Portland (8-3 SU and ATS) at Atlanta (8-2 SU, 9-1 ATS)
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Two of the hottest teams in the NBA square off inside Philips Arena as the Trailblazers conclude a five-game road trip with a battle against the Hawks.
Portland has rattled off six straight wins and spread-covers, including all four so far on this road trip. Most recently, the Blazers beat the Bobcats 80-74 on Saturday, cashing as a 2½-point favorite. Portland’s defense is allowing just 83.3 points per game on the road while limiting the opposition to 40 percent shooting from the field. Since a season-opening a 111-107 loss at Houston on Halloween, the Blazers have given up 97 points or fewer in nine straight games, holding six of those opponents to 84 points or less and three of the last four to less than 80 points.
Atlanta has won four in a row SU and ATS and crushed the Hornets 121-98 as a 12½-point home favorite Saturday. The Hawks are perfect at home this season at 4-0 SU and ATS, averaging 116.5 points a game while allowing just 99.
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These squads met back on Nov. 3 in Portland with the Hawks getting the 97-91 upset win as seven-point underdogs. Atlanta has won two straight in this series, including a 98-80 win in March as a four-point home chalk. The visitor is on a 10-2 ATS run in this rivalry, with the Blazers going 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to Atlanta. Also, the underdog has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings.
Portland comes into this one on several positive ATS streaks, including 24-9 overall, 5-0 on the road, 7-1 on Monday, 5-0 after a spread-cover and 6-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Hawks are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 9-1-1 overall, 18-7-2 at home, 12-3-1 against the Western Conference, 5-0-1 against Northwest Division teams and 3-0-2 on Monday.
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The Blazers are on a number of “under” trends, including 12-3 overall, 16-5 on the road, 19-7 on the road against opponents with winning home records, 5-1 against Southeast Division teams and 5-2 against the Eastern Conference. Atlanta has topped the total in four of five against the Western Conference and five of six overall, but it also carries “under” streaks of 7-1 on Monday and 8-3 after getting a day off. Finally, in this matchup, the “over” has been the play in eight of the last 11 meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Dallas (7-3 SU and ATS) at Milwaukee (5-2 SU and ATS)
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The Bucks look to win their fifth straight game when they welcome the Mavericks to the Bradley Center in Milwaukee.
Dallas comes in off Sunday’s 95-90 victory in Detroit, barely cashing as a 4½-point favorite. The Mavericks have won two of their first three on a four-game road trip (2-1 ATS), and they’re 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five overall. The SU winner has covered the spread in each of the Mavericks’ 10 games this season. Going back to last year, the winner has cashed in 24 of Dallas’ last 26 outings.
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Milwaukee has won four straight (3-1 ATS), including all three on a current six-game homestand. Rookie Brandon Jennings scored 55 points on Saturday, including 29 in the third quarter, to lead the Bucks to a 129-125 win over Golden State. However, Milwaukee came up short as 7½-point home favorite, ending a 5-0 ATS run. The Bucks are averaging 108.8 ppg at home (47.5 percent shooting, tallying 102, 108 and 129 in the last three.
The home team has won five straight (3-2 ATS) and seven of the last eight (6-2 ATS) in this series. Last January at the Bradley Center, the Bucks crushed Dallas 133-99 as a one-point home ‘dog, but went to Dallas a month later and lost 116-96 as a 7½-point pup. Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Mavericks, all as an underdog. Meanwhile, Dallas has failed to cover in nine straight games inside the Bradley Center.
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The Mavericks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall, but otherwise are on pointspread slides of 3-5 against the Eastern Conference, 10-24-1 against Central Division teams, 1-4 on the second night of a back-to-back, 0-4 on Monday and 2-5 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is on ATS surges of 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 after getting a day off, 11-3 against Southwest Division teams and 7-2 on Monday.
Dallas has stayed under the total in 16 of 21 when playing the second night of a back-to-back and eight of 10 Monday games. The Bucks are on “under” runs of 6-2-1 overall and 5-1 on Monday, but they’ve topped the total in four of five against the Western Conference and 21 of 31 against Southwest Division teams.
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Finally, the “over” is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings between these squads (3-0 last three) and 6-2 in the last eight in Milwaukee.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Charlotte Bobcats vs. Orlando Magic
The fans at Amway Arena will be treated to a game between the Charlotte Bobcats and the Orlando Magic when they take their seats on Monday.
The Bobcats were edged 80-74 by the Trail Blazers at Time Warner Cable Arena Saturday night.
Portland covered as a 2.5-point road favorite while the final score played under the 171.5-point total.
Dwight Howard picked up 26 points on Friday night as the Magic rolled to an 88-72 win over the Nets.
The Magic just managed to cover the 15.5-point spread in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the night's posted total (188.5).
Current streak:
Charlotte has lost 4 straight games.
Team records:
Charlotte: 3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS
Orlando: 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS
Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Monday are 5-5
Before playing Philadelphia are 3-7
After playing Portland are 1-9
After a loss are 3-7
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Monday are 5-5
Before playing Oklahoma City are 5-5
After playing New Jersey are 5-5
After a win are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Charlotte's last 9 games when playing Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Charlotte's last 6 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte's last 6 games on the road
Charlotte is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Orlando
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Orlando's last 9 games when playing Charlotte
Orlando is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Charlotte
Next up:
Charlotte at Philadelphia, Wednesday, November 18
Orlando home to Oklahoma City, Wednesday, November 18
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Atlanta Hawks
The Portland Trail Blazers and the Atlanta Hawks will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at Philips Arena.
The Trail Blazers edged the Bobcats 80-74 at Time Warner Cable Arena Saturday night.
Portland covered as a 2.5-point road favorite while the final score played under the 171.5-point total.
The Hawks took advantage of a reeling Hornets squad, winning 121-98 at Philips Arena Saturday.
Atlanta covered as 12.5-point home favorites while the final score played OVER the 196-point total.
Current streak:
Portland has won 6 straight games.
Atlanta has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Portland: 8-3 SU, 8-3 ATS
Atlanta: 8-2 SU, 9-1 ATS
Portland most recently:
When playing on Monday are 4-6
Before playing Detroit are 6-4
After playing Charlotte are 4-6
After a win are 5-5
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Monday are 3-7
Before playing Miami are 4-6
After playing New Orleans are 5-5
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Portland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Portland is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Atlanta is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
Next up:
Portland home to Detroit, Wednesday, November 18
Atlanta home to Miami, Wednesday, November 18
Dallas Mavericks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
The Dallas Mavericks and the Milwaukee Bucks will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at Bradley Center.
The Mavericks defeated Detroit 95-90 as a 4.5-point favorite on Sunday. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (184.5).
Dirk Nowitzki scored 25 points for Dallas and Drew Gooden had 11 points and 11 rebounds.
Current streak:
Dallas has won 2 straight games.
Milwaukee has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Dallas: 7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS
Milwaukee: 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Monday are 9-1
Before playing San Antonio are 7-3
After playing Detroit are 7-3
After a win are 6-4
Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Monday are 8-2
Before playing New Jersey are 6-4
After playing Golden State are 3-7
After a win are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 11 games when playing Milwaukee
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Milwaukee is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Next up:
Dallas home to San Antonio, Wednesday, November 18
Milwaukee home to New Jersey, Wednesday, November 18
Points at a premium
By SportsPic
The score keeper isn't likely to be overly busy Monday night when the Magicians and Bobcats hit Amway Arena hardwood. Magic with it's quality of play off significantly of late managing a lowly 87.0 points per game the past four on the hardwood may be hard pressed breaking out against Bobcats sporting the leagues 3rd best defense allowing the opposition 88.6 points/game. As for Cats who own the leagues worst offense at 82.4 points per game. They simply won't net many. Consider 'Under' knowing the teams are 8-1 'Under' last nine meetings, have a combined 13-4 'Under' record on Monday, Magic are 34-8 'Under' failing to hit the century mark in scoring, Bobcats are 11-4 'Under' away after shooting =<30% 3's, =<40%FG at home and 6-2 'Under' on the highway after scoring =<85 at home the previous contest. At this writing sportsbooks hadn't set a line or total due to Magic battling the flu bug.
NBA Preview for 11/16
by Dan Bebe
It's getting to that point with the Lakers, just as it does with anybody else. When a team loses an All-Star, whether that team is the reigning NBA Champion Lakers or the lowly Sacramento Kings, they step up for a few games, trying stretch their own feet into the size-17's left behind by their injured teammate. And usually they can do it...for a couple weeks. Of course, this is contingent on other talent existing on the same team (see New Jersey Nets for the exception).
Inevitably, playing with extra passion and going at, pardon the cliche, 120% of one's normal level of exertion will leave a man tired, and that's just what's happening to the Lakers right now. Kobe, Bynum, Odom, and co. have been trying to make up for the lack of Pau, and they've done a fine job of demonstrating that they're still part of the West's elite, but a dead-legged trip to Denver might have been the pin that popped the Lakers' shrinking energy balloon. The situation is far from dire, since any team with Kobe can continue to beat the lesser clubs in the League, but I fear the Lakers might have run out of steam for dealing with the equally skilled (Nuggets), and equally well-coached (Rockets) of the League. I would classify them as fade candidates in most tough games as a home favorite.
It'll happen to Sacramento, too. Mark my words.
Sports Wagering
Hawks/Blazers - This one has already climbed a small bit, with the Hawks favored by 4 at home with a total of 189.5. The line movement on the side has been fair so far, with early public money coming in on the red-hot Hawks, and forcing them to beat the defensive-minded Blazers by more than the 3.5's I was seeing late last night. We're also seeing big-time early money on the Over, though obviously there's a ton of time for things to even out. Portland has won 6 straight, including all 4 games in a fatiguing 4-games-in-5-nights road stretch. Maybe even more impressive is the work Portland's been doing on the defensive end of the floor: in those 6 wins, Portland has held their opposition to under 38% shooting 4 times! The totals of those 4 games have been 180, 172, 164 and 154. Of course, the totals in the other 2 wins were 209 and 191. So, really, the question for tonight is whether Portland can keep the Hawks high-fly act in check. It isn't going to be easy, considering the Hawks have shot under 40% in only one game this year, and that was on the road in Charlotte. They've gone over the total in 7 of their 10 games, and have shot over 50% in half of all games so far. This looks like a good old-fashioned tempo matchup. Normally, you'd give the advantage to the home team to control the tempo, but I'm not sure anyone can speed up the Blazers right now. Slight lean to the Under, slight lean to Portland on the side.
Magic/Bobcats - I'm hoping the damn Magic get healthy soon, because I'm awfully tired of dealing with all their games being "OFF" until noon eastern time. This one is extra-OFF, if such an expression can be used, as Orlando gets Rashard Lewis back. It'll be interesting to see if Rashard can shake off the rust in less than a game, though it usually takes even the best a little time to get their legs back. Charlotte has been horrible on the road, and watching their last game, at home against Portland, I'm just not sure I can trust this team to score with almost anyone. The line is going to be pretty high, as I believe oddsmakers saw the same things I did in Charlotte, and the Magic are only going to get better both offensively and defensively as this game wears on. More to come when the line is released.
Bucks/Mavericks - Bucks getting a point at home to the Mavs, with a total of 190. This one moved a bit overnight, as well, as the total made one small tick up (following the early public money on the Over), and the Bucks went from getting 1.5 to just having to settle for a measly point. The side interests me more than the total in this one, since it seems the Bucks PREFER to play a slower, structured game, but CAN get out and run, as we saw in their last game against the Warriors. I like Milwaukee to get it done at home. There, I said it. They've looked far better than most oddsmakers predicted, and I think they're just finally starting to adjust, given this nearly nonexistent spread in a game with a pretty strong team from the Western Conference. Yes, Dallas played last night and beat the Pistons in Detroit, so the back-to-back could play a roll in the shorter line, but for what it's worth, the trip from Detroit to Milwaukee is not one of the more grueling ones in sports. I think we'll see pretty consistent public money on the Mavs, since they know the name Dirk better than they know the name Jennings, at least for now, and I think we can probably use that to our advantage. That being said, my one concern is that Jennings, after posting 55 against Golden State, is due for a colder shooting night. Can the Bucks still take care of business if their new star can only give them 15-17 points?
Fantasy Advice
Leandro Barbosa - This is NOT where I tell you to pick him up OR drop him. This is where I advise you to put him on your watch list. Barbosa is dealing with all kinds of swelling in his wrist, which he had drained of fluid over the weekend before playing in Sunday's thrilling win over the Raptors. His numbers, as a result, have been horrid. If that wrist ever settles down, and if as many owners are giving up on Barbosa as I expect, then he could be a monster piece to land half-way through the season. At some point Phoenix will realize they're better off just resting him for a while, since they're clearly good enough to make the playoffs, and that's when we really need to train our eye on the speedy Brazilian.
Tips and Trends
Portland Trail Blazers at Atlanta Hawks
Blazers: Portland has lost 3 games this year, with one of them coming at home to the Hawks. The Blazers will be looking for revenge today. Blazers are 5-1 SU and ATS on the road this season. Today will be the first time this season that the Blazers are the underdog. The Blazers only have 3 players averaging double digits in points, with G Brandon Roy leading the way. Roy averages almost 21 PPG. Blazers have an additional 5 players averaging from 5 to 9 PPGG. This Blazers defense is playing really well right now, as they've held opponents under 85 points in 5 of their last 6 games.
Blazers are 5-0 ATS last 5 road games.
Under is 16-5 last 21 road games.
Key Injuries - F Travis Outlaw (foot) is questionable.
PG Jerryd Bayless (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 90
Hawks (-3.5, O/U 189): Atlanta is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS this season. Hawks are a perfect 4-0 at home both SU and ATS. The Hawks have had all double digit victories at home this season. This Hawks offense is legit, as they are top 5 in the NBA is scoring AVG, at 108 PPG. G Joe Johnson leads the team in scoring at almost 22 PPG. G Jamal Crawford averages more than 17 PPG off the bench for Atlanta.
Hawks are 16-5-1 ATS last 22 games as a home favorite.
Over is 8-3 last 11 meetings.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 98 (Side of the Day)