Monday's Best NBA Bet
Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons (4.5, 184.5)
The Hawks need to find a way to score points. Atlanta is among the better defensive teams in the league, but is among the worst at scoring the basketball.
The squad is 22nd in the Association in points scored (96.9 ppg) and 17th in 3-point percentage (35.1). And it’s not like the team has played any better against the Pistons. Atlanta averages a mere 87 points per game in two meetings with Detroit this season and has failed to crack 94 points in either game.
Forward Al Horford’s recent spate of injuries hasn’t helped things either. The best big man on the team, Horford is battling back problems that have forced him to miss time because his 6-foot-10, 245-pound frame is built to play power forward, not center.
In Saturday’s two-point loss to Charlotte he returned to the lineup and netted 16 points, but failed to even attempt a free throw as he attempted 15 field goals.
“If Coach (Larry) Drew needs to shake something up to make us better, I’m for it, and I hope everybody on this team is for it and understands it,” Horford said.
On the other bench, the Pistons have been playing better lately. Detroit is 3-2 SU and ATS its past five games and has held five of its past six opponents to 100 or fewer points over that stretch.
Pick: Pistons
Spurs next up for Nets on NBA odds slate
By: David Schwab
The San Antonio Spurs can see the light at the end of the tunnel with their eighth of a nine-game road trip moving to Newark's Prudential Center to take on the New Jersey Nets this Monday night. The tip for this one is scheduled for 4 p.m. (PT) and the game will be broadcast nationally on NBA TV.
San Antonio continues to set the pace in the NBA this season with 16 victories in its last 19 games. The Spurs have run their league-best record to 45-9 straight-up (33-19-2 against the spread) and have a seven-game lead over Dallas in the Southwest Division and a seven-game lead over the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference race.
Saturday night they scored 72 points in the first half on their way to a 118-94 romp over Washington as a 6½-point road favorite after being held to a season-low 71 points in a 77-71 loss to Philadelphia as a three-point road favorite this past Friday.
Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker have provided the bulk of the scoring for San Antonio this year. Both are averaging over 17 points a game and Parker leads the team in assists with 6.7. Tim Duncan continues to be a force underneath the boards with 9.2 rebounds a game and is third on the team in scoring with 13.4 points. Richard Jefferson rounds out the starting lineup with 12.1 points and 4.1 rebounds a game, while George Hill is adding 11.1 points off the bench.
The Spurs are ranked sixth in the league in scoring with an average of 103.6 points a game. They are holding their opponents to just 96.3 points giving them the second highest scoring differential in the NBA. San Antonio is shooting 47.3 percent from the floor and just under 40 percent from three-point range. Defensively it is averaging 42.7 rebounds a game which is eighth-best in the league.
The only excitement in Newark this season was when New Jersey believed it had put a deal together to land Carmelo Anthony from Denver. The deal never materialized and the team’s on-court activity has remained mediocre at best. The Nets have won just two of their last six games and are 17-38 SU overall (26-29 ATS). Their aspirations of making the postseason have been just about exhausted as they currently sit in 12th-place in the East.
Center Brook Lopez leads New Jersey in points per game with 19.6 and rebounds with 5.7. He is joined by Devin Harris, who leads the team in assists with 7.7 a game and is the second leading scorer with 15.1 points and Anthony Morrow, who is averaging 12.6 points to form the basic talent pool of this team. Sasha Vujacic, who was acquired from the Lakers earlier in the season, has also chipped-in with 11.4 points a game.
The Nets are second-to-last in the NBA in scoring with an average of just 92.8 points a game. They are giving up an average of 98.6 points a game which amounts to one of the worst scoring differentials in the league. New Jersey is ranked 28th in shooting with a field goal percentage of 44.1 percent. It is hitting 35 percent of its attempts from three-point range and 76.3 percent of them from the foul-line.
San Antonio is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games on the road and 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in four of its last five games.
New Jersey is 3-3 ATS in its last six home games and 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in four of its last five games.
Head-to-head, the Spurs have won nine of the last 10 games SU, but the Nets are 3-1 ATS in the last four. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of the last seven meetings.
Last season New Jersey came away with a 90-84 victory as a seven-point home underdog and the total stayed ‘under’ the 189 point line. This time around the opening line should be pretty much the same but the results will not. The Spurs learned their lesson from their trip here last year, and will find a way to put this game away early to easily win and cover.
NBA RoundUp for 2/14
by Dan Bebe
San Antonio Spurs (-8.5) @ New Jersey Nets with a total of 191
We'll keep this one simple -- this line is definitely inflated, but if any team can handle the b.s., it's San Antonio. The Spurs are simply a team on a mission, and every time I think it's too late to back them, or the right time to fade away, I get a swift kick to the groin-style reminder than there might not be a time that it's too late. This is game 8 of the Spurs monster Rodeo Road Trip, and after showing some signs of fatigue in Philadelphia, they came storming back with a beatdown in Washington. I guess they're not tired. PASS on the side, and the total posted total makes me think we'll get a Jersey tempo - lean UNDER.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Charlotte Bobcats with a total of N/A
Interestingly, some outlets are showing this game with the Lakers as a 5-point road favorite, but I think it's officially "down" right now. Regardless, the Lakers play their 4th in 5 nights against a Bobcats team that usually gives LA a pretty good fight. I realize the history isn't much, but Charlotte has covered 5 of the 6 meetings between these teams over the last handful of years, including a clubbing of LA last season in Charlotte. Can the Lakers get their energy back up after apparently running out of gas in the second half down in Orlando? Maybe. They have appeared to be on a mission, but heading into the All Star Break, this wouldn't be all that uncommon a spot for some of LA's veterans to put it in cruise control. Lean to the BOBCATS and the UNDER.
Atlanta Hawks (-3.5) @ Detroit Pistons with a total of 184.5
Detroit beat the piss out of the Hawks the last time they visited Motown, which begs the question of why Atlanta is sitting at exactly the same line this time around. The Hawks aren't exactly playing good basketball, blowing a big early lead to the Bobcats in their last game, and losing 2 straight. On top of that, they play 2 road games before the Break, and then recommence with 5 more road games, so the Hawks aren't coming home for a while. Will the road trip galvanize them like it has seemed to do for the Lakers? Something tells me Atlanta would still prefer to be at home. I admit, I don't much like that Detroit is playing a back-to-back, a spot where I'd rather not back them, but I could certainly see Atlanta roll into town and get spanked again. Add it all up, very small lean to DETROIT, and the UNDER.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Milwaukee Bucks (-5) with a total of 190
The Clippers are spiraling on this road trip, and after getting out to a half-decent start (at least ATS-wise), the Clippers have lost to Cleveland and Toronto, and the need for Eric Gordon, a proven scorer, is being exposed. Now, onto Milwaukee to face the defense-first Bucks, and on the second half of a back-to-back. This line is probably about where it should be - I can see Milwaukee taking care of business, because, simply put, they need it more. The Clippers have been on the road for quite some time already, and they're not but half-way through the 11-game marathon trip, looking forward to the All Star Break. The Bucks are still struggling to score, but the Clippers play next to no defense on the road, and right now, they're a 1-man gang away from home. Slight lean to BUCKS and the UNDER.
Portland Trailblazers (-3) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 201.5
Portland has won all 3 games in this series to this point, and all 3 games have gone Over the total. Something's gotta give, doesn't it? Between those 2 plays, though, I'd have far more faith in the Under. Portland is a post-entry team, for the most part, and while Aldridge has been shooting the lights out, if he even settles back near 50%, it's a tempo that isn't conducive to running and gunning. Yes, Portland has been playing some higher scoring games, but looking at yesterday's contest with Detroit, the teams combined for a ridiculous 61 points in the 4th quarter. That game should have stayed under 200. But that's neither here nor there. More importantly, the 3 games between Portland and Minnesota this year have hit 209, 206 and 215, going Over the posted totals each time, despite each posted mark hovering right near 200, just like this one. And in each of those games, an anomaly presented itself. The teams combined for at least 30 offensive rebounds in all 3 games, and in the most recent tilt, the teams combined to shoot 70 free throws. Both of those numbers come down in this slightly fatigued spot for Portland, and revenge spot for Minny. Lean to WOLVES and more strongly to the UNDER.
Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets (-2.5) with a total of 222
This game strikes me as a potential revenge spot for Denver, a team that just lost to Houston at the very difficult-to-win Pepsi Center. It might not be, though, given Denver won the first 2 meetings this year, one at each venue. Maybe more interesting than the revenge angle is that these teams have met 3 times already, and the totals have reached 201, 219 and 211, and yet this total comes out higher than any of those 3 games. Maybe that's because, despite the 200+ points scored in the previous games, neither team has really played all that well, offensively. Neither club has eclipsed 47% shooting in any game, and we've had a 20-turnover effort from Denver mixed in. Yes, there have been quite a few free throws in this series, but that would seem to be the norm. Clearing 222 isn't going to be easy, but something tells me this one gets there. Lean to DENVER in a shootout that goes OVER.