Monday's Best NBA Bets
Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic (-10.5, 211)
When the Orlando Magic blew up their roster before Christmas, they knew it was going to take some time for the team to come together. Apparently not as much time as most would think.
Orlando dropped its first two games after the big trade, but has reeled off five straight wins since then, covering each time. Speculation after the deal was that the team wasn’t finished with the shakeups and that they needed to add at least another big man to back up Dwight Howard, though now it looks like that is on the backburner.
"It's a matter of when the guy is available that you like,” coach Stan Van Gundy told reporters. “I think the one thing you don't want to do is just go out and commit to anybody and that takes you out of being able to get somebody who could really help you. So, I think right now we're OK."
Orlando has covered in seven of its last 10 games against Golden State and catch the Warriors need the end of a tough road trip. Look for the Magic to continue their streak.
Pick: Magic
Miami Heat at Charlotte Bobcats (+9, 191)
From the beginning, the Miami Heat have said their success will depend on their defensive play night in and night out. That’s not to say there won’t be hiccups along the way.
The Heat gave up 72 points and were trailing by 20 in the first half against Golden State before rallying in the second half to pull out a 114-107 victory as an 11.5-point favorite.
"We didn't have a lot of energy to start the game. Some of it had to do with us and some of it had to do with them executing their offense,” LeBron James told reporters. “We just didn't have what we usually have on the defensive end. When that happens, it makes it a lot easier for them offensively."
In the second half, it was a totally different story. The Heat pressured the ball on the perimeter to force turnovers and Golden State managed only one point midway through the third quarter. Miami regained the lead in the fourth quarter and put the game away.
The Heat have now won five straight and should continue on that run on Monday. They’ll come out quicker this time around.
Pick: Heat
NBA Betting Preview: Miami Heat at Bobcats
By: Brad Young
Southeast Division-leading Miami (26-9 straight up, 17-18 against the spread) begins a stretch of playing six of its next seven games on the road with Monday’s matchup against Charlotte. The Heat enter this contest riding a five-game SU winning streak, while going a modest 3-2 ATS.
Miami sits atop the division by outscoring its opponents by an average of 9.4 points per contest. The Heat are 5-1 SU against divisional opponents, and 9-1 ATS the previous 10 road contests. Miami ranks third in the league in points allowed (92.3), seventh in rebounds (42.8) and ninth in points per game (101.7).
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Charlotte (11-20 SU, 13-16-2 ATS) trails the Heat by 13 games in the standings, and is ahead of only Washington in the Southeast Division. The Bobcats have struggled to a 3-7 SU ledger their last 10 outings overall, and are getting outscored by an average of 4.8 points per game.
Miami continued its winning ways by beating Golden State Saturday as an 11½-point home ‘chalk,’ 114-107. The combined 221 points soared past the 202 ½-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash for the second consecutive contest.
The Heat overcame a 20-point first-half deficit by limiting the Warriors to just 12 points in the third quarter. Miami finished the game by shooting a robust 49 percent (35-of-71) from the field, and 43 percent (9-of-21) from behind the arc. The Heat also had noticeable advantages in rebounding (43-36) and assists (24-19).
Miami enjoyed a balanced attack in the victory, with forward LeBron James providing 25 points, seven rebounds and 10 assists while guard Dwyane Wade had 25, six and eight. Power forward Chris Bosh contributed 20 and 11 in the victory, while James Jones netted 13.
Charlotte had strung together back-to-back SU victories before falling to Golden State Friday as a four-point home favorite, 96-95. The combined 191 points failed to eclipse the 205 ½-point closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to improve to 8-2 the previous 10 games.
The Bobcats scored the final five points of the game, but they were unable to pullout the victory. Charlotte controlled the Warriors on the boards (50-39) and points in the paint (44-36), while shooting 42 percent (35-of-83) from the field and 31 percent (5-of-16) from 3-point land.
Guard Stephen Jackson accounted for 22 points and six rebounds in the setback, while forward Gerald Wallace had 20 and eight. Forward Boris Diaw provided 10 and seven, while center Nazr Mohammed recorded six and eight.
The home team has won the last four meetings in the Miami-Charlotte series SU, while the Bobcats are 4-0-1 ATS the previous five encounters. The Heat won the only matchup this season Nov. 19 as an 11 ½-point home ‘chalk,’ 95-87. The combined 182 points failed to topple the 190-point closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to cash fourth consecutive contest. The road team is 5-2-1 ATS the last eight meetings.
Miami follows this matchup with a home-and-home series versus Milwaukee before embarking on road games against Portland, the Los Angeles Clippers, Denver and Chicago. The Heat are 12-5 ATS the previous 17 outings overall.
Charlotte forward Tyrus Thomas is ‘questionable’ against the Heat due to a wrist injury. The Bobcats travel to Minnesota following this matchup before hosting Washington, Memphis and Chicago. Charlotte has seen the ‘under’ go 9-1 its previous 10 home games.
NBA RoundUp for 1/3/11
by Dan Bebe
Miami Heat (-9) @ Charlotte Bobcats with a total of 192
The Bobcats really had 1 high scoring game under the new up-tempo offense of Paul Silas, and the last two games have just been sloppy. Yes, they beat the hapless Cavs, but a home loss to the Warriors in a relatively low-scoring game (all things considered) bodes somewhat poorly for a showdown with the Heat. Miami beat Charlotte by 8 earlier this year at home as a 12-point favorite, so this number is pretty steep, but maybe warranted. The Bobcats are pretty darn bad, and Miami has won, now, 18 of 19 games, and aren't showing any signs of slowing. They play tremendous pick-and-roll defense, and I have no idea how Charlotte plans on scoring outside of some minimally functional isolation plays. This line is absolutely inflated, but I want no part of the Bobcats while they're in transition - PASS on the side, tiny lean to the OVER.
Golden State Warriors @ Orlando Magic (-10.5) with a total of 209
Something I'm going to try to do, and I know I've said this a thousand times, is organize my thoughts on these games. So, from this point forward, a plan I'm sure to deviate from before the week is done, I'm going to try to start the writeups with a quick assessment, then break down schedule, situational, and matchup angles in that order. The reason I go into detail on this one is that there really aren't any particularly interesting schedule angles, not much in the way of situationals, and matchup-wise, the only note is that Orlando has been scoring a ton, and defending a bit less. Also worth noting is that the Warriors just put up a monster effort in Miami, only to come up short, and Orlando has won and covered 5 straight. I'm not stepping in front of that freight, though I must admit, I do have a soft spot in my heart for the Warriors. Lean to the MAGIC, barely, and the total may sneak to about 211, so I guess, OVER, but probably a pass.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Boston Celtics with a total of N/A
We've seen Boston struggle on the second half of back-to-backs this year, and Minnesota is playing pretty well, but can they take the effort on the road? I must admit, I'm not excited about Minnesota playing away from home against a very strong defensive team. Scheduling-wise, Boston is obviously in the tougher spot, playing a back-to-back off a Sunday game in Toronto, while Minnesota is well-rested, and confident. Situationally, not much to speak of, though Boston is hosting San Antonio on Wednesday, and maybe there could be a hair of looking ahead. I'm inclined to doubt that plays a role. Minnesota has been able to get off to quick starts against good teams, and often blows the lead late, so given the fact that we'll likely see a number in this one up around double digits, that would put them in a decent spot. Small lean to the T'WOLVES and the OVER.
Philadelphia 76ers @ New Orleans Hornets (-6) with a total of 188
I think we're going to see a fair amount of Sixer money at this price, or perhaps more split than people think, since Philly has covered a handful of spreads on the road even without Andre Iguodala. And given New Orleans has really played some amazing defense in their two road games, I have to think they bring that same intensity to the floor, at home. The single biggest angle in this game comes from the scheduling side, though. Philadelphia is set to play the final game of an eight game road trip, and I would be wildly surprised to see them play with any sort of moxie in the second half of this one, especially if the Hornets D-up like they have been. Philly went a very solid 5-2 ATS on this long road trip, but this is an awful spot, and New Orleans was only gone from home for 2 days. Lean to the HORNETS and pretty strong to the UNDER.
Detroit Pistons @ Utah Jazz with a total of N/A
Strangely, Utah has been a little screwball offensively over the last week. It could very well be the Holidays, and the lack of good egg nog in no-alcohol country (this is a joke...), but more than likely, it's just a small team slump. Detroit, meanwhile, suffered an ugly loss in Phoenix, the Pistons' first awful performance in quite some time, amazingly. Detroit heads to LA tomorrow to battle the Lakers in what's sure to be a gigantic spread, but what we've seen from the Pistons is that they are just plain awful on the second half of back-to-backs, and often fairly serviceable when rested. I'm curious to see where this line comes out, though I'm not sure I have enough confidence to back Detroit against a good team with almost any number of points. And considering Utah is in the better scheduling and situational spot, this just feels like a nice, cool PASS on the side, and a glance at the UNDER on the total.
Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets (-6.5) with a total of 218
Don't look now, but Denver has played defense in 2 straight games...or did they just get lucky and face teams that couldn't shoot? That, to me, is one of two big questions in this game. Obviously, if you feel Denver actually played some defense, then 6.5 isn't too much. Also, with Houston playing in Portland late Sunday night (an hour earlier for Sunday, but still pretty darn late), and then traveling into altitude, Denver should be able to count on Houston missing just a few more outside shots than usual. The rather short spread (considering the back-to-back) is mildly disconcerting, though. I suppose it's important for us to step back and realize that the Rockets recent ATS winning ways have catapulted them back into bettors' minds, and they're getting more respect, as a result. And, amazingly, Denver is only 3 games better SU than Houston, despite the Rockets' poor start. Let's see how Houston does in Portland, but a hard-fought, close game would almost guarantee a play on NUGGETS, and those tired legs should hurt Houston's outside shooting, and I think this one squeaks UNDER.
Tips and Trends
Philadelphia Sixers at New Orleans Hornets
SIXERS: Philadelphia is one of the most improved teams in the NBA this season, as Coach Collins has his team playing outstanding defense. The Sixers are allowing 97.9 PPG this season, but they are playing even better defense than that of late. Philadelphia will be playing their final road game of an 8 game road trip. The Sixers are 5-14 SU and 12-6-1 ATS overall on the road this season. The Sixers are 17-8 ATS as the listed underdog this season. F Elton Brand is averaging team high of 14.9 PPG and 8.8 RPG this year. The Sixers are 13-20 SU and 22-10-1 ATS overall this year. The 76ers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. The 76ers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games. The 76ers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win. Philadelphia is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall. The 76ers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
Sixers are 8-0 ATS last 8 games following a SU loss.
Under is 10-2 last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Key Injuries - G Andre Iguodala (achilles) is OUT.
Projected Score: 90
HORNETS: (-6, O/U 188) New Orleans is competing hard, as they have won their past 2 games SU to stand 20-14 SU on the season. The Hornets are 13-4 SU and 10-7 ATS at home this year. New Orleans is 9-10 ATS as the listed favorite this season. Despite having one of the best floor generals in the NBA with PG Chris Paul, the Hornets are struggling offensively. New Orleans is averaging just 93.9 PPG this year, 5th fewest in the NBA. Defensively, the Hornets are allowing just 92.1 PPG, 2nd fewest in the league. The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a road winning percentage less than .400%. New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Hornets are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS win. New Orleans is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 1 days rest. The Hornets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Hornets are 5-0 ATS last 5 games against the Eastern Conference.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games against a team with a losing SU record.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 92 (UNDER-Total of the Day)