Monday's Best NBA Bets
Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs (-4, 196)
Looks like that whole Tony Parker-Eva Longoria divorce isn’t affecting the Spurs. San Antonio is 3-0 straight up and against the spread since the news of the split surfaced last week.
The Spurs have won 10 straight, covered in five consecutive games and appear to be getting better with every game.
Offseason pickup Tiago Splitter came into the season hurt and didn’t play much early on. That’s why San Antonio backers were pumped to see the rookie big man register 18 points in limited minutes against the Cavs.
“It’s a great run for us,” Tim Duncan told the San Antonio Express-News. “There’s going to be ups and downs, but I think this team is building on what we did last year.”
Splitter’s breakout couldn’t have come at a better time. San Antonio will need strong play from him and their other backup big men against Dwight Howard and the Magic.
Pick: Spurs
New Orleans Hornets at Los Angeles Clippers (+6, 196.5)
Blake Griffin is creating a lot of buzz for Los Angeles’ other NBA basketball team, but the Clippers continue to lose and lose big.
Coach Vinny Del Negro is trying to shake things up and end the club’s nine-game winless streak (4-5 ATS). He’s taking away a large portion of rookie point guard Eric Bledsoe’s minutes and given them to veteran Randy Foye.
Because of injuries, Del Negro has been giving more playing time than he’d like to first-year players.
"I give those guys a lot of credit," Del Negro told the Los Angeles Times about his rookies. "They are working. They're trying. They're preparing. It's just that you can't speed the process. It just takes time.
"[With] some guys, it happens quicker. They're getting valuable experience right now, and like I said, hopefully we can get our key guys back and get a rotation finally down and use the guys we have. You are having two, three rookies starting and that's difficult at this level."
New Orleans is rolling right now and will have no trouble with the Paper Clips.
Pick: Hornets
Sizzling Spurs host hot Magic
By: Joe Freda
The San Antonio Spurs have a 7-2-1 NBA spread record in their present 10-game winning streak. Gregg Popovich’s squad plays its second straight home game in Monday’s matchup against the Orlando Magic, who are 2-1 ATS in their last three contests.
San Antonio’s latest triumph came in Saturday’s 116-92 victory as a 10 ½-point home favorite against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Spurs hit 53.1 percent of their field buckets, while being outscored on fast breaks, 23-12.
Spurs guard Tony Parker logged team-highs of 19 points and nine assists. The three-time All-Star sank 7-of-11 from the field, while adding five rebounds.
San Antonio’s Tiago Splitter piled in 18 points and five rebounds off the bench. The Brazil native notched a team-high two blocks, playing a season-high 26 minutes.
The lopsided battle’s combined 208 points leaped above the ‘total’ of 201, making the ‘over’ 6-3 in the Spurs’ last nine games. Both clubs united to drain 17-of-35 shots from beyond the arc.
San Antonio improved to 4-3 ATS in its first seven home games, with the ‘over’ moving to 5-2. Parker and Co. have put up a scorching 111.1 PPG in that stretch.
Orlando pulled out a 90-86 win as a five-point road favorite in Saturday’s duel against the Indiana Pacers. The Magic held Indiana to 39.3 percent shooting from the field, allowing only 5-of-27 shots from three-point land to connect.
Magic center Dwight Howard notched team-highs of 25 points and 12 boards for a fourth straight double-double. The 24-year-old hit 7-of-14 from the field, while logging three blocks.
Orlando’s Jameer Nelson finished with nine assists and 11 points. The Pennsylvania native grabbed one steal but was also charged with a team-high four turnovers.
The tight affair’s combined 176 points plunged ‘under’ the ‘total’ of 196 ½. Both squads united to sink only 30-of-47 free throws.
The Magic dropped to 0-4 ATS in their first four road games, while the ‘under’ improved to 4-0. Stan Van Gundy’s squad has allowed a stingy 90 PPG in that stretch.
Orlando is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings against the Spurs, with the ‘over’ also going 3-1.
San Antonio won last April’s battle between the foes, 112-100, as a three-point home favorite. Spurs guard Manu Ginobili put up a season-high 43 points en route to his squad outscoring Orlando in the paint, 62-38.
Monday’s tip is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. (PT), with NBA TV providing the national television coverage.
Both clubs will be off for one night, resuming action as part of Wednesday’s league slate. San Antonio travels to meet the Minnesota Timberwolves, while Orlando returns home to face the Miami Heat.
Tips and Trends
Orlando Magic at San Antonio Spurs
MAGIC: Orlando has won their last 4 games, and stand 9-3 SU on the young season. The Magic are really focusing on their defense this year, and they've held each of their past 4 opponents to 90 PTS or fewer. As a result, the Magic are allowing just 90.3 PPG, the fewest in the entire NBA. C Dwight Howard is having an MVP caliber start to this season, as he's averaging 21.4 PPG, 11.1 RPG, and 2.7 BPG, all team highs. With so much attention paid to their defensive effort, the Magic aren't scoring like past seasons. Orlando will be the listed underdog for only the 2nd time this season tonight. The Magic were a 4 point road underdog to the Heat earlier this season, and ended up losing by 26 PTS. The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Western Conference. Orlando is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday games overall. The Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%. The Magic are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Orlando is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win. The Magic are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. Orlando is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games overall.
Magic are 7-2 ATS last 9 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Under is 37-17 last 54 road games overall.
Key Injuries - G Jason Williams (foot) is questionable.
Projected Score: 90
SPURS: (-4, O/U 196) San Antonio is off to a quick 11-1 SU record, the best mark in the NBA. The Spurs have won their past 10 games SU, with 5 of those games coming on the road. San Antonio is 8-3-1 ATS overall this season, including 5 consecutive ATS wins. The Spurs have scored at least 103 PTS in 5 of their last 6 games, and are averaging the 2nd most points in the NBA this season with 107.8 PPG. G Manu Ginobli leads the Spurs in scoring this season, averaging 20 PPG. PG Tony Parker is averaging 19.1 PPG and a team high 7.7 APG this year. Defensively, San Antonio is allowing 98.2 PPG. The Spurs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. San Antonio is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS win. The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU double digit win. The Spurs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Eastern Conference. San Antonio is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Spurs are 4-0 ATS last 4 games against a team with a winning record.
Under is 9-3 last 12 home games against a team with a road winning percentage greater than .600%.
Key Injuries - G James Anderson (foot) is out.
Projected Score: 101 (SIDE of the Day)
NBA RoundUp for 11/22
by Dan Bebe
Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks with a total of N/A
The only note that stands out about this line-less game is that Boston, so far this year, has been a whole lot slower on the second half of back-to-backs, which hurts their team defense, and hurts their outside shooting. This game, too, the young legs might be hurt. Rajon Rondo missed the game yesterday morning in Toronto, so the engine for the Celtics is making plunking noises, and you have to wonder how they'll handle a fairly physical team like Atlanta. It also strikes me that the Hawks probably want this one more than Boston, but that might be stretching our assumptions too far. Bottom line is that because Boston played yesterday morning, they actually have almost a day and a half to rest up for this one, so the legs might actually be alright, but the line is going to be adjusted 2 points regardless. Too many competing angles, in my opinion, but I will say that I wouldn't be surprised to see some shooting issues for both teams in a heated contest. NO LEAN on the side, lean to the UNDER.
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat with a total of N/A
I would assume this line is off because of the injury to Dwyane Wade. I almost hope he plays through pain, because I feel like his presence will inflate the line to a spot where Indiana has a hope of covering. In my mind, I'm seeing Miami winning this game by just under 10 points, and with Wade playing, I wouldn't be surprised to see this one open near 11. With him out, I'm not sure. Looking at the schedule, this game looks like a potential play on the Pacers. Indiana is coming off a hard-fought home loss to the Magic, but they played their butts off, and actually played some defense. The Pacers also host the Cavaliers tomorrow, which is a trademark letdown game off contests with Orlando and Miami. That makes me think Indiana is going to be amped to play in the House of Kings. On Miami's side, they return home off a disappointing loss in Memphis, and most folks are going to back the Heat on the remedial logic that they "won't look bad two games in a row." However, Miami plays in Orlando in their next contest in a revenge game for the Magic, and you have to think that game is on LeBron's mind. Let's wait on injury news and the opening number, but if things go the way we want, lean to PACERS and the UNDER.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder with a total of N/A
More injury woes, we must be in the middle of the NBA season...or getting there. Kevin Durant and Jeff Green are both game time decisions on this one, so we'll know more soon. The things to remember about this one. The Thunder, with or without superstars, just collected monster road wins in Boston and Milwaukee, and their very next game is with the road warrior Dallas Mavericks. Doesn't this Minnesota home game feel like the perfect spot to relax the sphincter for a day? I'd be very surprised if Oklahoma City played with the same tenacity in this game that they exhibited in their two most recent road wins, or even the two victories prior over Utah and Houston. The thing that does concern me here is that Minnesota has failed to cover their last 2 games, narrowly beating the hapless Clippers before getting smoked by the Lakers. Those 2 ATS losses followed 5 straight ATS wins, so I can't help but think that the Wolves aren't getting such inflated lines right now. Still, they're competing most nights, as Michael Beasley can get his own shot, and Kevin Love is a monster on the boards. The Thunder do a lot of their rebounding by outjumping other teams, so Love should have a shot to get a few off the offensive glass. Slight lean to MINNESOTA, and lean to OVER.
Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets with a total of N/A
More injury concerns. Will Steve Nash go? Can the Suns compete without him? Are the Rockets really this bad? This could very well be a battle of the ugly if Nash is out. Teams that don't give a flying [censored] about defense just trying to outscore the other. We all know Nash is the issue for the Suns, but Houston's issue is the bench. I had the displeasure of watching a Houston game on Friday, and what absolutely floored me was how pathetic this team looked when the second unit was on the floor. I think hot shooting from Chase Budinger in a few games has masked what is otherwise a terrible bench. Kyle Lowry got inserted into the starting lineup due to Aaron Brooks' injury, and with Yao out, guys have to play out of position. The end result is that they have zero firepower coming off the bench, and if the opponent has ANY, those first 4 minutes of the 2nd and 4th quarters can be disastrous. If Nash is healthy, the Suns have a decent second unit. If Nash is out, the whole ship goes down with him. Tiny lean to PHOENIX, but PASS if Nash is injured, and NO LEAN on total.
Orlando Magic @ San Antonio Spurs (-3.5) with a total of 196
Wow, apparently the World really loves the Spurs. I suppose San Antonio hasn't given them any reason not to, winning 11 of their first 12 games, including a dominant defensive effort in Utah, and then a beating of the Cavaliers back home the next night. This game will be a real test for the Spurs, playing, arguably, their best competition of the season...but something tells me they'll be up for it. The Magic have a nice record so far this year, but haven't really been that impressive. They rely very heavily on the 3-point shot, same as always, but it just seems like the older bodies are 1 year older, and Rashard Lewis is one year closer to going the way of Hedo Turkoglu. The interior defense is always going to be decent, with Howard near the rim, but the Spurs have a very clever set of schemes to attack most defenses. I will say, the Magic defend the pick-and-roll about as well as any team in the NBA, so we'll see if the Spurs try a few things. One thing is for sure, they'll be trying to get Dwight Howard in foul trouble. Covering 3.5 isn't easy in a tough game, and I worry that we're starting to see a little inflation. Even still, I think the Spurs have the chemistry advantage. Tiny lean to SAN ANTONIO, lean to the UNDER.
Sacramento Kings @ Utah Jazz (-11) with a total of 199.5
This is a very, very tough spot for the Kings. They played Sunday evening and got locked in an ugly defensive struggle with the New Orleans Hornets that they lost, but covered by a point. Then, they had to hop a plane and head into the altitude in Utah to take on the Jazz. Utah is coming off a nice win in Portland on Saturday, and I must admit, the potential for a letdown here is the one thing keeping me off that Utah side. It's a huge number, and probably inflated even more by the fact that the Kings have been stinking, but those second games in altitude are just a disaster for most teams. We saw the Nets handle themselves pretty well in Denver in just such a spot, but the Nets play a slower game, and the Nuggets are notorious for half-assing games, at least this year. The Jazz are not. Jerry Sloan would not stand for a weak effort, so the thought process is basically that if Utah wants to, they can win this game by 15-20. But off the win in Portland and with a game against New Orleans on the horizon, I am a little scared that we'll see 45 minutes of strong play, which might be enough for a 10-point win, but maybe not 15. Still, situationally, lean to UTAH and the UNDER.
Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors with a total of N/A
I'm having trouble, after watching the Nuggets in a few games this year, backing this Denver team if they're not personally invested in a game. They're not running and gunning like in years past, and I can't help but feel like they believe they've peaked. Chauncey isn't shooting like he used to, and can't defend like he used to, which has led to Denver becoming a little weak in the pick-and-roll defensively. The Nets exploited that all night long, and the Warriors run an absolute ton of pick and roll plays. Though, for the most part, the ball-handler just drives wildly to the rim and hopes someone else comes open. In truth, I don't think the Nuggets really care enough to cover most big lines, but against a team that doesn't really play any defense, this is just the type of game where Denver might actually play well. Just out and messing around. If David Lee was healthy, and the Warriors had their full complement of "tough guys" I'd lean in their direction, but given the issues that both teams have (mental vs. physical), it's hovering dangerously close to stay-away. Tiny lean to WARRIORS and OVER.
New Orleans Hornets (-6.5) @ Los Angeles Clippers with a total of 197.5
This is another game where, if the better team cares, they should win by a mile. The Clippers are just plain awful, and the only thing they have going is that Blake Griffin is a beast. The Hornets, though, have a couple large bodies on the interior that can do some boxing out. The Hornets have some big games coming up in Utah and Portland on this 4-game road trip, and while I know this line might be inflated (on the back end of a b2b), I just can't back the Clippers. Add to all that the fact that the Hornets are a perfect 8-0 SU and ATS against the Clippers the last 3+ years, and you've got yourself another series featuring "ownage." Just leave the sharp side alone in this one, and barring this one comes way, way down, avoid the square side, too. NO LEAN on the side, total lean to the UNDER.