Game of the day: Magic at Celtics
By Lee Kostroski
The skinny
A series that looked like a sweep a few days ago now has the Celtics taking a slim 3-2 lead into a pressure-packed Game 6 in Boston Friday night. Orlando has all the momentum going into Boston and will attempt to take another step toward overcoming an improbable 3-0 series deficit.
Boston has the home-court advantage, winning six of its eight home playoff games in 2010. But now, they may be dealing with various injuries to some key reserves. The road team and underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two and Orlando is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Boston.
Superman’s support
Dwight Howard has been nothing short of spectacular this series. He’s averaging 20.6 ppg, 10.6 rpg, and 3.4 blocks. Orlando expects a great performance by Howard night in and night out, so it’s going to be up to the supporting cast – specifically the 3-point shooters – to have an impact on winning this game.
Orlando has lived and died by the 3-point shot all season long and that hasn’t stopped in this series. The Magic were just 20 of 70 (28 percent) in the first three games. However, in the last two victories, they are 23-of-53 (43 percent) and they are looking a lot like the Orlando team that swept two straight series’ to get here.
"We're playing more of our game now, getting out in transition and just attacking and staying on the attack and trying to do it for 48 minutes," Magic point guard Jameer Nelson told reporters.
Nelson led the charge with a team-high four threes, but he enjoyed plenty of support. Six Magic players sank shots from 3-point range. A lot of Orlando’s success begins with Jameer Nelson. Nelson averaged just 14.6 ppg in the first three games of this series (all losses) and has averaged 23.5 ppg in the last two games (both Orlando victories).
It should be noted that no NBA team has won a series after losing the first three games. But the Magic believe 100 percent that they are going to win this series.
"We just all believe," Nelson said. "We all believe. We know we can do it, one game at a time."
Losing their edge
In the first three games of this series, the Celtics looked untouchable and destined to make their second finals appearance of the past three seasons.
Now, everything has turned upside down on Boston. Its hockey compatriot, the Bruins, know what it’s like to lose a 3-0 series lead and now the Celtics are coming close to joining them in their misery.
There’s obvious disappointment of dropping two close-out games, but head coach Doc Rivers insists that they aren’t panicking.
“It’s nothing that worries me,’’ Rivers told the media. “I don’t panic at all. This is playoff basketball, this is what it’s all about. It’s about being resilient. Being there for your teammates. This is what we do.’’
Still, the momentum they had built in the first three games of the series, let alone the feeling of dominance they had established after beating the Magic so thoroughly in Game 3, is gone.
To quote an overused cliché: defense wins championships. Boston’s defense, at times, has been impenetrable in the playoffs. And it’s apparent that when the Celtics’ defense plays well, they win.
They’ve allowed 77.0 points per game and haven’t allowed an opponent over 100 points in their 11 postseason wins. But in their five losses, they’ve allowed 107 ppg and four times allowed over 100 points.
Rajon Rondo averaged 18 ppg, 11 apg, and 6.2 rpg in the Celtics’ first two playoff series and garnered national attention for his strong play. But in this series, he’s been rather ineffective. His numbers are way down, averaging 14.4 ppg, 8.4 apg and 3.6 rpg. He’ll have to step up if the C’s are without some of their bigs in Game 6.
From the infirmary
Glen Davis, Marquise Daniels and Rasheed Wallace are all questionable heading into Game 6. Wallace tweaked his back and had to leave the game while Davis and Daniels are both being treated for concussions after scary blows to the head in Game 5. Boston's frontline will be very thin if Davis and Wallace can't go Friday and it could mean a huge game for Dwight Howard inside.
The Celtics lucked out when the NBA rescinded their technical foul call on starting center Kendrick Perkins. He was ejected in Game 5 after receiving a second technical foul of the game. But more importantly it was his seventh of the postseason – a mandatory suspension unless it is overturned. Perkins will play in Game 6 Friday night.
Trends
Orlando is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a SU victory and 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.
Boston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven playoff games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a SU loss.
Game 6, Magic at Celtics
By Kevin Rogers
The Celtics are either sweating or feeling relieved when they take the court for Game 6 on Friday night against the Magic. Orlando has forced the Eastern Conference Finals back to Boston after Wednesday's Game 5 blowout, cutting the series deficit to 3-2. Now, the C's have a home game to fall back on to advance to the NBA Finals. However, if it doesn't work out, the Celtics may follow in the footsteps of the Bruins in melting down after a building a 3-0 series lead.
For the first time in nine meetings, a team eclipsed the 100-point mark, which was accomplished by Orlando in Wednesday's 113-92 pasting of Boston. The key to victory was the Magic shooting lights out in Game 5, hitting 52% of their shots from the field and 13 shots from downtown. Jameer Nelson completely outplayed Rajon Rondo in Game 4, but the numbers were a little more even in Game 5. Nelson tallied a game-high 24 points, while Rondo put up 19. Dwight Howard was a monster in the middle once again with a 21-point, 10-rebound effort.
Orlando's shooting from the field was horrendous in the first three games of the series, as it got progressively worse from Game 1 to Game 3. The Magic shot 41.6% in the series opener, followed by 39.4% and 36.9% efforts, while hitting just 20 three-pointers in the three losses. Things turned around dramatically when the shots began to fall, drilling 44.6% of their shots in Game 4 and the 52% showing in Game 5. In the two wins, Orlando knocked down 43% of its three-point shots (23-53), a stark contrast from the 28% in the first three games (20-80).
The Celtics received a nice break after center Kendrick Perkins had a technical foul rescinded following his ejection in the Game 5 defeat. The technical, Perkins' seventh of the postseason, would have resulted in an automatic suspension for the following game. The league reviewed the matter and took away one of his two technicals, allowing Perkins to play on Friday. That is a huge break for Boston, as Glen Davis suffered a concussion and left the game, meaning "Big Baby" may not be available for Game 6.
Boston's defense had been exceptional throughout the postseason, as the Celtics allowed over 100 points for just the third time in the playoffs. The Celtics have been involved in eight playoff games in which at least one team scored 100 points or more. When that occurs, the 'over' is a strong 7-1, including an easy 'over' of 186 ½ in Game 5.
Doc Rivers' club started the postseason at 11-3 ATS, but has dropped consecutive games against the number. The Celtics covered seven of ten games this season off an ATS loss as an underdog, while owning a 5-2 ATS mark as a favorite this postseason.
We don't want to take the cart before the horse, but let's look at what Orlando is staring at if it can take this series to a Game 7. Never before in the NBA has a team rallied from a 3-0 deficit to win a best-of-seven series. Only twice has a club come from 3-0 down to force a Game 7, but never in the conference finals.
The 2003 Blazers dug themselves a 3-0 hole against the Mavericks in the first round. Portland came back to tie the series at three, including a pair of blowout wins at the Rose Garden. Dallas ultimately won the series finale at home, but the Mavs were eliminated in the conference finals by the Spurs. The 1994 Nuggets, who famously knocked off the top-seeded Sonics in the opening round after rallying from a 2-0 deficit, found themselves down 3-0 quickly to the Jazz in the second round. Denver shocked Utah in each of the next three games, but the Jazz prevailed with a 91-81 victory in Game 7.
The Magic is now 4-0 over the last two seasons when facing elimination against the Celtics, including a pair of wins to close out last season's second round down 3-2 to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics are 3-6 since the beginning of last postseason on the verge of eliminating an opponent, as all three victories have come at home.
Boston is listed as a three-point favorite, while the total is set at 189 at most books. The game tips off at 8:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on ESPN.
Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:
The NBA will normally do everything in its power to back its referees, but somebody needs to tell them that no one is paying to see the guys in gray. There are plenty of officials (you know who they are) that are trying to make the game about them and not about the players. If a player tries to flat-out embarrass an official, that's one thing; but these players should be able to chirp a bit more in the postseason and the tolerance should be lessened, especially in the case of Perkins.
The story is circulating about Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, and Joe Johnson getting set for a sit-down to discuss their free agent futures. This isn't shocking at all considering Wade and James are very tight, but I find it hard to believe that these guys are still weighing their options. Wade and James probably know if they'll stay put in their respective cities, or go elsewhere since all the salary cap information is so public. At least for now, free agency is on the back-burner with these series seeing a little more drama over the last few days.
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NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando (10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS) at Boston (11-5 SU and ATS)
The second-seeded Magic, who trailed the best-of-7 Eastern Conference finals 3-0, now have a chance to knot it up when they face the Celtics in Game 6 at TD Garden.
Orlando ran away from Boston in Game 5, outscoring the Celts 29-17 in the fourth quarter en route to a 113-92 blowout as a four-point home favorite. Jameer Nelson had 24 points, and Dwight Howard added 21 points, 10 rebounds and five blocks for the Magic. Orlando shot a solid 52.2 percent from the floor (36 of 69), including an eye-catching 52 percent from 3-point range (13 of 25), and Stan Van Gundy’s troops posted a hefty 43-26 edge on the glass.
Rasheed Wallace (21 points) was the only player to break 20 points for Boston, which shot 43.1 percent overall (31 of 72) and 43.8 percent from long distance (7 of 16). The Celtics had just four offensive rebounds, while allowing 10 for Orlando, and they got banged up – Glen Davis and Marquis Daniels both suffered concussions, putting their status in question, and Wallace tweaked his back.
Orlando is 5-4 SU and Boston 5-4 ATS in the nine meetings this year between these two, with the Magic taking Games 4 and 5 SU and ATS after a 5-1 ATS run (4-2 SU) by Boston. Despite Orlando holding court at home in Game 5, the road team and the visitor are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes in this rivalry, and the Magic are 4-1 ATS on their last five visits to the Garden.
The SU winner has cashed in 21 of the last 23 meetings between these teams, including 15 of the last 16 and the last six in a row. Additionally, the SU winner has cashed in each of Boston’s last 26 games overall, including all 16 playoff contests, and the SU winner is 20-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 21 contests.
Orlando is 30-17 (27-19-1 ATS) on the highway this season and has won 13 of its last 16 away from home (11-4-1 ATS), including Monday’s 96-92 overtime win as a seven-point pup in Game 4 in Beantown. The Magic are 5-1 SU and ATS in playoff roadies this year. Boston is 30-19 SU this season at the Garden but just 18-30-1 ATS. In the playoffs, the Celtics are 6-2 SU and ATS at home.
The Magic are on several positive pointspread sprees, including 22-8-1 overall, 7-1 in roadies, 7-1 after a spread-cover, 21-7-1 after a SU win, 20-7-1 after a day off and 18-7 against Atlantic Division foes.
Despite dropping their last two SU and ATS, the Celtics remain on pointspread upswings of 6-2 overall, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 6-2 at home, 6-2 after a day off, 5-2 laying points and 7-3 against the Southeast Division.
Orlando sports a bundle of “under” streaks, including 8-4-1 overall (5-2 last seven), 16-5 on Friday, 37-14-1 after a day off, 9-4 as a pup (all on the road) and 42-20 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Likewise, Boston is on “under” rolls of 10-4 in conference finals contests and 4-1 after a non-cover, but the over is 35-16 in the Celts’ last 51 starts after a SU loss.
The last two games of this series cleared the posted price, with Game 5 sailing over the 186½-point total. Still, the total has stayed low in 10 of the last 13 overall between these two teams (6-3 this season) and five of the last six meetings in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 5/28
By Dan Bebe
Magic @ Celtics - Boston by 2.5 with a total of 189. I can only picture the Boston brass sitting back in their coaches' room, and collectively muttering, in trademark Scooby Doo fashion, "ruh roh!" Not long ago, the Celtics were up 3-0 in this series, and things appeared to be completely over, but now, with every passing game, it seems like Boston is getting more and more banged up and tired, and the Magic seem to be getting healthier and more confident. As someone that thought Boston would wrap things up in game 5, I'm left in a bit of a quandary. For one, we learned in game 5 that Rajon Rondo is battling a mostly undisclosed nagging injury, Paul Pierce's back is "sore", Garnett is having personal issues, Kendrick Perkins might get suspended, Glen Davis and Marquis Daniels both suffered concussions (Big Baby staggering about on the court before being escorted to the locker room). And over on the Magic side, Matt Barnes' back is getting better, Dwight Howard is beginning to punish a handful of Celtics on a nightly basis, and the injuries to the Celtics are slowing them down enough on defense that guys like Rashard Lewis are getting just enough space to make a few shots and start trusting in his ability. This is going to be a Cortisone Day for the Celtics - everyone's going to be going full tilt, and you absolutely know Boston's priority is going to be to get out to a better start and try to force the Magic to play from behind, which hasn't been the case in the last 2 games. I'll be frank, I don't like the side, at all. Unless we can get a TRUE barometer of the health of the Celtics, especially Pierce and Rondo, it's a little bit of a crapshoot, and this game should be pretty close. No leans on the side just yet. As far as the total, the last game went sailing Over the mark, largely because the Magic hit both open and contested threes, and Boston's defense was lacking, potentially because of injuries and fatigue. I am absolutely concerned that Boston traveling and only getting 1 day off between games could continue to hurt them on the defensive side. The total is creeping back up near 190, and we might be up a creek here, too. Very slight lean to the Under, since I think Boston is going to go to the cortisone and potentially an IV at halftime if that's what it takes to really play full tilt, and we know that when Boston is right, they're a defense-first club.
NBA News and Notes
Magic scored average of 83.7 ppg in three losses; they scored 96/113 in two wins, with bench going 11-20 in decisive Game 4 win, with Lewis making 6-11 from floor as well. Orlando was +18 with Redick on floor, are +32 (55:17) in last two games (-7 when he is off floor-- 40:43). Ton of pressure on host Celtics to end series here, especially after Bruins of NHL blew 3-0 series lead in their playoffs. Nelson has 47 points in last two games, but Carter has been dismal (4-19 in their wins). Celtics got huge break from NBA when Perkins' technical was rescinded, canceling his automatic suspension for this game. Davis was banged up in Game 5, had a concussion, but is expected to play Friday night.