Game of the day: Suns at Thunder
By Lee Kostroski
Playoff push begins
There is a very tight race in the West for the second-overall spot and home-court advantage for the teams seeded No. 1 through No. 4. The Lakers are locked into the No. 1 spot but Dallas, Denver, Utah, Phoenix, San Antonio and Oklahoma City are all fighting for the fourth seed or better.
The good news for Oklahoma City is that it is in the postseason. The bad news is that it sits in the eighth spot and would have to face the Lakers in the first round. The Thunder are currently tied with Portland and San Antonio in the standings and could move up as they get the Suns at home and also face the Blazers next week.
Suns on the rise
The Suns got a important 112-101 win over San Antonio Wednesday, which moved them into a tie for the second-best record in the West with Dallas and Denver. However, they are actually the fourth seed right now because Dallas and Denver are division leaders.
In their win over the Spurs, the Suns survived a close game throughout but finished strong and put the Spurs out of their misery in the fourth quarter .After a timeout, the Suns lineup of four subs and Grant Hill beat a Spurs team that had played at Sacramento a night earlier and had to bring Tony Parker off the bench in his second game back from a broken finger.
The Suns, coming off three-days' rest, went on a 19-7 run out of that fourth-quarter timeout, starting with a Jared Dudley 3-pointer and ending with two Goran Dragic steals that led to his 3-point play and a Hill slam for a 109-92 lead with 3:58 to go.
"JD (Dudley) did a really good job on limiting (Manu) Ginobili and we tried to limit (Duncan's) touches as much as we could," Suns coach Alvin Gentry told reporters. "We tried to be as active as we can and we tried to change it up as much as we could."
"It was pretty physical both ways," forward Louis Amundson told the media. "That's going to be playoff basketball for us. We've got to get ready for that intensity."
The Suns had won 10 straight games prior to losing to the Bucks in Milwaukee Sunday and, after Thursday's win, now stand 11-1 SU their last 12 games overall. Only one of those ten victories came by less than six points.
The Suns have been outstanding on the road lately, having won 12 of their last 15 away. But a closer look tells the real story as just four of those wins came against teams with a .500 or better record.
Stormy weather in OKC
On Tuesday night, the Thunder were jobbed by officials on a last-second call and should have won a critical game in Utah. Kevin Durant (90 percent free throw shooter) was fouled on the last shot of the game but a call was never made. The Thunder then lost a heartbreaker Thursday to the Nuggets, 98-94, which pushed them to the eighth in the West and three games behind the fourth-seeded Suns.
Oklahoma City led the Nuggets by 13-points with just 7:13 to play but managed to make just eight free throws and didn't convert a field goal in the final nine minutes of the game. The Thunder missed their final 11 shots and committed three turnovers in a four-possession span that let the Nuggets back into the game.
A lot had to do with the fact that the Thunder were playing their fourth game in a five-day span and the second night of a back-to-back. In a game when they should have been driving to the basket the Thunder chose to shoot from the perimeter.
"We settled," Jeff Green told the press. "We didn't try to be aggressive."
The Thunder are the youngest team in the league and are clearly learning the ropes when it comes to playoff basketball. Head coach Scott Brooks even made some strategic mistakes last night as he didn't use his bench enough when his starting five were fighting exhaustion.
"That's part of getting better," Brooks admitted to reporters. "Figuring it out if things aren't going your way."
Oklahoma City had been on a very impressive roll since late January. It has won 24-of-31 games but since dropped two very big contests to the Jazz and Nuggets. The Thunder are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games at home but that record is a little misleading as just three of those nine have come against winning teams.
Head to head
In the two regular season meetings, the road team has won both times. Back in December, the Thunder went into Phoenix as 8.5-point underdogs and won 117-113. The Thunder led by as many as 15 points in that game and were never really threatened. The glaring difference in that contest was a plus-10 rebounding advantage for the Thunder and a plus-3 turnover differential. Both teams shot well, over 47 percent from the field each.
In the most recent meeting in late February, the Suns captured a 104-102 win in OKC. In this game the Suns were plus-10 in rebounds and shot 51.3 percent as a team which proved to be the difference. Interestingly enough, Steve Nash didn't play in that game but Goran Dragic filled in with 16 points and 10 assists.
Trends
The underdog is a money-making 7-2-1 ATS the last 10 meetings between these two teams. The Suns are 9-2 ATS their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Thunder are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games versus a team with a winning road record.
Ironically, both teams are very good playing on Friday nights as the Suns are 16-4-1 ATS their last 21 while the Thunder are 13-3 ATS their last 16 Fridays.
The Suns are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win. Oklahoma City is 45-20 ATS in its last 65 games following a SU loss.
Friday's NBA Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The final Friday night of the NBA regular season is loaded with 13 games to wager on, but only a handful of contests have playoff seeding implications. The Western Conference is still jumbled up from spots 2-8 with plenty of combinations that can alter each team's fate in the playoffs. The Thunder looks to bounce back after consecutive tough division losses, while the Mavs try to knock off the Blazers for the first time in four tries. We'll start in the Eastern Conference as the Raptors look to stave off the Bulls for the final playoff spot with Toronto heading to Atlanta.
Raptors (38-40 SU, 36-42 ATS) at Hawks (49-29 SU, 45-33 ATS)
Toronto continues to play without leading scorer Chris Bosh, who suffered facial fractures following a stray elbow in Tuesday's loss at Cleveland. The absence of Bosh this season has proved detrimental to this Raptors' squad, as they travel to Atlanta to battle the Hawks.
Joe Johnson will likely return to the Atlanta lineup after missing the last three games with a sprained right thumb. The Hawks hurt themselves with consecutive road losses at Charlotte and Detroit, falling into a tie for the third seed with the Celtics at 49-29. Despite the fact Atlanta swept the season series from Boston, the Celtics would capture the third seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs in the event if both teams are tied due to Boston winning its division.
The Raptors have obviously struggled with Bosh out this season, but the ATS numbers are scary. Toronto is 3-5 SU and just 1-7 ATS without Bosh, including an 0-4 SU/ATS mark as an underdog. The defense has been a problem all season for the Raps, but the last four games have blown up those numbers. Toronto has allowed at least 113 points in this span, but its lack of defense has helped 'over' bettors cash by hitting in five of the last six games.
The Hawks are 5-2 ATS the previous seven at home, including wins over the Magic, Lakers, and Spurs. Atlanta has covered all three meetings this season, while going 2-1 SU. The Hawks compiled one of the highest-scoring games by dropping 146 points on the Raptors on December 2. Toronto's lone win in the series came on St. Patrick's Day, 106-105, but Atlanta cashed as three-point road underdogs.
Suns (51-27 SU, 45-32-1 ATS) at Thunder (48-30 SU, 46-32 ATS)
Oklahoma City lost some major ground for a higher seed in the Western race after two tough setbacks to Utah and Denver. The Thunder still has an opportunity to move up with a strong finish, but the road doesn't get easier when the Suns invade the Ford Center. Phoenix has won 10 of 11 after knocking off San Antonio, but the Suns are fighting tooth-and-nail to get home-court advantage in the first round.
Alvin Gentry's squad is 11-4 ATS on the road since January 31, including a 6-2 ATS mark when receiving points away the Valley. However, Phoenix is playing in its seventh different city since March 28. The Suns' offense has topped the 100-point plateau in 10 of the last 12 games, but Phoenix hasn't beaten a team over .500 on the road in this span. In fact, the last above .500 club that the Suns picked up a win on the highway against was over the Thunder back on February 23 with a 104-102 triumph.
Oklahoma City has rebounded nicely at home off a home defeat, going 6-1 SU/ATS in that role this season. The Thunder owns a solid 13-4 ATS mark coming off a non-cover at the Ford Center, as Scott Brooks' team has does a great job of helping OKC backers off an ATS loss. The 98-94 defeat to the Nuggets on Wednesday halted a five-game 'over' streak for the Thunder, as well as five consecutive outings with at least 100 points scored.
The late February two-point victory by the Suns was very much a back-and-forth affair as both teams owned double-digit leads at one point. OKC even rallied back from a 15-point deficit to pull ahead in the second half, but the Thunder shot just 44% from the floor to fall short. Kevin Durant lit up the Suns in a 117-113 victory on December 23 in the Valley with a 38-point effort. The Thunder covered easily as 8 ½-point 'dogs as the Suns' biggest lead was only three points.
Mavericks (51-27 SU, 33-44-1 ATS) at Blazers (48-30 SU, 42-34-2 ATS)
Dallas is creeping closer towards the second seed in the West, but the Mavs would like to avoid the Blazers at all costs in the postseason. Portland is 3-0 against Dallas as the Blazers are tied with San Antonio and Oklahoma City for the sixth spot.
The Mavs ended a two-game skid with a 110-84 thrashing of the Grizzlies on Wednesday. Dallas is just 6-5 since a 13-game winning streak after the All-Star Break, but the Mavs are 4-1 ATS the last five as a road underdog. The lone loss came at the Rose Garden on March 25 as the Mavs fell to Portland, 101-89 as 3 ½-point underdogs.
The Blazers are riding a nice hot streak, winning 16 of 20, including six straight at home. Portland won the final two games of a three-game trip with victories over the Kings and Clippers, but fell at Denver as five-point underdogs. Following a stretch of high-scoring contests, Portland has been held below 100 points in four of the last five games. However, Nate McMillan's club has limited opponents to below 90 points four times in the previous five games.
Portland stole a pair of games in Dallas by a combined six points, including a 114-112 overtime thriller on January 30. The Blazers pulled out that victory without Brandon Roy, but Andre Miller scored a career-high 52 points to help Portland cash as 8 ½-point 'dogs. The Mavs were held to 35 points in the second half of the 12-point setback at Portland in late March, as the Blazers nailed 50% of their shots from the floor.
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NBA/MLB RoundUp For 4/9
By Dan Bebe
Bucks @ Sixers - Milwaukee by 4.5 with a total of 194.5. This line is pretty fair, all things considered. I'm just still waiting for Milwaukee to have that drop-off game with Bogut out. They played the Bulls tough and picked up a road win, then crushed the pathetic Nets at home. Sixers are all but fishing. Strangely, though, Philly seems to match up well with Milwaukee, as they've won 2 of 3 straight up. I want to try to find a way to like Milwaukee, but not with the strange numbers against Philly this year. No lean on the side. I do lean Under, though, as these teams have played some ugly games this year.
Knicks @ Magic - Orlando by 11.5 with a total of 211.5. The Magic have been steamrolling teams, but I'm just not sure if we see the full roster in this one. They play in Cleveland in their next game, which begs the question of how hard they play in, really, any game the rest of the way. We need to be careful who we bet on, but this feels like a spot where Orlando takes it easy. They have no reason to stomp, and the Knicks are finding ways to compete, or at least more than you'd expect. Not a great game to wager on, believe me, but if you had to make a play, certainly look to the team trying to end the season with a few positive vibes, the Knicks. The total of 211.5 definitely screams that Orlando isn't going to be too concerned with defense. This total might be inflated because of recent numbers, but I still think it just barely squeezes up and Over.
Wizards @ Celtics - Boston by 11.5 with a total of 194. Another monster spread. Boston, to me, looks pretty determined to grab that 3rd spot in the East, but then they suffer a letdown like they did in New York. Coming off getting drilled in Orlando, though, the Wizards are probably a decent value. In my opinion, it's too late in the season to take shots on bad road teams that are done for the season. The Wizards have nothing to play for, and again, if this game was occurring in January, it would be worth taking a shot, but Boston still has a reason to want this game, and Washington doesn't. The only downside to Boston is that they may be a tad tired, but at home they've been shooting very, very well. Tiniest lean to the Celtics, probably best to avoid. The total of 194 assumes Boston plays some defense, or Washington just stinks, because it isn't going to be a slugfest. I think it might sneak Over, but probably not confident enough to pull the trigger, here.
Pacers @ Cavaliers - This line is OFF. This one should be interesting, as the Cavaliers not named Lebron put up a heck of a fight in Chicago, including a ridiculous shooting effort from Mo Williams. Will Lebron play in this one? I'd say it's highly likely Lebron goes and Mo sits, or maybe Jamison and Zydrunas, or something. All that uncertainty makes this game very difficult to bet on, if but for the fact that the Pacers played the Cavs tough about 3 weeks ago, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this resurgent club play Cleveland tough again. They shoot the ball much better at home than on the road, and that's a point of concern, but I think they put up a good fight, and hopefully the name Lebron will inflate the line a bit. Slight lean to Indiana. I also have a slight lean to the Over, since we saw how little Cleveland cared about defense in the first half against Chicago - I don't think they play strong until the second half again tonight.
Raptors @ Hawks - This line is OFF. Word is that Bosh won't play again during the regular season, and now that Toronto and Chicago are tied for the 8th playoff spot, this game is going to mean a ton. However, if you recall, Toronto had to try to play a few games without Bosh earlier this season, and it was a travesty. Toronto played well for one game without Bosh before, but not this time. They're dejected, and now they have to tackle one of the best home teams in the entire NBA. I'm not saying Atlanta blows them out, but Toronto most likely will not win this game, and I don't like backing an underdog that I don't think has a respectable shot to win the game. Slight lean to Atlanta, coming home off an embarrassing performance in Charlotte and another in Detroit. The health of Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby makes a big difference, though, so be careful. I think Toronto pushes the pace, and I believe this one has a decent shot to go Over, if Atlanta's healthy, once again.
Pistons @ Heat - This line is OFF. Richard Hamilton and Rodney Stuckey are questionable, and we've seen Miami manhandle the Pistons repeatedly, because really, Miami is just a souped up version of Detroit. Better wing players, better defense, and same, boring, slow basketball. And if Detroit is without their only player that can effectively drive the ball, if Miami is focused, this could be a long night. Miami played somewhat unfocused basketball in a narrow home win over the Sixers, but I don't think they take Detroit so lightly. If this line is less than 11.5, Miami might actually be a value, believe it or not. I'd most likely pass on another huge line, but in another gun-to-head situation, lean to Miami. The total might be a play, depending on the line. Both games in this series have been painfully low-scoring, and by all indications this should be, too, so let's see where the line opens up, and then assess any potential value.
Bulls @ Nets - Chicago by 5.5 with a total of 195.5. Fishiest line on the board, anyone? Chicago is coming off that wildly exhausting game last night at home against Cleveland, and just finally got even with the Raptors in the race for the final playoff spot. Now, they have to head on the road to play a team that wouldn't get a high school team's adrenaline going. You'd think that with Chicago coming off beating the Cavs, they would draw some love, even if they didn't cover. But watching the Bulls down the stretch last night, they were clearly tired, and I just feel like the Nets are in a rare position of power here, and can take advantage of a team that won't have the energy to go the full 48. Now, does that mean you play on Jersey? Not really, since Chicago definitely has more on the motivation side, and that makes this one a little disconcerting. Still, I can't back Chicago, here. Tiny lean to Jersey. The total of 195.5 is pretty accurate, but I expect Chicago to really try to get buckets near the rim with tired legs. I lean slightly Over, but barely.
Lakers @ Wolves - This line is OFF. The Lakers should be good and exhausted off a very late TNT game in Denver, then the substantial flight to Minnesota means we'll probably see some starters sitting in this one. Do the Wolves want to fight? I would argue that this game is the last reason for fans to actually come to the arena. The Wolves end their season with a home game against the Pistons, but come on. I think the fans will come out to see Kobe and the Lakers, even if the game is meaningless, and it makes me think that Minny will play about as hard as humanly possible. It might not be enough, though. Be careful here. This is another game where it would have been a no-brainer on Minnesota in January, but we just have no way of knowing who is going to play and who on Minnesota is going to try. Slight lean to the Wolves. On the total, the Lakers should get caught up in the running, at least for a half. I lean Over.
Suns @ Thunder - Oklahoma City by 3.5 with a total of 222. This should be an interesting one. Each team has won the road game in the series thus far, so this is the series decider, and both teams have a ton to play for as the West gets set for the playoffs. For that reason, I don't think this game is worth betting. I know, everyone wants to bet on the exciting game, but when both teams are motivated, and neither has much value due to all the publicity they're each getting, it's important to know when to step back and look for value elsewhere. I strongly advise a Pass on the side, UNLESS we see some obscene line movement. On the total of 222, well, you just have to know that number is inflated because of recent games for the Thunder. Strong lean to the Under.
Jazz @ Hornets - Utah by 6.5 with a total of 208.5. Utah is coming off an ugly game in Houston, where they simply had no juice in those legs off the overtime win against the Thunder. But today, against a Hornets team without Chris Paul, this one could get ugly quick. I know I rarely advocate backing the road chalk, so maybe I should start using these paragraphs as reasons to talk folks out of backing the home team. I know in the middle of the season, it's one bird, but the Hornets have nothing to play for, they got that one key home win over the Lakers, and now they're just riding out the stretch without their floor leader. Utah is still fighting for playoff position, and motivationally, they have a huge edge here. Lean to Utah, despite it being the clear public side. Lean to the Under, as well, since I don't see the Paul-less Hornets being able to muster the strength to power up more than 95. We saw them push the pace for about 3 weeks the first time Paul went down, then it caught up with them. I honestly just don't believe the Hornets have the mental fortitude to keep playing hard with so many letdowns this year.
Grizzlies @ Spurs - San Antonio by 10.5 with a total of 200. Wow, 10.5? That's a ton. I would love to back the Spurs in this game, since, again, they're battling with Portland and Oklahoma, among others, for positioning down in the lower half of the West, but to have to win by more than double digits is asking quite a lot. The Grizzlies are coming off getting stomped in Dallas, and it looks like they've about given up for the season. The Spurs are coming off a loss in Phoenix where they were clearly tired, and Manu Ginobili appeared to be more pooped than anyone. I expect him to come back and hit the Grizzlies right in the mug, but I'm not sure this is a bad enough spot for Memphis to expect them to lose by 20 points in two straight games. Teeny, tiny lean to Spurs, but I'd advise a pass on this side. The total of 200 assumes that Memphis can score. That's questionable, given their awful performance in Dallas. I don't think the Grizzlies play much defense, so the Spurs should break 100, but will Memphis break 95? This total looks accurate to me, as I think this one ends right around 202.
Bobcats @ Rockets - This line is OFF. I must say, I'm surprised at how close Charlotte's game with New Orleans was. I'm not sure if it was the lingering effects of clubbing the Hawks the night before, but the Hornets really gave the Bobcats a run for their money. Admittedly, we know Charlotte is not that strong on the road, and that's why I fear this game. They have all the motivation to want this one, but the Rockets are suddenly canning buckets like nobody's business. Let's see where this line comes out, but I'm guessing it won't be a good deal for anyone. No lean on the side. Houston's offensive prowess lately makes me think the Over might be in play.
Mavericks @ Blazers - Portland by 4 with a total of 192. Portland for the season sweep? It seems quite possible. We know Dallas is damn tough on the road, so if there's any chance of Dallas avoiding the dubious distinction of losing all 4 games to the Blazers this year, this would clearly be the spot to do it. Portland has the exact type of guys that bother the Mavericks, that's the bottom line. Sometimes there are teams that just match up very poorly, and for the Mavs, that team is Portland. Dirk has trouble with long, athletic defenders like Nicolas Batum and Lamarcus Aldridge, and even if he gets by those guys, Marcus Camby's long arms are patrolling the paint, and can bother Dirk's high-arching shot. I lean to Portland to grab that win, but this one should be relatively close to the line, I think. On the total, the last time these teams played, they scored over 110 points in the first half, and about 80 in the second half. There's a reason this number is so low. Oh and Dirk is apparently playing through a wrist injury. Lean to the Under.
Trend Report - Friday
By Ed Meyer
Pacers at Cavaliers – The Pacers are 0-8 ATS (-12.1 ppg) since November 15, 2003 on the road with at most one day of rest after a home win in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Pacers are 0-8 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since February 03, 2004 on the road with at most one day of rest off a win as a favorite in which they never trailed.
Wizards at Celtics – The Wizards are 0-9 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since January 09, 2006 before playing the Hawks at home. The Celtics are 0-8 ATS (-5.6 ppg) since May 01, 1999 at home with at least one day of rest after a double digit road win in which they shot at least 55% from the field.
Raptors at Hawks – The Raptors are 0-7 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since March 11, 2003 on the road with at most one day of rest after a double digit home loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The Hawks are 7-0 ATS (9.5 ppg) since February 02, 2008 at home with at least one day of rest after a game in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line.
Pistons at Heat – The Heat are 0-6-1 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since March 02, 2009 at home with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Heat are 6-0 ATS (6.3 ppg) since March 11, 2009 at home after a home win in which their DPA was positive.
Jazz at Hornets – The Jazz are 6-0-1 ATS (8.6 ppg) since November 13, 2009 on the road after a game in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average. The League is 0-6 ATS (-10.4 ppg) since November 20, 2006 at home off a loss of four points or fewer at home in which they trailed by 20+ points.
Knicks at Magic – The Knicks are 8-0-1 ATS (5.1 ppg) since February 23, 2003 on the road with at least one day of rest after a road loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The Magic are 0-6 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since November 03, 2008 after a game at home in which they shot at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.
Bulls at Nets – The Nets are 0-9 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since November 21, 2009 after a double digit loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists.
Bobcats at Rockets – The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since December 26, 2004 with at least one day of rest off a win of four points or fewer on the road in which they held a double digit lead.
Bucks at Sixers – The Bucks are 0-7-1 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since January 30, 2008 versus the Sixers. The 76ers are 7-0 ATS (7.7 ppg) since November 14, 2002 with at most one day of rest off a loss in which the game was tied at the end of the third quarter.
Grizzlies at Spurs – The Grizzlies are 0-6 ATS (-5.8 ppg) since December 02, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a game in which they allowed at least 55% from the field. The Spurs are 8-0-1 ATS (8.8 ppg) since November 28, 2007 at home with at most one day of rest after a loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Spurs are 7-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since February 06, 2010 and when facing a team they beat in their previous two match-ups of the season.
Suns at Thunder – The Suns are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since March 17, 2007 on the road after a game at home in which they shot at least 50% from the field and at least 85% from the free-throw line. The Suns are 7-0 ATS (7.7 ppg) since January 20, 2010 with at least one day of rest after a game in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Thunder are 9-0 ATS (17.8 ppg) since April 15, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Thunder are 7-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since December 19, 2008 after a home loss in which their DPA was negative.
Lakers at Timberwolves – The Timberwolves are 0-11 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since February 24, 2008 at home after a game at home in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.
Tips and Trends
Phoenix Suns at Oklahoma City Thunder
Suns: Phoenix continues their improbable run up the playoff standings in the Western Conference. The Suns were considering breaking up their roster at the All-Star break, yet here they are tied for 2nd in the Western Conference. Phoenix has won 11 of their past 12 games SU entering tonight. Phoenix is 51-27 SU and 45-32-1 ATS overall this season. The Suns are 21-18 SU and 22-17 ATS away from home this season. The Suns are 6-4 ATS in their past 10 games as the listed underdog this season. Phoenix keeps winning thanks to the most prolific offense in the NBA. The Suns are the only team in the NBA that average 110 PPG or more this season. Phoenix leads the NBA in a number of offensive categories including: FG%, 3PT FG%, and of course PPG. F Amar'e Stoudemire has been amazing this season, averaging team highs of 23 PPG and 8.8 RPG. Stoudemire has been so efficient this season in his scoring production, shooting better than 55% from the field this year. Credit PG Steve Nash, as he's the floor general for this prolific offense. Nash is averaging 16.6 PPG and an NBA high 11 APG this season.
Suns are 9-2 ATS last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 13-6 last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Key Injuries - C Robin Lopez (back) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 114
Thunder (-3.5, O/U 221): Oklahoma City could be starting to feel the pressure of the upcoming NBA Playoffs. The Thunder have lost their past 2 games SU, both in agonizing fashion. The Thunder have lost 2 close games to conference rivals Utah and Denver, showing their youth down the stretch. The Thunder are currently 48-30 SU and 46-32 ATS overall this season. Oklahoma City is in 8th place right now in the Western Conference, and would face the Lakers in the 1st Round if the playoffs started today. The Thunder could still move up in the standings though, as they are tied with both San Antonio and Portland heading into the final few games of the regular season. The Thunder are 25-14 SU and 20-19 ATS in home games this season. Oklahoma City has actually lost their past 3 home games ATS entering tonight's contest. The Thunder were held under 109 PTS offensively for the first time in 5 contests. The Thunder average 101.3 PPG this season, and are led by the F Kevin Durant. Durant leads the NBA in scoring, averaging exactly 30 PPG this season.
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Thunder are 11-4 ATS last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 5-1 last 6 overall.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 116 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers
Mavericks: Dallas continues to prove that they are a force to reckon with, as everyone in the Dallas organization expects to contend for the NBA Championship. Dallas is trying to lock up the #2 seed in the Western Conference, as they would like to avoid playing the Lakers until the Western Conference Finals. Since their mid-season trade, Dallas is playing with a ton of confidence knowing they match up well with any team in the NBA. Dallas is 51-27 SU and 33-44-1 ATS overall this season. The Mavericks have proved how great of a team they are by their road record of 24-14 SU this season. The Mavericks are also 23-15 ATS on the road this season. Dallas is 11-10 ATS as the listed underdog this season, despite losing their past 2 contests SU in this scenario. The most surprising factor of this game is the revenge factor for Dallas. The Mavericks have lost all 3 meetings with Portland this season, both SU and ATS. Revenge will clearly be on the minds of Dallas, despite the fact they are only 10-15 ATS in this revenge mode this year. F Dirk Nowitzki leads the Mavericks in scoring at 24.7 PPG, which places him 7th in the NBA.
Mavs are 7-2 ATS last 9 road games.
Under is 6-1 last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Key Injuries - F Shawn Marion (oblique) is questionable.
F Tim Thomas (personal) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 96 (Side of the Day)
Trail Blazers (-4, O/U 191.5): Portland has a way of flying under the radar, despite the fact they might be playing their very best basketball of the season right now. Portland has won 8 of their past 10 games SU, as they attempt to climb up the Western Conference playoff standings. Portland is 48-30 SU and 42-34-2 ATS overall this season. The Blazers are battling 2 other teams for the final 3 spots in the West. The Blazers are 25-13 SU and 19-19 ATS in home games this season. The Blazers are 28-20 ATS as the listed favorite this season, including 3-3 ATS as a home favorite between 3.5 and 6 PTS. Portland plays their best basketball against bad defenses, going 14-7 ATS against teams that allow more than 99 PPG this season. The Blazers have played 5 of their last 6 games away from home, so they will be happy to play in front of the best home crowd in the NBA. G Brandon Roy has been brilliant this season in leading the Blazers with 22 PPG. Roy has no weakness in his game, and is the player Portland depends on in the 4th quarter. F LaMarcus Aldridge is also having a good year, averaging 17.7 PPG and a team high 8.1 RPG this season.
Blazers are 6-0 ATS last 6 vs. NBA Southwest.
Under is 6-0 last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - C Marcus Camby (hamstring) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 94