Monday's Best NBA Bets
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat (+1.5, 195.5)
Dwyane Wade isn’t happy these days and he took out his frustration on the refs Saturday against the Charlotte Bobcats. Wade, who didn’t get to the free throw line until the fourth quarter of the game, was given a technical foul for complaining.
“I’m just not getting to the line,” Wade told the South Florida Sun Sentinel following the 107-97 loss to the Bobcats. “I’m not trying to force it. I’m just playing the way I always play.”
Wade, who averages about 9.5 free throw attempts per game over his career, is shooting just 5.8 shots from the charity stripe a night over his last 10 games.
The All-Star guard isn’t going to get any free passes against the Hawks. Atlanta is hungry after dropping its last three games and has lanky wing players who do a good job of defending Wade.
Pick: Atlanta
Oklahoma City Thunder at Chicago Bulls (-1.5, 194.5)
Coaches will tell you that winning streaks are always welcome but maybe never more than when a bench boss is fighting off the pink slip. The Grim Reaper had Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro in a headlock but Del Negro escaped – at least temporarily – thanks in large part to his team’s four-game win streak.
Of course the person Del Negro should really be thanking is Derrick Rose. The Bulls point guard poured in 30 points and seven assists in a 101-93 win over the Orlando Magic.
“Don't count us out,” Rose told the Chicago Tribune. “We can compete with the best teams in the NBA. And we're not stopping here. We've found our groove and we're going to keep going.”
Chicago luck should come to an end against the visiting Thunder. Oklahoma City plays a great away from home and guard Thabo Sefolosha should be able to slow down Rose.
Pick: Oklahoma City
Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat
If familiarity breeds contempt, there should be animosity aplenty on Monday when the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat meet at AmericanAirlines Arena.
Joe Johnson poured in a team-high 28 points for the Hawks in a 112-108 overtime loss to the Knicks on Friday, as 11-point favorites. That game's combined 220 points sailed OVER the posted total of 205.
Al Horford collected a double-double with 22 points and 19 rebounds in the loss.
Dwyane Wade collected 29 points and dished out 11 assists in the Heat's 107-97 loss to the Bobcats on Saturday. The Heat were favored by 5-points in that game, while the 204 points sailed OVER the posted total of 187.
Current streak:
Atlanta has lost 3 straight games.
Miami has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Atlanta: 21-11 SU, 22-10 ATS
Miami: 16-15 SU, 15-16 ATS
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Monday are 3-7
Before playing New Jersey are 3-7
After playing New York are 5-5
After a loss are 7-3
Miami most recently:
When playing on Monday are 4-6
Before playing Boston are 5-5
After playing Charlotte are 4-6
After a loss are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Miami is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Miami's last 12 games when playing Atlanta
Next up:
Atlanta home to New Jersey, Wednesday, January 6
Miami home to Boston, Wednesday, January 6
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Chicago Bulls
The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Chicago Bulls will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at United Center.
The Thunder couldn't stop Michael Redd, falling 103-97 in overtime to the Bucks at the Bradley Center Saturday.
Milwaukee covered as a 1.5-point home favorite while the final score played OVER the 197-point total.
The Bulls got 30 points from Derrick Rose in a 101-93 win over the Magic at the United Center Saturday.
Chicago covered as a 3.5-point home underdog while the final score played OVER the 193-point total.
Current streak:
Chicago has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Oklahoma City: 18-15 SU, 20-13 ATS
Chicago: 14-17 SU, 12-17-2 ATS
Oklahoma City most recently:
When playing on Monday are 3-7
Before playing New Orleans are 4-6
After playing Milwaukee are 1-9
After a loss are 7-3
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Monday are 8-2
Before playing Charlotte are 7-3
After playing Orlando are 6-4
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Oklahoma City is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Oklahoma City is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games on the road
Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma City
Next up:
Oklahoma City home to New Orleans, Wednesday, January 6
Chicago at Charlotte, Tuesday, January 5
New Orleans Hornets vs. Utah Jazz
The New Orleans Hornets and the Utah Jazz will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at EnergySolutions Arena.
The Hornets got 28 points from Chris Paul in a 99-95 win over the Rockets at New Orleans Arena Saturday.
New Orleans covered as a 2.5-point home favorite while the final score UNDER the 194.5-point total.
The Jazz couldn't keep pace with the Nuggets, losing 105-95 at EnergySolutions Arena Saturday.
Denver covered as a 7.5-point road underdog while the final score played UNDER the 201.5-point total.
Current streak:
New Orleans has won 2 straight games.
Utah has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
New Orleans: 15-16 SU, 14-17 ATS
Utah: 18-15 SU, 18-15 ATS
New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
Before playing Oklahoma City are 6-4
After playing Houston are 7-3
After a win are 5-5
Utah most recently:
When playing on Monday are 6-4
Before playing Memphis are 4-6
After playing Denver are 6-4
After a loss are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Utah
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Utah is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing New Orleans
Utah is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
Utah is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
Next up:
New Orleans at Oklahoma City, Wednesday, January 6
Utah home to Memphis, Wednesday, January 6
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
The Portland Trail Blazers and the Los Angeles Clippers will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at STAPLES Center.
The Trail Blazers turned on the defense in the fourth quarter to take a 105-89 win over the Warriors at the Rose Garden Saturday.
Portland covered as a 3.5-point home favorite while the final score played UNDER the 213.5-point total.
Chris Kaman led the way with 26 points on Thursday night as the Clippers cruised to a 104-88 win over the 76ers.
The Clippers managed to cover the 1.5-point spread in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the night's posted total (196.5).
Current streak:
Portland has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Portland: 22-13 SU, 19-15-1 ATS
Los Angeles: 14-18 SU, 13-19 ATS
Portland most recently:
When playing on Monday are 3-7
Before playing Memphis are 5-5
After playing Golden State are 6-4
After a win are 5-5
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Monday are 4-6
Before playing LA Lakers are 5-5
After playing Philadelphia are 4-6
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
Portland is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing LA Clippers
Portland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games
Portland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the LA Clippers last 12 games at home
LA Clippers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games at home
LA Clippers are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games at home
LA Clippers are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against Portland
Next up:
Portland home to Memphis, Tuesday, January 5
LA Clippers home to LA Lakers, Wednesday, January 6
Atlanta (21-11, 22-10 ATS) at Miami (16-15, 15-16 ATS)
Two teams looking to end three-game losing streaks meet inside the American Airlines Arena in Miami when the Hawks visit the Heat in a Southeast Division showdown.
Atlanta comes in having dropped five of seven (3-4 ATS), including a 112-108 home loss to the Knicks on Friday as an 11-point favorite. The last time the Hawks were on the road was Wednesday when they lost 106-101 in Cleveland but got the cash as 5½-point ‘dogs. Atlanta hasn’t been playing much defense lately, allowing 107 points and 49.4 percent shooting over the last five games, including 41.4 percent shooting from beyond the three-point line.
Miami’s three-game SU and ATS losing streak (0-3 ATS) includes a disastrous 107-97 home loss to the Bobcats on Saturday, falling outright as a six-point favorite. The Heat’s three-game skid comes on the heels of winning five of six (both SU and ATS), including four of five at home.
The Hawks have dominated this series lately, including last year’s Eastern Conference playoff series, winning seven of the last 10 meetings (6-4 ATS). That includes a 105-90 victory on Nov. 18, cashing as a 7½-point home chalk. However, the host has covered in each of the last four clashes, and the Heat hold a 14-4 ATS advantage in the last 18 meetings in South Beach.
Atlanta comes in on pointspread surges of 9-4 overall, 5-2 on the road, 4-0-2 on Monday, 6-0 after a non-cover and 4-1 after getting two days off. Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last five after getting a day off, but otherwise is on ATS slides of 4-10 at home, 1-4 on Mondays and 8-21 at home against teams with a winning road record.
The Hawks have stayed under the total in seven of nine Monday games and 13 of 18 after a non-cover, but soared “over” the number in four of five overall and five of six against Eastern Conference teams. The Heat have stayed below the posted total in five of six overall and five of seven against Eastern Conference squads, but they are on “over” streaks of 29-11-1 after a non-cover and 34-16-1 after a straight-up loss. In this series, the “under” is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings, including 5-0 in the five clashes in Florida.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Top Earner
By SportsPic
Sure, the Hawks came up empty opening the New Year at Philips Arena with a 112-108 OT loss to the Knicks as -11 point favorites. However, Joe Johnson and company with the NBA's 4th ranked offense (104.9 PPG) remain the leagues top money earners at 22-10 ATS. Expect Hawks to get back in the win column Monday replenish betting accounts when they pay Miami Heat a visit on Monday night. Atlanta's scoring differential on the season being +6.1 better than Miami's makes Hawks worth a play at -1.5 favorites. Keep in mind, Hawks are 7-2 ATS on the highway the past two seasons after suffering back-2-back losses, 5-2 ATS this season on the road after scoring =>105 points the previous game, 18-8 ATS last two seasons after shooting =<30% from long range the previous game and 6-0 ATS following a ATS loss, 5-2 ATS last seven away, 7-3 ATS last ten as a favorite, 4-1 ATS the past five encounters with Miami.
NBA RoundUp For 1/4
By Dan Bebe
Hawks @ Heat - Miami getting 1.5 points at home with a total of 196.5. I'll tell you right now, looking at this card, with two games of a 1.5-point spread, I would not be surprised at all to see the sharps try to set up a few middles. I think the initial move on this one is that the line gets positively crushed towards Miami, possibly even making its way all the way to -1. If not this game, then the next one, which you'll be reading about momentarily. Generally, it's pretty easy to get that move, too. Sharps will bet it down to a pick, and steamchasers will do the rest of the work. From a handicapping standpoint, I don't feel like either of these teams has much in the way of momentum. The Heat have lost and failed to cover 3 consecutive games, and the culprit has clearly been poor defense. Miami gave up 95 to the low-scoring Hornets, then 108 and 107 to the Spurs and Bobcats, respectively. Miami isn't going to win any games when they give up 100 points, not to teams that defend well (like Charlotte and San Antonio), that's for sure. Poor defense against the Hawks will be curtains, as well, since we all know how Atlanta can score. That being said, the Hawks have not responded well to the back-to-back losses to the Cavs, as a lackluster defensive effort led to a Knicks OT victory over Atlanta on New Years Day. As a result of both teams' cold play, I think the side is a little low on value, though if you want to "bet like a Pro", you could probably grab the +1.5, and then wait and see if the line flips favorites. In terms of the total, I think it's a tad on the low side. Miami's defense, as we've seen, is suffering lately, and when Atlanta has any sort of say in the tempo, they prefer games up over 200. I lean Over.
Thunder @ Bulls - Bulls by 1.5 with a total of 194.5. Just as we saw two teams in the first game on the docket scuffling with a 1.5-point spread, here we see two teams playing good basketball with a 1.5-point spread. Once again, I imagine there's a decent shot that the +1.5 team gets steamed first for the potential two-dog middle, and once again I think the side isn't huge on value. The Bulls have won, and covered, 4 straight games, including their last victory, an 8-point thumping of the Orlando Magic. So, dare we say the "value" is down on Chicago, and fade them, or do we "ride the wave" while this team continues to win? I'm inclined to say that in most cases, I like the fade in this particular situation. Chicago is coming off a huge win over Orlando, as noted, and they're ripe for a small letdown. But, on the other hand, the Thunder had their own 5-game winning streak snapped by an OT loss in Milwaukee, and you guys all know how I feel about a young team coming off a win streak. I hate to do this again, but I'm running squarely into another game where I think neither side is sitting on an advantage on the line. You could try to play a middle again, but my attention is going to be mostly focused on the total. Before I break down the number, I should also note that if either this game or the one above starts moving violently to the favorite (such as the Bulls suddenly being favored by 2.5 or 3), that might be good enough reason to consider a play on that team, since both of these clubs are in position to play a good game, I just don't have strong feelings for either. The total of 194.5 feels just a shade high, as the Thunder are starting to cool off, and I like the way the Bulls have been playing defense on their current win streak.
Hornets @ Jazz - Utah by 8 with a total of 196. Here's a slightly more significant spread, up over that 7-point barrier that separates a game decided late from one that, well, may not be. This is a line based largely on home/road splits. Quickly, the Jazz are 12-5 at home, 6-10 on the road, +9.3 home vs. road final margin numbers. The Hornets are even more severe, 13-3 at home, 2-13 on the road, -10.2 road vs home final margin. So we're looking at two teams that appear to deserve 4-5 points when playing at home over a neutral court. I believe that's why we're seeing such a steep line for this game. It certainly isn't based on the last few games for each club. Utah has lost 2 in a row, a 1-point defeat in Oklahoma, and a 10-point home loss to the Melo and Billups-less Nuggets. New Orleans has won 2 of their last 3 games, both home victories to no one's surprise. So then, my initial impression is that this line is strikingly similar to the Knicks game yesterday. 8 points looks like a ton for a cold Jazz club taking on a hot-at-home Hornets club, but at the same time, Utah might very well wake up and deliver a beating in this one. Let's keep an eye on the line. The total of 196 looks extremely high with the way the Hornets have tried to slow games lately, but we have to remember that New Orleans' defense is dismal on the road. They allow just 96.7 points at home, but 105.1 on the road, and I'm not sure this game doesn't hit 210. I lean Over, but I need some line movement confirmation on this one, as well, since I'm not quite sure how well Deron Williams is, and his health is a huge factor in Utah's ability to not only score, but score quickly.
Trailblazers @ Clippers - Clippers by 3 with a total of 188.5. What the hell? The Clippers are favored to the Blazers? What has become of this world? Let me make sure I'm getting this right -- the Clippers, 14-18 on the season, underdogs of 6.5 points in Portland less than a week ago, are now considered (more or less) the Blazers' equal on a neutral court. Something is funny around these parts, and I intend to find out what it is. To the Clippers' credit, they have covered their last 3 games in a row, and this game will be their first since December 31. They have also shot 51%, 49% and 55% in their last 3 games, so the offense is "clicking" about as well as it can for LA. They also unleashed a furious fast break attack on the Sixers in the New Years Eve win that led to a monster second half and a 16-point thumping of a hot Philadelphia club. Once again, this team seems to be a total enigma. I hate inconsistency, as it is truly the bane of an NBA handicapper. Portland beat Golden State on January 2, so they won't be quite as well-rested, but after the loss to Philly, Portland has again won 2 straight. Lamarcus Aldridge is a concern, and his potential absence may have something to do with this odd line. Also, historically a much better home team, the Blazers have won their last 3 road contests, all as underdogs, so we can't discount them just because they're not giving away points. This is a tough one to make a call on, but I have to think that the Clippers get it done. If this game goes ANYTHING like the one up in Portland, the Clippers win easily. LA was the more aggressive team, and only lost that game because of Portland's ability to make tough shots in front of their home crowd. I also like the Under, since the game up in Oregon hit 202, yet oddsmakers have set this line almost 14 points lower than that total, and 1.5 points lower than the 190-point total we saw in the last game.
Trend Report - Monday
By Ed Meyer
Thunder at Bulls - The League is 0-7 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since February 19, 2008 as a road dog with at least one day of rest off an overtime road loss in which they held a double digit lead. The Thunder are 5-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since February 28, 2009 after a loss on the road in which Jeff Green played more than 40 minutes. The Bulls are 0-5 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since January 27, 2007 after a game in which they allowed a shooting percentage at least 10 percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Bulls are 0-6-1 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since April 19, 2005 as a favorite after a win when their opponent is off an overtime game. The Bulls are 7-0 OU (11.4 ppg) since December 20, 2004 at home after a win in which they allowed a shooting percentage at least 10 percentage points lower than their season-to-date average.
Trail Blazers at Clippers - The Trail Blazers are 9-0-1 ATS (12.3 ppg) since November 21, 2008 on the road when they have a revenge game next. The Clippers are 0-11 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since February 11, 1997 after a double digit win in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Clippers are 0-10 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since February 11, 1997 after a double digit win in which they committed at least twenty turnovers. The Clippers are 0-6 ATS (-14.2 ppg) since February 20, 2007 at home with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.
Hawks at Heat - The Hawks are 0-8 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since November 27, 2004 on the road after a home loss in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points. The Heat are 10-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since March 18, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Heat are 8-0 ATS (6.6 ppg) since January 24, 2009 after a game at home in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.
Hornets at Jazz - The Hornets are 9-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since March 29, 2000 on the road with at least one day of rest after a win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Hornets are 0-6 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since April 25, 2008 on the road when they won and covered as a favorite in each of their last two games. The League is 8-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since February 22, 2009 at home after a home loss in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average.
Tips and Trends
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
Hawks (-1.5, O/U 196.5): After starting the season in convincing fashion, the Hawks are now struggling. They've lost 5 of their past 7 games SU, 2 of which came in overtime. Atlanta is still 21-11 SU on the season, the 6th best record in the NBA. The Hawks are 9-7 SU and 11-5 ATS on the road this season. Of those 16 road games, the Hawks are 5-4 ATS as the listed road favorite. The Hawks haven't had consecutive ATS losses since November 26th. The Hawks are currently struggling due to their defense, as they have allowed opponents to average 107 PPG over their past 5 games. Offensively, the Hawks are 4th in the NBA at nearly 105 PPG. Atlanta has 5 players averaging double digits, led by G Joe Johnson. Johnson is averaging nearly 22 PPG this season. G Jamal Crawford averages 16.5 PPG off the bench for the Hawks, as he has reinvigorated both this Hawks offense and their bench play.
Hawks are 6-0 ATS last 6 games following an ATS loss.
Under is 9-3 last 12 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 101 (Side of the Day)
Heat: Miami has lost 3 straight games to stand at 16-15 SU on the season. The Heat have lost 6 of their past 10 home games SU. For the season, the Hawks are 8-11 ATS at home. Miami is 2-2 both SU and ATS as a home underdog this season. The Heat have yet to win or lose 3 straight games this entire season, making them extremely average. Miami has been outscored by 16 PPG over their previous 3 games. G Dwyane Wade leads this Heat team with 26.4 PPG, 5th most in the NBA. Wade and the Heat are revenging an earlier season loss to the Hawks that featured Wade's lowest point total of the season. 3 other Heat players average double digits, notably F Michael Beasley at 15.7 PPG. Defensively, the Heat are 10th in the NBA allowing 96.7 PPG. However, they've allowed their past 3 opponents to average more than 103 PPG.
Heat are 8-21 ATS last 29 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 10-3 last 13 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 93