Monday's Best NBA Bets
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat (-6.5, 191.5)
Two of the hottest teams in the Association square off Monday night in South Beach and the Miami Heat are looking to extend their 12-game winning streak.
Miami escaped with a 95-94 over Washington on Saturday, dropping the cash as 12-point favorites.
The Heat are taking this streak seriously. Following the win over the Wizards, you would have thought they had won the title by the post-game celebration after they scored five points in the last 30 seconds of the game.
“We played a horrible basketball game, we really did,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra told reporters. “We did not come with a great focus or consistency.”
“You have to win some of these games when you play poorly. You have to find a way somehow, someway to stay in it, keep your mind in it.”
You could see a letdown coming for the Heat who played six times over nine days, but Miami bettors definitely expected better from the club against a Wizards team that was playing without John Wall and Gilbert Arenas.
Miami won’t take Dallas so lightly.
Pick: Heat
Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Clippers (-4, 211.5)
The Timberwolves have dropped five straight games, but there are a couple things to like about this club. For one thing, they have covered in three consecutive games. Plus, they also have Kevin Love dominating inside every night.
Love put up a career-high 43 points and chipped in 17 rebounds in Saturday’s 115-113 loss to the Denver Nuggets. The scary thing about the big guy is that while he dominates inside, he can also hit from outside too. Love hit all five of his trey attempts against Denver and could use a little help from the rest of his team.
"It is getting frustrating, but we stay hungry because we are young and we have veteran guys who have come from winning situations and they aren't giving up on this team," Love said. "We're trying to get better in the here and now, but we're also looking to the future, on growing together and becoming a good team."
They have a long way to go, but at least they’re staying competitive. The Timberwolves will give the Clips a run in this spot.
Pick: Timberwolves
NBA Odds: Mavericks begin road trip at Heat
By: Joe Freda
The Dallas Mavericks have a 5-4 NBA spread record in their first nine games of December. Rick Carlisle’s crew begins a three-game road trip with Monday’s duel against the Miami Heat, who are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 contests.
Dallas ended a six-game homestand with Friday’s 106-91 triumph as a 7 ½-point favorite against the Phoenix Suns. The Mavs were helped by Suns guard Steve Nash leaving the matchup early with a head injury after a collision with Dallas’ Tyson Chandler.
Chandler went on to grab a team-high 12 rebounds, while finishing with seven points. The 10-year center added three of his team’s four blocks.
Dallas’ Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry each notched a team-high 18 points. The duo united to hit 13-of-28 from the field, while Nowitzki sunk 6-of-6 at the foul line.
The lopsided affair’s combined 197 points dipped below the ‘total’ of 212, ending a 6-0 ‘over’ streak from the Mavs’ prior six games. Dallas led by as many as 24 points, while allowing Phoenix to connect on 39.3 percent of its field buckets.
The Mavericks are 8-1 ATS in their first nine road games, with the ‘over’ going 5-4. Nowitzki and Co. have put up 101.6 PPG in that stretch.
Miami escaped with its 12th straight win in Saturday’s 95-94 victory as a 12-point road favorite against the Washington Wizards. The Heat trailed by as many as 10 points, heading for a possible letdown on no rest after Friday’s 113-91 spanking of the New York Knicks on Madison Square Garden’s stage.
Heat forward LeBron James piled in a team-high 32 points against the Wizards. The two-time league MVP drained 3-of-7 from beyond the arc, while hitting 11-of-12 free throws.
James’ mates Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh finished with 20 points each, while uniting for 15 boards. Wade added two blocks, while Bosh logged a season-high seven turnovers.
The close battle’s combined 189 points ducked below the ‘total’ of 193 ½, making the ‘under’ 7-2 in Miami’s last nine games. Washington hit a lowly 2-of-9 from three-point land, while outscoring the Heat in the paint, 38-24.
Miami is 6-9 ATS in its first 15 home dates, with the ‘over’ collecting at 8-7. Erik Spoelstra’s club has allowed a stingy 91.5 PPG in that span.
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in its last six meetings against the Heat, with the ‘over’ also collecting at 4-2.
The Mavericks won a Nov. 27 battle between the foes, 106-95, as 2 ½-point home favorites, with each squad playing the second night of a back-to-back spot. Miami trailed by as many as 19 points en route to being outrebounded, 46-43.
Monday’s rematch tips at 4:30 p.m. (PT), with NBA TV providing the national television coverage.
Dallas will continue its road journey on no rest, heading north for Tuesday’s matchup against the Orlando Magic. The Heat will have two days off before the first of two road dates, visiting Phoenix as part of Thursday’s league slate.
NBA RoundUp for 12/20
by Dan Bebe
Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks with a total of N/A
This is an effort to try to choose between two teams that are supposed to be pretty darn good, but each dealing with issues. The Hawks offense seems to be stagnating, as we knew it would once the loss of Joe Johnson started to catch up with the team. But then, all of a sudden, Joe Johnson returned! And, no surprise, he was rusty, and the offense continued to sputter. Atlanta will slowly improve, as will Orlando with their crop of new (and returning) players, but chemistry cannot be overvalued, and I wonder how long it takes for the new Magic to learn the defensive schemes. Sure, Jason Richardson, Turkoglu and Arenas will find opportunities to score, but will they understand how to defend, since Orlando absolutely owned the Hawks defensively last year. Atlanta did finally get some revenge the last time these teams met, so that angle is somewhat wiped off the table, and while a forced lean would be to ORLANDO, this is a game better utilized for scouting the new personnel. In that same vein, I'd lean UNDER due to the continuity issues on offense.
New Orleans Hornets @ Indiana Pacers with a total of N/A
The Hornets seem to be turning things around a tiny bit. That second half comeback against the Kings got the offense going, at least in the short term, and we'll know more about how the Hornets handle pressure when that contest with Detroit comes to an end on Sunday night. Still, I can't help but feel like the Hornets are destined to have issues scoring, and they can come and go at almost any moment. Meanwhile, the Pacers are starting to round back into some sort of equilibrium after putting together a strong road showing a few weeks back. They lost a couple, Danny Granger missed a game, and now it seems like they're finding a middle ground. I suppose you could argue that because Indiana played earlier on Sunday, they're in slightly better shape, in terms of energy, but outside of that, I'm not sure there's a ton to go on, here. The Hornets are the team with better momentum between these two clubs, and as we know, Paul has a knack for keeping games close with non-elite teams, home or road. I'm pretty curious about the line, though I expect to see Indy as a small favorite. Tiny lean to NEW ORLEANS and the UNDER.
Utah Jazz (-8) @ Cleveland Cavaliers with a total of 196.5
Right up front, let's get this out of the way - I want no part of the side in this one. This is a truly monstrous road favorite line for any team in the NBA, and though I believe I did note back on Friday that the Cavaliers are going to be seeing some hugely inflated lines, I'm not sure I can trust them to keep up with the Jazz. They did a nice job of hanging with the Knicks, who were in a huge letdown spot off games with Boston and Miami, but Utah comes to town in the 3rd game of a 4-game roadie that leads up to Christmas, and we've seen Utah do some serious damage in road games. From a pure line value standpoint, you can probably make a case that this line is maybe a point too high, but that's not nearly enough for me, and without other angles at play, it's a spot to leave alone. Thus, PASS on the side. As far as the total goes, I'm tempted to look at the Over, since we know Cleveland tries to push the pace, and Utah tends to get good looks in the first 14 seconds of the shot clock, but both teams have actually been playing a little slower in the last week or so. Small lean to the UNDER.
Charlotte Bobcats @ Washington Wizards with a total of N/A
I don't know how Washington does it, but they keep finding ways to cover games at home, even without John Wall. Now, of course, they'll be without Arenas, who got shipped off to the Magic, and instead get the underachieving Rashard Lewis. Al Thornton can likely say goodbye to his playing time, but I suppose we'll see. In terms of non-player-related angles, Charlotte has just 3 road wins on the year, but one of those came here in Washington. I wonder if that translates to them being comfortable here, or if Washington comes out with a sense of purpose. Washington is coming off a tough 1-point loss to the Heat, so there is potential for a letdown. Charlotte got called out by its owner after a lackluster effort in Memphis, and then went on to lose the very next game in Atlanta. Half the Bobcats seem to be on the trading block, too, so I have no idea how that team is supposed to get focused on each game. I'm inclined to lean WASHINGTON, though I'm not sure I can trust them completely, and the UNDER.
Dallas Mavericks @ Miami Heat (-6) with a total of 191.5
At a quick glance, I would think a lot of people will back Dallas because of their prowess on the road, but I feel like a couple of other factors are working against them. First, this is Dallas's first road game since December 4, off a 6-game homestand. Second, Miami is starting to show signs of "taking it easy" against lesser teams, and stepping up against the big name teams. That tells me they're confident, and starting to trust that they can win games when they need to. Third, this is a revenge game, as Dallas beat Miami by 11 down in Big-D on November 27th. Dallas is a solid team, and we know Charles Barkley loves them. Dirk Nowitzki is having a downright unreal year, but LeBron and D-Wade are putting the pieces together, and to me, this line is about where it should be. And yes, that loss in Dallas was the last loss the Heat suffered before deciding to win every game from that point forward. Dallas, by the way, has not been playing the world's finest defense the last few games, and that is a point of concern. Lean to MIAMI and the OVER, by about 2 points.
Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs with a total of N/A
The Suns got some fresh blood, and I happen to think they got a lot better with the trade. In fact, it might have helped both teams. The Suns got a fully competent defensive center in Marcin Gortat, and added some athletes in Vince Carter and Mikael Pietrus. Pietrus feels like just the type of guy that Steve Nash can turn into a superstar, but time will tell. Phoenix isn't going to turn these guys into a championship roster, but they'll score more, that's for darn sure. The Spurs just keep beating teams, sometimes on buzzer-beaters, sometimes in overtime, sometimes just the old-fashioned regulation win, sealed up a few minutes earlier. They haven't been covering machines lately, but I don't think I can bet against San Antonio here, when there are so many question marks on the Phoenix side. This is, however, a revenge game for the Suns, so a few key angles are butting heads once again. Really, the smart play would be to see how Phoenix's new guys gel before betting, or if they're even on the floor (since word has it the new guys won't arrive before Thursday), but if I had to take a shot, I'd lean to the UNDER due to new bodies learning the offense, and a gun-to-head lean on SPURS.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Trailblazers with a total of N/A
Revenge and injury, the fun combo that we have to sort through in this contest. Portland is likely without Brandon Roy, and Milwaukee is likely without Brandon Jennings -- not a good first name to have, I guess. Portland also spanked the crap out of Milwaukee in Wisconsin back in early November, 90-76. The Bucks have come a long way since then, and Portland has, arguably, gotten far worse. The Blazers do seem to find ways to win games at home, but I'm working on the assumption that Portland is going to be laying a solid 5-6 points (time will tell), and they haven't won too many games by more than a handful lately. Aldridge has turned his game up, but it almost seems like, with Portland, either the offense is working or the defense is working, and rarely in tandem. The Bucks are a tough competitor, but without their engine, I can't see them having much success on the offensive end. Tiny lean to MILWAUKEE, but a bigger lean to the UNDER...unless the line is crazy-low, which it very well could be.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers (-4) with a total of 211.5
Both teams are in sort of "odd" scheduling spots, so, for me, this match-up is about finding the small disparities. Minnesota is finishing up a 6-game road trip, and though they've lost the previous 5 games, they have covered the last 3. They still don't play a lick of defense, but they had no trouble scoring in any of those 3 games. They also got behind by 20 in Denver before going on an extended run that cut the Nuggets lead under a bucket before finally falling. Minnesota is certainly in a tough spot, finishing up on the west coast after bouncing all over the place, and even though they're playing well, I have to believe that pathetic defensive effort eventually burns them. The Clippers return home off a 3-game Midwest road trip that saw LA shoot the lights out in the final 2 games. So, while this is traditionally a sluggish spot, I can't help but wonder if the Clippers are just brimming with confidence. Covering 4 isn't usually a problem if you're winning, but will Kevin Love explode coming back to LA? Can anyone keep him off the glass? If LA can limit the Wolves to one shot per possession most of the time, they'll take care of business. If you believe Minnesota racks up 15-20 offensive boards, this one comes down to the wire. Slight lean to CLIPPERS and the UNDER.
Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors with a total of N/A
Houston seems to be improving by the day, and the Warriors, well, I'm not so sure. Golden State has had a pretty darn tough schedule the last few weeks, which certainly isn't helping that 4-15 SU disaster. Biedrins remains hurt, so David Lee, still injured, is set to play center again, and Steph Curry seems unlikely to return. I know Monta Ellis is a one-man wrecking crew, and I know Houston hasn't been that impressive on back-to-back spots, but they're a team on the upswing right now, and the Warriors are a team that desperately needs health. Houston got Aaron Brooks back in their last game, too, so suddenly the Rockets are very deep at PG, and the Warriors don't really have any. We should get an interesting line, given Houston's b2b spot, and until the Warriors beat a team better than the Wolves (2 of those 4 wins in the last 19 games are against Minnesota), I don't think I can trust Golden State to get the job done. Lean to HOUSTON and the UNDER.
Tips and Trends
Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat
MAVERICKS: Dallas has the 3rd best record in the NBA at 21-5 SU. The Mavericks appear to be one of the elite teams in the NBA, as they continue to win with their defense. The Mavericks are allowing just 93.2 PPG this season, the 5th fewest in the NBA. C Tyson Chandler and F Caron Butler have really brought the defensive toughness and intensity to the rest of their teammates. Dallas is 8-1 both SU and ATS on the road this year. The Mavericks are a perfect 7-0 ATS as the listed underdog this season. F Dirk Nowitzki is the biggest offensive force for Dallas, as he's averaging 24.8 PPG while shooting better than 55% from the field. G Jason Terry is 2nd on the team in scoring, averaging 15.9 PPG this year. The Mavericks are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games against a team with a winning SU record. Dallas is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the NBA Southeast. The Mavericks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. The Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a SU win. Dallas is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win. The Mavericks are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 2 days rest.
Mavericks are 6-0 ATS last 6 road games against a team with a home winning percentage greater than .600%.
Under is 7-2 last 9 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Key Injuries - None Reported
Projected Score: 91
HEAT: (-6.5, O/U 191.5) Miami has hit their stride, as they have won 12 consecutive games SU. The Heat are 21-8 SU and 14-15 ATS overall this season. While just 14-15 ATS, Miami has won 8 of their past 10 games ATS. Miami has been playing amazing defense this year, allowing opponents to average just 91.2 PPG, tied for the NBA fewest. Miami is 12-3 SU at home this year, and they would like nothing more than to exact some revenge against the Mavericks for their double digit loss earlier this year. F LeBron James is averaging a team high 24.5 PPG and 7.2 APG, along with 6.4 RPG this year. F Chris Bosh is averaging more than 18 PPG this year, while shooting better than 50% from the field. The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against a team with a winning SU record. Miami is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win. Miami is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games. The Heat are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 Monday games.
Heat are 4-0 ATS last 4 games against the Western Conference.
Under is 6-2 last 8 home games.Key Injuries - F Mike Miller (thumb) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 92 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
NBA Betting Preview: Milwaukee Bucks at Portland Trail Blazers
By Jeff Mattingly
Milwaukee is last in the NBA in scoring and it’s likely not going to improve with starting point guard Brandon Jennings expected to miss his first career start. The Bucks are averaging 91.6 points per game overall this season, but just 89.1 against Western Conference opponents, leading to a 3-10 record against them. Tonight’s will also be the opener of the team’s league-high 23 back-to-backs this season. Milwaukee has posted a 2-4 record in the first game and 4-2 mark in the second game thus far during the 2010-11 campaign. The squad is 10-14 ATS on the season and 0-6 ATS versus Northwest Division opponents.
The Bucks have held their last seven opponents under 100 points and have gone 4-3 in that span. Six of those seven foes were held under their season average in scoring going into the game. Milwaukee is sixth in the league by holding 19 of its opponents under 100 points, which is 76 percent of its games compared to 57.3 last year. The team is 1-2 in a stretch of playing five of six contests away from home. Over the last seven games, the Bucks’ bench has garnered a 214-177 scoring advantage over opponents.
Portland is looking to win its third consecutive game and is likely to have a make-shift starting lineup in tonight’s contest. All-Star guard Brandon Roy is likely to miss a third straight contest with knee problems, while Nicolas Batum, Marcus Camby and Joel Przybilla are all questionable. The Blazers still managed to capture a 96-95 win over Golden State despite all the injuries. “Being short-handed, it was tough,” said Dante Cunningham. “We definitely needed everybody.” The team is 9-3 at home this season and is an undefeated 5-0 in December, winning those games by an average of 7.2 points. Portland is 12-13 ATS on the season.
The Blazers split the two games against the Bucks last season, with each team winning at home. Portland has won seven of the past eight meetings and has won four straight contests at the Rose Garden in the series. In order to pick up another victory tonight, the team is likely to lean heavily on its defensive unit, allowing 89.9 points per game in wins this season. Early in the season, Portland is 3-0 versus Eastern Conference opponents at home this season, holding them to 32.1 percent shooting from the 3-point area.
Bettors may elect to lay the Bucks due to their 3-9-1 ATS mark versus the Western Conference, while the Blazers are 3-8 ATS on Mondays.