Monday's Best NBA Bets
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic
These two teams haven’t played since last year’s playoff series. The Magic abused the Hawks back in May, sweeping them out of the postseason and covering in each game. Atlanta should be looking for some redemption here and things should be a bit easier for them because of Orlando’s injury problems.
Starting guards Jameer Nelson and Vince Carter are both banged up and questionable heading into Monday’s game against the undefeated Hawks. Nelson missed Sunday’s game with a sprained ankle while Carter injured himself slipping on a wet spot on the floor Saturday against the Bobcats.
Orlando coach Stan Van Gundy has been trying a bunch of different starting lineups so far, jumping back and forth from big and smaller units.
"Guys are going to have to get used to it," Van Gundy told the Orlando Sentinel. "I'm going to use our entire roster. And they've got to stay ready and perform. I'll be honest. I'll give more leeway to Jameer, Vince, Rashard (Lewis) and Dwight (Howard). But the other guys are not going to get a ton of leeway, especially in terms of their energy.
"I'll live with guys missing shots, but if I don't see the energy I think I need to see, I'll try to find somebody else."
Atlanta has its ducks in a row and should be looking for blood in this contest
Pick: Hawks
San Antonio Spurs at Charlotte Bobcats
Who said San Antonio is an old, slow boring team? The Spurs are off to a 4-1 start and much of the credit belongs to the club’s surprisingly effective offense.
Last year point guard Tony Parker missed 25 games because of injuries and small forward Richard Jefferson seemed confused out on the court. It’s been a different story this season.
Parker is back to his lightning quick self and Jefferson is more confident with his role on this team.
The result has been a charged San Antonio offensive attack. The Spurs are averaging 109 points per game and shooting 48 percent from the field.
Charlotte won’t be able to keep up with the Spurs on Monday.
Pick: Spurs
Denver Nuggets look to run with Bulls
By: Adam Markowitz
Last November, the Denver Nuggets swept the Chicago Bulls in two games in a span of 11 nights. Now, just about one year later, the two teams will lock horns again, this time in the United Center.
The Nuggets are starting to get their offense going, as they have scored at least 101 points in their four games since losing 101-95 to the New Orleans Hornets on October 29. This is the middle game of a three game road trip that started with a 103-92 win at the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday. On Tuesday, Denver will take the short trip from Chicago to Indianapolis, where the Indiana Pacers will be waiting.
With F Kenyon Martin and F Chris Andersen already out of the lineup, losing C Nene to a groin injury over the weekend was devastating for Denver's frontcourt. Al Harrington, Shelden Williams, Gary Forbes, and Melvin Ely are really the only names left that can bang on the inside, and the truth of the matter is that none of those four are really capable of fitting into this offense the same way that the original starters can.
The good news for the Nuggets is that F Carmelo Anthony isn't proving to be a distraction in spite of the fact that he continues to insist that he wants out of Denver. The former member of the Syracuse Orange is averaging 24.7 PPG this year, and he is shooting a blistering 53.3 percent from three point range to spark the offense. It seems to be a bit of an off year for his counterpart, G Chauncey Billups, though. Billups is only shooting 32.8 percent from the floor this year and is averaging just 15.5 PPG.
The Bulls have gotten a few individual performances of real note this year, but as a team, they just don't seem to have come together quite yet. A 110-105 overtime loss against the Boston Celtics on the Parquet Court marked a second straight defeat for Chicago, which now comes for a three game home stand. The last time the Bulls played at the United Center, they were upset 120-112 by the New York Knicks as 6 1/2-point favorites.
Center Joakim Noah is proving that he is a legitimate big man in this league. He has 16.2 PPG and 14.2 RPG this season, and he is really doing the grunt work to help the Bulls win the battle on the boards on a regular basis. His mate on the inside, F Luol Deng has a 40 point game to his credit this year, but he is only averaging 3.6 RPG and really isn't proving that he is tough enough to compete in the post.
On the outside though, G Derrick Rose is continuing to prove that he is amongst the best guards in the NBA. The third year man out of Memphis is averaging a whopping 25.0 PPG and 9.8 APG this year, and he is always a threat for 30 points and 15 dimes on a given night.
We've already mentioned last season's sweep by the Nuggets over the Bulls, but the two teams split the ATS proceedings with both home teams covering. Denver is a solid 10-4 ATS over the last 14 meetings, but that doesn't mean that you should be racing to the windows to place your NBA betting action on the hosts. The Nuggets are just 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 road games, while the Bulls are a solid 9-4 ATS in their last 13 overall dating back to last season.
NBA RoundUp For 11/8
By Dan Bebe
San Antonio Spurs (-3.5) @ Charlotte Bobcats with a total of 190.5
I have to say, I'm wildly surprised by the Spurs getting off to such a strong start in their 2010-11 season. This team is notorious for having those old legs that need a few weeks to get warmed up, but not so much this year. San Antonio is 4-1, with the loss coming to the undefeated Hornets. This is just a 1-game road "trip" for San Antonio, so not much in the way of scheduling notes, and their next game is at home against the Clippers, a team the Spurs have owned for a decade. Not a ton of reasons to like, or dislike, the Spurs. As far as the Bobcats are concerned, they're stinking up a storm. It's tough to argue they're getting any better, though they have covered in 2 of their last 3 games, despite being just 1-5 on the season thus far, straight up. I'd love to try to tell you guys that the "sharp" side is taking the home dog in this match-up, but the way these teams are playing, I simply can't trust the Bobcats until they look like they're putting something, anything, together. Lean to SAN ANTONIO and the UNDER.
Golden State Warriors @ Toronto Raptors (-2) with a total of 217.5
I suppose it's time to try to get a little more organized with these writeups, so we'll try to cover the three main aspects of each game: situational angles, the line, and any interesting motivation/matchup notes. From a situational spot, the Warriors are in a potential fatigue game, playing in Detroit yesterday in the early evening, but then, let's dig a little deeper. Detroit played a slow tempo, and while the Warriors took the loss, it wasn't like it was a heartbreaker, or an especially tiring game. In addition, we're still seeing the 2-point line swing for a back-to-back, even though Golden State finished their game about 2-3 hours earlier than usual, thanks to it being Sunday. On the Raptors side, this is their first game back home off a rough west coast road trip. They lost all 4, though they did cover 2. Still, that first game back is a rough one, especially on an opposite-Ocean, 4 game trip. Situationally, I think this favors Golden State. From a line perspective, it probably looks a little like a strong number for Toronto, but a lot of that is because of the back-to-back adjustment. And in terms of how the teams match up, I'd be surprised to see much in the way of defense. The first team to miss, loses. Lean to GOLDEN STATE and the UNDER, because of potential sluggishness on Toronto's side.
Atlanta Hawks @ Orlando Magic with a total of N/A
How far do we take the playoff revenge angle? Does the fact that Atlanta dropped one at home to Phoenix yesterday impact how we play this one, today? Well, if nothing else, the back-to-back will give the Hawks a couple more points when the line comes out. I must say, Atlanta losing to Phoenix sort of confirms the idea that this team was anxiously awaiting this game with Orlando. They turned it on too late against the Suns, and lost a winnable game, while perhaps waiting to try to get a little revenge on the Magic. But let's not count Orlando out so fast. The Magic just got done playing one team with playoff revenge on their minds, while failing to cover, and they must know they're going to get Atlanta's best shot. Let's see where this line comes out, but my sneaking suspicion is that folks are going to be on Orlando almost regardless of the line. And as bad as Atlanta's defense looked yesterday, and as bad as Atlanta's offense looked against the Magic in the postseason, I think this one has the potential to be a good game. Lean to ATLANTA and to the UNDER.
Denver Nuggets @ Chicago Bulls (-2.5) with a total of 207
This game is a classic no-play, and let me explain using largely schedule analysis. Chicago is coming off their brutal OT loss to the Boston Celtics, which was preceded by something of a look-ahead loss, at home, at the hands of the Knicks. Which Bulls team is going to show up here? A team suffering a letdown from the loss in Boston? A team ready to rumble, pissed about said loss in Boston? Very tough to say. The Denver side is equally screwball. Denver is coming off a revenge win in Dallas on Saturday, a game that they clearly just wanted more than Dallas, and I would guess, largely, because Dallas stole one in Denver a couple days earlier. So, does Denver have a letdown game, here? Tough to say. The offense is clicking the last couple nights, Carmelo doing a ton of the damage, and they're smack in the middle of a 3-game road trip, so there's no real key situational note there. I will mention, though, that Denver plays in Indiana tomorrow as a 4th game in 5 nights, then plays host to the Lakers in their first home game after 1 day of rest. I would argue the game tomorrow in Indiana is a bad spot for Denver, but this one is a pretty neutral spot. This line is spot on. PASS on the side, and tiny lean to OVER on the total.
Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies (-3) with a total of 214.5
Oh, sweet revenge...maybe? I desperately want to back Memphis to get some revenge on the Suns, who somehow caught them in Phoenix, took that game to OT, and then beat the Grizzlies in bonus time. Both teams had a game in between the rematch, with Memphis playing the following night in Sacramento and winning 100-91, and Phoenix winning a tight one in Atlanta last night. Based on the revenge angle, you have to think Memphis comes out with a purpose, and given Phoenix played last night, folks might jump on the idea that the Suns are pooped out. But this is also a "first game home" spot for the Grizzlies, who just finished up a 4-game Pacific Division road trip with that win in Sacramento. They're certainly in a position to play a little sluggish, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a Suns team that suddenly looks a little less confused in the 4th quarter come into Memphis and steal the one that's supposed to be a revenge game, and supposed to be a home game to get Memphis back on track. I'm shirking revenge here, and leaning PHOENIX and the UNDER.
Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks (-3.5) with a total of 191
Boston heads to Dallas off beating the pants off the Thunder last night, and looking like a well-oiled machine in the process. Dallas didn't play yesterday, but lost at home to the Nuggets on Saturday, and continues to be a bit of a risky proposition, ATS, at home, picking up right where they left off last year. They're 2-0 ATS on the road, 1-2 at home, and this line is a little bit on the high side because of Boston's "fatigue." I will say, though, that Boston has not looked like the same team when playing a back-to-back, losing outright on the road in Cleveland in their first b2b, and then needing overtime to beat the Bucks in their 2nd btb. This is the 3rd time Boston has had to play 2 games in 2 nights so far this year, and considering all the OT games they've logged, and going up against Durant last night, one has to think that perhaps the minutes are piling up a bit too quickly. Dallas is almost too scary to back at home, but the one final note is that Boston's next game is down in South Beach, and though they have a couple days off to think about it, there might be a tiny look-ahead going on, here. Slight lean to DALLAS, and tiny lean to the OVER.
Tips and Trends
Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls
NUGGETS: Denver is off to a 4-2 SU start in the brutally difficult Northwest division. It's vital that Denver gets off to a quick start this year considering all the trade rumors surrounding both F Carmelo Anthony and G Chauncey Billups. Denver has scored more than 100 PTS in 5 of their 6 games this season. The Nuggets are averaging 104.5 PPG this season, led by Anthony. Anthony is averaging 24.7 PPG this season, while shooting better than 51% from the field. F Al Harrington is earning his keeps for the Nuggets as well, as he's 2nd on the team in scoring at 16.2 PPG. Harrington is averaging 2.3 three pointers made per game this season. The Nuggets have won 2 of their 3 games outright as the listed underdog this year. The Nuggets are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games against the Central division. The Nuggets are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 road games overall. Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Nuggets are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Nuggets are 0-7-1 ATS last 8 games against the Eastern Conference.
Under is 10-3 last 13 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - C Nene (groin) is questionable.
Projected Score: 105
BULLS: (-2.5, O/U 207) Chicago is 2-3 SU to start this season, and are riding a 2 game losing streak entering tonight. The Bulls are expected to contend for a top seed this year in the Eastern Conference. Chicago isn't playing defense like they are accustomed to this year, as they have allowed at least 100 PTS in each of their losses this year. Through 5 games, the Bulls are allowing 105 PPG this year. PG Derrick Rose is again the focal point of this offense. Rose is averaging 25 PPG and nearly 10 APG for the Bulls as the unquestioned team leader. Rose is making a point to prove that he should be considered MVP of the NBA this year. The Bulls lost both games against Denver last year, so there is a revenge factor heading into this contest tonight. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%. Chicago is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning SU record. The Bulls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the Northwest division. Chicago is 26-12 ATS in their last 38 games following an ATS win.
Bulls are 12-1 ATS last 13 games following a SU loss.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games against a team with a winning percentage above .600%.
Key Injuries - F Carlos Boozer (hand) is out.
Projected Score: 109 (OVER-Total of the Day)