Monday's Best NBA Bet
Charlotte Bobcats at Utah Jazz
Jazz coach Jerry Sloan is known as one of the all-time greats, but not even the man who made the green John Deer hat famous has an answer for his team’s biggest problem: getting the team to play any defense when Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap are on the floor together.
Guards are tearing up Utah’s defenders because of the team’s atrocious pick-and-roll defense. Jefferson and Millsap both prefer to sag back off the pick and allow stud guard Deron Williams to chase the ball handlers. The results have been horrible.
Last year, the Jazz were second in fewest points allowed to a ball-handler off the pick and roll. This season, Utah is 18th in the league in giving up a shot or drawn foul to the attacking player.
Not only are Jefferson and Millsap hurting the team defensively, but forcing the bigger, more physical Williams (21 ppg, 9.4 apg, 3.6 rpg) to chase around the screen is tiring him out on offense. Over the team’s past five games, he is averaging about three points and one rebound below his season average while his shooting touch has dipped slightly by about 2 percent.
“We’ve had some games where you thought we’ve turned it around and figured it out,” Williams said, “but the games of late have led us to believe otherwise. … We just don’t have any confidence as a team right now, at either end of the court.”
Pick: Charlotte
Wizards battle NBA road odds at Dallas Mavericks
By: Barry Daniels
The Washington Wizards will again attempt to capture their first road win of the season when they travel to Dallas for a Tuesday matchup against a Mavericks squad that is in the midst of a four-game winning streak.
Tip-off is scheduled for 5:35 p.m. (PT), with Dallas a hefty 10½-point home favorite on the overnight line. The total is set at 195 points.
Washington, which saw its road losing skid reach 23 games after Saturday’s 107-93 setback at Memphis, now owns the third-worst road start in NBA history The Wizards failed to cover as nine-point underdogs, lowering their road spread record to 6-17.
The combined 200 points skipped above the 197-point closing total, which enabled the ‘over’ to cash in Washington’s last four games and improve to 14-9 in 23 road dates. However, the ‘under’ is still 25-21 in the club’s first 45 encounters.
Rookie John Wall led six Washington players in double figures with 14 points and added eight assists.
Washington has started this four-game road trip with two losses that couldn't have been more different. The Wizards suffered a spirited 124-117 overtime loss at Oklahoma City on Friday night as a 10 ½-point ‘dog.
Flip Saunders’ Wizards have now yielded 100 points or more in eight of their last 10 contests. They rank 22nd in the league defensively, allowing an average of 103.3 points per game. The opposition is shooting 47.1 percent from the field against the Wizards (25th) and 37.4 percent from beyond the arc (24th).
Offensively, the Wizards rank 22nd with an average of 97.2 points per game. They are 24th in both field goal percentage (44.3) and three-point shooting (33.8).
Dallas extended its winning streak to four games with Saturday’s 102-91 victory against the Atlanta Hawks as five-point home favorites. The win and cover improved Dallas’ home ledger to 18-8 SU and 11-13-2 ATS. The Mavs are defeating their opponents at home by just under four points per game (98.2 to 94.5).
The combined 193 points skipped above the 190½-point closing total, allowing the ‘over’ to cash in Dallas’ last six home games. The ‘over’ is now 15-11 in the squad’s 26 home dates and 25-21 overall.
Dirk Nowitzki lead seven Mavs in double figures with 19 points, while Jason Terry contributed 18 points and 11 assists.
Though the Mavericks rank sixth in the league by shooting 46.5 percent from the field, their 97.1 points per game average ranks a poor 23rd. However, they rank sixth defensively, allowing just 94.5 PPG.
Dallas and Washington have met once this season (Jan. 20), with the Mavs sneaking past the Wizards as four-point road favorites, 94-93.
The combined 187 point dipped below the 197-point closing total, leaving the ‘under’ 4-1 in the last five series meetings. The Wizards are now 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups against the Mavs.
Nowitzki once again led the Mavs with 28 points, while Shawn Marion added 12 points and 12 rebounds. Randy Foye led the Wizards with 27 points, with Brendan Haywood contributing 13 points and 18 rebounds.
The Mavs shot 45.9 percent from the floor compared to 44 percent for the Wizards. Washington won the rebounding battle (50-47), but the Mavs held a wide advantage in assists (27-15). Washington was 16-of-20 from the charity stripe compared to 12-of-14 for the visiting Mavs.
Washington will conclude its four-game road excursion Tuesday with a stop in New Orleans to play the Hornets. Dallas begins a three-game road trip Wednesday at Madison Square Garden for a match against the Knicks.
NBA Betting Preview: Bucks at LA Clippers
By: Stephen Nover
Blake Griffin has made the Los Angeles Clippers respectable.
The Clippers are so respectable they can break their team record for most consecutive home victories since the franchise moved from San Diego to Los Angeles for the 1984-85 season.
Los Angeles puts its eight-game win streak at Staples Center on the line Monday night at 7:35 PT when it hosts the Milwaukee Bucks.
Griffin has put up 38 double-doubles, including 32 in his last 33 games. The 6-foot-10 power forward, playing in his first full season, had 24 points and 10 rebounds in sparking the Clippers past Charlotte, 103-88, on Saturday night as 5½-point favorites. The combined 191 points just dipped ‘under’ the 192-point total.
The Clippers are 8-5 in January, clinching their first winning month since November of 2009.
Milwaukee, on the other hand, has been racked with injuries. This has resulted in an underachieving 19-26 mark for a team many thought would contend with Chicago to be the best in the Central Division.
Don’t be surprised, though, if the Bucks start to make a move while the Clippers slide since they are without Eric Gordon.
Gordon, the eighth-leading scorer in the NBA at 24.1 points a game, figures to be sidelined for at least a couple more weeks after chipping a bone in his right wrist during a 113-109 victory against Golden State on Jan. 22. The Clippers are 1-2 in their first three games minus Gordon.
The Bucks know all about being without key players. They have piled up nearly 160 player-game misses due to injury or illness. This has resulted in chemistry issues due to 13 different starting lineup combinations and offensive ineptitude.
Milwaukee ranks last in scoring at 91.7 per game and is 29th in field goal percentage shooting 42.6 percent from the floor. John Salmons, the Bucks’ second-leading scorer, has missed the seven games with a hip strain. Drew Gooden is sidelined with a foot injury and Michael Redd hasn’t play all season due to torn knee ligaments.
Only nine times have the Bucks reached triple-digits, going 7-2 in those games. Milwaukee is 2-18 when scoring 89 or fewer points.
Point guard Brandon Jennings, Milwaukee’s leading scorer at 17.9 points a game, came off the bench and played 11 minutes in the Bucks’ last game, a 91-81 home victory against New Jersey this past Saturday night. The Bucks were 6½-point favorites with the 172 combined points going ‘under’ the 183½-point total.
The Bucks were 8-11 during the 19 games Jennings missed because of a broken foot. Carlos Delfino recently returned for Milwaukee, too, after missing 32 games with concussion-like symptoms and a neck strain. Delfino, who scored 21 points versus the Nets, gives the Bucks a much needed outside shooting threat.
This marks the Bucks’ third game in a stretch where they play 12 of 13 games against foes with a losing mark. The Bucks have reached 98 points during four of their past seven games. Previously, Milwaukee had failed to reach 98 points in 17 of their last 21 games.
Milwaukee is 15-2 when scoring 96 or more points. The Clippers rank 19th defensively giving 101.5 points a game. The Bucks rate fourth on defense allowing 92.8 points per contest.
This is the first meeting between Milwaukee and the Clippers this season. The teams split last season with the Clippers winning, 101-93, as five-point home favorites and the game barely going ‘over’ the 193½-point total and the Bucks prevailing at home, 107-89 as 11-point favorites with the combined 196 points going ‘over’ the 191½-point total.
The Bucks have lost and failed to cover during their last two road games versus the Clippers.
NBA RoundUp for 1/31
by Dan Bebe
Denver Nuggets @ New Jersey Nets with a total of N/A
It seems somewhat likely that this line is on a delay because Denver is set to play a Sunday early evening game in Philadelphia, though I suppose an injury may have slipped past my view. Denver has (and we'll see if it continues) made a directed effort to shed the tag "bad road team" on this very road trip, and it's not a bad time to make that call, since Denver got to play Washington, Detroit, Philadelphia, and now Jersey, 4 very winnable games for a good Western Conference team. I don't think we're learning much new about the Nuggets, though it does prove they're still good enough to beat relatively poor teams at sea level. Of course, if there's a game Denver might lose on the road, this would be the one. It's the final game of the 4-games-in-6-nights road trip, and they head home to host a division rival (Blazers) on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Jersey continues to be a disaster on the road, but they've been playing significantly better at home, and I'm not sure anyone is noticing. I expect the Nuggets to open near a 4-point favorite, maybe a tiny bit less because of the back-to-back, and at that number, I think JERSEY can stick it out with a total that stays UNDER.
Toronto Raptors @ Indiana Pacers (-8) with a total of 208
Do we get the coaching change bump in basketball like we did in the NFL? I'm not really sure anything changes for Indiana. Maybe Jim O'Brien was stifling Roy Hibbert in some way, but then, I don't know what went on behind closed doors. This is a very winnable game for the Pacers, and we saw them wipe the floor with a weak road team in Jersey, and then get smashed by the Bulls yet again. Who knows what to expect from Indy, at this point? The Raptors are a total mess, too, and while one team most certainly has to win this game, asking a slumping team to cover 8 to 9 points is a lot. Keeping this writeup brief - this game comes down to whether you believe new Coach Vogel will motivate his guys into a short win streak. I personally don't know, but coaching changes usually do something, either good or bad. We'll take a shot with good and lean to INDIANA and the OVER.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat (-17.5) with a total of 202.5
This could very well be the Cavaliers last chance to get a win in the month of January, though as I write this, they gear up to try their wimpy little hands against the Magic. Frankly, it's unlikely that the Cavs will win either of these two games, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them cover one of the two. There's still some residual LeBronimosity lingering in Cleveland, especially as the season winds its way down one of the deepest, sludge-filled toilets in a humid Cleveland-area truck stop bathroom, and I wonder if that little tinge of hate doesn't get Cleveland a narrow cover. It's tough to win by 18 when Miami just finished up a huge win on the road in Oklahoma, and after this game heads to Orlando for a divisional showdown. Sandwiches for the Heat, anger for the Cavs, I think CLEVELAND weasels out a cover in a game that stays UNDER the total by a bucket.
Orlando Magic (-2) @ Memphis Grizzlies with a total of 198.5
I might be willing to chalk this one up as a possible revenge game, though Memphis will find themselves looking at a pretty different Orlando team. Still, Memphis did lose by 17 in an horrifically low-scoring effort down in Florida back in mid-November, and they can definitely play some basketball, especially at home. Memphis has, somewhat quietly, crept back up to the .500 mark on the season, winning 5 of their last 6, but those 6 games have been against largely bad teams, and this will be a true test. Maybe more importantly, Orlando, like Miami above, has a bit of a showdown coming up in a couple of days. Orlando does have 2 days off between games, so the look-ahead should be a little less severe than, say, a team on back-to-back, but they are playing in a little fatigue spot here, with a little look-ahead, against a team with a little revenge. Catching a theme? Little lean to MEMPHIS, and little lean to the UNDER.
Washington Wizards @ Dallas Mavericks with a total of N/A
Who knows? I mean, really. Washington is now starting to get a little hot under the collar, and Nick Young suggested that perhaps inconsistent play-calling is responsible for their road woes. I made a pact with myself not to bet on a team in turmoil, and though I suspect most of that ire will subside between games, and a good deal of it can be chalked up to just general frustration, if Washington is upset, truly upset, I can't back them. They're likely to be a nice value on the road for the rest of the season, since we're seeing lines continually inflated on this team that just can't get it done away from home, and they'll probably cover 1 of the final 2 games on this road trip, but I don't have strong feelings against Dallas, and that would be the only way I could get on board with the Wiz. PASS on the side, totals lean to the OVER, since the Wiz have played to 4 straight Overs, and Dallas, to 3.
Charlotte Bobcats @ Utah Jazz with a total of N/A
This is another of those weird spots where the HOME team is the one flying into altitude on a back-to-back. And, interestingly, the Bobcats, who we backed successfully in Phoenix and Golden State, and faded successfully in Los Angeles, are actually playing a "never surrender" brand of basketball that should be just perfect against a struggling team fighting fatigue. Deron Williams' health throws a bit of a wrench into the plan, since his return could mean that he's the only Jazz player with a full complement of fuel in the tank, and his absence could mean that the other guys try to play above themselves. Simply put, though, I like that Charlotte's only recent loss came in one of the most devastating of fatigue spots, and I like that Charlotte is going to fight for 48 minutes, even if they're pooped out. They could win this game. Lean to CHARLOTTE and the UNDER.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5) with a total of 188.5
I'm a little concerned that the Clippers don't really have the full spark without Eric Gordon. It leaves them without a guy that can truly create a shot off the dribble (and make it). Baron Davis can create plays, but he can't finish like he used to, and with the Bucks superior team defense, they might just force Davis to beat them. I wonder what we'll get from Griffin. He had a nice first half against Charlotte, but the Bobcats large bodies in the paint seemed to slow him down considerably in the second half. Luckily, the Clippers didn't need him against an exhausted Charlotte club, but playing against a rested Bucks team that is getting Jennings back into the mix is going to be a different type of challenge. The problems for Milwaukee continue to be on offense, and I'm not sure that Ersan Ilyasova can keep Griffin off the glass like Boris Diaw (much bulkier) could. The Clippers should win this game and keep playing well at home, but something tells me it's closer than most expect. CLIPPERS cover by free throws and the game stays UNDER.
Tips and Trends
Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies
MAGIC: (-1.5, O/U 198.5) Orlando has turned into one one of the most consistent winning teams in the NBA since their recent roster shakeup. The Magic are currently 31-17 SU and 22-25-1 ATS overall this season. Orlando is currently in 4th place in the Eastern Conference playoff chase. The Magic are 13-11 SU and 9-14 ATS on the road this season. Orlando is only 1-5 ATS as a road favorite of 3 PTS or fewer this year. Orlando is 10-8 ATS in non-conference games this season. C Dwight Howard is averaging team highs of 22.4 PPG and 13.4 RPG this year. The Magic are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Orlando is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against the Western Conference. The Magic are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite up to 4.5 points. Orlando is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Magic are 1-6 ATS last 7 games as a road favorite up to 4.5 points.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games playing on 0 days rest.
Key Injuries - G Gilbert Arenas (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 96
GRIZZLIES: Memphis has been playing well of late, as they've won 7 of their last 10 games SU. The Grizzles are 24-24 SU on the season, which puts them 9th place in the Western Conference. Memphis is currently chasing Phoenix for the critical 8th and final playoff spot in the West. Memphis is one of the most profitable teams in the NBA this year, as they are 29-18-1 ATS. The Grizzlies are 14-7 SU and 13-7 ATS at home this year. Memphis is 17-6 ATS as the listed underdog this season. F Zach Randolph is having an amazing season, as he's averaging team highs of 20.2 PPG and 13.3 RPG this year. The Grizzlies are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Memphis is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Grizzlies are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. The Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the NBA Southeast. Memphis is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
Grizzlies are 12-2 ATS last 14 games against a team with a winning SU record. Under is 5-0 last 5 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - G O.J. Mayo (suspension) is out.
Projected Score: 103 (SIDE of the Day)
Milwaukee Bucks at Los Angeles Clippers
BUCKS: Milwaukee has won their last 3 games SU, which has them within 0.5 games of Charlotte for the 8th and final playoff position in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks have battled injuries all season long, but they are still competing thanks to an aggressive defense. Milwaukee is allowing just 92.8 PPG this year, 4th fewest in the NBA. The Bucks are 19-26 SU and 21-22-2 ATS overall this season. Milwaukee is 8-16 SU and 12-12 ATS in road games this year. The Bucks are 12-11 ATS as the listed underdog this season. C Andrew Bogut is averaging 13.3 PPG and a team high 11.7 RPG this season for Milwaukee. The Bucks are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. Milwaukee is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the NBA Pacific. The Bucks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog up to 4.5 points. Milwaukee is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. The Bucks are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games against a team with a winning percentage below .400%. Milwaukee is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Monday games.
Bucks are 4-0 ATS last 4 games against a team with a losing SU record.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games against the Western Conference.
Key Injuries - G John Salmons (hip) is questionable.
Projected Score: 89
CLIPPERS: (-4, O/U 188.5) Los Angeles is the most talked about bad team in NBA history. Thanks to F Blake Griffin, the Clippers are a much hyped basketball team. Despite this, the Clippers are still just 18-28 SU and 23-22-1 ATS for the year. Los Angeles currently has the 3rd worst record in the Western Conference. The Clippers are 15-13 both SU and ATS at home this year. Los Angeles is 7-5 ATS as the listed favorite this season. The Clippers are 4-0 ATS as a home favorite between 3.5 and 6 PTS this year. Griffin is averaging 22.6 PPG and a team high 12.8 RPG this season. The Clippers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Los Angeles is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games as the listed favorite. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Eastern Conference. Los Angeles is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Clippers are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a SU win. Los Angeles is 16-35-2 ATS in their last 53 Monday games.
Clippers are 7-1 ATS last 8 home games.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - G Eric Gordon (wrist) is out.
Projected Score: 93 (UNDER-Total of the Day)