Monday's Best NBA Bets
New Orleans Hornets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City had won and covered in six of their last seven games heading into Sunday’s date at Houston and have also beaten the Hornets in each of the last two meetings between the clubs.
The Thunder are giving up a bunch of points lately but have been rescued by an offense that is rarely held below the century mark. Kevin Durant doesn’t look like he’s having any problems with his wonky ankle after missing three games last week.
He put up 35 points and grabbed 11 boards in a 111-103 loss to the Mavericks and then followed that up with 25 points in a 110-106 overtime win over Indiana.
“On our team, we have a saying that the game starts at 10 o’clock during that breakfast meeting or in shootaround,” Durant told reporters recently. “That’s the kind of approach we’ve been having.”
This Oklahoma City club is all business and you can see that by their free-throw shooting as well. The Thunder rank first in the Association hitting 86 percent of their efforts from the charity stripe.
Pick: Thunder
Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz
The Utah Jazz are coming off an impressive four-game stretch that saw them win and cover in each against some solid opposition. Utah dropped Portland 103-94 as a 3.5-point underdog, covered in a win against Sacramento as a 10.5-point favorite and then beat both New Orleans and the Lakers.
The winning streak didn’t come easy though. The Jazz survived a third-quarter push by New Orleans and then outscored the Hornets 25-15 in the fourth and overcame a 33-17 deficit after the first frame against the Lakers.
Utah has come back from 11 points down to win seven different times already this season.
“The whole world knows if you won’t fight back. Everybody’s got televisions and stuff like that. People study that, scout that, and they find out who you are in those situations. Are you going to fold your tent, or are you going to come and fight for your life? I’ve been proud of these guys because they’ve done that.”
The Bucks will be in over their heads in this one against the scrappy Jazz.
Pick: Utah
NBA Odds: Heat regroup versus Wizards
By: Michael Robinson
The Miami Heat hope a recent players-only meeting turns their season around as they host the Washington Wizards on Monday night.
Miami dropped to 9-8 straight-up and 5-12 against the spread after a 106-95 Saturday night loss at Dallas as 2 ½-point ‘dogs. The ‘Big 3’ of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh scored 67 points, with the supporting cast chipping in just 28.
The Heat are now reeling at 1-4 SU in their last five games. The ATS numbers are even worse at 0-6 in the last six and 1-11 in the last 12.
The team had a meeting right after the Dallas game without coach Erik Spoelstra. That’s not uncommon in NBA circles, but it does add further speculation that Spoelstra could be replaced by team president Pat Riley if things don’t get turned around.
Talk can be cheap, but in this case it was good to have a meeting. There is way too much talent for a 9-8 mark. James and Wade do have to keep learning how to play together as each is used to dominating the ball. Bosh has been a rare bright spot lately averaging 22.7 PPG in the last seven after 14.5 PPG in the first 10.
Miami is still 5/2 to win the NBA title at Bodog.com. That trails only the Los Angeles Lakers (9/5) and is ahead of Eastern Conference powerhouses Boston (6/1) and Orlando (9/1).
It’s hard to justify those Miami championship odds with Mike Miller (thumb) out until at least Christmas and power forward Udonis Haslem (foot) out indefinitely. Big man Erick Dampier was signed to replace Haslem, but he doesn’t bring the same toughness.
Miami doesn’t have any consistent scorers outside the ‘Big 3,’ which is why it’s vital to get Miller back. The team has scored under 100 points in the last six games, helping the ‘under’ go 4-2.
The Heat also need to get more from the center and point guard positions. Tough opponents like Boston and Orlando can push them around underneath. Starting point guard Carlos Arroyo averages just 1.8 assists per game. Miami’s 19.8 APG ranks 22nd in the league.
The Wizards (5-10 SU, 6-9 ATS) are an exciting young team that has been in a lot of close games lately. The latest was a 100-99 Saturday home loss to Orlando. Guard Gilbert Arenas missed a game-winner at the buzzer, but Washington still ‘covered’ as 6 ½-point ‘dogs.
The combined 199-points went ‘over’ the 195-point total. The ‘over’ is 4-0 in Washington’s last four games.
Electric rookie John Wall missed the Orlando contest with a knee injury and is considered day-to-day. He missed four games earlier this month with a foot ailment. Wall leads the team at 18 PPG, but isn’t a great fit with Arenas in the backcourt.
Starting small forward Al Thornton (ankle) has missed the last two games and is day-to-day as well. Andray Blatche (age 24) and JaVale McGee (age 22) start at power forward and center respectively and just need to develop consistency. They match up well against the Miami ‘bigs.’
The Orlando game was important as it showed Washington can stay with a top team. The Wizards had an embarrassing 116-96 loss at Atlanta on Thanksgiving and a 114-83 loss at Boston on Nov. 17. They’re 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS on the road this year.
Miami went 3-1 SU and ATS against their Southeast Division rival Washington last year. The road team is 22-6-2 in the last 30 meetings overall and the ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight. Of course, both teams are radically different from prior years.
Tip-off from AmericanAirlines Arena is 4:30 p.m. (PT). Television broadcasts will be local. coverage.
NBA RoundUp for 11/29
by Dan Bebe
Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat with a total of N/A
We'll keep this one pretty short and pretty sweet. Be very, very careful fading the Heat the next couple games. Why? Word has it that Miami had a players-only meeting where all the guys got their frustrations out, owned up to the slow start, and decided to play harder and with a greater purpose. And that scares me a little bit. The Hawks had a similar meeting earlier this week, and have since rattled off 3 straight blowouts. If Miami is set to the do same, I don't want to step in front of that freight. Of course, it could be a lot of puffery, so I'm definitely not saying it's the right time to get behind Miami, just put the fade train on hold for a little bit. It's not really a look-ahead or letdown for either team, and it's not really a weird scheduling spot or rivalry. Put all that as a wash, and that meeting potentially looms large on what might actually not be quite a crazy line, just considering how the Heat have stunk, lately. Tiny lean to MIAMI and the UNDER.
New Orleans Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder with a total of N/A
The Hornets had their letdown game off the 4-game west coast trip, and the Spurs spanked them throughout the second half of Sunday afternoon's tilt. The best part about this game? The Thunder played their back-to-back in the evenings, while New Orleans played in the afternoon on Sunday. So, in some ways, the Hornets should be a little more spry. In other ways, though, the Hornets seem to be leveling off a little bit after a tremendous start. The Thunder don't really cover on defense the way the Spurs do, though they certainly can score. I feel like, to some small degree, the value in this game is probably going to be in the total. Oklahoma City had been playing some high scoring games before faltering a tad in Houston. We know New Orleans doesn't want to get into a running match with teams, since their strength is an ability to score in the half-court (thanks to Chris Paul) better than almost all of their opponents. A big game like this one, with both teams a little tired makes me think we'll see some conservative play, and after an awful defensive effort in the second half against the Spurs, I believe New Orleans will ratchet it up on defense and focus on not turning the ball over. A cautious game lends itself to a small HORNETS lean and UNDER lean.
Houston Rockets @ Dallas Mavericks (-9.5) with a total of 197
I still can't get on board with the Mavericks at home. I know they beat the Heat (sounds like an advertisement for an Air Conditioning company), but Dallas does have a track record of playing UP to certain competition at home, and then slipping past lesser teams. Just look at Dallas's various marks. They're a perfect 7-0 ATS on the road, 2-5 ATS at home. The two home games they covered? The opener, and the Heat. In between, they failed to cover against the Grizzlies, Nuggets, Celtics (though they did win this one), Hornets (another SU win), Sixers, Bulls and Pistons. There were a few pushes in there, depending on the line, but the fact remains that they cover at home when they get the juices flowing, and a packed house hating LeBron for 48 minutes got the team fired up. This is a bit of a letdown. The Rockets and the Wolves in the next two, and Dallas, off a stretch of games where they played 7 of 8 teams with winning records, will find it hard to get back up for this one. The Rockets have a tiny bit of momentum, too, winning at home over the Thunder, and any good news is something for this team, right? Houston is tough to trust, but the possible mental lapse for Dallas seems pretty big in the next 2 games. Lean to HOUSTON and the UNDER.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Utah Jazz with a total of N/A
Utah, with that workmanlike attitude, just keeps stomping. They beat the Lakers, then they still had the fortitude to travel to LA and beat the Clippers over the weekend. This is often a tough spot for road teams, traveling from California back into the altitude, but this time Utah has to do it. They do have a little more time than usual to acclimate, since their Sunday contest was in the afternoon (the Lakers get the evening spotlight, after all), so the line adjustment for back-to-back might be more than necessary. Also, by all indications, Andrew Bogut will not be making this trip to Utah, so Milwaukee is going to have to rely on pure shooting to win. I keep trying to convince myself that Milwaukee is going to be the way to go in this game, but Utah has the look of one of those teams that is just going to keep steamrolling until someone figures out a way to stop them. They might be the Hawks from a few years back, or the Bucks from last year...a team that people expected to take a step back without Boozer, but instead just keeps getting stronger. I hate to say it, but Utah is good enough to cover almost every night. Being relentless is one of the biggest weapons in ATS marks. Lean to the JAZZ and the UNDER.