NBA News and Notes Friday 2/26

Friday Game of the Day
By ASA

Dallas (37-21 SU, 24-34 ATS) at Atlanta (36-20 SU, 34-22 ATS)

Not-so Hotlanta

Atlanta had four straight road games post-All Star break. The Hawks were 1-2 SU before getting a huge win at Utah to close out their mini road trip and finish 2-2. Then they returned home on Wednesday night to face the last place T-Wolves of Minnesota and won 98-92. It wasn’t a dominating performance by any means, but it was a victory nonetheless, and it was their 22nd home win in 28 chances this season and 10th in their last 12.

“We were OK,” said Hawks guard Joe Johnson said after the win. “It was nothing to really write home about.”

Despite the win, Atlanta has had their share of struggles lately. They are averaging just 95.5 PPG the last six games (101.4 season average) and sixth man of the year candidate Jamal Crawford has struggled mightily since returning from a shoulder injury.

Crawford was 0-for-7 and had just one point in their victory over Minnesota. He is now 18-of-54 (33.3 percent) and is averaging just 11.6 PPG (-5.6 off his season average) since returning from a sore left shoulder Feb. 17.

“It’s all right,” Crawford said about his shoulder. “It’s OK. I’m out there playing, so there are no excuses.”

New Look Dallas

Dallas is coming off of arguably its biggest win of the season after Wednesday night’s 101-96 home victory over the Lakers. It was the Mavs’ fifth consecutive victory after losing six of their previous eight games.

Last night’s game had a playoff-like atmosphere with 24 lead changes and eight ties and the win gave Dallas some momentum as they enter the “home-stretch” of their schedule. "It reinforces what we're doing and reinforces the idea of hard play and commitment to defense," coach Rick Carlisle said. "It's a great win. Too much will be made of it, probably. But we just continue to build on things."

The Mavs were one of the big winners at the NBA trade deadline. They acquired Brendan Haywood, DeShawn Stevenson, and Caron Butler in a trade with the Wizards and each player has been impressive in their early action with their new team. Butler and Haywood, combined, are averaging 25.6 PPG and 16 RPG in their first six games with the Mavs while Haywood is getting recognized in a different way.

Carlisle praised Stevenson for his play against Los Angeles: "I thought the key guy in the game was probably Stevenson, with the way he started the game for us. He gave us great defense on Bryant. Anytime he was in there, he held his position strong. He played within what we were doing." Butler missed last night’s game against the Lakers because of an unexpected reaction to medication, but he will be back for the match-up with Atlanta.

Head-to-Head

Atlanta won the earlier meeting between these two back in early December. It was a relatively ugly game for both offenses as each team shot below 38% and both were a combined 10-37 from three-point range. The Hawks had seven fewer turnovers and four more rebounds and that was enough to get the 80-75 victory @Dallas. Atlanta has won two straight home match-ups with the Mavericks, holding the Mavs to just 90.5 PPG.

The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two and the Mavs are just 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Atlanta.

Key Statistical Information

PPG
Dallas: +2.0
Atlanta: +4.5

FG%
Dallas: +0.1
Atlanta: +0.2

Rebounding
Dallas: -0.5
Atlanta: -0.9

Trends

Dallas is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. Eastern Conference and, more specifically, 2-7 ATS in their last nine vs. NBA Southeast. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. NBA Southwest but is just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win.

Dallas (37-21, 24-34 ATS) at Atlanta (36-20, 34-22 ATS)

The Mavericks try to run their winning streak to six when they visit Philips Arena for a showdown with the Hawks.

After losing its first game after the All-Star break, Dallas has rattled off five straight wins (3-2 ATS), including a 101-96 victory over the Lakers on Wednesday, cashing as a 1½-point home favorite. Dirk Nowitzki led the charge for the Mavericks with 31 points and nine rebounds as they beat Los Angeles without the services of newcomer Caron Butler, who missed the contest with an illness.

Atlanta comes in riding a two-game winning streak (1-1 ATS) after losing three of four (SU and ATS). The Hawks edged the Timberwolves on Wednesday 98-92, coming up well short as 12-point home favorites. Josh Smith had a huge game for the Hawks with 27 points, 10 rebounds and five assists. Atlanta is 22-6 in front of the home crowd, cashing in 18 of those 28 contests.

Back on Dec. 5, the Hawks went to Dallas and scored an 80-75 upset as 5½-point underdogs. They’ve now won two straight over the Mavs, including last year’s 95-87 home win as a five-point favorite. Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 series clashes, including 5-1 ATS at home.

Dallas has been a disaster at the betting window lately, currently on pointspread skids of 6-16 overall, 1-4 as a ‘dog, 8-20 after a straight-up win, 3-12 after getting one day off, 3-13 after a spread-cover and 2-7 against Southeast Division teams. Atlanta is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a straight-up win, but is otherwise on positive ATS streaks of 29-14-1 as a home favorite, 13-5 after a non-cover and 4-1 against Southwest Division squads.

The Mavericks have stayed below the total in 11 of 16 against Southeast Division teams, but topped the total in five of seven on Fridays, six of eight after a straight-up win and seven of 10 as a road ‘dog of up to 4½ points. Meanwhile, the Hawks are on “under” streaks of 4-0 after a day off, 12-3-1 after a straight-up win and 8-3 as a home favorite of up to 4½-points. In this series, the “under” has been the play in each of the last four.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER

Cleveland (45-14, 29-29-1 ATS) at Toronto (31-25, 28-28 ATS)

The Cavaliers used a huge second half to blow out the Celtics on Thursday night and now turn around and head north of the border to take on the Raptors inside the Air Canada Centre in Toronto.

Cleveland outscored Boston 60-32 in the second half to score a 108-88 victory Thursday, cashing as a 2½-point road favorite to halt an 0-4 ATS slide. LeBron James led the way with 36 points, seven rebounds and nine assists. Thursday’s result aside, it’s been a tough second half of the season for the Cavs, who lost three straight after the All-Star break (SU and ATS) and who’ve failed to cash in six of eight overall.

The Raptors had won five of six overall (3-3 ATS) before losing at home to Portland on Wednesday, falling 101-87 as a three-point home favorite. With All-Star Chris Bosh sidelined with an injury, Hedo Turkoglu had 24 points for Toronto, but it couldn’t stop the Blazers who shot 42-of-85 from the field. Still, the Raptors are 21-8 at home this season, cashing in 16 of those 29 contests.

Both squads could be without their big men tonight, as Bosh remains questionable while Cleveland’s Shaquille O’Neal left last night’s game in Boston with a thumb injury and didn’t return.

The home team has won both meetings between these two this season, including an Oct. 28 game in Toronto when the Raptors scored a 101-91 victory as seven-point home pups. Cleveland got revenge on Jan. 19, prevailing 108-100 but came up short as 10-point favorites. The Cavs have won eight of the last 10 clashes (6-4 ATS) and cashed in 10 of the last 14 meetings in Toronto.

Cleveland is on ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 1-4 against Atlantic Division teams and 0-4 on the second night of a back-to-back. The Raptors are just 11-27-1 ATS at home against teams with winning road marks, but they are on positive ATS runs of 13-6 against Central Division teams, 7-3 after getting a day off and 4-1 on Friday.

The Cavaliers have topped the total in five of six against Atlantic Division teams and six of nine overall, but they have stayed “under” the number in eight of 11 Friday games and five of eight against winning teams. Toronto is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 6-2 at home against teams with winning road records and 8-3 against teams with winning records, but it has gone over the total in 17 of 23 against the Eastern Conference.

In this series, the under is 6-2 in the last eight overall and 13-3-1 in the last 17 played in Canada.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Orlando (39-19, 30-27-1 ATS) at New Orleans (30-28, 29-29 ATS)

The Magic head to New Orleans Arena looking to hand the Hornets their third straight loss and seventh in their last 11 contests.

Orlando has won two in a row (SU and ATS) and seven of their last 10 (6-4 ATS). On, Wednesday the Magic clobbered the Rockets in Houston 110-92, easily cashing as 4½-point road favorites. Dwight Howard delivered a big game, going 11-of-11 from the field for 30 points and pulling down 16 rebounds.

Even though they have dropped two straight, the Hornets are 6-2 ATS in their last eight. However, they’re coming off Wednesday’s ugly 115-95 loss in Milwaukee as six-point underdogs. They were outrebounded by nine and allowed the Bucks to shoot 52.2 percent from the floor.

The home team has won the last three meetings between these two, including a Feb. 8 contest in Orlando when the Magic eked out a 123-117 win, but came up short as 9½-point favorites. The Hornets are 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Magic. In this series, the road team is on an 11-4-1 ATS run while the underdog has cashed in nine of the last 12.

Orlando is on ATS streaks of 4-1 on the road, 4-1 as a favorite and 5-1 after getting a day off, but it is on ATS skids of 1-4 on Fridays, 2-5-1 against Western Conference teams and 1-4 after a spread-cover. New Orleans comes into tonight’s contest just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 at home and 3-13 ATS in its last 16 on Fridays, but riding positive ATS streaks of 5-0 after getting one day off, 23-7 at home against teams with winning road records, 6-2 as a home pup and 18-6 against teams with winning records.

The Magic are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 9-3 overall, 23-9 on the road, 21-8 against Western Conference teams, 41-18 after getting a day off and 13-3 on Friday. The Hornets have topped the total in six straight after a non-cover, seven of 10 as an underdog and 11 of 16 overall, but they are on “under” runs of 29-14 at home and 20-8-1 as a home pup.

Finally, in this series, the under has been the play in nine of the last 12 meetings, including five of six in the Bayou.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

NBA RoundUp For 2/26
By Dan Bebe

Cavaliers @ Raptors - This line is OFF. Once again, this game is all about Chris Bosh, and unfortunately, he's been downgraded to doubtful. If Bosh plays, I LOVE the Raptors. Without him, I don't like this game at all. Cleveland is coming off beating the piss out of Boston with a runaway 4th quarter in Boston, and while I do think they're turning a corner with their new lineup, and with Mo Williams starting to get his legs back, I also think that off a blowout win over the Celtics, the Cavs are simply as overrated for one day as they will be all season long. Toronto has just been awful without Bosh, and I would say I'm a bit disappointed in all the other weapons on that team for failing to step up so completely. I mean, Toronto isn't a dead fish without Bosh, or they shouldn't be. Calderon, Turkoglu, Bargnani, Jack, all capable basketball players, I would have thought. In any case, if Bosh does indeed sit this one out, we may see a rather beefy line for the Cavs to cover. These teams have split the 2 meetings so far this year, so there really isn't much inspiration for the Cavs to play well, especially considering the hassle of getting through customs on a back-to-back off such a huge game in Boston. Also, it was something of a late game in Boston, so there's a strong possibility that they may not get into a Toronto hotel until the wee hours of the morning. The Cavs are already just 5-9 ATS on back-to-back spots, so the 2 points they get against the spread seemingly haven't been enough, and I so badly want to back the Raptors here, but I just don't know if we can trust them without their superstar. Maybe Bosh will make a miraculous recovery...a man can dream. I lean Raptors, and I lean Over, since I don't see Cleveland playing with much defensive intensity.

Knicks @ Wizards - Wizards by 1.5 with a total of 204. The line on this game is absolutely amazing, and so strongly illustrates how far the Knicks have tumbled. Washington has been a favorite 16 times this season, and is a miserable 4-12 ATS in those games, but they are a completely different team now, so we almost have to start over with them. The point I wanted to make about the line, though, involves the previous meetings. These teams have already played twice this season, with each team winning the home game pretty easily, the Knicks beating Washington by 22 as a 6-point home favorite, and losing by 10 as a 2-point road favorite. Now, they come into Washington as a 1.5-point dog. That's a 3.5-point swing since just late January, and we're talking about a Wizards team that has shipped off almost every notable piece of their puzzle. That is just incredible, to think the Knicks went from being 5 points better than Washington in their first meeting to 3 points better in their second (though some of that swing could have been revenge), to now just 1.5 points better despite Washington losing their 3 best players, arguably. In any case, that's how it is, now, and we have to react to it. The Knicks have lost 8 straight basketball games straight up, and are just 3-5 ATS in that stretch, so they're not just losing, they're getting creamed. Washington had a 6-game ATS win streak snapped by visiting Memphis, but they are a team of young guys playing for full-time starting gigs, and you just have to love the max effort we're getting out of this bad team. New York is coming off a hard-fought loss to the Celtics, and I just don't see them getting the ship righted in this one. I lean Washington on the side, since they lost their most recent battle with the Knicks, and they're just simply playing better ball, and I like the Over, since New York's defense has really hit rock bottom, allowing almost 115 ppg in February (especially if you eliminate the dud against Milwaukee).

Magic @ Hornets - Magic by 4.5 with a total of 200.5. Alright, well, Orlando steamrolled Houston in a game that just looked too easy, and in fact, turned out to be exactly that, too easy. Now, they take their operation into New Orleans to do battle with the running and gunning Hornets. I have to admit, I leaned Orlando in that one, but I'm pretty surprised at how well they played off the huge win over Cleveland on Sunday. That potential letdown was more than enough reason for me to pass on that game. Now, off the beating of Houston, can Orlando put together another dominant performance, or do they regress a little here? I have the sensation in my belly that this line is extremely soft, and there's some value with New Orleans despite the Magic's strong recent play. First, Orlando isn't as great as their last game might indicate -- yes, they're a good team, but by playing untouchable basketball, they improved the public's perception of them, which is leading to a slightly inflated line on Orlando. On the other side, the Hornets had covered 6 of 7 before getting their asses handed to them by the Bucks. I love that New Orleans lost big. They were clearly tired off the big game with Cleveland the night before, and now they can come home, where they're 6-3 ATS as an underdog (20-13 ATS as an underdog home and road). The Hornets are a very good shooting team, especially at home, and I believe Orlando might not take this game all that seriously, if not for any reason other than that they're overconfident from the last couple wins. I lean Hornets to cover on revenge (Orlando staged a monster comeback and beat New Orleans 123-117 3 weeks ago), and I believe the total is pretty accurate, though the Hornets have really been running like crazy, so I'd lean Over before I'd lean the other direction.

Timberwolves @ Thunder - Thunder by 10 with a total of 201. This is a very interesting game, and while I don't know if the angles are strong enough to warrant a bet, there's a ton going on here that needs to be addressed. First, the Thunder had a 9-game win-streak snapped at home by the Suns a couple days back, then lost another in San Antonio. I generally like to fade teams off a long winning streak, but it's VERY difficult to try to figure out when the time is right to get back behind those teams. As it is, the Thunder are actually a little bit overrated. They're a very strong team, and they'll continue to win games, but in terms of the line, betting on Oklahoma City right now is going to require paying a premium. The 9-game win streak combined with Durant's ridiculous run of 25-point scoring efforts garnered a lot of media attention, and the public has caught on. So, now, the Thunder have failed to cover 4 in a row in addition to that 2-game straight up losing streak. As far as Minnesota is concerned, these teams have played twice this season already, and the Thunder have won both games by 2 points. The Thunder took the first meeting in Minnesota on January 20th 94-92 (this game stayed Under the posted mark of 199.5), a strangely slow game; they took the second meeting, also in Minnesota, 109-107 last week (a total that went up and Over 201). Now, in this one, the total is STILL 201, which pushes me to an Under lean, since the number was not adjusted, and I think Minnesota brings their A-game. The Wolves believe they can beat the Thunder, and I don't think Oklahoma City wakes back up just yet. Even if you simply flip the home court edge, the Thunder should only be an 8-point home favorite, so you can see right away there's some line edge for the Wolves. I lean Minnesota.

Mavericks @ Hawks - Atlanta by 3.5 with a total of 195. This should be an entertaining game, I would think. The Hawks are in their second game at home off the long road trip, so they should be settling in nicely off the failed cover against Minnesota. I think, in that regard, Atlanta does have a little value. In another regard, Atlanta has even more value, and that is courtesy of the Mavs' home win over the Lakers. Dallas is definitely playing better basketball, but they're certainly not unbeatable, and coming off that HUGE statement win over the Lakers, despite this game being televised, I just don't know if I trust them to get it done on the road. Dallas is going to be overrated, and I wonder if the Hawks aren't going to be slightly underrated. Based on what I've seen and heard, folks have stopped talking about Atlanta, and they've kind of settled into covering about half their games after starting the year by going gangbusters. These two teams have met before, though, and Atlanta beat Dallas 80-75 in a terribly ugly game in Texas back on December 5. This isn't the same Mavs team, though, so I'm not sure they're really sitting around and moping about that loss to the Hawks. For what it's worth, Dallas is just 2-5 ATS when revenging a home loss, so they don't seem to take these spots any extra-seriously. Atlanta has been very, very tough at home at 18-10 ATS, and while Dallas has been much better ATS on the road than at home, I just believe the line value, for once, is with a home favorite. I lean Hawks, and I lean Under.

Blazers @ Bulls - Chicago by 3.5 with a total of 192. Another game with a spread of 3.5, eh? Fair enough. I should start by saying that I have extremely weak feelings about this game. Both of these teams are playing solid basketball, as it seems Portland needed to get away from home, and get Brandon Roy healthy (surprise, surprise!) to get good, again. I know Portland would love to have Marcus Camby back, but we all know how brittle that buffoon can be, so I would assume they're planning on going without him. Portland has won, and covered, both games on their road trip thus far, but those game against New Jersey and the Bosh-less Raptors. Now, they get their first real test on this trip, going against a completely revitalized Chicago Bulls club that is a solid 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games, and has been doing it by improving both on the fast break and on the half-court defense. Chicago has, and I may be off by a spot or two, elevated their defense to top-5 status, holding opponents to extremely low, impressive FG% numbers. I just struggle to break down this game, with both teams in almost the same spot. Both are trying to ramp up their game as we near the stretch, both teams are playing well, both are coming off a nice win, and the only situational angle that has any merit is the note that Portland beat Chicago by 24 way back in November. I'd be surprised if anyone on Chicago even remembers that game, but I guess without anything else to go on, I have to lean to Chicago. I'm intrigued by the Over, but not really convinced of it. Portland's scoring is improving dramatically with Brandon Roy back, and Chicago is doing a great job of getting out and running when the opportunity presents itself. I like the Over when we've got two defensive-minded teams going head-to-head.

Bobcats @ Grizzlies - Memphis by 3.5 with a total of 193. I should probably never admit this, but I don't have any kind of read on the Bobcats right now. Charlotte is something of a post All Star Break enigma. They lost at home to Jersey, beat the Cavs, and have dropped all 3 games on their current road trip through Milwaukee, LA (Clips) and Utah. So, basically, they've been pretty bad. I know that the value is often with the bad team, but that statement by itself just isn't true. Value is with a bad team playing well, and right now, Charlotte is a middling team playing terribly. They are a bad bet, and even if they dominate this game, I still won't go back on this statement. In terms of covers, the Bobcats are just 1-7 in their last 8, so that's even worse than the straight up mark, AND Charlotte beat Memphis 89-87 on a last-second shot (I remember that game well) back in mid-January. So, we have Memphis, a middling team that appears to be starting to turn the corner (they've covered 3 straight), trying to get some revenge and pick up another win against a Charlotte team in their last game on a 4-game West coast (and southern) road trip. I don't think people trust the Grizzlies yet, but I do, and I lean Memphis. I also like that the Grizz are putting some effort into playing defense, and taking care of the ball - I lean Under.

Spurs @ Rockets - San Antonio by 3 with a total of 196. Historically, this has been the time of year the Spurs turn it on. Can they do it again? Even if you think so, I'm not sure there's enough value in this game to warrant a play. The Spurs are coming off a tough home win over the Thunder, shutting down Kevin Durant in the process. Someone that watched that game would certainly believe the Spurs should be able to take care of Houston. They might not be wrong. These teams have played twice this year, with the road team taking care of business in each one. Back in late November, the Spurs won in Houston 92-84, then 2 months later Houston beat the Spurs in San Antonio 116-109 on the shoulders of a 55% shooting performance. I don't think Houston can duplicate that effort again here, as it really is starting to feel like the Rockets are running out of gas. They traded for Kevin Martin, and, to no one's surprise, that's not helping yet. They just don't seem to be able to find points, even in their up-tempo offense, losing 3 straight, and falling to 1-7 ATS in the second half of the season against winning teams. Bottom line is that it has just been an ugly run for the Rockets, and I don't know that there's ever a "good" time to back this team. They seem to pull a crazy road blowout win out of their back pocket once every couple weeks, but otherwise, Houston is in shambles. San Antonio looked strong in their first game back from the Rodeo Road trip, and I think this is a team that is prime to go on a little run, though I'm not sure this is the right time to get behind them. Still, value or not, the Spurs are playing better basketball and lost their last game with the Rockets, so I lean in the square direction of the small road favorites. I also think if you like the Spurs, you have to like the Under, so I do.

Pistons @ Nuggets - Nuggets by 10.5 with a total of 200. Well, as you'll see later, if the Lakers/Sixers game is a look-ahead spot, then this has to be one, too, does it not? I happen to think this game is potentially a bigger look-ahead than the one the Lakers have, since LA is coming off a loss in Dallas, which should motivate them a bit more, while the Nuggets are coming off a ridiculously hot-shooting performance in Golden State, and they're traveling late into the night to get home. Now, we need to be aware that when the Nuggets play back-to-backs, they tend to play a little bit slower. That shouldn't surprise anyone, though -- a hyper up-tempo club just isn't going to have the legs to run, run, run 2 nights in a row, especially if they're going a fair amount of travel between games. This is a weird spot in that Denver is the team coming from the super-late TNT game, which just ended around 10:20pm Pacific time. So, assuming they haul ass to their team plane, they should be getting back into Denver by around 2:30 or 3am local time. They don't have to check into hotels, which helps, and they'll likely get better rest in their own beds than most visiting teams do on the 10th floor of a building that's already a mile high, but I have a sneaking suspicion Denver might actually show some signs of wear in this one. Also, this might blow your minds, but Detroit is Denver's kryptonite. Detroit has beaten Denver 5 straight times, despite being the lesser team in quite a few of those meetings. Now, I'm not contending the Pistons win again, but with the Lakers game coming up on Sunday and Denver feeling confident and tired, the Pistons should be able to score enough easy buckets to stay in this one. I like Detroit to cover, and I like the Over, since, while we've seen the Nuggets don't score as much on back-to-backs, they give up even more than they lose, and Detroit should break 100 in this one.

Jazz @ Kings - Utah by 7.5 with a total of 201.5. Well, if you want to talk about a tale of two teams, this is really that. The Jazz have been an absolute wrecking machine since mid-January, and the Kings, well, have been the worst team in the NBA this year. And just when you thought maybe they were about to turn a corner and start getting a little value, the Kings made a blockbuster trade which, admittedly, will probably help them in the long run, since they unloaded the shoot-first Kevin Martin, but also brought in new pieces that are each taking some time to adjust. As a result, Sacramento is rolling to the tune of zero wins since the All Star Break, and only one cover. They are bad, home or road, and I just can't advocate backing them, not yet. The time will come when they'll figure out how to play, they'll give a good effort and deserve our attention, but it's just not yet. Unfortunately, what we have here is a situation of one team that's SO bad that no amount of line value is worthwhile and another team that's so hot that they're laying 7.5 points on the road, which makes them an incredibly tough team to choose, as well. What is somewhat interesting is that the Kings have not only covered both games against the Jazz this year, but they actually beat Utah straight up in one of those two contests, a meeting way back in November, before the Jazz got their legs underneath them. I can't help but think the Jazz are making a real run at one of the top seeds in the West; they're 8-2 ATS in the second half of the season, and even though they're the big road favorite, I dig 'em. I also like the Under, since the Jazz have quietly turned themselves into a truly hard-nosed team, and Sacramento can't score lately to save their lives.

Clippers @ Suns - Phoenix by 10 with a total of 208. This spread is just too huge, and the likelihood that I make a play on the game is somewhat minimal. You guys know how little I like to work with giant spreads, but as you also know, when you have a game with a double-digit spread, you simply have to start with the dog and work your way off that team, if possible. Here, we have the Clippers, who seem to have bottomed out right after the All Star Break, and as they're finding a smooth rotation for the new bodies, they have won, and covered, 3 in a row. Now, before we get too excited, those wins have come over the Kings, Bobcats and Pistons, and they probably would have lost to Detroit had the Pistons not been on a back-to-back spot and just simply got tired, but in terms of line value, the Clippers have a goodly amount. They are the team no one wants to back, and even though the Suns are playing inspired basketball right now, they are still the marquee team, and it's always going to cost you to back them. Phoenix has been playing some more defensive-minded games, and you just have to love taking a road team with 10 points when the score isn't necessarily going to be all that high. I mean, just look at the total - only 208! There was a time not that long ago when the Suns wouldn't have a total under 212 for just about any team in the League, let alone a team like the Clippers that aren't exactly known for their defense. The obvious concern is that the Clippers are just awful on the road. Still, they got flat-out embarrassed in Phoenix on Christmas Day, and I think the guys left over from that Clippers team are going to want to come back today and make a stink. I lean LA, and I lean Under.

Sixers @ Lakers - Lakers by 11.5 with a total of 197. Lakers, I'd like you to meet my friend, Mr. Lookahead. I don't care who's on the team, this isn't a very good spot for the Lakers. Obviously, in terms of value, the Lakers are always going to be a little overvalued. If they weren't coming off a loss to the Mavs, it might be a bit more pronounced, but I love the fact that the Lakers have a game with the Nuggets coming up on National TV on Sunday. Unfortunately, on the other side is Philadelphia, finishing up a 4-game road trip, and then taking a couple days off before hosting the Orlando Magic. It's tough to know if Philly is going to show up, because even a fairly strong effort from Philly should be enough to keep this thing within this gigantic number. I don't know if there's an outrageous amount of value, and obviously with the Lakers coming off a straight up loss, Kobe is going to be pissed, but that doesn't necessarily mean a cover. The questions of this game are simply, "Will Philly play hard to finish the road trip" and "Will the Lakers look ahead to Denver?" If you can definitively make a statement on either of those questions, you've got yourself a potential play. I happen to think the Lakers win this one by 9-10, which would be a narrow cover for the Sixers, but if indeed Philly has their mind on the trip home, this could be a blowout. I lean just slightly to Philadelphia, thanks to their nice ATS road record, and I lean slightly to the Over, since I believe any chance Philly has to stay in this is going to be through a higher-scoring affair.

East vs. West in NBA Televised Betting Conflicts
By Doug Upstone

Once again this season, the Western Conference has the edge over the East. The West has 11 teams at .500 or better, compared to those from the Eastern side with eight. One distinct disadvantage the East has is New Jersey (1-21 SU vs. the West), that would be the Nets, not the state. ESPN will have two confrontations to wager on Friday night with the NBA bettor being able to show his allegiance.

Dallas at Atlanta

While a number of Eastern Conference teams have been pummeled by the West, one club that hasn't is Atlanta (36-20, 34-22 ATS). The Hawks are 18-8 against the other conference with a 15-11 ATS mark. Atlanta is even more imposing at Phillips Arena with 10-1 (6-5 ATS) record.

The Hawks return home from .500 four game road trip and gave a run of the mill performance in defeating Minnesota 98-92 as 11.5-point favorites. Atlanta was bailed out by Josh Smith, who had 27 points, 10 rebounds and five assists.

He was all over the place," coach Mike Woodson said. "He blocked some shots. He scored for us, made some free throws. He was solid from beginning to end, and we're going to need him the rest of the way." Atlanta is 18-9 ATS after playing a home game this season.

The Hawks are going to need Smith and a complete team effort to slow down Dallas (37-21, 24-34 ATS). The Mavericks have won five in a row and have really put the defensive clamps down on opposing teams, limiting them to 90.2 points per game during this win streak. Dallas has a number of negative trends this season, but they are 16-9 ATS when they hold opponents to 96 or fewer points.

The Mavs are only three-point road underdogs at Sportsbet.com, possibly because they are 17-5 (10-12 ATS) against the East. Dallas will have to overcome frightening angle that has them at 5-15 ATS after two or more consecutive wins this season. Atlanta on the other hand is 22-6 and 19-10 ATS at home and 26-12 ATS on their own court after three straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last two years.

Atlanta has won and covered last two meeting at home and is 17-6 OVER after one or more Under's this season. The Hawks also won at Dallas 80-75 on Dec. 5 as six-point underdogs and the Mavericks are 9-1 UNDER in road games revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite.

Orlando at New Orleans

The Magic have won 13 of last 17 (9-7-1 ATS) and no tricks have been involved. Center Dwight Howard has been the centerpiece of Orlando (39-19, 28-26-4 ATS) surge, that has catapulted them into first place in the Southwest Division and ahead of Boston for the second best record in the East.

"He's worked hard. He's made improvement and I think he's going to play at a high level all of the time." - Coach Stan Van Gundy said about Howard.

The Magic humiliated Houston 110-92 at their place and is 17-6 ATS after scoring 60 points or more in the first half last contest. Orlando has been above average against the West with 12-8 mark and 8-9-3 ATS record.

New Orleans (30-28, 29-29 ATS) could use some help, having lost seven of last 11. The Hornets have pressed on without their leader Chris Paul, as their rookie backcourt of Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton has played well on the offensive end, but possibly isn't getting the rest of the team into the offense. As one might expect, defense is an on-going lesson for this duo at this level and they and their teammates permitted Milwaukee to score 72 of their 115 points in the paint in last outing, which is dreadful, since the Bucks aren't exactly known as inside scoring team.

We just didn't have enough fight, which is inexcusable for a team like this," Collison said. "Mentally, we weren't in it on the defensive end." The Hornets will have to get into it or they will fall to 2-11 ATS on Friday night's.

New Orleans is five-point home underdog with total of 201 and they are 10-15 (13-12 ATS) facing teams east of the nearby Mississippi River. The Hornets lost by six at Orlando earlier this month and is 25-11 ATS at home revenging a same season loss and 14-3 UNDER as a home underdog. The Magic has mesmerized non-conference foes on the road the last three years with 29-13 ATS record and is 16-6 UNDER as a road favorite this season.

The Hornets are 5-4 and 4-5 ATS against Orlando since moving to the Crescent City.