NBA News and Notes Friday 2/5

Game of the day: Nuggets at Lakers
By Lee Kostroski

Feeling ‘Melo

Denver has played their last six games without the NBA’s leading scorer Carmelo Anthony, who is again doubtful against the Lakers with an ankle injury. They have lost two straight and are 3-3 without him.

Without Anthony, the Nuggets are a very average offense. They are averaging just 99.5 points per game sans Melo and have shot 46 percent or below in five of those six games compared to 106.8 ppg and 47 percent with him in the lineup.

Denver lost its last game on Wednesday night against the Suns, managing just 97 points against one of the worst defenses in the NBA. They’ll need more of a contribution from fellow All-Star Chauncey Billups, who had just 11 points and shot 5-for-14 against the Suns which followed up a shooting 6-for-25 night in Monday's win against the Kings.

"Sometimes he takes a little too much responsibility for Melo not being in the lineup — and because of that, he's probably missed a few shots that maybe we should have been a little patient with," head coach George Karl said.

Without Anthony, the Nuggets struggled at creating a "hot player" on offense, as Karl likes to say. Nene led Denver with 15 points against Phoenix — the lowest top-scoring total for the team this season.

With their recent cold streak, the Nuggets have fallen 4.5 games behind the Lakers in the Western Conference playoff standings. They are 4-2 in their last six road games, with quality wins at Utah, Golden State, San Antonio and Houston.

Denver could struggle against the Lakers stout defense. L.A. is allowing just 93.6 points per game in their last five games.

Leg-less Lakers

Shortly after Kobe Bryant became the Lakers all-time leading scorer, head coach Phil Jackson became the winningest head coach in franchise history with their win over the Bobcats on Wednesday night. It was their first game home after an eight-game road trip out east and they are feeling the aftereffects.

Stars Pau Gasol and Kobe Bryant were just 8-of-25 from the field and managed just 19 points. "We got out of sync a little bit, and the legs were extremely heavy," said Gasol.

Bryant is dealing with a sprained ankle that has hampered him for the past few games. He did not practice Thursday and his status for Friday is uncertain.

That setback has left the team scrambling to figure out how to win with Bryant and Gasol not at their most effective. Bench contributors Shannon Brown (10 points) and Lamar Odom (19 points) helped out immensely Wednesday.

The bench will need to provide more contribution with four tough games remaining before the All-Star break, including games against Portland, San Antonio and Utah.

Prior engagement

These two met in Denver in mid-November in their only previous meeting this season. Denver dominated that game, leading by 29 points at one point, and ended up handing L.A. their largest loss of the season (26 points).

The Lakers shot a season low 35 percent from the field and had 18 turnovers. Denver had a +12 edge in points in the paint and a +10 advantage in fast-break points.

The Lakers have defeated the Nuggets at home in four of the last five meetings, winning by a margin of 9.8 points per game.

Trends

Denver is just 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 vs. the Western Conference and more specifically, 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games versus the Pacific Division.

The Nuggets haven’t performed well on the road lately, as they are just 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 road games whereas the Lakers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Los Angeles is 13-6 ATS in the last 19 meetings with Denver and 12-3 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Los Angeles.

These two teams have played to the under in 11 of the last 14 meetings.

Inside the Paint - Friday
By Chris David

With Super Bowl XLIV just two days away, gamblers still have the opportunity to build their bankrolls for the big game. Fortunately, Friday’s pro basketball cards offers up 10 games on tap, including a televised double-header on ESPN. Let’s take a closer look at the pair and then touch on some Bonus Hits below as well.

Chicago (23-24 SU, 22-23 ATS) at Atlanta (31-17 SU, 29-18 ATS)

The Bulls and Hawks square off for the third time this season, with tonight’s contest taking place from Philips Arena. The first two encounters were split, as the home squad captured each game. Chicago stopped Atlanta 101-98 on Dec. 19 in overtime, which helped the Bulls avenge a 35-point loss (118-83) 10 days earlier in Georgia. The two teams will meet one more time on Mar. 1 from the Windy City.

Total players should make a note that two head-to-head battles this year went ‘over’ this year and it’s on a 6-0 run in this series. Before you run to the counter and expect a high-scoring affair, digest these numbers. The Bulls have watched the ‘under’ go 27-19 this season and that includes a 14-10 mark on the road. Plus, seven of Chicago’s last 10 on the road have gone ‘under’ the total.

The ‘over/under’ on this game has been listed at 197 and that’s largely due to Atlanta’s ability to explode at home. The Hawks have averaged 107 points per game in their building, which has helped the ‘over’ go 16-8.

Oddsmakers have installed Atlanta as a seven-point favorite and it seems fair considering it owns a 20-5 SU and 17-8 ATS. Chicago recently posted a 5-2 mar on a seven-game road trip, but it will enter tonight’s game with back-to-back losses.

Denver (33-16 SU, 22-26 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (38-12 SU, 23-25 ATS)

The L.A. Lakers stopped Charlotte 99-97 on Wednesday from Staples Center but they failed to cover as 9 ½-point home favorites. Los Angeles returned from an eight-game road trip that saw the team post a 5-3 record.

Los Angeles has been a beast at home this year, going 24-3 SU and 13-12 ATS. The losses came against the Mavericks, Rockets and Cavaliers. Denver will try to be the fourth team to knock off the Purple and Gold at home on Friday when they visit Los Angeles. George Karl’s team has gone 11-12 SU and 9-14 ATS on the road this year.

The Nuggets have been hampered by health issues this year but the team has found ways to move forward. The recent casualty has been forward Carmelo Anthony (ankle), who has missed the last six games. Anthony is listed as ‘doubtful’ for Friday and possibly Saturday too. Even without the All-Star, Denver has managed to post a 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS record. The offense (99.5 PPG) has tempered a bit, which has helped the ‘under’ go 4-2.

Last year in the Western Conference finals, Los Angeles defeated Denver in six games. The Lakers covered three of the four games and the ‘under’ went 4-2.

Quickly after this game, the Lakers will head to Portland on Saturday. Denver will also be in a back-to-back spot tomorrow when it visits a red-hot Utah team. Keep in mind that the Jazz have been producing sick profits against teams on zero days rest this year. Jerry Sloan’s team is 11-2 ATS in this spot, and that includes an 8-0 ATS mark from Salt Lake City.

CD’s Bonus Hits

After a rough stretch, the Suns have found their groove again. Phoenix has won and covered four straight and three of them have come on the road, and this comes after a 2-7 run. Tonight they go to Sacramento and the Suns have won nine of the last 10 against the Kings. The team has gone 6-4 during this stretch.

Those of you following Dallas may or may not be aware of this eye opening trend at home for the club. The Mavericks have gone 15-8 SU at home this season, but they’re just 5-18 ATS. What’s more amazing is that Dallas is on a 0-17 ATS skid as a home favorites in its last 17 spots. With Minnesota coming to the Lone Star State tonight, it makes you wonder if the Mavs will ever bust this ATS skid. Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavs are laying 11 points tonight.

New Jersey has been awful this season and most wouldn’t expect the team to turn the corner tonight at Boston. The Celtics have won 11 straight (8-3 ATS) against the Nets, which includes two victories (1-1 ATS) this year by double digits.

The Pistons finally earned themselves a win on Tuesday after barely getting past the hapless Nets. Unfortunately, Detroit heads to Indiana and it hasn’t fared well against the Pacers. The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings against Indiana, and that includes a 0-3 mark from Conseco Fieldhouse.

Are you ready for another ‘under’ ticket from Madison Square Garden on Friday? New York has been an ‘under’ team all season (29-19) long and it enters tonight battle against Milwaukee with a 4-0 ‘under’ run. The Bucks also enter this showdown with a 4-0 ‘under’ streak.

Sticking with the ‘under’ theme, the 76ers and Hornets have seen their last six head-to-head battles go ‘under’ the number. Again, be careful here. Chris Paul is hurt but his backup Darren Collison has proven to be a decent fill in, especially as a provider. The former UCLA standout has 41 assists his last three games.

vegasinsider.com

No Lucky Charm
SportsPic.com

Celtics off a 107-102 squeaker over Heat as -5.5 point favorites have failed to cash seven straight tickets (0-6-1 ATS) running the hardwood at TD Banknorth Garden. The Celtics showing wear and tear losing six of it's last ten (2-7-1 ATS) along with All-Star forward Paul Pierce nursing a strained left ankle are in dangerous betting territory. The -13.5 point spot is a little excessive even against New Jersey. Celtics are 3-12 ATS last fifteen laying double digits, 5-15-1 ATS in their last twenty-one at home. Nets the leagues worst at 4-44 overall with a cash draining 17-31 mark at the betting window certainly have their work cut out. New Jersey is 1-24 (8-17 ATS) on the highway this season and have lost eleven consecutive vs Celtics (3-8 ATS) including 0-4 (1-3 ATS) in Beantown. Still, must give Nets a look. They've cashed four of the last five games, are a profitable 8-4 ATS last twelve on the highway vs the Atlantic Division and 13-5-1 ATS overall last nineteen vs. Atlantic foes.

Wagers to Watch
By Bodog

Nuggets at Lakers

The top two clubs in the Western Conference will square off at Staples Center, although we’re not entirely sure whether this must-see game on ESPN will have its full complement of star power. Carmelo Anthony (31.4 points, 6.9 rebounds per 40 minutes) has missed the last four games with a sprained ankle, but Denver won three of those games to improve to 32-15 SU and 22-23-2 ATS. Anthony was expected to return to action sometime this week, possibly Monday against Sacramento. The Lakers (37-11 SU, 22-24-2 ATS) have won their last four games at 3-0-1 ATS and are coming off a 90-89 triumph at the Garden over the hated Celtics (+1).

NBA RoundUp For 2/5
By Dan Bebe

Wizards @ Magic - This line is OFF. Caron Butler is questionable for this one, and the Magic are on revenge. Yeah, you read that correctly. The Wizards caught the Magic in a weird lull when these teams met in Washington, and won that one outright as a 7.5-point home dog. Now, the Wizards have to head into Orlando to tackle a team playing with a renewed vigor. The Magic have won 7 of 8 games straight up, the only loss in that stretch a very reasonable defeat in Memphis at the hands of the upstart Grizzlies. The ATS numbers aren't quite as impressive, though still decent, at 4-3-1 over that same 8-game stretch. The issue is, as it always seems to be with these premium, marquee teams, can the Magic cover what's sure to be a monster spread? I have to believe this is going to feature a spread in the double-digits, potentially right around the 9-11 window. My initial inclination is to think the Magic are going to want to bounce back and deliver a beating to the Wizards, but I believe the psychology of this game is more complex than that. The Magic, no matter how many times the Wizards catch them napping, are never going to take Washington seriously. Revenge is not really an issue. In fact, I think the win does more for the Washington side, giving them the confidence that they can compete with the Magic, if indeed they can force Orlando into a subpar performance. I think this spread is going to be fair, and I don't like the side. Both of these teams have been posting "unders" lately, so I have to lean in that direction, though the great concern is whether Orlando is going to put up 110 on Washington. I don't think they will - maybe 105, but let's see about the total before making any stronger calls.

Pistons @ Pacers - Indiana by 4 with a total of 199. Revenge spot for the Pistons, but can we trust this team to do anything right? Detroit lost by 12 to the Pacers in Motown about 2 weeks ago (as a 3.5-point favorite), so my assumption is that they will not take kindly to that beatdown. However, what have the Pistons showed us lately to make us think they're prepared to bounce back? They snapped a 5-game losing streak with a comeback win (and cover) against the New Jersey Nets, but that's it. They haven't been scoring, and they've been slow to work all the formerly injured bodies back into the rotation. Tayshaun Prince, Ben Gordon, Rip Hamilton, Will Bynum, Charlie Villanueva and a few others have all missed significant time, and Rip is finally starting to get back to his normal self, but the other guys are still far from full strength, and it makes this team a very dangerous play. The Pacers got a nice home win over a Toronto team that just never showed up in their last game, but they're just 11-13 SU at home, so this is by no means a gimme for Indiana, either. This is really a battle of the mediocre, sort of a round-two for Detroit off that game with the Nets. I don't see either team as the huge value, which makes it tough to have a strong lean. I think the revenge angle supports Detroit to keep it close for part of the game, but I just don't think they can maintain on the road for the full contest. No lean on the side. The posted total of 199 is basically spot on the actual total of the last game (198),t so oddsmakers think one should go similarly, and I'm inclined to agree. I DO think Detroit shoots better in this one than the 41% they posted in the last meeting, since the Pacers don't really play defense. This could clear 200 by a point or two - slightest lean to the Over.

Nets @ Celtics - Boston by 13 with a total of 188.5. I hate everything about this side. I hate laying 13 points, and I hate backing the Nets, other than the time we won with 'em, of course. New Jersey is coming off a narrow cover in Toronto, just barely slipping within the spread, losing by 9. Now, they head from Canada to Boston, and get a couple more points to work with. I think we're in one of those spots where if New Jersey's opponent was in any kind of letdown spot, it would be a great time to consider the Nets, but I actually think the Celtics are in a "spot of great comfort", playing the second consecutive game at home, rarely a time I like to go against a team. Yes, it's a ton of points to lay, and yes, the LINE value is all with the Nets, who continue to get all kinds of points to work with (and have covered 4 of their last 5 games), but Boston has been scoring much easier the last couple games, and I'm hesitant to think that the Nets dismal defense will do anything about it. Boston has been having trouble guarding guys on the dribble-drive, but who do the Nets have that can really cause trouble in a pick-and-roll? Devin Harris is doubtful, and even if he plays, he won't have the quickness necessary. Brook Lopez is the Nets key to success, and he's liable to get pushed around by Kendrick Perkins, KG and Rasheed Wallace, all very strong interior defenders. I know this is nuts, but if I had to make a lean, I'd lean to publictown, the Celtics. The total, I feel is pretty accurate, as I see Boston winning this one big, potentially in the 105-85 neighborhood.

Bucks @ Knicks - New York by 3 with a total of 200.5. This actually shapes up as a pretty interesting game. The Bucks had an 8-game ATS win-streak snapped while getting blown out in Orlando (again) in their last game, and now turn and head back up to MSG to do battle with the Knicks. The Bucks crushed New York way back in November, but these teams were pretty different then, in terms of style of play and level of success. I truly believe that the Bucks were just caught in a bad spot in that loss to the Magic, playing on the second night of a back-to-back after sweeping a home-and-home from the struggling Heat. Yes, New York is on revenge, but it was a road loss, so I think the general enjoyment of playing at home will only get a minor boost because that game was so long ago. New York is coming off a win (and cover) over the Wizards at home, so they do have a little positive momentum, but prior to that game this team had been struggling mightily, winning just 1 of the previous 6 games (and going the very same 1-5 ATS in that same stretch). I think the two important questions in this game are (1) will the Bucks continue their solid play or suffer a couple-game letdown off the drubbing in Orlando? and (2) will the Knicks put together a decent stretch of basketball, or was that win over the Knicks an anomaly? Those questions are very hit-or-miss. I think the Bucks AND Knicks play well in this one, which makes me think the side is a crapshoot. I like that both of these teams are trying to win with defense and execution, and I don't believe either club wants to get into a track meet. And no, it does not concern me that the previous meeting went under, and the oddsmakers have the line a bit higher - that game was far too long ago to have much impact on this one. I like the Under.

Bulls @ Hawks - Atlanta by 7 with a total of 197. I want to come right out of the chute by saying that for as fun a game as this one might be to watch, there are almost zero interesting angles to pursue on the sides. Other than the fact that, in general, Atlanta is a pretty solid home ATS wager, everything else rolls out pretty evenly. These teams have played twice this year, with each team winning (and covering) the home game. Those games occurred in December, so they're not that fresh in anyone's mind, and I would argue that the Bulls are playing the better basketball since then. Chicago did lay an absolute egg the first time they played in Atlanta, firing just 36% from the field while getting routed by 35, but they got their revenge, so it's pretty strongly a tabula rasa situation, here. Blank slate. The Bulls are hosting Miami tomorrow in Chicago, not a game I would call a look-ahead spot. The Hawks are playing in Washington tomorrow, not a look-ahead either. Neither team is in a long homestand, or coming off a road trip. Neither team is on any kind of interesting streak. I have no lean on this side. I also feel the total is set pretty tight, based on the two previous games kind of working their way closer to this number. If anything, I'd say we have a tiny bit of value on the Under, but not enough for me to consider it a lean. Chicago likes to play a slower game than Atlanta, so it's about which team can create the tempo they desire. I think the tempo clash will result in a total right around 200, which we're seeing in the line.

Rockets @ Grizzlies - Memphis by 5 with a total of 204. This game presents itself as the old "trap or game of the year" conundrum. The Grizzlies are on revenge, amazingly, from way earlier this season. And in most cases I would dismiss a game in November as ancient history, but the Grizzlies have turned their season around since that date, so I believe they're going to want to prove to the Rockets that they are now the superior team. Houston beat Memphis by 25 in Houston earlier this year, and my hope is that SOME bettors out there will see that lopsided win and assume that the Rockets should be able to roll into Memphis and get another win. I really don't believe that's the case. The Grizzlies won a huge game over the Lakers at home, suffered a letdown in Cleveland while getting creamed by the Cavs, and now they took 2 days off to regroup before getting to face the Rockets at home. I believe the Grizzlies are more than 2 points better than Houston on a neutral court. Really, what has Houston done lately to make them a compelling wager? They beat the Warriors and undermanned Blazers on their 6-game homestand, and they've never been very impressive on the road. They did get a win in San Antonio in a revenge game a couple weeks back, but when the strong motivational angles aren't there, the Rockets have been a much better home team. Maybe the new month will help Houston get things on track, but 2010 has not been kind to them so far. I lean strongly to the Grizzlies, and I like the Over, but that's assuming Houston can actually do their part to score a few points.

Sixers @ Hornets - New Orleans by 3 with a total of 195.5. Another revenge game, and another game with a line on it. I could get used to this! This game is basically set where we should expect. When these two teams met a couple weeks back in Philadelphia, the Hornets had their leader, Chris Paul, and were underdogs of 2-points playing on the second night of a back-to-back. So, assuming we do an 8-point flip, that would make the Hornets a 6-point home favorite. Drop Chris Paul, and voila! We arrive at 3. So, what's to make us think that we won't see an 8-point switch in the outcome of the game? Not much, really, other than the fact that the Sixers are actually better on the road than at home. Still, if you take the outcome and give it an 8-point flip, the Hornets should cover by a narrow margin, and I really did like the fight New Orleans showed in a tough loss at home to the Thunder. I think the Hornets are going to play very, very hard in this game, as I strongly believe they are aware this is a winnable game, and if they want to have any shot at playoffs, they need to try to tread water with Paul out. So, which is more important, the Sixers 14-10 road ATS mark, or the Hornets desire for revenge and desperate need for a win? I'm inclined to think the Hornets get it done. I know they don't cover at home, but without Chris Paul, I think the sense that they have one of the best players in the League that can just "flip a switch" and get them a close win is gone. Call me nuts, but I kind of like the Over, too, as I feel like the Hornets know they need to really push the ball and create open shots in transition, once again dealing with the lack of Paul.

Wolves @ Mavericks - Dallas by 11 with a total of 206. Uh oh, Dallas as a huge home favorite, again. Do we really need to get into all the details? I'll just start off by saying that something is going to really need to make me let go of the road dog in these games if I'm going to change my initial lean. I mean, come on. Dallas is 5-18 ATS at home, yet the public is going to love them just the same because, hell, they have Dirk Nowitzki! Minnesota is a clunker-team; nobody wants to play them, and for good reason. They stink. But we don't care about win or loss, we care about whether they can keep the game within reach. And given the fact that Minnesota shot 32.6% at home earlier this year in an ugly 89-77 loss to the Mavs, I think they'll come out ready to play. Numbers would dictate that the Mavs should win this home game by even more than those 12 points they laid on the Wolves up in Minnesota, but it just hasn't worked that way for Dallas this year. In fact, each of the last 3 times these teams have met in Dallas, the Mavs have won the game and lost ATS, and that was when Dallas was a strong home team. This year, they just seem two steps slow on defense, allowing over 100 points in, now, 5 straight games, all ATS losses. The Wolves have actually covered 2 straight games, both SU wins, as well, so they're playing with confidence, and I believe they will look at footage of their game with Dallas from November. That was an ugly performance, and this time around, the Wolves have had a rare 4-day break from basketball to get their legs back, get healthy, and get ready. I think they'll start slowly because of some sluggishness, so Dallas might surge ahead, but I think over the course of the game, the Wolves will start to gain strength while the Mavs start to tire a little. With Dirk Nowitzki playing through a sore thumb, the Mavs are going to need to get a lot of help and play some defense, and I just don't see all that happening. I like Minny on the side, and I simply have to look at the Over, since the Wolves like an up-tempo game, and Dallas is staunchly opposed to playing defense.

Suns @ Kings - Phoenix by 3 with a total of 220.5. Double-revenge? I'll take a plate with a side of What the Hell. Yeah, I'm getting cornball, but it's late, and I'm on game 9 of 10 here. Writing this much every day can really put a strain on the brain's ability to pump out clever phrasings and somewhat amusing grammatical mish-mosh. In any case, this is the ultimate case of hot streak vs. letdown for Phoenix. The other angles in this game don't really matter as much, in my opinion. I think the line has taken into account the Kings' desire to snatch a home win from the Suns after losing to them twice already, this year; I also think the line has taken into account the fact that Sacramento heads off on the road after this one, and wants to get a win at home before a trying road trip through Toronto, New York, and Detroit (the Niagara Falls loop, so to speak). What I don't believe the line has accounted for is the potential for a Phoenix soft game. The Suns have won and covered 4 straight after playing some hideous basketball in most of January. Maybe more important is the fact that Phoenix looked uninspired, maybe even playing a little concerned and hesitant. But Alvin Gentry has started to give his young, energetic centers (Lopez, Amundson) a little more playing time, and they've responded with layups and dunks, and more importantly, a little help-D. Why am I prattling on and on about the Suns? Well, it's important to note how white-hot they are right now, and why, coming off getting some revenge over the Nuggets in a huge ESPN game, they might be ripe for a letdown. The Suns don't play again until the 10th, so there may be a few folks ready to get home and chill. I lean Kings, and I lean Under, for the same reasons.

Nuggets @ Lakers - This line is OFF. Kobe Bryant is questionable. Finally a "good" reason for a game to wait on posting a line. And Melo might miss this one, too. It's the star-less marquee game of the night! I really wish Kobe would play, because the Lakers are on colossal revenge here, and the Nuggets have shown something of a lack of skill on the road. At just 9-13 ATS away from the Pepsi Center, the Nuggets are a great road fade, mostly because they're usually going to carry a premium as one of the League's elite teams, and for whatever reason, they tend to play down to their opponents on the road. Interestingly, though, the Nuggets are 12-11 ATS when playing a team with a winning record, so they tend to play just fine when they have to step it up. The Lakers, on the other hand, are just 8-14 ATS against teams over .500. Does this mean the Lakers revenge factor is enough to earn them a cover, or just the SU win? I'll be curious to see where this line comes out, and obviously the Kobe/Melo injuries are going to play a crucial role. I actually believe the best bet here is no bet. The Lakers are in a decent spot in their second game home off the long trip, but they play in Portland tomorrow in a letdown spot off this big fish. The Nuggets play in Utah tomorrow in a horrible altitude spot (though they're more used to it than just about any other team). I think the Lakers win this game straight up, with or without Kobe, but unless BOTH superstars play, I am inclined to take a pass on this side. If the stars play, I lean Lakers. I like the Under no matter who plays. The total is going to be wildly inflated because of the teams involved, but we talked at great length less than a week ago about how the Lakers play SLOW games with the best teams in the League. They are 10-14 O/U against teams with a winning record, and play even more strongly to the Under against the highest-profile of those winning teams.

Houston (26-22, 23-25 ATS) at Memphis (26-22, 27-20-1 ATS)

The Rockets and Grizzlies, who are tied for third place in the competitive Southwest Division, look to snap out of their respective slumps when they meet up for just the second time this season, this time at the FedEx Forum.

Houston has been idle since crushing the Warriors 119-97 on Tuesday, covering easily as a seven-point home favorite to snap an 0-5 ATS drought. The Rockets are still just 6-9 in their last 15 games, going 3-12 ATS. They’ve also lost five of their last six road games and failed to cash in seven of their last eight on the highway.

Memphis is coming off Tuesday’s 105-89 loss at Cleveland as a 10-point road underdog, and it has now followed up a 15-4 run (14-4-1 ATS) by losing three of its last four SU and ATS. On the bright side, the one victory was a 95-93 triumph over the defending-champion Lakers on Monday, and the Grizzlies have now won 12 of their last 13 at the FedEx Forum, and they’re 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 home contests.

These division rivals squared off way back on Nov. 11, and Houston cruised to a 104-79 victory as a nine-point home favorite. The Rockets have won six of the last eight meetings, but Memphis is 4-1 ATS in the last five (all as an underdog), including 2-0 SU and ATS at home. In fact, the host has taken six in a row and eight of the last nine in this series (6-3 ATS).

Other than cashing in four of their last five games against divisional opponents, Houston is mired in a slew of negative ATS slumps, including 1-5 overall, 1-7 on the road, 1-4 as an underdog, 1-6 as a road pup, 1-5 after a SU win, 1-4 after a spread-cover, 0-4 against winning teams and 2-7 against the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are on ATS tears of 14-6-1 overall, 20-8-1 at home, 9-4 within the Southwest Division, 7-2-1 as a favorite of five to 10½ points (all at home), 4-1 when playing on two days’ rest and 4-1 after a non-cover.

The under is on a 19-8 roll in this rivalry, with seven of the last 10 clashes in Memphis staying low. Additionally, the under is on streaks of 5-2 for the Grizzlies overall, 5-2 for the Grizzlies on Friday, 11-5 for the Rockets on the road, 11-5 for the Rockets against divisional rivals and 7-3 for the Rockets against winning teams.

On the flip side, Houston is on “over” runs of 8-3 overall, 4-0 on Friday and 5-0 after a SU victory, while Memphis carries “over” trends of 11-4 against Western Conference teams, 4-1 against Southwest Division foes, 4-1 when coming off two days’ rest and 5-0 when favored by five to 10½ points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MEMPHIS

Denver (33-16, 22-25-2 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (38-12, 22-26-2 ATS)

Two Western Conference powers whose best players are hobbled by left ankle injuries meet up at the Staples Center, as the Nuggets look to beat the Lakers for the second time this season.

Denver’s Carmelo Anthony has missed six straight games with a sprained ankle, and without him, his team has gone 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS. That includes Wednesday’s 109-97 loss to the Suns as a 5½-point home favorite. The Nuggets are still 13-4 in their last 17 games, including 4-2 on the road. However, George Karl’s club is in a 9-17-2 ATS funk overall, going 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 as a visitor.

The Lakers returned home Wednesday from an eight-game Eastern Conference road trip – their longest of the season – and survived a scare against Charlotte, holding on for a 99-97 victory but falling way short as a 10½-point favorite. Five players scored in double figures for Los Angeles, but Kobe Bryant wasn’t one of them, as he was held to just five points on 2-for-12 shooting in the victory. Bryant played a team-high 37 minutes but missed a portion of the game after tweaking his ankle in the first half.

The Lakers have won nine of their last 12 overall, going 6-4-2 ATS, and since a Christmas Day loss to the Cavaliers, they’re on an eight-game home winning streak (4-3-1 ATS).

Both Anthony and Bryant are listed as questionable for this game.

The Lakers beat Denver in six games in last year’s Western Conference finals, with the teams splitting the cash along the way. The Nuggets exacted a little revenge on Nov. 13 in the Mile High City, cruising 105-79 as a four-point home favorite, outscoring L.A. 47-23 in the second half. Still, Denver is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games in this rivalry and 3-12 ATS in its last 15 trips to Hollywood.

Going back to Game 2 of last year’s playoff series, the visitor is on a 4-2 SU and ATS run when these teams meet, and the winner cashed in all six of those battles and has covered in nine of the last 10 clashes.

In addition to their aforementioned pointspread slumps of 7-19-1 overall and 3-8-1 on the road, the Nuggets are also in ATS nosedives of 4-12-2 against the Western Conference, 1-6-1 against Pacific Division squads, 1-5 on Friday, 5-12 after one day of rest and 3-7 after a SU loss. However, they have cashed in five of six after a non-cover.

Los Angeles is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games and 4-1 ATS in its last five after a non-cover, but it has failed to cash in four straight games against Northwest Division squads.

Denver is on several “under” streaks, including 4-1 overall, 6-1 on the highway, 11-3 against winning teams, 6-2 on Friday, 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-0 after one day of rest. Similarly, the Lakers have stayed low in five of seven against the Western Conference, five of seven versus the Northwest Division and 10 of 13 against winning teams. Finally, the under has cashed in 11 of their last 14 clashes between these teams, including five of the last six head-to-head matchups at Staples Center.

ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER

Trend Report - Friday
By Ed Meyer

Nets at Celtics – The Celtics are 0-7 ATS (-12.4 ppg) since March 24, 1996 at home off a home win in which the game was tied at the end of the third quarter.

Rockets at Grizzlies – The Rockets are 0-10 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since January 26, 1998 as a dog with at least one day of rest after a win in which they controlled at least 60% of the available rebounds. The Rockets are 0-8 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since April 19, 2008 off a home win in which they never trailed. The Grizzlies are 7-0-1 ATS (8.1 ppg) since January 10, 2006 as a home favorite with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field.

Bulls at Hawks – The Bulls are 7-0 ATS (11.7 ppg) since November 17, 2001 on the road after a road loss in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line. The Hawks are 8-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since January 11, 2003 with at most one day of rest after a home win when their opponent is off an overtime game.

76ers at Hornets – The Hornets are 0-7 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since November 23, 2007 after a home loss in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The Hornets are 6-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since January 29, 2001 with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they allowed a shooting percentage at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Hornets are 0-5 ATS (-5.1 ppg) since February 02, 2005 after a home loss in which they had at least 15 more shot attempts than their opponent.

Suns at Kings – The Suns are 8-0 ATS (6.8 ppg) since January 18, 2008 after a road win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Suns are 0-7 ATS (-7.2 ppg) since January 24, 2002 as a favorite when they won as an underdog in each of their last two games. The League is 10-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since January 11, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a home loss in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points. The Kings are 7-0 ATS (10.7 ppg) since November 09, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average.

Bucks at Knicks – The Bucks are 8-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since April 02, 1996 with two or more days of rest after a loss in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line. The Bucks are 0-7-1 ATS (-6.1 ppg) since February 24, 2006 with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers. The League is 6-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since February 29, 2008 on the road with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field and less than 60% from the free-throw line. The Knicks are 6-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since April 05, 2001 at home with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Knicks are 6-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since December 04, 2000 with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average.

Nuggets at Lakers – The Nuggets are 9-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since January 28, 2003 as a road dog with at most one day of rest after a double digit loss in which their DPS was minus 15 points or less. The Nuggets are 8-0 ATS (5.8 ppg) since April 01, 2007 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Lakers are 10-0 ATS (12.9 ppg) since April 09, 2009 at home after losing the previous matchup in which Lamar Odom was not the Lakers' high scorer.

Wizards at Magic – The Wizards are 9-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since January 26, 2007 on the road with at least one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists. The Wizards are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since January 09, 2006 before playing the Hawks at home. The Wizards are 0-6 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since November 11, 2000 on the road after a game in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds. The League is 9-0-1 ATS (9.6 ppg) since December 11, 2007 with at least one day of rest after a double digit home win in which they attempted at least 10 fewer three pointers than their season-to-date average. The Magic are 7-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since April 07, 2007 with two or more days of rest after a game in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

Timberwolves at Mavericks – The Timberwolves are 0-7 ATS (-6.2 ppg) since February 20, 2007 with at least one day of rest off a win as a favorite in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS (6.3 ppg) since January 07, 2006 on the road versus the Mavericks. The Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since April 15, 2007 on the road when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they shot less than 40% from the field.

Pistons at Pacers – The Pistons are 7-0-2 ATS (8.3 ppg) since March 29, 2007 before playing the Nets. The League is 10-0-3 ATS (5.7 ppg) since May 11, 2008 at home with two or more days of rest after a double digit home win in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points. The Pacers are 0-7-1 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since November 26, 2004 at home after a home win in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since January 15, 2005 when playing the second game of a two game homestand after winning the first as a dog.

Tips and Trends

Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks

Bulls: After taking the NBA by storm with their recent 5 game SU winning streak, the Bulls have come back to earth by losing their past 2 games SU. It seems to be that type of season for the Bulls, where they are stuck in mediocrity. The Bulls are 23-24 SU on the season, yet surprisingly would make the playoffs as the #8 seed in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls are 9-16 SU and 12-13 ATS away from home this season. Today will mark the 9th game out of 10 that the Bulls will have played on the road. Chicago is a very profitable 16-13 ATS as the listed underdog for the entire season. The Bulls have played overtime games twice in their past 3 games. PG Derrick Rose leads the Bulls in both scoring and assists with 19.9 PPG and 5.9 APG respectively. Rose has averaged nearly 25 PPG over his past 6 games, raising his game to All Star status. For the season, the Bulls only average 95.4 PPG, the 4th lowest point total in the NBA.

Bulls are 6-0 ATS last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 5-0 last 5 vs. a team with a winning SU record.

Key Injuries - C Jerome James (Achilles) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 99

Hawks (-7, O/U 197): Atlanta has lost 3 of their past 5 games SU, all on the road. Luckily for the Hawks, they are playing at home tonight, where they are 20-5 SU on the season. The Hawks are 31-17 SU on the season, placing them 4th in the Eastern Conference playoff chase. The Hawks are 17-8 ATS at home this season, and 12-6 ATS as a single digit home favorite this season. The Hawks have lost 3 consecutive games ATS heading into tonight's game. The Hawks had won 5 straight games against the Bulls before losing SU in overtime in their last meeting. The Hawks are 7th in the NBA in scoring at 102.2 PPG this season. G Joe Johnson leads the Hawks in scoring with 22 PPG, and he's been especially hot of late averaging nearly 26 PPG over his past 12 games. 4 other Hawks average double digits for the Hawks, including super sub G Jamal Crawford. Crawford averages 17.6 PPG off the bench for the Hawks.

Hawks are 9-3 ATS last 12 games vs. a team with a losing SU record.
Over is 6-0 last 6 vs. a team with a losing SU record.

Key Injuries - None.

PROJECTED SCORE: 104 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Phoenix Suns at Sacramento Kings

Suns (-3, O/U 220.5): Phoenix has won 4 straight games, with their prime time TV game against Dallas last week serving as a spark for this Suns team. The Suns are 30-21 SU on the season, and currently sit 6th in the Western Conference playoff chase. Despite their success this season, the Suns still struggle on the road. The Suns are 12-15 SU and 14-13 ATS on the road this season. Phoenix is 5-5 ATS as the listed road favorite this season. The Suns always get excited to face the Kings, as they've won 14 of the past 16 meetings SU. F Amar'e Stoudemire leads a group of 6 Suns averaging double digits in PTS. Despite strong trade rumors, Stoudemire has averaged 27 PPG and 13 RPG over his past 3 games. The Suns have scored more than 100 PTS in 22 of their past 23 games, and lead the NBA with 110 PPG this season. PG Steve Nash has averaged more than 30 PPG the past 4 times combined that he's faced off against the Kings.

Suns are 4-0 ATS last 4 games overall.
Over is 12-4 last 16 vs. Western Conference.

Key Injuries - G Leandro Barbosa (wrist) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 114 (Side of the Day)

Kings: Certainly the Kings will be looking for revenge tonight, as they've lost both meetings this season to the Suns in close, hard fought games. 2010 hasn't been kind to Sacramento as they've lost 15 of their 17 games SU, with only 5 wins ATS for added measure. The Kings are 16-32 SU for the season, but they have performed well at home. The Kings are 13-11 SU and 11-12-1 ATS at home this season. Sacramento is 6-5-1 ATS as the listed favorite this season. However, the Kings haven't won a game ATS that they were favored in since December 12th of last year. This Kings offense is starting to wear down, as they've been held under 100 PTS in 6 of their last 8 games. 6 Kings players average double digits, with both Guards Kevin Martin and Tyreke Evans averaging more than 20 PPG. Martin is still out due to injury, but Evans has the inside track for Rookie of the Year. Evans averages 20.7 PPG, and a team high 5 APG this season.

Kings are 2-8 ATS last 10 games as a home underdog.
Under is 6-2 last 8 vs. Western Conference.

Key Injuries - F Jason Thompson (personal) is doubtful.
F Francisco Garcia (forearm) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 104