12-1 in its first 30 home dates.

Dwight Howard led the Magic with 31 points and 17 rebounds, while Hedo Turkoglu scored 19 points and Jameer Nelson chipped in with 15. Orlando blew a seven-point fourth-quarter lead and was outscored in the final stanza, 32-21.

Unlike the Thunder, the Magic do most of their good work on the defensive end. Orlando ranks sixth in the league defensively by yielding an average of 94.2 points per game. The club is allowing the opposition to shoot just 44.2 percent from the field, which ranks fifth.

Orlando and Oklahoma City have met once this season (Jan. 13), with the Thunder outlasting the Magic as 1 ½-point home underdogs, 125-124. Though the combined 249 points soared ‘over’ the closing total, the ‘under’ is still 10-4 in the last 14 series meetings.

Durant scored 36 points, including the winning basket with eight seconds remaining in the game. Westbrook had 32 points, 10 rebounds and 13 assists. Nenad Krstic added 16 points and 11 rebounds for Oklahoma City, which shot 56.4 percent from the field.

Howard led the Magic with 39 points and 18 rebounds, while Jason Richardson and J.J. Reddick added 19 and 18 points respectively.

Oklahoma City out-rebounded the Magic, 42-36, and had a 24-22 edge in the assist column. Both teams attempted 37 free throws, with the Magic making 28 and the Thunder connecting on 30.

The Thunder will return home Sunday for a meeting against the defending champion Lakers. The Magic will continue their seven-game homestand with a Sunday match against the Charlotte Bobcats.

NBA RoundUp for 2/25
by Dan Bebe

Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers with a total of N/A
A rare game where we're not even thinking about trades. The Pistons, somehow, move into the stretch run with the same craptacular pieces they had a week ago, unable to jettison the likes of Rip Hamilton, and unable to get any sort of draft pick compensation for the other veterans that want out. What a mess. Interestingly, Philadelphia actually lost to Detroit in Motown in early January, so the Sixers are the slightly more motivated team, though with Detroit, it's nearly impossible to know when they're going to care. I'll be very curious to see where this line comes out, but if it's in that medium window (6-7 points), I might be inclined to glance at Philly. The bigger picture, for me, is that Detroit plays its 4th in 5 nights tomorrow, so maybe we ought to just wait and fade them then. Tiny lean to PHILLY and the OVER.

Sacramento Kings @ Charlotte Bobcats (-6.5) with a total of 201
Both teams made some moves heading into the deadline, though Charlotte's was, arguably, the bigger of the two. The Bobcats have parted ways with Gerald Wallace, presumably freeing up playing time for Gerald Henderson (there's a pattern in there...), but also trying to save a few bucks. The Kings exchanged Carl Landry for Marcus Thornton, and add yet another wing player to a roster of misfits that somehow beat Orlando in a tough spot. And really, I can't help but think that the Kings are better equipped to deal with the trades. The problem, as I see it, is that the lack of Tyreke Evans is going to catch up with Sacramento at some point, and it's difficult to pinpoint exactly when that will happen. For now, the Kings are the team on revenge, they play the final game of a long road trip tomorrow and the 4th in 5 nights, so tonight feels like a better effort and tomorrow, weaker. Lean to SACTOWN and the UNDER.

Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers (-5.5) with a total of 207.5
Indiana nearly had a deal in place to collect the weedy services of O.J. Mayo, but that one fell through at the last moment, so the Pacers will just have to play it out. Mike Dunleavy is hurt, which means Brandon Rush and Paul George will need to add a few minutes (and some production) to the ledger. But the team, overall, is still playing decent basketball. They escaped a tight one with Detroit to start the 2nd half with 2 wins over terrible teams, and now they get to pick on a reeling Jazz club that has lost 5 in a row, and every time it looks like they've bottomed out, things get worse. The Jazz are almost unbackable right now, though it's also pretty clear that this line is giving Utah zero respect. That combination of factors (inflated line, but a terrible team) makes betting the side dicey. Utah should be adding Devis Harris, so maybe they play a little better than they did in Dallas, but I don't think things are getting better overnight, and there aren't any huge angles (besides maybe some slight revenge for Indiana). NEARLY a pass on the side, maybe the tiniest of leans to INDY, and totals look at the UNDER.

Phoenix Suns (-3.5) @ Toronto Raptors with a total of 213
Quietly, and we're talking barely a peep, the Toronto Raptors have covered 3 of 4, winning 2 of those games. Are the Raptors coming out of their season long funk? I doubt it, but even awful teams have a week or two where they play a little better. The shots fall and everything gets easier, and that might be what we're seeing here. Of course, the wheels can come off at a moment's notice, and because Toronto doesn't play any defense, the moment the jumpers start rattling out, the 20 points losses creep back into play. Amazingly, these teams haven't played since the 2009 calendar year, so no revenge angles, but in terms of scheduling, this is Phoenix's first game of a 6-game road trip. The Suns haven't played many road games lately, but they did win in Utah and in Golden State, so we know they're capable. They also picked up Aaron Brooks for Goran Dragic to, maybe, add a little more scoring punch off the bench. It's square, but Phoenix is actually in the better spot, trying to get the roadie off on the good foot. Lean to SUNS and the UNDER.

Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat (-15) with a total of 203.5
How do you know when things have gotten bad? When you're a 15-point underdog and the favorite is the team playing the TNT back-to-back. Yes, Miami comes home from an extremely hard-fought game in Chicago, loses an hour to the time difference off a relatively long flight (not painfully long, but not a 45 minute jaunt, either), and the Heat are still a 15-point chalk. I hate this game. Flat out. I can't back the Heat laying this kind of number, even if they could win by 30, and I struggle to find a good reason to back the Wiz off two embarrassing post-Break losses. The only factor that pushes me even the slightest bit towards Washington is that John Wall apparently called his teammates out after the butt-kicking they took in Philly, and after a yelling match between McGee and an assistant coach, Washington can't really play any worse. Famous last words? Small lean to WIZARDS and the UNDER.

New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers with a total of N/A
It's B-Diddy time in Cleveland! Or wait...maybe Melo is the bigger news between these two teams. However you shake it out, there has been some serious personnel movement prior to this game. The Knicks sold the farm for Anthony, and they'll be looking to rely even more heavily on starters, and the Cavs got rid of one of their larger contracts, picking up an equally disgusting contract (in Davis) as well as a draft pick. The Cavs also lost Jamario Moon, who was playing well, but won't really factor into how this one turns out. My opinion, simply put, is that New York's lines are going to be inflated for a couple weeks, and if we can find the right time to fade them, we can cash in. This game has some of the makings of a fade spot, but the fact that Cleveland actually beat the Knicks once this year makes me wonder if that gives the Cavs confidence or upsets the Knicks. Something tells me that, because the Knicks are about 40% different, it actually works in Cleveland's favor. If we can get 7-8 points, it might be worth a shot. In terms of the total, the last game hit 211 right on the nose, so oddsmakers might tip their hand a tad... Lean to the CAVS and WAIT AND SEE on the total.

New Orleans Hornets (-5.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 195
This is a hard game to handicap, because, simply put, the situational angle at play is extremely rare. You don't often see a playoff team (in this case, the Hornets), 9 games over 500, and even with the recent cold spell (due to Okafor's injury) solidly in position to get a decent seed, LOSE TWICE to a team with a grand total of 13 wins on the season. But yet, here we are. Normally, you'd figure a double revenge game for New Orleans would push me toward the Hornets, but here, I'm not so sure. This has a number of the tell-tale signs of a team that just doesn't match up well against the other. The Hornets prefer to slow it down and grind it out, and the Wolves seem to be able to, somehow, power through that defense. Kevin Love's rebounding is always a factor, but more than that, the Hornets haven't shot the ball well against Minny, and the Wolves have been extremely proficient from 3-point land against the Hornets. That might not continue, but then, it might not need to, since the Wolves are getting 5.5 points. Mind you, the Hornets are a perfect goose-egg (0-5 ATS) as a medium road favorite. Surprising lean to the WOLVES and less surprising lean to the UNDER.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Orlando Magic (-5.5) with a total of 207
First, this line jumped to 7 after the announcement of the Jeff Green trade, so we can go ahead and use 7 as the working number. And that, to me, seems like an awful lot. I'll be curious to see how the betting public reacts to the Thunder's trade because, on paper, I don't think it hurts them all that much. Green is a decent piece, if only because he's versatile, but the Thunder, when they get all their new equipment, will have some true size in the paint, some bodies that can push people around not named Krstic or Collison. The reasons to be afraid of backing the Thunder? I can think of 3. The line is eerily high, the Magic are on a bounceback game after getting upset by the Kings (Dwight Howard told his teammates to stop playing if they're not going to care), and the Thunder have a pretty huge revenge game coming up, at home, against the Lakeshow. It's probably not enough to push me all the way over to a Magic lean, but it's enough to keep me off O-K-C. Microscopic MAGIC lean, I guess - please don't ask me for more info, it's a weak lean - and a totals lean to the UNDER, since I can see the Magic playing angry.

New Jersey Nets @ San Antonio Spurs (-11.5) with a total of 193
Does this line seem oddly low to anyone else? These teams played in Jersey just 10 days ago (give or take a day), and the Spurs clobbered the Nets as a 7.5-point road favorite. So, without personnel moves, you could have reasonably expected the Spurs to open as a 13.5-point home fave. Then, factor in the notion that the few remaining yahoos that had the stones to bet Jersey in that meeting on Valentine's Day probably won't this time around, and the line should have moved up a hair higher. What I'm gathering from all this is that oddsmakers are telling us Deron Williams is worth 2.5 to 3 points over the combination of Devin Harris and Derrick Favors. And maybe, long term, he is. But in the short term, Williams doesn't know the Nets offense - if we can call it that - and the disjointed nature of working a superstar into a team that has been festering in the cellar for a few years can lead to some missed covers. I admit, though, I'm leery of the number. Still, revenge or not, I can't ignore the overadjustment - lean to the SPURS (I know, what??) and the UNDER.

Atlanta Hawks @ Golden State Warriors (-2.5) with a total of 199
I said it on the podcast - I think ANY trade the Hawks made would have been a good one. All we've been hearing out of the Atlanta camp is that the team is stagnating, the same guys in the locker room still unable to clear the hump and get into the truly elite. And this, at least, shakes things up a tiny bit. Kirk Hinrich will bring some defense to the point guard spot, and an ability to do something besides shoot the 3, because, let's fade it, Bibby's fat ass wasn't good for much else. Does this trade really make the Hawks any better? Not really, but maybe it wakes them up. All that said, I'm having a whale of a time finding a reason to actually back the Hawks - they're nearing the end of a long road trip, they've lost 3 straight by double digits, and the Warriors are the team on revenge in this matchup. The Hawks are going to surprise someone eventually, but I don't want to be that bonehead that backs them every day for 2 weeks until they finally play a good game. Small lean to ATLANTA and totals lean to the UNDER.

Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers (-5.5) with a total of 205
This handicap starts and ends with how Denver looks against Boston. If the Nuggets come out and play a great game on TNT, I believe they'll collapse in this game with Portland, exhausted from the emotional drain and from the travel. If Denver looks awful against Boston, this line will probably move up, and the value will get sucked out. If Denver plays a perfectly middle-of-the-road game against Boston, they'll probably come back with a similar, if slightly lesser performance in Portland. Outside of the TNT game, this series has been dominated by the home team, with Denver taking down Portland twice at the Pepsi Center, and the Blazers winning (and barely covering) at the Rose Garden. I suppose we should just figure we'll see more of the same. It's not clear if Portland's newly minted Gerald will be around just yet, but I do have an early expectation of a lean to PORTLAND and the UNDER.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers with a total of N/A
This is another confusing game to handicap since, for our purposes, we're trying to decide if this is the Clippers' final game of an 11-game road trip, or if it qualifies as the first game back home. That is to say, what truly makes that "first game home" such a soft spot? Is it family obligations? Is it that the team just feels an emotional letdown finally getting back into the normal practice facility and knowing they won't have to take a long flight for a bit? Either way, the Clippers aren't in a good spot. They're either in an exhausted road spot or a sluggish home spot, and the Lakers are a team playing with momentum and purpose. So, we know we'd prefer to back the Lakers, but with the Clippers losing Baron Davis and picking up Mo Williams (keeping this line off), how much will oddsmakers factor the home court? It's tough to get a strong opinion without a line, but my belief is that oddsmakers only adjust by 1.5 or 2 for these fake "road" games in LA. We may see a line near 10, as a result, and that's just about high enough to ruin my interest in the Lakers. Either way, I can safely say I don't like the Clippers here, so lean to the MAMBAS and the UNDER.

Tips and Trends

Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic

THUNDER: With Carmelo Anthony out of Denver, the Northwest Division appears to be the Thunder's division to lose. Oklahoma City made a trade of their own yesterday, as they traded away F Jeff Green for C Kendrick Perkins. Oklahoma City is 36-20 SU and 29-27 ATS overall this year, placing them 4th in the Western Conference standings. The Thunder are 16-12 SU and 14-14 ATS in road games this season. Oklahoma City is 10-6 ATS as the listed underdog this year, including 3-1 ATS as a road underdog between 6.5 and 9 PTS. F Kevin Durant is the NBA's leading scorer, as he's averaging 28.8 PPG. PG Russell Westbrook is averaging 22.1 PPG and a team high 8.5 APG this year. The Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. Oklahoma City is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog between 5 and 10.5 points. The Thunder are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games against the NBA Southeast. Oklahoma City is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 Friday games. The Thunder are 37-16 ATS in their last 53 games following a SU loss. Oklahoma City is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Thunder are 4-1 ATS last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Under is 10-2 last 12 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - None Reported.

Projected Score: 97

MAGIC: (-7, O/U 206.5) Orlando is currently in 4th place in the Eastern Conference, thanks to a 36-22 SU and 26-31-1 ATS record this season. The Magic are primed for a big 2nd half of the year, considering the trade that netted new players is in the past. The Magic are 21-9 SU and 15-15 ATS in home games this year. Orlando is 3-5 ATS as a home favorite between 6.5 and 9 PTS this season. The Magic are looking for a good defensive performance tonight, as they allowed Oklahoma City to score 125 PTS in a 1 point SU defeat earlier this year. Orlando is allowing just 94.2 PPG this year, the 6th fewest in the NBA. C Dwight Howard is having another dominant season, as he's averaging Magic highs of 23 PPG and 13.9 RPG. The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Orlando is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 Friday games. The Magic are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Orlando is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against the NBA Northwest.

Magic are 5-2 ATS last 7 games as a favorite.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games overall.

Key Injuries - None Reported.

Projected Score: 102 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

Denver Nuggets at Portland Trailblazers

NUGGETS: Denver just might be a better team without Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups. As Nuggets fans wake up today, that is the water cooler topic for today. The Nuggets appear to be revitalized since the trade, as they no longer have to answer trade rumor after trade rumor. The Nuggets are 33-25 SU and 25-30-3 ATS overall this year. Denver is currently in 6th place in the Western Conference. A playoff berth would be a huge accomplishment for this team considering all the turmoil they have gone thru this year. Denver is 10-18 SU and 13-15 ATS in road games this season. The Nuggets are 10-11 ATS as the listed underdog this year. PG Ty Lawson will be counted on in a much bigger role for the rest of the year, and he appears to be up to the challenge. Lawson has been a bright spot for Denver this year, as he's averaging 10.6 and 3.8 APG this year, figures that are bound to go up with added playing time. The Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the NBA Northwest. Denver is 8-17-3 ATS in their last 28 games as a road underdog. The Nuggets are 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 games playing without rest. Denver is 4-15-3 ATS in their last 22 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.

Nuggets are 7-20 ATS last 27 Friday games.
Over is 8-2 last 10 road games.

Key Injuries - C Timofey Mozgov (trade) is probable.

Projected Score: 95

TRAILBLAZERS: (-6.5, O/U 205) Portland has been dominated in their last 2 meetings with Denver, both SU and ATS. Tonight, the Blazers will look to move past their 4th quarter debacle against the Lakers in their last game. Portland is playing some of their best basketball of the season, and they get to play the Nuggets on the back end of consecutive games. The Blazers are 32-25 SU and 28-26-3 ATS overall this season. Portland is 19-8 SU and 15-11 ATS in home games this year. The Blazers are 18-12 ATS as the listed favorite overall this year. Portland is also a profitable 3-2 ATS as a home favorite between 6.5 and 9 PTS this season. F LaMarcus Aldridge is playing like one of the 10 best players in the NBA of late, as he's simply carrying Portland. Aldridge is averaging a team high 22.4 PPG this year, along with 9 RPG. G Brandon Roy is slowly rounding into shape, and he's looking to add to his 16.1 PPG this season down the stretch. The Trail Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Portland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the NBA Northwest. The Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite between 5 and 10.5 points.

Trailblazers are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 7-3 last 10 games against a team with a winning SU record.

Key Injuries - C Marcus Camby (knee) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 108 (SIDE of the Day)

Friday NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers

The Friday night NBA card is loaded with 12 games as teams are gearing up for the stretch run of the season. The only club that hasn't taken the court since the All-Star Break is the Nets, who picked up All-Star point guard Deron Williams from the Jazz. New Jersey heads to the Alamo to take on the re-hot Spurs, while the Thunder and Magic hook up in Orlando. We'll start at Conseco Fieldhouse with Williams' former squad taking on the surging Pacers.

Jazz at Pacers

The Devin Harris era begins in Utah as the Jazz continue a three-game road swing in Indiana against the revitalized Pacers. The Jazz looks to stay alive in the Western Conference playoffs despite five consecutive losses following Wednesday's 118-99 setback at Dallas. To make matters worse, Utah is 5-13 ATS the last 18 games to fall to the ninth spot in the West.

The Pacers, meanwhile, are sitting in eighth place inside the Eastern Conference, even though Indiana is four games under .500 at 26-30. Since the arrival of Frank Vogel on the sidelines, the Pacers have won nine of 12, including Wednesday's last-season triumph over the Pistons. Indiana failed to cover as eight-point favorites in a 102-101 victory, the 12th straight game the Pacers have eclipsed the 100-point mark.

The Jazz knocked off the Pacers in Salt Lake City, 110-88 as 7 ½-point favorites on December 1. That was the third game of a four-game road swing for Indiana, who played with no rest after winning at Sacramento the night before. Not only is Utah still picking up the pieces of Williams and Jerry Sloan departing over the last month, the Jazz has failed to cover seven of their last 10 games as a road underdog.

Thunder at Magic

Oklahoma City wasn't expected to be a mover at Thursday's trade deadline, but the Thunder dealt Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic to the Celtics in exchange for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson. The Northwest Division leaders make the trip to central Florida to battle an Orlando club that disappeared in the fourth quarter of a shocking 111-105 home setback to Sacramento as 14-point 'chalk.'

The Magic is just 11-10 since a nine-game winning streak from Christmas through the early part of January. The defensive lapse against a Kings' squad playing without leading scorer Tyreke Evans was beyond inexcusable, as Sacramento became the first team to bust 100 points against Orlando in the last eight games. The 111-spot allowed on Wednesday also was the first 'over' in the previous eight contests for Stan Van Gundy's team, while Orlando is 5-2 to the 'under' the last seven games at Amway Center.

The Thunder managed a cover for the first time in six tries against San Antonio in Wednesday's 109-105 loss as seven-point underdogs. OKC is riding a three-game ATS winning streak, but is 2-3 ATS without Green this season. The two victories came at Boston and Milwaukee as 'dogs, while Kevin Durant missed the games as well with a knee injury.

Nets at Spurs

San Antonio has won 19 straight games at the AT&T Center as the Spurs survived a late rally against the Thunder on Wednesday. The Nets start a Texas two-step with games at San Antonio on Friday and Houston on Saturday. There is plenty of anticipation for New Jersey with Williams, the former All-Star guard, making his debut in a Nets' uniform.

Williams should give a boost to a New Jersey squad averaging just 92.4 ppg, while the Nets have scored less than 100 points in seven of the last eight games. New Jersey isn't helping backers with a 2-6 ATS mark the previous eight contests, while going 6-2 to the 'under' in the last eight away games. In seven of those road games, the Nets have been limited to 94 points or less, including losses to the Celtics, Blazers, and Lakers.

The Spurs are a runaway train at 47-10, while being the top ATS club in the league at 34-21-2. San Antonio failed to cover against Oklahoma City, marking the second consecutive ATS loss after last Thursday's setback at Chicago. The Spurs haven't suffered back-to-back ATS defeats since January 9, when San Antonio didn't cash as 11 ½-point favorites in a three-point win over Minnesota. Gregg Popovich's team looks to beat the Nets for the ninth straight time at home, while beating New Jersey by double-digits six times in this span.

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