Game of the day: Lakers at Thunder
By LEE KOSTROSKI
Not your typical series
Oklahoma City won Games 3 and 4 at home to knot the series up at two games apiece. The Lakers returned to Los Angeles on Tuesday and rocked the Thunder by 24 points to put them within a game of closing out the series. Oklahoma City is 29-14 at home this season (24-19 ATS) while Los Angeles is 23-20 on the road (18-24-1 ATS).
Head to head
The Thunder prevented a regular-season sweep by winning the final meeting 91-75 on March 26. That win seemed to give them a sense of confidence against Los Angeles. OKC now needs a win to force a Game 7 on Sunday.
In Tuesday’s Game 5, Oklahoma City recorded just seven fast break points after recording 72 in the first four games. The Thunder made it to the line 24 times (making 18) in Game 5 after 80 free throw attempts in Game 3 and 4 alone.
The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in Oklahoma City.
We’ve seen home-court advantage play a huge role in this series. Will OKC continue its dominance at home or will Los Angeles steal one and close out the series on the road?
Win or go home
The Lakers made some key adjustments in Game 5 by swapping Kobe Bryant off of Kevin Durant and putting him on Russell Westbrook. It threw off Westbrook and drained less of Bryant’s energy on defense.
Westbrook averaged 21.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists while making more than 55 percent of his shots in the first four games. But in Game 5 Bryant harassed Westbrook into a 4-for-13 shooting while forcing eight turnovers.
"That's Kobe," Westbrook said. "That's who he is. That's why he's probably the best player in the league."
NBA coach of the year Scott Brooks adjustments have been masterful in this series. He’s done a good job of coming up with schemes to stop Kobe, holding him to 21.8 PPG this series (-5.2 PPG off regular season average). They’ve also held the Lakers to just 95.6 PPG, keeping them under 100 points in four of five games of this series.
The Thunder have done a great job against Bryant at home, holding him to 15 of 39 shooting (38 percent) and 36 points.
Sometimes wins can’t be assessed with stats. In all the games this series, the home crowd has certainly made a bigger difference than stats can analyze. The electricity at Ford Center overwhelmed the Lakers in Games 3 and 4. And the buzz around Staples Center in Game 5 seemed to lift the Lakers to a blowout victory.
L.A. story
Ask Los Angeles coach Phil Jackson what the key to winning Game 5 against the Thunder and he’ll give you a rather simple answer.
"It was just raw energy. That's all there it was to it."
The Lakers stormed out to a big lead by going into the paint early and often. Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum combined for 46 points and 22 rebounds.
This isn't a make-or-break game for the Lakers. Should they need it, the seventh and deciding game would take place Sunday at Staples Center. But history appears to be on the Lakers' side; the Purple and Gold are 17-0 after winning Game 5 at home.
Still, the Lakers would surely like to end this series sooner rather than later.
"We don't want to try to stretch this out," Lakers forward Pau Gasol said, "and give them another chance."
The extra rest between games seemed to help Jackson's boys quite a bit. The Lakers looked old and slow in Game 4 but with a couple of days off, they bounced back to get a blowout victory in Game 5. Once again, they get a couple of days off to prepare for Game 6.
"I think it helped all of us, not just from a physical standpoint, but more so even just from a strategic standpoint of really gaining an understanding of the things that happened the first three or four games and what we could do going into the fifth game that could work well for us as a group," Derek Fisher said.
Said Bryant: "We know they're going to come back strong, make their own adjustments and come back with their best game in front of their fans, so we've got to improve even more."
Key statistical information - Away/home comparisons
Points per Game
Los Angeles: +0.3 PPG
Oklahoma City: +5.9 PPG
Field Goal Percentage
Los Angeles: +0.5%
Oklahoma City: +3.0%
Rebounding
Los Angeles: +1.1 RPG
Oklahoma City: +3.7 RPG
Trends
Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a SU win.
Oklahoma City is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games playing on two days' rest.
Friday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
**Hawks at Bucks**
Milwaukee (49-38 straight up, 55-30-2 against the spread) has won three consecutive games to take a 3-2 series lead and move within one game of advancing to the second round for the first time since 2001, when ‘Big Dog’ Robinson, Sam Cassell and Ray Allen led the Bucks to the Eastern Conference finals before losing to Philadelphia. The Bucks captured a 91-87 come-from-behind win at Atlanta in Wednesday’s Game 5 at Philips Arena. They won outright as nine-point road underdogs.
Atlanta (55-32 SU, 50-35-2 ATS) appears to be a team in turmoil right now. With Scott Skiles clearly outcoaching Mike Woodson with a team down a pair of starters, speculation about Woodson’s future with the franchise is running rampant through the city of Atlanta. Joe Johnson, who will be an unrestricted free agent and turned down a four-year $60 million extension before the season, seems to have one foot out the door. His post-game comments after a Game 4 loss at Milwaukee seemed to be directed at Josh Smith, who is signed through 2012-2013. After Game 5, Johnson called the loss “embarrassing.”
Rookie guard Brandon Jennings continued to play like a seasoned veteran in Game 5, scoring a team-high 25 points. Luke Ridnour provided a huge lift off the bench, hitting 5-of-7 shots from the floor on his way to a 15-point effort in just 17 minutes of playing time. The Oregon product also had four steals. Veteran power forward Kurt Thomas has been doing the little things the last three games. He took the charge that fouled Joe Johnson out when Atlanta was still clinging to a one-point lead late in the fourth quarter. Carlos Delfino had a monster performance in Game 4 that he couldn’t duplicate back at Philps. However, he more than made up for just a seven-point effort by inserting the dagger with a clutch 3-pointer that gave his squad a four-point lead with just over a minute remaining.
Most books are listing the Hawks as two-point favorites with the total in the 189-190 range. The Bucks are plus-110 on the money line at most spots (risk $100 to win $110).
The Bucks owns a 30-13 SU record and a 26-16-1 ATS mark at home in the Bradley Center this year. They have been home underdogs seven times, compiling a 2-5 SU record and a 4-3 ATS ledger.
Atlanta had missed the playoffs for nine consecutive seasons until making the postseason in 2008. This is the Hawks’ third straight year in the playoffs, but they are an atrocious 1-10 both SU and ATS in 11 road games over that span.
The Hawks have gone 19-24 SU and 23-20 ATS in their 43 road outings.
The ‘over’ is 24-18-1 in Milwaukee’s home games.
The ‘over’ is 50-36-1 overall for the Hawks, 24-18-1 in their road assignments.
Although the ‘under’ easily cashed in Game 5, the ‘over’ is on an 11-2 run in the last 13 head-to-head meetings between these teams.
ESPN will provide television coverage at 7:05 p.m. Eastern.
**Lakers at Thunder**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Oklahoma City (52-35 SU, 51-36 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 195. As of Thursday night, most spots had the Thunder installed as a 1 ½-point ‘chalk’ with the total slightly reduced to 194 ½.
Los Angeles (60-27 SU, 35-49-3 ATS) responded to road losses in Game 3 and 4 by dealing out woodshed treatment back at Staples Arena for Game 5 on Tuesday night. The Lakers jumped on the Thunder early and never let up, cruising to a 111-83 victory as six-point home favorites. The ‘over’ hit thanks to James Harden’s 3-pointer for OKC with eight seconds left that took the total off a push.
Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum stepped up big in the Game 5 win. Gasol had 25 points and 11 rebounds, while Bynum finished with 21 points and 11 boards.
Scott Brooks’ club is 29-14 SU and 24-19 ATS at home. The Thunder won Games 3 and 4 at home by the following scores: 101-96 and 110-89.
The Lakers have gone 23-20 SU and 17-25-1 in their road games this season. They have been road underdogs 13 times, posting a 3-10 SU record and a 4-9 ATS mark.
The ‘over’ is 46-38-3 overall for the Thunder, 21-20-2 in its home games.
The ‘under’ has been a money maker for the Lakers this year, cashing at a 48-38-1 overall clip. They have seen the ‘under’ go 23-20 in their road assignments.
Tip-off is scheduled for 9:35 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
**Nuggets at Jazz**
LVSC opened Utah (56-31 SU, 52-32-3 ATS) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 215 ½. As of Thursday night, most book had the Jazz favored by 4 ½ or five with the total up to 217 ½. Gamblers can take the Nuggets to win outright for a plus-175 payout (risk $100 to win $175).
Denver (55-32 SU, 37-44-6 ATS) had lost three in a row until pulling away from Utah in the final stanza of Wednesday’s Game 5 back at the Pepsi Center. The Nuggets staved off elimination by collecting a 116-102 win as 7 ½-point home favorites. Carmelo Anthony scored 26 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, while J.R. Smith dropped in 17 points off the bench.
Utah has been dynamite at home – as usual – this year, going 34-9 SU and 28-13-2 ATS. The Jazz won Games 3 (105-93) and 4 (117-106) back in Salt Lake City in rather easy fashion.
The win for the Nuggets in Game 5 was bittersweet. For starters, head coach George Karl wasn’t there as he continues to battle cancer. Furthermore, Nene went down with a knee injury that’ll keep him out for at least Game 6 and probably the rest of the year. However, Thursday’s internet reports of a torn ACL proved to be untrue.
Denver is 19-24 SU and 15-23-5 ATS in its road outings. The Nuggets have limped to a 1-8-1 ATS record in their last 10 road games.
The ‘over’ is 47-38-2 overall for the Jazz, 23-19-1 in its home games.
The ‘over’ is 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head encounters between these Western Conference adversaries.
ESPN2 will have the telecast at 10:05 p.m. ET.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
Who was being the bigger drama queen, Kobe not taking his first shot until several minutes into the second quarter of Game 4 at OKC or LeBron with his left-handed free throw to exaggerate his right elbow injury at the end of Game 5 vs. Chicago? I vote Kobe, but not by much.
Atlanta sports radio host Steak Shapiro of 790 The Zone tweeted this Thursday night: Hawks by seven Friday night.
What on earth was going through Dirk Nowitzki’s mind when he inexplicably committed his third foul early in the second quarter of Dallas’s game Thursday at San Antonio? Then just a few minutes later, Nowitzki was just as much of a knucklehead in drawing his fourth foul. Talk about a temporary loss of sanity…
vegasinsider.com
NBA RoundUp For 4/30
By Dan Bebe
Hawks @ Bucks - Atlanta by 1 with a total of 190. Yowza. The Hawks blow a 9-point lead with 4 minutes to go in game five at home, and now have to head on the road down 3-2 in the series. This is not a pretty spot. The overachieving Milwaukee Bucks just keep on building confidence, playing solid team defense, and doing enough to win. They are really a modern marvel, and I still feel like Scott Skiles has done more with less than any other coach in the League. Scott Brooks of the Thunder was a deserving recipient of the Coach of the Year award, but he has the scoring champ. Scott Skiles has a rookie point guard, a slew of injuries, and a mid-season trade for John Salmons, and his team is one win away from toppling the Hawks, the runaway favorite in this series. This game, though, has put me on the see-saw just a bit. On the one hand, you've got the Bucks, brimming with confidence, making all their free throws down the stretch, and coming home with a chance to wrap things up, but on the other hand, the Bucks are now finally the team that has expectations lumped on them. They were the "nothing to lose" team going into the Playoffs, especially with Bogut going down, but now after stealing a game on the road, the pressure is on Milwaukee to get it done in game 6, since the atmosphere of game 7 in Atlanta would be tough to overcome. Then, on Atlanta's side, you've got a dejected Hawks club that blew a 9-point lead very late at home, and caught on camera yelling at one another in a huddle during a timeout. In the same vein, though, the Hawks are now the team playing with desperation. They are likely to become the aggressor, and their awful play on the road in games 3 and 4 are keeping this line at a pretty marketable price. No leans on the side just yet, but let's keep an eye on TNT coverage and see if we can't learn a bit more about the Hawks mindset. On the total, you have to think the Hawks are going to want to try to really milk that size advantage, but this number is probably pretty close to accurate. You have to think Milwaukee will have some jitters early, so maybe a tiny lean to the Under, but not at all strong enough to make a play on it.
Lakers @ Thunder - Oklahoma City by 2 with a total of 195. The initial move on this line was to come down off the opening number, and I'm seeing the Thunder favored by 1 or 1.5 at most books now, and honestly, I'm a tad surprised. Oklahoma got crushed in LA, but we've seen this story before with the Lakers, getting back in the driver's seat, only to go at 75% on the road and assume they can wrap things up at home. And, unfortunately, that's the ONLY question that needs to get answered in this one. The Lakers will likely leave Kobe Bryant on Russell Westbrook, and force the Thunder into a ton of outside shots again, but will the Thunder use the home crowd to inspire them into actually making a few? If you believe the Lakers go at less than full tilt, this is a play on Thunder. If you believe the Lakers are tired of dealing with all the talk, then you play on Lakers. Very, very tough call, in my opinion. Obviously, the early line drop is a small indicator that someone thinks the Lakers play a solid game, but that doesn't necessarily mean they cover. As a lifelong Lakers fan, I still can't get on board with them actually playing like this is do-or-die until it actually IS do-or-die. Tiny lean to Thunder. On the total, we've now seen three straight games go over the total. I like the Under just based on that fact alone, but I also like the Under as I feel the Lakers will continue to play stifling defense, but they won't score 111 again on the road. First team to 90 points win this one.
Nuggets @ Jazz - Utah by 3.5 with a total of 218. The initial move on this line is up, and I can't say I disagree. The Utah Jazz, even in a losing road effort, still played their butts off, and if not for Denver shooting 9-of-17 from long range and parading to the free throw line 42 times, Utah has a fine shot of winning on the road yet again. Instead, Denver played with desperation, made some huge threes, and as I noted on Thursday's podcast, every time it seemed like Denver was one bad play from falling apart, someone saved them. That won't happen on the road, I don't believe. Utah is simply too strong at home. Their role players will step up and make the big shots, Deron Williams will continue to be the best player in the Playoffs so far, and I despite making a play on Denver to live one more day in game five, this is not a time I'd tough the Nuggets, even getting a few points. Something tells me Jerry Sloan makes his impact in this game. He won't tolerate anything less than max effort, especially not in a home game where his Jazz can advance to the next round of the Playoffs. No one on Utah wants to go back to Denver for game 7. It's going to be a hard-fought game, make no mistake, as Denver will once again lay it on the line, but 1 or 2 of those key shots that stemmed Utah runs in Denver won't drop on the road, and the Jazz will have a few chances to pull away. Lean to the Utah side. This total of 218 is exceptionally high. Given that the last game ended right on this number, and the two previous games in Utah ended on 198 and 223, you have to think we're seeing some bigger numbers here because of the potential for Denver to do some rampant fouling down the stretch. Slight lean to the Over.
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlanta (2-3 SU and ATS) at Milwaukee (3-2 SU and ATS)
The sixth-seeded Bucks aim to finish off a first-round upset when they return home to the Bradley Center for Game 6 against the reeling Hawks.
Milwaukee trailed 82-73 with four minutes left in Game 5 on Wednesday night, then went on a stunning 14-0 run and held on for a 91-87 upset as a hefty nine-point underdog. The Bucks, who have won three in a row SU and ATS since dropping Games 1 and 2 in this series, got outshot 43.4 percent-40.5 percent, going 30 of 74 from the floor while Atlanta went 36 of 83. But Milwaukee made 8 of 19 three-pointers (42.1 percent), while the Bucks were just 2 of 11 (18.2 percent) from long range.
Milwaukee also had a big advantage at the charity stripe in Game 5, going 23-for-29, while Atlanta earned just 17 trips to the line and made 13. Brandon Jennings led the Bucks with 25 points, including a 7-for-8 effort at the free-throw line.
Atlanta got 25 points and 11 rebounds from Al Horford, and 22 points from Marvin Williams, but top scorer Joe Johnson mustered just 13 points before fouling out with 2:13 left, in the midst of his team’s late-game collapse, as the Hawks missed seven consecutive shots during the Bucks’ decisive rally.
Milwaukee is 30-13 SU (26-16-1 ATS) in the home jerseys, putting up 100.3 ppg and giving up 96.6, despite getting outshot 45.5 percent to 44.3 percent. The Bucks lost their last two regular-season home starts – including one to Atlanta – but are still 14-2 SU (11-4-1 ATS) in their last 16 at the Bradley Center, scoring SU and ATS wins over the Hawks in Games 3 and 4.
Meanwhile, Atlanta stands at 19-24 SU (23-20 ATS) on the highway this season, averaging 98.7 ppg on 46.2 percent shooting, while allowing just a smidge less at 98.5 ppg (46.7 percent shooting).
Milwaukee’s 3-0 SU and ATS run in this rivalry follows a 4-0 ATS surge by Atlanta. The chalk is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings between these two, and the SU winner is 16-3-1 ATS in the last 20 clashes, including 5-0 in this series. Also, in Atlanta’s last 23 playoff contests, the SU winner is a torrid 22-0-1 ATS, and the SU winner is 11-0-1 ATS in Milwaukee’s last 12 overall.
The Hawks are in ATS funks of 1-5 after a non-cover, 0-5 coming off a SU loss and 1-6 on Friday, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 9-4 against winning teams, 5-2 as a chalk and 5-1 laying less than five points. Meanwhile, the Bucks are on pointspread sprees of 37-14-2 overall, 14-4 as an underdog, 17-5-1 after a day off, 36-13-2 after a spread-cover, 33-16-2 after a SU win and 8-1-1 on Friday, though they are also 3-8-1 ATS in their last dozen as a playoff ‘dog.
Although Wednesday’s game fell short of the 191½-point price, the total has still gone high in 11 of the last 13 meetings overall in this rivalry, with the last six in a row at the Bradley Center hurdling the posted price.
In addition, the Bucks are on a plethora of “over” sprees, including 7-3 overall, 7-0-1 at home, 15-5-2 in first-round playoff games, 10-2 against winning teams and 37-18 as a home pup. Finally, Atlanta is on “over” runs of 6-3 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 4-1 as a road chalk, 10-2 laying less than five points on the road, 7-2 against winning teams and 21-8 following a non-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
L.A. Lakers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) at Oklahoma City (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS)
The defending NBA champion Lakers head to the Ford Center in Oklahoma City looking to finish off the young Thunder in Game 6 of this best-of-7 opening-round series.
Los Angeles took a 3-2 series lead with a 111-87 blowout win on Tuesday, easily cashing as a six-point home chalk. The Lakers raced out to a 14-1 lead to start the game and had a 31-16 advantage after one quarter and never looked back, shooting 53.8 percent from the floor. Pau Gasol led the way with 25 points and Andrew Bynum chipped in 21 and both big men also pulled down 11 rebounds. Defensively, they held Oklahoma City to just 36.9 percent shooting.
The Lakers have won 15 of the last 18 (7-11 ATS) in this rivalry, but the Thunder have won three in a row in Oklahoma City (SU and ATS), including a 110-89 blowout win in Game 4 on Saturday as a one-point favorite.
Los Angeles is 23-20 (17-25-1 ATS) on the road this season, but they’ve dropped six of seven (SU and ATS) overall on the highway. Inside the Ford Center, the Thunder are 29-14 (24-19 ATS), including an ongoing 13-3 run over their final 16 home games (10-6 ATS).
The Thunder haven’t been in the playoffs since 2005 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics and they reached the Western Conference semifinals, losing to the Spurs 4-2 (3-3 ATS), after beating Sacramento 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the opening round. The Lakers’ march to the title last season included a 4-1 (2-3 ATS) series win over the Jazz, 4-3 (SU and ATS) over the Rockets, 4-2 (3-3 ATS) over the Nuggets and then 4-1 (SU and ATS) over the Magic in the NBA Finals. L.A. has reached the postseason five straight times and 15 times in the last 16 years.
Despite Tuesday’s rout, it’s been nothing but negative ATS trends for Los Angeles, including 2-6 overall, 1-6 on the road, 1-10 after a spread-cover, 0-4 as an underdog and 0-5 on the road against teams with winning home records. Conversely, Oklahoma City is on a plethora of positive ATS streaks, including 49-21 after a straight-up loss, 23-9 on Friday, 10-3 after two days off, 4-0 at home, 7-1 at home against teams with winning road records and 21-10 against winning teams.
The Lakers have topped the total in five of seven overall and six of eight on the road, but they are on “under” streaks of 7-0 on Friday, 20-6 after two days off, 11-4 as road ‘dogs and 23-9 against Northwest Division teams. The Thunder have stayed below the number in seven of eight Friday games, but they are on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-0 as a favorite, 7-3-1 as a home chalk and 5-2-1 after a non-cover.
In this series, the “over” has cashed in each of the last three games, including both matchups in Oklahoma City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OKLAHOMA CITY
Denver (2-3 SU and ATS) at Utah (3-2 SU and ATS)
The Jazz return home to EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City for Game 6 of their best-of-7 Western Conference first-round series, trying once again to finish off the fourth-seeded Nuggets.
Denver staved off elimination on Wednesday with a 116-102 home win, cashing as a seven-point chalk and drawing to 3-2 in the series. The Nuggets shot 50.7 percent from the floor and outscored Utah 66-50 in the second half. Carmelo Anthony paced Denver with 26 points and 11 rebounds, but the All –Star got a lot of help, including 21 points from Chauncey Billups, 18 from Kenyon Martin and 17 from J.R. Smith.
The Nuggets lead the season series 5-4 (4-3-2 ATS), but lost Games 3 and 4 in Utah by wide margins, including Sunday’s 117-106 setback in Game 4, failing as a 2½-point underdog. The Jazz are on a 3-1 ATS surge in this series and the chalk is 28-12-3 ATS in the last 43 meetings.
The road has been rough on Denver this season as it fell to 19-24 (15-23-5 ATS) with Sunday’s loss in Utah, and the Nuggets are just 2-8 (1-8-1 ATS) in their last 10 on the highway. On the other hand, the Jazz are a dominating 34-9 in front of the home fans (28-13-2 ATS), winning 12 of their last 13 in Salt Lake City (10-3 ATS).
The Jazz were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs a season ago by the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). They’re in the postseason for the fourth consecutive year, but have lost four of their last six first-round series.
The Lakers also took out the Nuggets on their way to the NBA title, topping Denver in six games (3-3 ATS) in the Western Conference Finals. Prior to meeting Los Angeles, the Nuggets had won eight of 10 playoff contests in the first two rounds – eliminating New Orleans and Dallas – while going 10-0 ATS. This is Denver’s sixth consecutive playoff appearance after a nine-year drought from 1995-2003.
Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 first-round playoff games, but otherwise the team is on a host of negative pointspread slides, including 6-14-1 overall, 1-8-1 on the road, 6-16-4 after a spread-cover, 1-5 on Friday, 1-6-2 as a ‘dog and 1-8-1 after one day off. Utah is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven Friday contests, but it is otherwise on ATS surges of 34-16-3 overall, 25-9-2 at home, 24-9-2 as a home favorite, 20-6 after a straight-up loss and 39-19-2 as a favorite of less than five points.
The Nuggets have topped the total in six of seven overall and six of seven against winning teams, but they are on “under” streaks of 5-2 on the road, 28-18 as an underdog, 21-6 as a playoff pup and 21-8 in first-round playoff games. The Jazz have stayed below the number is nine of 12 Friday affairs, but they are on “over” surges of 4-1 overall, 4-0 after a straight-up loss, 22-6 against Northwest Division teams and 6-1 against teams with winning records.
In this rivalry, the “under” is 5-2 in the last seven clashes in Utah, but the “over” is 6-1 in the last seven meetings overall, with four of five in this playoff series clearing the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER