Friday's Best NBA Bet
Orlando Magic at Golden State Warriors (4.5, 207.5)
The Orlando Magic snapped a two-game losing streak by slipping by Sacramento on Wednesday with Dwight Howard back in the lineup after he served a one-game suspension.
But they weren’t happy about it.
Orlando had to hold on when Howard fouled out late in the game and the 106-102 victory as a 10-point favorite was far from impressive.
"We didn't play well," point guard Jameer Nelson told reporters. "If we think it's OK, it's not. We have to change what we do. It's not on anybody but us. It's not on offense; it's on defense. We can't flip the switch for the playoffs. We're not good enough."
Nelson has a point, but we like Orlando at this number on Friday. The Magic head into this matchup having won five straight games against the Warriors, who have only two wins in their last nine games.
Pick: Orlando
NBA Betting Preview: Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
By: Stephen Nover
Only the San Antonio Spurs have a better record than the 46-16 Boston Celtics.
But when it comes to being the point spread champion, only the New York Knicks rate as high as the Philadelphia 76ers, who are 40-23-1 (63 percent) ATS.
The 76ers host the Celtics Friday at 4:05 p.m. PT.
This doesn’t figure to be an easy game for the banged-up Celtics, who have failed to cover in two close victories against the 76ers this season.
Shaquille O’Neal remains out with a sore Achilles. Glen Davis isn’t expected to play due to a strained left patella tendon and Delonte West has missed the past six games with a sprained right ankle.
The Celtics are doing a late-season makeover working in newcomers Troy Murphy, Sasha Pavlovic and backup point guard Carlos Arroyo.
Nenad Krstic and Jeff Green have played in only six games for Boston since arriving via trade from Oklahoma City.
All this newness caught up to Boston in an upset by the Los Angeles Clippers, 108-103, on Wednesday. The Celtics lost as nine-point home favorites despite holding Blake Griffin to 12 points and the Clippers not having Eric Gordon. The combined 211 points flew ‘over’ the 192-point total.
The defeat snapped a five-game Boston winning streak. The Celtics rank No. 2 defensively holding foes to 91.9 points per game, but have upped their scoring lately.
Boston is averaging 103 points in its last six games, which is five points higher than its season scoring average. During their past 12 contests, Boston averaged 91.3 points. The Celtics are shooting 42 percent from 3-point range during this span. They had been making 30.7 percent from beyond the arc in their previous dozen games.
The ‘over’ has cashed in five of Boston’s last six games. In four of these instances the ‘over’ has gone above the total by at least 13 points. The Celtics are missing much of their former tough interior defense with center Kendrick Perkins traded to Oklahoma City and O’Neal and Davis sidelined.
Krstic, Green, Pavlovic and Murphy are more offensive-minded players.
The ‘over’ has cashed in eight of the 76ers’ last 10 games. Philadelphia is averaging 112.7 points in its last four games.
Philadelphia opened 3-13 with new coach Doug Collins. Since then, though, the 76ers have gone 30-18 and are chasing New York for the fifth spot in the Eastern Conference standings. Only six teams have a better record than Philadelphia since its turnaround started on Nov. 27.
The 76ers have covered 32 of their last 48 games, including suffering a 110-105 home overtime loss to Oklahoma City this past Wednesday as 1 ½-point favorites. The combined 215 points went ‘over’ the 206½-point total. The teams put up 202 points during regulation.
Philadelphia has been particularly strong at home covering 62 percent of the time in going 20-12 ATS.
Versatile swingman Andre Iguodala is averaging 14 points, eight assists and nearly eight rebounds per game during his past nine matchups. Elton Brand is having a strong comeback season averaging a team-best 15.2 points and 8.7 rebounds per game.
The 76ers also have one of the strongest benches in the league thanks to Thaddeus Young, Louis Williams and rookie Evan Turner.
It took a layup by Kevin Garnett with 1.4 seconds left to allow the Celtics to nip the 76ers, 102-101, on Dec. 9 in the first meeting between the two clubs. Boston was six-point favorites and the combined 203 points went ‘over’ the 189 ½-point total. The 76ers led by 10 points in the third quarter.
The Celtics failed to cover in the rematch on Dec. 22, winning 84-80 as nine-point home favorites. The combined 164 points dipped well ‘under’ the 191½-point total. The 76ers led in the fourth quarter.
Chicago Bulls host Hawks in NBA betting rematch
By: Adam Markowitz
It was only nine days ago when the Atlanta Hawks took out the Chicago Bulls at home in NBA betting action. The Bulls will look to get even on their home court Friday when these teams lock horns once again in a clash between two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference.
Tip-off from the Windy City's United Center comes a little past 5:00 p.m. (PT).
The bad news for the Hawks is that they have really looked terrible since that March 2 win over the Bulls, and they haven't had to play a road game in that run either. Atlanta has been beaten and beaten badly by fellow playoff contenders Oklahoma City, New York and the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday.
Josh Smith got back into the lineup after missing two games, including that one against Chicago, and he has played incredibly well, averaging 16.5 PPG, 3.5 APG and 8.5 RPG in the two most recent efforts. Unfortunately, one of his inside counterparts, Marvin Williams, has not played well. He hasn't scored even in double digits since the duel against the Bulls, averaging just 6.7 PPG in that stretch.
The interesting man to watch is Kirk Hinrich who will only be playing in his seventh game since being traded from the Washington Wizards at the NBA trade deadline. Hinrich is shooting 50.0 percent from the field and 56.5 percent from long range since the trade, and is averaging 11.2 PPG.
Meanwhile, the Bulls haven't lost since that defeat in the Peach State, winning four straight games against some very difficult foes. The defense has played fantastic ball all season long, but particularly in this stretch.
Chicago has only allowed 91.4 PPG on the season, and the club ranks No. 1 in that department as well as field goal percentage (42.9%) and three-point field goal percentage (32.6%).
Derrick Rose has put together four straight games with at least 20 points since getting shut down by Hinrich and company. Rose, the potential MVP of the league, is averaging 24.5 PPG and 8.1 APG this season, and he is also chipping in on the glass with 4.3 RPG.
If Rose is getting rebounds, you know that you're in trouble against the Bulls. Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah are both capable of double digits in boards per night, while Luol Deng, Taj Gibson and Kurt Thomas are also big-time rebounders as well. There's a reason that this team is averaging a whopping 44.3 boards on the average night, ranking No. 2 in the league.
Of course, Boozer is probably out of this one with an ankle injury, which should make a huge difference for the relatively undersized Hawks.
Even though the Bulls are 27-4 on their home court this year, the edge on the NBA odds really might go to the Hawks. They have covered seven out of eight in this series, and they only have an OT loss here at the United Center last year as well. However, Chicago is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall, and it really has played fantastic ball over the course of the last month or so.
NBA Previews
by Dan Bebe
Portland Trailblazers @ Charlotte Bobcats with a total of N/A
Charlotte might officially be in the radioactive category - they might get massive line value on a nightly basis between now and, well, when they win again, but this team is simply playing so horribly that I can't in good faith tell anyone to back them. As far as Portland is concerned, they won in Orlando and Miami, and they're hot. In fact, they beat Charlotte, at home, by 24 in the game just prior to this road trip. I don't want to back the Blazers with the Bobcats on revenge from that ugly loss, and I don't want to back the Blazers between games with Orlando, Miami and next, Atlanta. This is the sandwich affair, and I only wish we had any reason to act on Charlotte's behalf. Perhaps Tyrus Thomas and Stephen Jackson will play, and maybe then they'll have a little confidence? Sigh. Lean to CHARLOTTE and the OVER.
Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5) @ New Jersey Nets with a total of 191.5
The Nets came through with a gusty win over the Warriors, netting us (pun intended) a nice little win on Wednesday in their first game without Deron Williams. However, his absence might just catch up with Jersey in this game. Why? Simple - Jersey was able to beat the Warriors because of Lopez and Humphries in the paint, dominating the glass. They won't be able to crush the Clippers near the rim the way they did the Warriors. Blake Griffin is a monster, and both DeAndre Jordan and Chris Kaman can rebound, as well. I like the confidence the Clips are showing, and they actually lost to the Nets, at home, way back in November. I also like that this is not the end of the Clippers road trip, so they'll try to keep the momentum going. The Nets host Boston next, so there's a slight potential to look to that game. Lean to CLIPPERS and the OVER.
Boston Celtics (-2) @ Philadelphia 76ers with a total of 188
Boston's been an ATS mess lately because of porous defense, while Philadelphia continues to storm along, outside of a tough overtime loss to the Thunder in their most recent game. My concern with betting the side in this game is simply that the Sixers are going to try to bounce back from a heartbreaking defeat, while Boston laying only 2 is almost like a pick-the-winner spot. I believe this game will be hotly contested, since Philadelphia has done a nice job of hanging with Boston both times these teams have met, and though the Sixers haven't won either of those games, they've covered both. Not much else to say about this game - both teams want it, no real scheduling quirks, and no huge revenge angles, since the previous meetings occurred in December. PASS on the side, slight totals lean to the OVER, courtesy of Boston's weakened defense.
Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors with a total of N/A
Let's see, who is sucking harder? Is it Toronto, losers of 3 straight and 5 of 6? Is it Indy, losers of 5 in a row, and a team that somehow managed to shoot 29% for a GAME in Minnesota? Tough call. I guess Indiana is coming off the uglier game, and it at least looks like Toronto is trying a little more? I'm not sure I can advocate backing Indiana right now - this team is in freefall, and even though I tend to like teams to bounce back off nauseating performances like the one the Pacers had in Minneapolis, Toronto is the team on double revenge in this matchup, and even though Toronto's lost 3 straight, one of those was in 3-OT in London, and the most recent was a 2-point defeat at the hands of the Jazz. I think I'd probably value the double revenge and slightly better recent efforts at a little more important than the bounceback factor, so very small lean to TORONTO and the OVER, since I can't imagine Indy shoots under 30% again...can they?
Detroit Pistons @ Oklahoma City Thunder (-9) with a total of 206.5
Let's get revenge out of the way quickly - these teams played on the second day of the regular season, and Oklahoma won by a single point in Motown. No one remembers that game. The more important stats on this game are that Detroit is playing an up-tempo brand of basketball, seemingly not concerned with results as much as just getting through the season without in-fighting. Fortunately, things were so bad in Detroit, that just "not fighting" for 48 minutes has been enough to cover some big spreads. Unfortunately, spreads are slowly coming down. Detroit was catching 12+ in San Antonio, and that's down to just 9 here. If I'm taking the Pistons, I'd want double digits. On the total, both teams are focused on scoring only - this might be a hair inflated, but I still think if the teams shoot the ball near their season average, we could squeak out a 210ish final score. PASS on the side, totals lean OVER.
Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls with a total of N/A
And just when Chicago looked like the best team in the East, Carlos Boozer goes down with an ankle injury. He'll be back, but it does slow Chicago down just a hair. The question for us, though, isn't so much how Chicago will deal with his absence, since we know they can still win games a man short, but instead, whether Chicago can finally overcome the Hawks. I also wonder if the betting public will put more stock in Chicago's hot play or Atlanta's recent stretch of solid play against these very Bulls. I'm inclined to think the public is going to side with red-hot Chicago (pun intended, again), but then, what do I know. We should get a slightly deflated line with the Bulls in this game, thanks to Boozer's injury, so with revenge on the brain, I can't help but think I'm going to end up with the rest of the 4-sided fellas...square lean to CHICAGO and the OVER.
Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of N/A
I'm hoping we see a line that gives the Wolves some points, but something tells me it's going to look an awful lot like what we saw when the Jazz visited Toronto - very short. Utah is struggling to figure things out the second half of the year, and even though they've looked, let's say, a tiny bit more respectable the last week, some of that can just be pinned on playing beatable teams. The Jazz might get Mehmet Okur back, but I'm not sure he'll make much of a difference with the way that team plays (or doesn't play) defense. The Wolves, meanwhile, seem to be getting into another of those short stretches of games where they find ways to cover big numbers. This would be the 3rd or 4th time this year Minny has looked capable of covering, but because I'm expecting them to need to win to cover this one (or stay within a bucket), that might be asking a bit much. Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Minnesota get its first division win in March, but I doubt it's a greater than 53% shot. Tiny lean to the WOLVES, and I mean tiny, and the UNDER.
Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs (-11.5) with a total of 208
I don't know if the Spurs are necessarily slowing down, but it seems like the team's desire to crush opponents isn't what it was a few months ago. Sure, San Antonio made a statement in their win against the Heat, but the team has only covered 2 of 8 games since the Break, and lost the game right before the Break, as well. It just seems like the intensity isn't the same, and the first thing to go is usually defense. Teams are pretty consistently shooting in the mid-to-high 40% range against the Spurs, and that's allowing clubs to stay within 10 points. Will that be the case, here? I'm inclined to think that it will be. The Kings got blasted at home by the Spurs a little over a month back, so the Kings are on revenge, and on top of that, the Kings are still showing the ability to hang with most teams in the NBA, just not actually get a "W" against many of them. I think the Kings can stay inside that dozen - lean to the KINGS and the OVER.
Orlando Magic (-5) @ Golden State Warriors with a total of 207.5
It doesn't happen all that often, but in this particular case, the Magic are the team in the better travel situation, even though they're on the road. Golden State returns from a 7-game road trip that wrapped up with a loss in Jersey on Wednesday. This team hasn't rested in quite some time, so this first game back is a true sluggish spot. Yes, it is a tad disconcerting that the Magic beat the hell out of the Warriors when these teams met in Florida in mid-January, but Orlando's size advantage against a team that doesn't rebound that well cannot be overstated. The Warriors struggle with big teams (as well as teams that play like themselves, but better, like the Suns). The Warriors have success against balanced teams where they can try to exploit matchups. Here, Orlando should win the rebound battle, and it's tough to see the Warriors overcoming that, if indeed the Magic play with some heart. Yes, the first game home angle outweighs the revenge in this one - lean to the MAGIC and the UNDER.