Monday's Best NBA Bets
New Orleans Hornets at Dallas Mavericks
The New Orleans Hornets are earning their supporters a fortune early in the season. The Hornets are a perfect 8-0 straight up and against the spread as they head into Monday’s game with the Mavericks.
They aren’t doing it with smoke and mirrors either, instead leaning heavily on a suffocating defense that is allowing fewer than 90 points a night.
New Orleans is coming off a 107-87 blowout of the Portland Trailblazers as 4-point favorites.
"It's good to get a win and play our style of basketball," New Orleans forward Trevor Ariza told reporters after the win. "It's defense every night. It's been the key for us. We're all supposed to be one unit and that's what we try to display out there on the defensive end."
That’s exactly what under bettors like to hear. Saturday’s game played over the 188-point total, but it was just the second time New Orleans has topped a total this season. The Hornets have held all eight of their opponents to fewer than 100 points.
Pick: Under
Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic
Casual Orlando Magic fans probably can manage to be patient about the club’s 6-3 start out of the gate, but the club’s wagering supporters are singing a completely different tune.
The Magic have dropped six straight against the spread and have banked only a pair of paydays through their first eight games. Orlando lost outright to the Utah Jazz and the Toronto Raptors last week despite being favored by 10.5 points against Utah and 14.5 points against the Raptors.
"We're glad it's early in the season," Dwight Howard told reporters. "We're gonna make mistakes and we're gonna lose games here and there. But I think they just outplayed us and they played harder than us. It has nothing to do with defense or offense. They just outworked us."
The Magic rebounded to squeak by the New Jersey Nets 91-90 the last time they took the court, but dropped the cash as 7.5-point favorites. It comes down to the basics for Orlando. Over the last five games, the club is allowing more than 96 points a night while shooting only 63 percent from the free-throw line.
Pick: Grizzlies
NBA Odds: Hornets take perfection to Dallas
By: Willie Bee
As they say down in Bayou Country, "Laissez les bon temps roulez!"
The good times are indeed rolling for the New Orleans Hornets who remained the lone unbeaten team in the standings and against the NBA spread with a 107-87 win over the Trail Blazers on Saturday night. New Orleans' perfect 8-0 marks SU and ATS will be put to the test this week when the Hornets meet the Dallas Mavericks in a home-&-home series.
The first of the back-to-back matchups is Monday night at Dallas' American Airline Center (5:30 p.m. PT).
Though New Orleans' twin 8-0 records take center stage, the tight standings at the top of the Southwest Division might be the bigger story in Monday's meetings. A perfect run through their first eight games has netted the Hornets just a two-game lead over the 6-2 Mavericks with the 7-1 San Antonio Spurs sandwiched between. It's quickly becoming a three-team race among that trio with both Memphis and Houston in danger of being left in the dust.
The latest triumph for New Orleans came as five-point home chalk against Portland who suffered its second straight defeat. Hornets defenders limited the Blazers to 40.7 percent shooting from the field, helped by Brandon Roy's 1-of-7 evening while the Portland guard nurses a bum knee.
Seven New Orleans shooters finished with double figures on the scoreboard with David West and Marco Belinelli each canning 18. 'Over' bettors were rewarded for just the second time in eight Hornets games.
Dallas enters the fracas on a three-game winning run after a 99-90 triumph at home on Friday versus the 76ers. Jose Juan Berea came off the Mavericks bench for a game-high 19 points, his third successive contest to reach double digits on the scoring ledger. Centers Brendon Haywood and Tyson Chandler combined for 29 of Dallas' 47 rebounds.
The Mavs were aided by Philadelphia's poor free throw shooting with the Sixers missing nine of 23 charity tosses. Dallas' nine-point chalk line in the game 'pushed' at the window, leaving the Mavericks 4-3-1 versus the number. The 'under' 195 also left Dallas with the identical 6-2 record to the low side that New Orleans owns.
New Orleans will be playing its fourth road game of the campaign. Both of Dallas' losses have come on its home court where the Mavericks are 1-3-1 ATS.
The contest will pit two of the better squads defensively thus far. New Orleans is second in the NBA in both scoring defense (89.8 ppg) and opponents field goal percentage (42.3). Mavericks opponents are shooting a league-worst 42.0 percent with Dallas third in limiting the opposition to 91.5 points per game.
Dallas has a couple of injuries to report, though the Mavericks expect both Caron Butler and Dirk Nowitzki to play. Butler has missed the last two Mavs games with back trouble; Nowitzki started and played 36 minutes in Friday's win despite a sprained right ankle he suffered in last Wednesday's win in Memphis.
New Orleans and Dallas split their series last season with the home team taking all four battles. The Hornets were 1-0-1 ATS in Big D and 2-0 ATS at home. Three of the four contests went 'over' the NBA odds total.
Wednesday's rematch will find the two squads at the New Orleans Arena for a 5 p.m. tip. Adam Markowitz will have the preview here at DonBest.com. The Hornets will then host Cleveland on Friday before embarking on a four-game swing out west that begins in Sacramento on Sunday. Dallas follows Wednesday's matchup with a Friday home tilt versus the Bulls on ESPN and a Saturday road date in Atlanta.
Tips and Trends
Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
NUGGETS: Denver is coming off their best performance of the year, as they gave the Lakers their 1st loss of the season. Denver beat Los Angeles 118-112 thanks to a strong final quarter, something the players hope is a sign of things to come. The Nuggets are 5-4 SU and 4-4-1 ATS overall this year. The Nuggets are 2-3 SU and 2-2-1 ATS on the road this year. Denver is 3-1-1 ATS as the listed underdog this year. Denver has revenge on their minds, considering the Suns won the final 3 games against them last season SU, all by double figures. Denver is 5th in the NBA in scoring, averaging 105.6 PPG. All 5 starters are averaging double digits in scoring this year, led by F Carmelo Anthony. Anthony is averaging 25 PPG this year, including a season high 32 PTS against the Lakers in his last game. G Arron Afflalo has been a bright spot for the Nuggets this year, as he is averaging 12.7 PPG while playing stifling defense. The Nuggets are 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 road games overall. Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games overall.
Nuggets are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Under is 4-1 last 5 road games.
Key injuries - F Kenyon Martin is out.
Projected Score: 113
SUNS: (-1, O/U 217) It's been a tale of 2 seasons for Phoenix. After starting off 1-3 SU, the Suns have gone 3-1 SU since to stand at an even .500 on the year at 4-4 SU. Phoenix has scored at least 100 PTS in all but 2 of their games thus far. Phoenix is averaging 107.6 PPG this season, 4th best in the NBA. Despite having the 4th highest PPG total in the NBA, not one player averages more than 21 PPG this year. G Jason Richardson leads the Suns in scoring at 20.8 PPG. PG Steven Nash is averaging 19.9 PPG and a team high 9.5 APG this year. F Hakim Warrick has proven to be a solid addition for Phoenix, as he is enjoyed the uptempo style the Suns play. Warrick is averaging 13 PPG and 5 RPG for Phoenix. The Suns need to work on their defense, as all but 2 of their opponents has scored at least 106 PTS this year. The Suns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a losing road record. Phoenix is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the NBA Northwest. The Suns are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 games overall. Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games overall. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the Western Conference. Phoenix is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against a team with a winning SU record.
Suns are 2-5 ATS last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games against the NBA Northwest.
Key injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 116 (OVER-Total of the Day)
RoundUp for 11/15
By Dan Bebe
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Charlotte Bobcats (-9.5) with a total of 196.5
I would absolutely argue that now is a decent time to back BOTH of these teams...just not when they're playing each other. The Wolves are starting to play some half-decent basketball, led by Michael Beasley and Kevin Love who have suddenly formed a scoring/rebounding duo. The team, overall, is still pretty miserable, but they're starting to compete on a nightly basis, and a little confidence can go a long way. Here, they play the second half of a back-to-back against Charlotte, after covering last night in Atlanta in a losing effort. The Bobcats, meanwhile, seem to be finding a little defensive rhythm, at long last. Though they lost their last game to Utah on a last-second shot, the Bobcats had won 2 straight prior, and are starting to hold teams to low/mid-90's scores. They're still getting pulled in by the opponent's tempo to a certain degree, so I'd be a little cautious, and given that both teams are starting to play better basketball, that makes this one a toughie. Charlotte's style of play doesn't really lend itself to a monster blowout, so with that in mind, slight lean to the WOLVES, and slight lean to the UNDER.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Orlando Magic (-9) with a total of 200.5
I feel like we can really chalk this game up to the Magic, and their complete inability to cover spreads right now. The Magic are a decent 6-3 straight up, but a miserable 2-7 ATS. They're beating bad teams by small margins, and they've taken a few losses that they shouldn't have. Of course, we know how explosive they can be, and the Magic could wake up any day and beat someone by 25. Will it be this one? The Grizzlies are coming off a tough OT loss to the Celtics after fighting back to tie that game in regulation, and thus ended their short 3-game homestand with a rather pedestrian 1-2 record. I don't like what I've seen from the Grizzlies this year. Their defense has been bad, and while they have the talent to compete with most teams in a nightly basis, their lack of effort on that side of the court is eventually going to hurt them. Between Memphis playing terrible defense, and Orlando not really showing much heart in the regular season so far, this one is a coin flip. It's either going to be decided by 3 points, or 17. PASS on the side, and slight totals lean to the OVER.
New Orleans Hornets @ Dallas Mavericks with a total of N/A
Ah, this is our first truly interesting game of the day. The undefeated New Orleans Hornets, off a beatdown of the suddenly vulnerable Trailblazers, take their unblemished record into Dallas, and the ATS-nightmare that is the Mavericks' at home. Making this matchup even more interesting, beyond Dallas's issues at home and the Hornets' record, is the fact that this game marks the first of two straight meetings between these two teams. The rematch comes on Wednesday in New Orleans. So, in many cases, this is a spot where I'd offer two alternative methods of play, each with some positives, and each with some negatives. The first is the conservative play - watch this game, and play the home-and-home rematch according to how this one ends and the lines of the two games. This is what we'd do in most of these repeat battles, but to me, there are some factors that make even this first game worth considering. That's method number two - fade the Mavs at home again, since the line is likely going to be pretty fair, and the Hornets continue to outplay fair lines. Thus, feeling saucy, I offer leans on the HORNETS and the UNDER.
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns (-1.5) with a total of 218
I desperately want to find some tremendous angles in this game, since it seems like there should be a few. Phoenix is playing the second half of a back-to-back that began with the late game in Los Angeles (against the Lakers) last night, a game the Suns won with some outrageous 3-point shooting. Phoenix made 22 of 40 3-balls in that game with LA, and, simply, when you score 66 points that quickly, even the great teams are going to have a tough time, and that's just what happened. But, on the other side, Denver is coming off a nice home win over the Lakers, too! So, the two teams that have given the Lakers losses this year now do battle in Phoenix. The only real discrepancy between the two teams is the fatigue factor. Phoenix loses an hour (thanks to Arizona ignoring Daylight Saving time), and has not looked that strong on back-to-back games so far this year, most notably on offense, as they scored just 99 in Memphis in their most recent fatigue game. On top of that, Phoenix starts a 4-game road trip in Miami on Wednesday, so one could argue that despite Denver being the high-profile team they are, Phoenix might be thinking about taking something to LeBron. The Suns might very well keep the hot shooting going for 2 nights, but the law of averages and a few situational notes make me lean to DENVER on the side, and the UNDER on the total.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz with a total of N/A
The Thunder had a pretty predictable letdown yesterday against the Spurs, after posting that heroic win over the Blazers on Friday. Also, we should point out that, in retrospect, the Spurs have actually played the Thunder very, very well. That veteran savvy of the Spurs still can show the youngsters a thing or two. So, now, how does Oklahoma City respond to an ugly effort, at home, against the Spurs? Well, for one, they get to go after a division rival, and Oklahoma City is a nice 2-1 within the division so far this year. Who did they lose to? These Utah Jazz, at home, in a blowout. If you want to talk about a game where the Thunder have every reason to bring their top effort, you'd think it would be this one. The Thunder are coming off an ugly home loss, in a revenge spot, so they should be a nice team. What about Utah? Well, no team has been more impressive in the last week, flat out. The Jazz fell behind by double digits in EACH of 4 road games in Miami, Orlando, Atlanta and Charlotte, and came back to win all 4. Just flat out amazing. Of course, we managed to steal a cover with the Bobcats in that last game, and this one marks Utah's return home for the first time in a while. Can this Jazz team really kick it into high gear yet again? Something tells me we'll have a close game on our hands, and the back-to-back spot for Oklahoma City, to me, is actually an edge for them (ATS-wise), since they'll be catching 2 extra point. Lean to the THUNDER and the OVER.
Detroit Pistons @ Golden State Warriors (-7) with a total of 206
I desperately want to back someone in this game, but sometimes, you just have to bow to the competition of strong situational angles. See, with Detroit, they're playing the final game of a 4-game west coast road trip, that, to this point, has actually gone pretty darn well. They lost the opener in Portland, but responded with wins in LA (against the Clips) and in Sacramento, yesterday. I'm torn, here. Normally, a team on the final game of a road trip would start to look towards getting home, where the Pistons will be hosting the Lakers. I'm not sure if that's the case in this particular game, as Detroit is playing well, and I would hope that they'll take some sort of pride/pleasure in actually winning games. Still, I'm also not sure that we can fight such a strong situational angle. So, we bet Golden State? Not so fast. The Warriors are set to play their first home game off a 5-game road trip. They haven't been home since November 5th, and are still without the services of David Lee while he deals with his infected elbow. This is one of those rare games where we have two teams that we'd normally love to fade, but they happen to be playing one another. My advice is to watch this game and learn. If the Warriors lay an egg, betting them in their 2nd game home might be a nice move. If the Pistons lay an egg, betting them to play better at home might make sense. Tough call, but gun to my head, I lean PISTONS and the UNDER.
New Jersey Nets @ Los Angeles Clippers (-2) with a total of 189
From a pure situational angle, I think you have to like the Clippers, at least at a glance. I know they're all kinds of banged up and are a truly stellar 1-9 SU on the year (and that's not good, considering they're the listed favorite here), but this is their 2nd game back home off a long road trip, and they're playing a team that they know they can beat. That has to be hovering in the minds of the Clippers. Injuries definitely make backing the Clippers a tough move, but the Nets are coming off a painful loss, at home, to the Orlando Magic, a game that New Jersey led with 4 seconds remaining before having the win snatched away by Jameer Nelson. So, Jersey heads on the road in a bit of a letdown spot, and has to start with a game against the Clippers, a team that doesn't really inspire anyone to get up. Neither team really runs and guns, and we know Jersey is perfectly content playing a game that's slow as hell, but something just tells me the Clippers play a decent game. It's hovering more in the hunch neighborhood than anything else, since the Nets are probably the more talented team, but their long travels and the Clippers' desperate need for a win weigh heavily for me. Lean to the CLIPPERS and the UNDER.