Friday’s Best NBA Bet
Cleveland Cavaliers at New York Knicks (-12, 217.5)
The Knicks are poised for some serious revenge to start the weekend.
The Cavaliers stunned the Knicks 115-109 last week in Ohio, taking away all the momentum New York had gained since upsetting the Heat in the prior game. Cleveland won the game by controlling the paint and playing physical. The Cavaliers made a whopping 31-of-44 free throws and held a 62-42 edge on rebounds.
But this time will be a little different.
The Cavaliers will be missing Antawn Jamison (finger), the team’s leading scorer who went off for 28 points and 13 boards with no turnovers in the victory. Cleveland also is expected to give some burn to the recently acquired Baron Davis for the first time in this game. For a player known to stop trying on bad teams, this isn’t necessarily a good thing.
The Knicks, meanwhile, are coming off a 107-88 beatdown of the Hornets and are playing more consistently. The team may miss lead guard Chauncey Billups (thigh), but Toney Douglas has been serviceable as his replacement in small doses, finishing with 24 points, five assists and four rebounds in the win over New Orleans.
"I talked to him this morning," Billups said of Douglas. "I told him, 'Try not to defer so much to the guys. When you call a plan, just run it no matter what people say or what you might feel. Be in command out there.’
"And I know it's probably tough for him as a young player playing with those studs like that, guys that are alpha males. So I know it's a difficult position for him, but I told him, 'Be confident in what you do.'"
Pick: New York
Grizzlies and Hornets battle Friday NBA odds
By: Adam Markowitz
After months of sitting in no worse than third place in the Southwest Division, the New Orleans Hornets could fall out of that spot on Friday night when they take on the Memphis Grizzlies in NBA betting action.
These two teams are separated by just a half-game in the standings, and they currently sit in the No. 6 and No. 7 holes in the Western Conference. Neither one is safe by any means yet, and both are going to want to get a huge upper hand on the other on Friday night (5:00 PT).
The only thing that has been consistent about the Hornets this year has been their inconsistency. This is a team that has had winning streaks of seven and 10 games, and also a team that has failed to beat the NBA odds in streaks of nine out of 12 and nine out of 11.
Now, New Orleans has put three straight in the loss column to fall back into this tenuous spot, and it will have to hope that the tide once again turns to prove victorious on the road on Friday.
Trevor Ariza is considered questionable with a groin injury for this game, and if he can't go, the number of relatively good scoring options are really slashed for the Hornets. They do have David West (19.1 PPG) and Emeka Okafor (10.7 PPG), but aside from these two and the infamous Chris Paul, there aren't any double-digit scorers on a regular basis.
The hope is that Carl Landry, acquired from Sacramento before the NBA's trade deadline, can continue to play as well as he has in recent games. Landry has put up 9.5 PPG and 3.0 RPG since the deal with the Kings.
Meanwhile in Memphis, the Grizzlies are really playing playoff caliber ball right now, and they're doing so without Rudy Gay in the lineup. Gay has been out since February 15, and there is a chance that he could be out for the rest of the season.
If that's really the case, men like Zach Randolph and Mike Conley Jr. have to step to the forefront on a regular basis. These two really do make up a great duo. Randolph provides all of the pop on the inside that the team needs, averaging 20.2 PPG and 13.1 RPG, while Conley is a great distributor with 13.9 PPG and 6.5 APG.
Beyond that though, it really is a great team effort. The Grizz rank just above the middle of the pack in both scoring (100.0 PPG) and team defense (98.0 PPG), and all of these numbers are adding up right now to a side that thinks that it will be heading into the postseason this year to challenge some of the best teams that the NBA has to offer.
Unfortunately for New Orleans, virtually everything is going against it in this one. The Hornets are on that bad skid right now, and are only 3-13 ATS the last 16 games. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 34-16-1 ATS over the course of their last 51 games, the best mark in NBA betting action in that time span.
To make matters worse, Memphis has covered three in a row in this series to boot, and has won two of the three. In fact, the Hornets haven't won a game in this series in regulation time in five tries, though they do have two OT victories to show for their work.
Tips and Trends
Toronto Raptors at New Jersey Nets
RAPTORS: Toronto has headed to Europe on a high of sorts, as they beat New Orleans as the listed underdog in their last game. Victories have been few and far between this season, as the Raptors have the 3rd worst record in the Eastern Conference. Toronto is 17-44 SU and 26-33-2 ATS overall this season. The Raptors are 21-24 ATS as the listed underdog this year. The Raptors are 3-6 ATS after playing 3 or more consecutive home games. C Andrea Bargnani is averaging a team high 21.8 PPG this year, as well as 5.5 RPG. G DeMar DeRozan is having a breakout season this year, as he's averaging 16.1 PPG this year. DeRozan is proving to be more than just a dunk artist, as he also has the ability to play lockdown defense. The Raptors are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games overall. Toronto is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win. The Raptors are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games against a team with a losing SU record. Toronto is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against the Eastern Conference. The Raptors are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 Friday games. Toronto is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
Raptors are 0-7 ATS last 7 games as a road underdog.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400%.
Key Injuries - F Reggie Evans (foot) is questionable.
Projected Score: 103
NETS: (-2.5, O/U 201.5) New Jersey is in the midst of a 6 game SU losing streak. Despite their struggles, the team is still full of optimism thanks to the addition of PG Deron Williams. The Nets took Phoenix to OT in their last game, ultimately losing by 1 point. New Jersey is 17-43 SU and 28-32 ATS overall this year. The Nets currently have the 4th worst record in the Eastern Conference. New Jersey is 3-4 ATS as the listed favorite this season. The Nets organization is very proud to be playing the first NBA regular season set of games in Europe ever. New Jersey lost by 6 points earlier this season in Toronto. C Brook Lopez leads the Nets in scoring this year, as he averages 19.5 PPG. G Anthony Morrow is averaging 13 PPG this year, making nearly two 3 pointers per game. The Nets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. New Jersey is 18-39-1 ATS in their last 58 games against a team with a losing SU record. The Nets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of up to 4.5 points. New Jersey is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win.
Nets are 1-10 ATS last 11 games against the NBA Atlantic.
Over is 7-0 last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Key Injuries - G Deron Williams (wrist) is probable.
Projected Score: 106 (OVER-Total of the Day)
Friday NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Friday NBA card is expanding past U.S. borders as the Raptors and Nets will play a pair of games in London over the next two days. Even though that matchup won't turn many heads, three contests have playoff ramifications, including the Heat finishing off a back-to-back at San Antonio. We'll start in central Florida with the Magic hosting the road-weary Bulls at the Amway Center.
Bulls at Magic
These two teams will likely have home-court advantage in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs as Orlando hosts Chicago for the first time this season. The two clubs have split a pair of games at the United Center, while each squad is coming off significantly different finishes in their last outing.
The Magic overcame a 24-point deficit in a resounding upset of the Heat in Miami last night, 99-96 as five-point underdogs. Miami shot lights out in the first half (62%), but the tables turned in the second half as the Magic limited the Heat to just 33 points. Orlando knocked down 16 three-pointers, while Miami was three of 17 from downtown in its second straight home loss.
The Bulls felt the same pain as the Heat on Wednesday night in Atlanta. Chicago jumped out to a 14-0 lead out of the gate, while building a 17-point halftime lead. The Hawks rallied back to steal an 83-80 victory as 3 ½-point home 'dogs, snapping a three-game winning streak for the Bulls. Chicago had won four of its previous five road games prior to the meltdown in Atlanta, as the Bulls start an important trip through the Sunshine State.
Tom Thibodeau's club lost to the Magic in the first meeting this season, 107-78 on December 1, as the Bulls returned home from their annual Circus road trip. Throw in the first game back from a seven-game road swing along with the debut of Carlos Boozer and it spelled disaster. Chicago fell behind by 18 at the half, while getting outrebounded by a 44-21 margin.
The Bulls came back with a stronger effort the next time around as short home underdogs in a 99-90 win on January 28. A 34-17 third quarter run erased a five-point halftime deficit for Chicago, as Boozer responded with a 16-point, 16-rebound effort to give the Bulls their fourth straight win at the time. Chicago will try to improve on an 8-4 ATS mark as a road underdog, while owning a 4-1 ATS ledger in this role off a loss.
Thunder at Hawks
Oklahoma City has hit the wall recently with losses in three of its last four games as the Thunder travels to Atlanta to take on the Hawks. Reigning scoring champion Kevin Durant is listed as 'doubtful' with an ankle injury suffered in Wednesday's victory over Indiana following a collision with Pacers' forward Tyler Hansbrough.
The Thunder is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in the four games without Durant this season, with each contest coming on the highway. The two ATS victories came as underdogs in outright triumphs at Boston and Milwaukee, as former Thunder forward Jeff Green also missed those wins with injury. Even though Oklahoma City dominated Indiana, the Thunder dropped their three previous games against playoff squads like the Spurs, Magic, and Lakers.
The Hawks managed the huge rally against the Bulls without Josh Smith, who suffered a knee injury in Monday's loss at Denver. Smith is also listed as 'doubtful,' as Atlanta looks to break the 100-point barrier for the first time since February 4 against the Clippers, a 12-game span. The Hawks are 8-1 to the 'under' the last nine games, but Larry Drew's team has failed to cover each of their previous three times as a home favorite.
Oklahoma City has won each of the last three meetings, including a 103-94 victory at the Ford Center on December 31 as five-point favorites. Durant burned the Hawks for 33 points, while the Thunder shot 48% from the field. That game finished 'over' the total of 195, but Oklahoma City is currently riding a 6-2 'under' run.
Heat at Spurs
San Antonio returns to the AT&T Center for four games starting tonight against a dejected Miami team. The Spurs are 1-1 SU/ATS without Tony Parker, as the point guard is out two to four weeks with a calf injury. The Heat looks to regroup following a devastating loss to the Magic last night, after giving away a double-digit lead for the second straight game.
Miami is 14-16 against above .500 teams this season, while going 29-2 against clubs owning records worse than .500. Breaking it down even further, the Heat is 1-7 SU/ATS versus the top six teams in the league (Miami is in that class). With the loss to the Magic, Miami is riding a four-game ATS skid, while going 1-3 ATS the last four games on the highway.
The Spurs own the league's best home record with a 28-2 mark at the AT&T Center, even though San Antonio has failed to cash each of its last three home games. Prior to a cover at Cleveland on Wednesday, the Spurs were on an 0-5 ATS run, the longest stretch without an ATS win all season. The Spurs are in the midst of a 5-1 'over' clip, while Gregg Popovich's club is playing just their fifth home game since January 22.
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NBA Previews
by Dan Bebe
Toronto Raptors @ New Jersey Nets (-2.5) with a total of 200.5
These teams have both been stinking it up, though I suppose you could argue that Toronto is, at least, coming off a win, whatever that's worth. The big issue with this game is that it's taking place across the pond, as is the rematch tomorrow. Without getting into a ton of detail, I'd rather just play this home-and-home like we've done with so many others. Watch the first game, react and make some money in the second one. Somewhat irrelevant, considering my plan, but Toronto won the only game in this series so far this year, and if I absolutely had to try to make a prediction on this game, I'd expect Jersey to barely cover this one in a game that stays UNDER the total.
Chicago Bulls @ Orlando Magic (-2.5) with a total of 187.5
Chicago still hasn't quite proven to me that they can do it on the road, though I would assume the quick note on this game is that the Magic are playing a back-to-back off a very rough game with the Heat last night, on TNT. I'm not that concerned with that, barring a ridiculous conclusion. My feelings on this game are simply that until Chicago shows me that they can beat the best teams away from home, they're not a team I can back in games like this. Chicago is 1-1 against Orlando, both games at home, so this is the real test of the season series, thus far, and if the Magic continue to play strong basketball through the game in Miami (results pending), I think they could potentially do it again. Small lean to ORLANDO and the OVER.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Philadelphia 76ers (-9.5) with a total of 205
As noted, we're keeping things very straightforward on Fridays, since this is sort of the day of the week where we can apply strategies from the week into a card more quickly. Minnesota recently hosted the Sixers and lost by 20, at home. Embarrassing. The Wolves are coming off a win in Detroit and the Sixers recently suffered a home loss. There aren't many scheduling or look-ahead-type angles to explore, so this one comes down to oddsmakers giving us 9.5, a dubious number. I think Minnesota continues to play hard and struggles to a tough loss, keeping it close enough for a WOLVES cover in a game that sneaks up and OVER the total.
Golden State Warriors @ Boston Celtics (-10.5) with a total of 201.5
This is another potential revenge game, though it's pretty clear the Warriors don't have the discipline to truly compete with the Celtics when Boston is focused. Boston is banged up, but they're still Boston. Still, the Celts beat the Warriors by 22, outshooting Golden State 56% to 39%. I'm tempted to say that both of those numbers regress a tad, but I'm not certain the Warriors shoot all that much better. Still, I can't argue with the motivational edge that getting spanked at home brings out. I do, however, think the total has been more than adequately adjusted for the last game going over. Lean to the WARRIORS and the UNDER.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks (-12) with a total of 218.5
This game, to me, is a lot like the Hornets recent trip to Minnesota. The bad team, of the two, had won both meetings this season, and now we're left trying to determine if that bad team is just feeling confident, or if the good team is going to take the game a little more personally. New Orleans seemed to take the losses to Minnesota hard - will New York do the same? If so, New York could conceivably win this game by 25 points. If not, Cleveland might just give them another run for their money. I'm inclined to think there's just a hair more of a chance that the Knicks bring a fire, but you have to give Cleveland credit for at least trying. If New York plays the defense here that they did against New Orleans, Miami, etc., the KNICKS should be able to just barely get it done on the cover, and they'll accomplish it by keeping the Cavs UNDER their expected total.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Atlanta Hawks with a total of N/A
I don't much like this game, since Atlanta is playing better since the trade deadline, and the Thunder snapped out of their mini-funk with an easy win over the Pacers. Playing this side is like trying to predict which team is going to slip first, and that's no fun. That's just guesswork. The one very small factor at play is that Atlanta is in the midst of a very tough homestand with the Knicks coming in next, then the Lakers before a road game in Chicago. If the Hawks were to lose focus for any of the games, you'd think maybe this one, though they're on revenge from a game much earlier this year. This is a damn tough side to call, though both teams have stepped up defense in the last game or two. Miniscule, teeny side lean to the THUNDER, if we're catching a few points, and smallish lean to the UNDER.
New Orleans Hornets @ Memphis Grizzlies with a total of N/A
New Orleans is a total mess right now, and it's not clear if it's Chris Paul's ankle to blame, or just the team coming back to Earth after a good first half of the year. Either way, the Hornets have lost 3 straight and 10 of 14 dating back to the start of February. I don't think I can back them until they show signs of pulling out of this nosedive. These teams have met just once this year, which means a few more meetings are coming up, and also means this one is going to be the toughest of them to handicap. The Grizzlies lost by a point on the road in January, so will they come back with a better than average effort, or will we see a slight letdown off the home-and-home Memphis played against the Spurs? I can't help but feel like the Grizz are confident right now, and if this number is in the small/medium range, I'd look to MEMPHIS to keep the ball rolling, and to do so with a methodical UNDER, defensive attack.
Indiana Pacers @ Dallas Mavericks (-8.5) with a total of 208.5
The Pacers actually beat the Mavs in their only meeting this year, but the Mavs were short a superstar at the time, if I'm not mistaken, so we can almost throw that game out. The angle I'm most interested in, in terms of betting the current Pacers road trip, is scheduling. Indiana played a home game against the Warriors, won it, got thwacked in Oklahoma City the next night, had a day off, and now play back-to-back contests in Dallas and Houston. I'd almost prefer to hop aboard the fade train when Indy is playing its 4th in 5 nights tomorrow, and let them tire themselves out with a better effort tonight. We're in no position to fade Dallas, with as well as they're playing, but I still think INDIANA just barely sneaks inside the spread in a game that stays UNDER.
Phoenix Suns (-2.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks with a total of 193.5
I hate to say it (mostly because I know a lot of my favorite readers are fans of the team), but Milwaukee might just be cooked. This poor team cannot get healthy. There's a team like that every year where the moment one key cog comes back, another goes down. Now it's Bogut (again), this time with an oblique issue that saps the Bucks of their only true interior player. He's been battling a defunct elbow for some time, Drew Gooden is seemingly dead, Ersan Ilyasova is out, Delfino just finally returned, the list goes on and on. Oh well. Phoenix is the square beyond square side in this game, but I think Milwaukee is actually worse than people even think. I realize the Bucks are on revenge from an ugly loss in Phoenix, but they've got nothing left. Very small lean to the SUNS and the UNDER.
Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs (-1.5) with a total of 196.5
Everyone knows the Heat's struggles with the best teams in the NBA, and while I'd love to go against Miami, the Spurs haven't looked that sharp over the last couple weeks - namely, since the Break. Miami is in a tough travel spot off a home game against Orlando, and LeBron and Wade are coming off tremendous offensive showings, and while many will insist that they will balance that out with some poor performances, I tend to think momentum carries over pretty well in back-to-back games. The other issue, and this is for both teams, is that Miami comes back home to host Chicago after this game, and the Spurs host the Lakers next. These teams meet in Miami in 10 days, too. Small lean to the SPURS, though I'd prefer to wait, and I'd consider the OVER.
Charlotte Bobcats @ Los Angeles Lakers (-12.5) with a total of 191.5
The Lakers have been steamrolling since the Break, winning and covering 5 straight games, but if ever there was a confluence of angles that make me think they might skip a beat, this game has 'em. First, the Bobcats are eerily tough for the Lakers. It doesn't make a ton of sense, but Charlotte just gets up for LA, and the Lakers bog down against Charlotte. On top of that, the Lakers play in San Antonio on Sunday, so this could potentially be a look-ahead spot. And finally, Charlotte lost by FORTY in Denver in their last game, so you have to think they'll be thinking about trying to shake that stink. The Bobcats are on a tough road trip, so there are no guarantees they wake up at all, but I think there's a better chance they keep this one tight than lose by 30. Lean to BOBCATS and the UNDER.