Inside the Paint - Friday
By Chris David
Gamblers playing the ‘over’ have been cashing tickets left and right at the counter lately and the trends might not changed based on the current numbers posted at the books lately.
The month of February has watched the ‘over’ go 22-7 (76%) in the first 29 games, including a 10-1 mark on Wednesday. All three games slated for Thursday have totals listed at 206 and above.
Will the trends continue through the weekend?
Let’s look at tonight’s games and more importantly the totals!
Atlanta at Charlotte: If there is a game that looks like an ‘under’ play on paper, this could be the one. The last three in this series have gone ‘under’ the total, including both battles this season. Atlanta (25-22) and Charlotte (26-22) have both been ‘under’ teams this year as well. Larry Brown and the Bobcats were on a little bit of an offensive roll lately but that came to abrupt halt last week. The team managed 74, 99 and 86 points in its last three games and they face a Hawks (96.7) team that is in the upper third in points per game allowed. The Bobcats (94.2 PPG) are a tad better but that’s also due to Brown’s slow-it-down style.
Orlando at Indiana: Two jump shooting teams square off and if you’re betting on this ball game to go ‘over’, you’re hoping for the bombs to drop. The Magic (26.2) and Pacers (20.7) are ranked second and fifth in 3-point attempts per game. Also, Indiana leads the league with 86.4 field goal attempts per game, which means the pace will certainly be here on Friday. Tonight’s matchup will be the fourth and final meeting of the year. Two of the first three went ‘over’ the total, including Orlando’s 135-111 victory against Indiana last Tuesday. Will we see another 246 combined points? If both teams shoot over 50 percent and combined for 24 treys from downtown again, then I would say yes. One bad quarter (below 50 points) with a total this high will crush you. The opening number (218.5) is the highest number of the four games this season. Indiana will be playing two games in two nights here and has seen the ‘over’ go 7-5 on the backend.
Boston at New York: Talk about a tough stretch for the Knicks, huh? Just when Mike D’Antoni and New York (6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS) were getting hot, they were humbled by LeBron (52) and the Cavs (107-102) before Kobe (61) and the Lakers (126-117) the last two contests. Will Friday be Pierce and the Celtics turn? Considering Boston lost to New York 100-88 on Jan. 4 at MSG, revenge could be on its mind. The Knicks have watched the ‘over’ cash in four straight but the ‘under’ still stands at 27-21 on the season. Boston has been an ‘under’ team (27-22) too this year, especially on the road (17-7). The Celtics are set up for a possible letdown in this spot, especially with the showdown versus the Lakers on Thursday. Gamblers should note that Boston has gone 8-3 SU and 4-7 ATS on zero days rest, plus the ‘under’ has gone 9-2 (82%).
L.A. Clippers at Memphis: This matchup between two of the worst teams in the league is a tough total to handicap. The Clippers and Grizzlies have both seen the ‘over’ hit in four straight games but a lot of that has to do with their defensive efforts. Both Washington (94 PPG) and Memphis (93.5 PPG) aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts but both are limited defensively. This could be one of those games that put up a 60-plus point total in one quarter and then a 35-spot in the next. The first meeting this season saw Memphis drop Los Angeles 93-81 on Dec. 5, and the combined 174 points never threatened the closing total of 199.
Portland at Oklahoma City: The Trail Blazers were a solid ‘under’ look in the first-half of the season but lately that has changed. The ‘over’ has gone 4-1 in the last five and the club has shown the ability to push the rock. Oklahoma City has also been increasing its pace, evidenced by a 3-1 ‘over’ run recently. The Thunder are averaging 108.8 PPG during this stretch and giving up 112 PPG. Ironically, the opening number (201) came out kind of high, considering six of the last seven in this series have gone ‘under’, including four in a row.
Denver at Washington: Lots of ‘questionable’ injuries in this matchup, which has prevented the oddsmakers from releasing an early total. Based on recent history, the ‘over’ would be worth a look. The last three have all gone ‘over’ and the numbers ranged from 209 to 212. The Wizards (101.6 PPG) and Nuggets (100.5 PPG) aren’t exactly brick walls on the defensive side, which should create a quick pace.
Toronto at New Orleans: Another battle with key players listed as ‘doubtful’ or ‘out’ come Friday. The Raptors could be without Chris Bosh and Jose Calderon, while the Hornets will miss Chris Paul and Tyson Chandler. Defensively, New Orleans will miss Paul and Chandler more and that could lead to some easy points from Toronto. The Raptors have watched the ‘over’ go 15-11 on the road this year, while the Hornets have seen the ‘under’ go 14-9 in the Big Easy.
Utah at Sacramento: If you follow the NBA nightly, then you know the Kings are arguably the worst defensive team in the league. They can’t stop anybody, allowing 108.8 PPG and opponents to shoot 48.2 percent from the floor, which is the worst in the league. Did we mention they allow a league-high 30.2 free throw attempts as well? The Jazz don’t own a potent defense comparable to past years and they’re running a tad more too. However, the status of point guard Deron Williams is up in the air for tonight. Even without him, this game could still look like an “And 1” street game. Six of the previous seven battles have gone ‘over’ the number, but this year’s lone meeting did go ‘under’ when Utah edged Sacramento 99-94 at ARCO Arena on Dec. 2. Fatigue shouldn’t be an excuse here for the Kings, since they haven’t played since Monday. Utah will be in a back-to-back situation after playing Dallas on Thursday. Jerry Sloan’s team is a dreadful 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS on zero days rest and the ‘over’ has gone 8-4. I dare you to take the Kings/Over parlay!
Golden State at Phoenix: Déjà Vu in the desert? Golden State torched Phoenix 124-112 on Wednesday and the combined 236 points easily jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 227. The ‘over’ is on a 7-0 run in this series and oddsmakers put out a number of 230 for Friday. Of the last seven battles during this sequence, all of the ‘over’ tickets have been fairly easy too. Normally, this writer likes to look at the vice versa approach and come back with the ‘under’ but a pass might be the better play. If you do look at, perhaps a first-half play or first quarter wager is more possible, since blowouts tend to slow down in the second-half. This game is a nationally televised tilt on ESPN, which means the number should rise off the opener too.
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Hot and Cold Bets - Week 14
By Matt Fargo
The NBA is approaching the All-Star break and this is a big stretch for some teams before taking some time off. Matt Fargo will be looking into Hot and Cold NBA bets throughout the season and he takes a look at four games that you will want to pay attention to coming up over the weekend.
NBA Hot Bets
Friday – Boston Celtics at New York Knicks 7:35 PM ET
This is a tough spot for the Celtics who are coming off a massive game on Thursday against the Lakers. Win or lose, that is a difficult game to rebound from. Boston will be playing for some revenge as it came into New York on January 4th and lost by 12 points. That was the first of four straight defeats before running off 12 consecutive wins. The Celtics were 7-0-1 ATS in the prior eight meetings before that latest setback with New York. The Knicks are playing some excellent basketball right now despite coming off a loss on Wednesday against Cleveland. It has been a tough week with that game following a game against the Lakers. The Knicks were rolling along with six wins in its last seven games before the Lakers came to town. New York is on an 8-1 ATS run and is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games going back to that Boston victory. That has improved the Knicks ATS mark at home to 15-10.
NBA Cold Bets
Friday – Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies 8:05 PM ET
Oh what can you say about the Clippers? This team is playing horrible right now as injuries have taken their toll and completely disrupted the chemistry of this team. Los Angeles is tied with Washington for the worst record in the NBA and its 20-29 ATS record is certainly nothing to be proud of. The Clippers have dropped seven straight games heading into this contest and none of those have been close. All seven setbacks have been by at least 12 points with an average scoring margin of 20.3 ppg. The Grizzlies have won two in a row for the first time since mid-December and those two victories snapped a 12-game losing streak. New head coach Lionel Hollins may be on to something although it is too little, too late. Memphis does own the worst ATS record in the league at 17-30-1 but it is 6-5 ATS at home against losing teams. The favorite has covered six of the last eight in this series and the home team is on a 4-0 ATS run. Both of those runs will favor Memphis on Friday.
NBA Today
SCOREBOARD
Friday, Feb. 6
Boston at New York (7:30 p.m. EST). After giving up 61 points to Kobe Bryant on Monday and 52 to LeBron James on Wednesday, the Knicks conclude their “Dream Week” homestand against the defending champion Celtics, whose 12-game win streak ended against the Lakers on Thursday.
STARS
Thursday
— Kobe Bryant, Lakers, scored 26 points and grabbed 10 rebounds to lead Los Angeles to a 110-109 overtime victory over Boston that snapped the Celtics’ 12-game winning streak.
— Deron Williams, Jazz, shook off a deep thigh bruise and scored 34 points and handed out 12 assists to lead Utah to a 115-87 rout of Dallas.
— Samuel Dalembert, 76ers, had 18 points and 20 rebounds in Philadelphia’s 99-94 victory over Indiana.
STREAKS
The Los Angeles Lakers snapped the Boston Celtics’ 12-game winning streak with a 110-109 overtime victory Thursday night in a matchup of last season’s NBA finalists. Boston, 0-2 against Los Angeles, trails the Lakers by percentage points for the best overall record in the NBA, and would lose a tiebreaker for home-court advantage in the finals—if they both make it back.
SEEING DOUBLE
Samuel Dalembert had 18 points and 20 rebounds, Andre Miller had 13 points and 12 assists, while Andre Iguodala had 20 points and 11 assists to help Philadelphia snap a two-game losing streak with a 99-94 win over Indiana on Thursday night. The Sixers’ last game with three players recording double-doubles was Nov. 14—also against the Pacers.
SIGNAL CALLER
Dallas had won four straight since coach Rick Carlisle put Jason Kidd in charge of calling plays, but the streak ended Thursday night as the Mavericks were routed 115-87 at Utah.
STEPPING IN
Boston Celtics guard Ray Allen will replace injured Orlando guard Jameer Nelson next week in the NBA All-Star game. Allen was added to the Eastern Conference team Thursday by commissioner David Stern after Nelson was forced to pull out because of a torn labrum in his right shoulder. Allen joins teammates Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett on the roster for the Feb. 15 game in Phoenix.
SIDELINED
Elton Brand’s comeback from a separated right shoulder is over and the two-time All-Star power forward will have season-ending surgery on Monday. All the Philadelphia 76ers got in the first year of a five-year, $80 million contract from the player they expected to help win them a round or two in the Eastern Conference playoffs was an average of 13.8 points and 8.8 rebounds in only 29 games.
SWAPPED
Orlando traded shooting guard Keith Bogans to Milwaukee for point guard Tyronn Lue on Thursday after the Southeast Division-leading Magic lost All-Star Jameer Nelson to a serious shoulder injury. Milwaukee, which also got cash in the deal, is without top scorer Michael Redd for the rest of the season after he tore ligaments in his left knee in a win against Sacramento on Jan. 24.
SPEAKING
“I wish we would have come here last year with this kind of attitude. Nobody backed down. We were as physical as anybody.”—Los Angeles center Pau Gasol, who scored 24 points and had 14 rebounds Thursday night to help the Lakers to a 110-109 overtime victory over Boston. It was a rematch of last year’s NBA finals, in which the Celtics outmuscled the Lakers to the title.
ATLANTA vs. CHARLOTTE
Atlanta is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Charlotte is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Charlotte is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
ORLANDO vs. INDIANA
Orlando is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Orlando is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Indiana is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Indiana is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
BOSTON vs. NEW YORK
Boston is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New York
Boston is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against New York
New York is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Boston
New York is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Boston
DENVER vs. WASHINGTON
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Denver
Washington is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Denver
LA CLIPPERS vs. MEMPHIS
LA Clippers are 5-17 SU in their last 22 games when playing on the road against Memphis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 6 games when playing on the road against Memphis
Memphis is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing LA Clippers
Memphis is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing LA Clippers
PORTLAND vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Portland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oklahoma City
Portland is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games when playing Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Portland
TORONTO vs. NEW ORLEANS
Toronto is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
UTAH vs. SACRAMENTO
Utah is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Sacramento
Utah is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Sacramento
Sacramento is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Utah
Sacramento is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Utah
GOLDEN STATE vs. PHOENIX
Golden State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Golden State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Phoenix is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games
Hot Teams
-- Magic won, covered four of last five games.
-- Celtics had their 12-game winning streak snapped last night at home. Knicks covered eight of their last nine games.
-- Nuggets won nine of their last eleven games.
-- Grizzlies won last two games by 16-11 points, after losing 12 games in a row before that.
-- Trailblazers won five of their last six games.
-- Warriors are 6-3-1 vs spread in their last ten games.
Cold Teams
-- Pacers lost last three games by 9-5-5 points.
-- Hawks lost three of their last four road games. Bobcats lost last three games, by 14-11-19 points.
-- Raptors lost last four games, by 11-23-18-8 points. Chris Paul is hurt, and Hornets also lost last four games, by 4-13-8-14.
-- Wizards lost six of their last eight games.
-- Clippers lost their last seven games (0-7 vs spread).
-- Oklahoma City lost last three games, by 20-1-4 points.
-- Kings lost nine of last ten games (3-7 vs spread).
-- Suns lost eight of their last twelve games.
Totals
-- Three of last four Indiana games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-6-1 in last sixteen Atlanta road games.
-- Five of last six Boston games went over the total.
-- Last three New Orleans games all went over the total.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Denver games.
-- Clippers' last four games all went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Oklahoma City games went over the total.
-- Four of last five games at Arco Arena went over the total.
-- Three of last four Phoenix games went over the total.
Back-to Back
-- Pacers are 5-8 vs spread if they played the night before.
-- Hawks are 0-3 vs spread on road if they play at home the next nite.
-- Raptors are 2-6 vs spread if they play again the next night.
-- Denver is 7-4-1 vs spread if it plays again the next night.
-- Memphis is 4-1 vs spread at home if they play again the next night.
-- Utah is 3-7 vs spread if it played the night before.