Game of the day: Nuggets at Jazz
By Lee Kostroski
The skinny
Utah stole Denver’s home-court advantage with a road victory in Game 2. With the series tied at one game apiece, the Nuggets go on the road, where they were a mediocre 19-22 (15-21-5 ATS) this season. The Jazz, meanwhile, were 32-9 at home this season (26-13-2 ATS).
Head to Head
In the final regular season meeting, the Jazz avoided a season-sweep by the Nuggets with a 116-106 victory. Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups both did not play due to injuries.
Denver is 4-2 against the Jazz this season (including playoffs). Each game has been relatively close, with the Nuggets outscoring Utah by an average of 4.4 points.
Denver is 3-0-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last four meetings in Utah and 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10 matchups. The favorite is 24-11-3 ATS the last 38 times these two teams have played each other.
Put up or shut Up
Denver is 2-6 in its last eight road games, with some bad losses to Houston and New York mixed in. The Nuggets are allowing 109 points per game in their last eight road dates while scoring just 101.5.
They’ll need to shore up their defensive deficiencies on Friday if they want to contain Utah’s offense.
In the first half of Game 2, the short-handed Jazz had their way on the offensive end, shooting 67.7 percent. The Jazz shot 52.9 percent, led by 33 points from point guard Deron Williams.
After arguably his best professional game, a 42-point effort in Game 1, Carmelo Anthony could not find his offensive rhythm. He finished 9-for-25 but scored 32 points, thanks for 14-of-15 shooting from the foul line. He fouled out late in the game after committing four offensive fouls earlier in the contest.
The Nuggets have to cut back on their fouls. They’ve sent Utah to the line 79 times in the first two games, giving the Jazz 60 points at the charity stripe.
"We want to play physical, we just have to play smart," acting Nuggets coach Adrian Dantley said. "First of all, we're fouling too much. We're putting them on the free-throw line. We can't do that.
"You've got to be able to keep your head. They're going to hold you, grab you. You can't get into a battle with them if that's not your game."
The Nuggets can’t complain about fouls being called. They’ve totaled 69 free throws attempts themselves, making 56 of those attempts.
"I'm pretty sure come Friday, it's going to be a pretty physical game." Anthony grinned as he said it after Tuesday's practice.
Sweet music
Utah has won 10 of last 11 home games, winning by an average margin of 13.5 PPG (113.5 to 100).
The Jazz came through with an inspirational Game 2 victory that included 91 attempted free throws and 67 fouls called on the two teams.
Andrei Kirilenko and Mehmet Okur are both out for Game 3. Okur will miss the rest of the season while Kirilenko is hopeful to return if the Jazz advance past Round 1. Utah's lineup isn't nearly as experienced without those two in the lineup.
Three starters, C.J. Miles, Wesley Mathews and Kyrylo Fesenko had a combined 87 minutes of playoff experience before this series.
"I still believe we can win," Deron Williams said. "I said it [Sunday]. We still have a great team, we have guys that are on this team for a reason. They might not have got the playing time early, but they can play this game.
"We definitely wish we could have A.K. and Memo out here, but the reality is we don't and we can't just give up on the season just because we don't have those guys out here. We can still fight and still compete."
They don’t seem to miss a beat without their injured starters. Kirilenko and Okur averaged a combined 25.4 points in the regular season, yet the Jazz have scored 113 and 111 points in the first two games of the series while shooting 53.8 percent (77 of 143).
"It is a different series," Williams said, "but they've won there before. Just because we're at home, we're not going to get complacent. We've got to go out there and play our game."
Key Statistical Information – Away/Home Comparisons
Points Per Game
Denver: -0.8 PPG
Utah: +9.5 PPG
Field Goal Percentage
Denver: -0.2
Utah: +6.7
Rebounding
Denver: -2.0
Utah: +2.5
Trends
Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven playoff games as an underdog and 21-8-1 ATS in its last 30 games playing on three or more days' rest.
Utah is 23-9-2 ATS in its last 34 home games and 34-15-2 ATS in its last 51 games as a favorite.
Inside the Paint - Friday
By Chris David
Only three underdogs have captured straight up road wins in this year’s playoffs so far and two of them are slated for Friday, when Dallas visits San Antonio and Utah hosts Denver. Those Western Conference quarterfinals are all square at 1-1 after two games, which was the status of three best-of-seven series in the West.
The East has been the complete opposite of the West in the postseason so far and to no real surprise, considering conference was top-heavy all season long. However, the one playoff series that was deemed as a possible upset by the experts has been anything but. The matchup we’re talking about is the first-round battle between Boston and Miami. The Celtics have opened up a commanding 2-0 lead and if the Heat continues to play like they have, the broom could be broken out in South Beach this weekend.
Let’s look at each battle closer.
Wrong Favorite?
The Heat are coming off an embarrassing 29-point (77-106) loss in Game 2 at Boston, who was playing without Kevin Garnett (suspension), yet the oddsmakers have still made Miami a short favorite for Game 3 on Friday. From what’s transpired in the first two games, the third installment in this series has all the makings of a big old bear trap for Celtic backers.
If Miami was going to advance, most expected All-Star Dwyane Wade (27.5 PPG, 11 assists) to carry the team as he’s done on a regular basis. What’s surprising is that nobody expected the Heat’s supporting cast to play so bad in the first two losses. Center Jermaine O’Neal has gone a miserable 4-of-24 (16.6%) in the series while forward Michael Beasley (19 points) hasn’t come close to his expectations and the second overall pick in the 2008 NBA draft.
Should we expect a different effort at home from Miami? Or perhaps we should come to realize that the Heat’s 18-4 hot streak to the close the season is blown out of proportion. During that span since early March, only five of those wins came against playoffs teams and three were against the Bobcats, Bucks and Bulls (2), who are all facing early postseason holes as well.
Those following and backing Boston all season know that Doc Rivers and company have played better on the road (26-15 SU, 20-20 ATS) than at TD Garden. Still, the Celtics are catching points and they’ve gone 8-8 ATS in the role (road ‘dogs) this season.
Miami has gone 24-17 SU and 18-22 ATS at home this season. As favorites in South Beach, the Heat has posted a 14-18 ATS record. And unless you forgot, they’re laying points in Game 3. Miami did go 2-1 both SU and ATS at home in its first round battle against Atlanta in last year’s playoffs, which included a Game 3 blowout (107-78) at the Triple-A. However, they were swept by the Bulls three years ago in the postseason. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 over this span.
Sometimes in gambling, the line says everything and that could be the case here. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Miami pull a game closer, but it’s certainly hard to bet against Boston, who has won seven straight and 12 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings.
ESPN offers national coverage at 8:05 p.m. EDT.
Texas Tussle
The Spurs snapped a four-game losing streak to the Mavericks on Tuesday by capturing a 102-88 road win in Game 2 of their opening round series. San Antonio’s victory evened up the series and it now looks to take series lead on Friday. Tim Duncan led the charge with 25 points and 17 boards, as the Spurs led from the start and never looked back as plus-160 underdogs (Bet $100 to win $160) on the money-line.
Now with the series knotted at 1-1, San Antonio has become a short favorite (-120) in the best-of-seven series. The Spurs have posted a 29-12 SU and 24-17 ATS record at home this year, but that could be trumped with a 27-14 SU and 26-15 ATS mark by the Mavericks.
Even though Greg Popovich and company won Tuesday, Dallas still owns a 4-2 advantage over San Antonio this year. And it’s hard to ignore the results from last year’s playoff battle between the two, when the Mavs knocked out the Spurs in five games, which was also tied 1-1 after the first two games. In that series, Dallas captured two of its four victories at San Antonio.
San Antonio has been listed as a three-point favorite for tonight’s tilt and gamblers should be aware that the point-spread hasn’t mattered in the previous 16 encounters between the pair. If you like the Spurs, then lay the points and if you fancy the Mavs, then grab the money-line (+140).
Total players have watched the ‘under’ go 5-1 in the six meetings this season, but the numbers have been tight in the playoffs. Depending where you got the line in Game 1 (194) some folks could’ve gotten a push, win or loss in the Mavs’ 100-94 victory. In Tuesday’s affair, the combined 190 points slipped ‘under’ the 194 ½ point closing number and that was stuffed with a 36-point fourth quarter. The ‘over/under’ for Game 3 is hovering at 193 ½ points.
Tip-off for tonight’s tilt is set at 9:30 p.m. EDT, with ESPN covering the action.
Salt Lake Shootout
Utah evened up its first round series with Denver on Monday with a 114-11 road victory in Game 2 as a six-point underdog. The Jazz received a monster effort from point guard Deron Williams (33 points, 14 assists) plus the bench production from Paul Millsap (18 points) and Kyle Korver (13 points) was huge. The Nuggets came out flat in the first half (51 points) and the team could never muster up enough consistent shooting from 3-point land (4-of-18).
The series heads back to Salt Lake City, where Utah has produced a sizzling 32-9 SU and 27-13 ATS mark during the regular season. Oddsmakers have listed the Jazz as two-point home favorites and the number makes sense, when you look at Denver’s inconsistent road ledger (19-22 SU, 15-22 ATS) this season.
Despite the win, Denver has still won four of the six battles this season, which includes a 105-95 victory at Energy Solutions Arena on Jan. 2 this year. What’s even more impressive about that win is the Nuggets played without the duties of Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups.
While predicting a side in this contest could be argued both ways, the total has been one-sided in the six encounters this season. The ‘over’ has gone 5-1, plus the one ‘under’ ticket happened in the Nuggets’ aforementioned win above. And that total (201.5) missed by a couple points.
The total for Game 1 was listed at 208 and that number was adjusted to 213 for the second installment. For this battle, it’s jumped up four more points to 217. Did the books tweak this too much? The easiest way to put up points in basketball is from the free throw line, and that factored huge in Game 2. The Jazz (36/47) and Nuggets (37/44) went to the stripe 91 times and they converted an eye opening 73.
Since the two teams haven’t played since Monday, the rest vs. rust factor comes to play. It should be noted that both Denver (8-0 SU, 7-0 ATS) and Utah (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) have been incredible on three days of rest or more this year. The Nuggets have averaged 117 PPG during this span, which has helped the ‘over’ go 6-2.
ESPN 2 will provide coverage of tonight’s game at 10:35 p.m. EDT.
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EASTERN CONFERENCE
Miami (0-2 SU and ATS) at Boston (2-0 SU and ATS)
The Heat return home to American Airlines Arena down 2-0 and in a must-win situation when they face the Celtics in Game 3 of this best-of-7 series.
Miami entered Game 2 with a built-in advantage and a shot at stealing home court, with the Celts’ Kevin Garnett sitting out due to a one-game suspension incurred in Boston’s 85-76 Game 1 victory. But the Heat went on an eight-minute scoring drought in the second quarter, getting outscored 21-0 in that span on the way to getting hammered 106-77 as a one-point road underdog. Miami shot just 38.2 percent (29 of 76), even after hitting 9 of 18 from 3-point range.
Dwyane Wade actually fared well for the Heat, scoring 29 points on 11-for-18 shooting, but none of his teammates mustered more than 13 points.
Boston outscored Miami over the middle two quarters 62-36 to win and cover again, after entering the playoffs on a 3-7 SU and ATS purge. Ray Allen led the way with 25 points, going a torrid 7 of 9 from long distance, and Glen Davis made up for Garnett’s absence with 23 points and eight rebounds. The C’s also killed Miami on the boards, 50-33.
Miami went 24-17 SU (18-22-1 ATS) at home in the regular season, averaging 96.8 ppg on 45.6 percent shooting, while allowing 93.3 ppg on 44.3 percent shooting. Boston, meanwhile, was a sturdy 26-15 on the highway (21-19-1 ATS), averaging 98.1 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting and giving up 94.2 ppg on 44.1 percent shooting.
Boston has owned this rivalry lately, winning seven in a row (5-2 ATS) and 13 of the last 14 (10-4 ATS), and the Celts are 7-1 ATS on their last eight trips to South Beach. The favorite has covered in 10 of the last 12 meetings, and the road team is 9-5 ATS in the last 14 contests. The SU winner has covered the number in 10 of the last 12 clashes. Also, the SU winner is on a 9-0 ATS roll in Miami’s last nine postseason affairs and is 12-3-1 ATS in Boston’s last 16 playoff outings.
The Heat are on a handful of ATS slides, including 2-5 overall, 3-9-1 ATS in opening-round playoff games (1-5 last six), 1-5-1 at home, 2-5 as a postseason chalk and 11-24 at home against teams with a winning road record. The only upside: a 9-1 ATS mark in their last 10 Friday starts.
The Celts are a mixed bag at the betting window, carrying positive ATS streaks of 4-0 in first-round games, 4-1 against winning teams, 8-2-1 as a pup and 53-26-2 as a road underdog, along with negative ATS runs of 1-6 after a SU win and 1-5 after a spread cover.
Miami is on “over” strings of 5-2 overall, 5-1 after a SU loss, 9-4 at home, 4-1 giving points and 6-2 against winning teams, but the under for the Heat is on stretches of 4-0 as a playoff chalk, 9-1 after a two-day break and 5-2 in first-round games. Boston holds “over” streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-1 in first-round playoff games, 4-1 as a ‘dog and 21-10-1 going on two days’ rest, though the Celts also own “under” rolls of 11-4 after a SU win and 9-4 after a spread-cover.
Finally, the total has cleared the posted price in six of the last eight meetings between these rivals, with Game 2 barely getting past the 182.5 total, after Game 1 went below the 184-point price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Antonio (1-1 SU and ATS) at Dallas (1-1 SU and ATS)
The second-seeded Mavericks aim to bounce back from a Game 2 beatdown when they make the short in-state trip to the AT&T Center to face the Spurs.
San Antonio outscored Dallas in three of four quarters Wednesday, rolling to a 102-88 victory as a three-point road pup, following a 100-94 loss getting 4½ points in the series opener. The Spurs outshot the Mavs by almost 12 percent, hitting 48.2 percent from the floor (40 of 83) and allowing just 36.5 percent shooting (31 of 85). Tim Duncan had a double-double of 25 points and 17 boards, and Manu Ginobili added 23 points.
Beyond its shooting, Dallas’ major shortfall in Game 2 was on the glass, collecting 42 rebounds while allowing the Spurs to grab 51. Not even 95 percent free-throw shooting (19 of 20) could save the Mavs, who were paced by Jason Terry (27 points) and Dirk Nowitzki (24 points, 10 rebounds).
San Antonio was 29-12 SU (24-16-1 ATS) in regular-season action at home, outscoring visitors by more than eight ppg (105.5-97.1) and outshooting them 49.2 percent to 46.1 percent. Dallas went 27-14 SU and a solid 26-15 ATS on the highway, far better than its dismal 11-29-1 home ATS mark in the regular season, with the Mavs averaging 102.2 ppg on 46.8 percent shooting and yielding 99.0 ppg on 45.2 percent shooting.
These instate rivals also met in the first round last year, with Dallas rolling to a 4-1 series victory while also going 4-1 ATS. The Mavs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes, including 4-2 SU and ATS this year while winning and cashing in four of the last five meetings, including the regular-season finale at home. The host is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 matchups, but Dallas is 12-4 ATS on its last 16 trips to San Anton. Also, the SU winner is on a 15-1 ATS tear.
The Spurs are on ATS upswings of 19-8 overall, 10-1 after a road trip of seven or more days, 8-2 at home, 7-2 after a day off and 19-6-2 as a playoff chalk, though they are 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine first-round games (1-4 last five, all against Dallas).
The Mavericks are 9-3 SU and ATS in their last 12 starts overall, including a current 6-1 SU and ATS surge, and they are on further pointspread upticks of 5-0 on the highway, 6-1 after a day off, 5-1 as a road pup, 6-2 in first-round playoff games and 5-2-1 inside the Southwest Division. However, they are 1-4 ATS in their last five starts as a playoff ‘dog.
San Antonio is on “under” upticks of 3-1-1 overall, 4-1-1 against winning teams and 15-7 after a spread-cover, but the over for the Spurs is on surges of 5-0 at home, 4-0 as a home chalk and 4-0 on Friday. Dallas is on under rolls of 9-4-1 overall, 3-0-1 in the Southwest Division and 4-1 as an underdog.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 4-1-1 in this year’s six meetings (1-1 in this playoff series), but the over is 4-1 in the last five clashes in San Antonio, and in last year’s playoff series, the total cleared the posted price in four of the five contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN ANTONIO
Denver (1-1 SU and ATS) at Utah (1-1 SU and ATS)
After grabbing Game 2 in Denver, the Jazz will look to take a 2-1 advantage when they meet the Nuggets inside EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City for Game 3 of this best-of-7 Western Conference opening round series.
Utah fell 126-113 in Game 1 on Saturday, failing as a 5 ½-point underdog, but the Jazz got a huge 33-point, 14-assist game from Deron Williams in a 114-11 Game 2 victory in Denver on Monday, pulling off the upset as six-point favorites. They got 20 points from Carlos Boozer, 18 from Paul Milsap and 17 from C.J. Miles as the Jazz shot 52.9 percent from the floor.
Denver was just 19-22 (15-21-5 ATS) on the road this season and went just 2-6 (1-6-1 ATS) in its final eight on the highway. Utah was 32-9 (26-13-2 ATS) at home and closed by winning 10 of its last 11 in Salt Lake City (8-3 ATS).
The Jazz were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs a season ago by the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). They’re in the postseason for the fourth consecutive year, but have lost four of their last six first-round series.
The Lakers also took out the Nuggets on their way to the NBA title, topping Denver in six games (3-3 ATS) in the Western Conference Finals. Prior to meeting Los Angeles, the Nuggets had won eight of 10 playoff contests in the first two rounds – eliminating New Orleans and Dallas – while going 10-0 ATS. This is Denver’s sixth consecutive playoff appearance after a nine-year drought from 1995-2003.
The Nuggets have won four of six (3-1-2 ATS) in the season series and split in Utah, including a 105-95 win in January as 7 ½-point pups and then falling 116-106 in February, pushing as 10-point underdogs. The Nuggets have won six of the last nine clashes while going 7-1-2 ATS in the last 10. Also, the home team is 10-2 (6-4-2 ATS) in the last 12 matchups between these two, and the chalk is 24-11-3 in the last 38.
Denver is on ATS skids of 1-6-1 on the road, 1-4-2 as an underdog, 1-4 on Friday and 5-12-1 overall, but it is on positive ATS streaks of 6-1 as a playoff underdog, 21-8-1 after three or more days off and 4-0-1 after a non-cover. The Jazz are just 1-5 ATS in their last six Friday games and 1-4 ATS in their last five after a spread-cover, but they are on a plethora of ATS streaks, including 23-9-2 at home, 32-15-3 overall, 8-3 as a home favorite, 21-7-1 as a chalk of up to 4 ½ points and 14-6 after three or more days off.
The Nuggets have topped the total in four straight overall, six of eight against Northwest Division teams and four of five after three or more days off, but they are on “under” streaks of 4-1 on the road, 37-17 as underdogs, and 21-6 as playoff ‘dogs. Utah has gone “over” the total in 20 of 26 against Northwest Division teams and four straight against winning teams, but it is on “under” runs of 5-0-1 after a straight-up win, 8-3 on Friday and 5-2-1 as a favorite.
In this rivalry, the “over” is 4-0 in the last four meetings, but the “under” has cashed in four of the last five in Utah.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and UNDER
NBA Combo RoundUp For 4/23
By Dan Bebe
Celtics @ Heat - Miami by 4 with a total of 182. This is a pretty reasonable line, that's the first thing that strikes me. The Heat were slight dogs on the road, and now, down 0-2, they're small favorites at home. And honestly, this is the game where we get Miami's best effort, there's almost zero doubt about that. The Heat are up against it, now, needing to win this home game, or the Celtics can pretty much walk through game four. If Miami is going to have any shot to turn this series around, they need to do it at home. And, coming off getting absolutely destroyed in Boston, who played that game without Kevin Garnett, a line this low is going to draw plenty of Boston money, which should create some additional value on the Miami side. Of course, Boston has owned the Heat this year, and as we noted in some of the other write-ups, everything Miami does pretty well, Boston does better. They're a more consistent shooting team, they play defense just about the same, and Boston has been through the Playoffs more - they're "battle tested" is the expression folks like to use. So, we have the situationals battling the match-up angles, and we have to try to decide which one weighs more. Based on historical trends, and the strength of the line, I'd have to think Miami gets it done. As far as the total goes, that last game ended within a bucket of the mark again, so why change it? I'd leave this number alone.
Mavericks @ Spurs - San Antonio by 3.5 with a total of 193.5. This series is tied at 1 game apiece after a dominant road showing by the Spurs in game two, where they just made their shots and the Mavs couldn't quite keep up. I happen to think this line is pretty fair, though I also think the Mavs come back and win at least 1 of the 2 games in San Antonio. It took some tremendous efforts from Tim Duncan and Richard Jefferson to get the Spurs to where they needed to be in game two, but can they continue? Duncan probably can, but Jefferson is about as up-and-mostly-down as any player in the NBA this season. My issue is that I'm not 100% positive which game in San Antonio we got the monster Dallas shooting night, because it's coming, that's for darn sure. This line is a little tough to decipher, which means that either the oddsmakers don't really know what to expect, or they do, and they're trying to nail the line exactly. Something tells me this game will be closer, and someone will win it late, which makes me think the Over might have some legs, but as far as the side is concerned, I'd give it a little more time, mull it over. Gun to my head right at this very moment, tiny lean to Dallas.
Nuggets @ Jazz - Utah by 2 with a total of 216. This line is a bit of a curveball, as well, seeing as how Utah dominated the Nuggets in game two, and Denver just looked disinterested despite the importance of the game. So, what's the deal, here? I would think that folks are going to immediately expect Denver to bounce back, but I don't know that Denver has that many more "tricks" they can pull out of their bag. Both teams just shot an absolute ton of free throws, and you know the Jazz were perfectly happy with a more physical game, not letting Denver get out in the open court quite as much. However, the Jazz were also helped by Denver going just 4-for-18 from long range, and that can be an absolute killer for a team like the Nuggets that needs to be able to spread the floor. I think this game is something of a coin flip, and the line confirms that to some degree. The Nuggets are obviously a much better team at home, but I think we know they realize, now, the importance of getting one in Utah and taking home court back. Will it be in game three or game four? I'd rather see how this one goes and react in the next one, on the side. On the total, this number just keeps rising off each ultra-high scoring game in Denver, but something tells me the teams don't combine to shoot 91 free throws, and make 73. The total should squeeze Under now that oddsmakers have adjusted twice.