Monday's NBA Tips
By Brian Edwards
Bettors have a five-game NBA slate to work with Monday. Let’s take an in-depth look at both games out West and then touch on the others in Bonus Nuggets.
**Hawks at Jazz**
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Utah (35-19 straight up, 33-18-3 against the spread) as a 5 ½-point favorite with a total of 199 ½.
Atlanta (34-19 SU, 33-20 ATS) started the week in Tinseltown, stroking the Clippers 1110-92 as a seven-point road favorite. Al Horford was the catalyst in 33 minutes on the court, scoring 31 points to go with six rebounds, four assists, three steals and just one turnover. The two-time national-title winner at the University of Florida, who earned his first All-Star Game invite this year, made 12-of-15 shots from the field and 7-of-9 at the charity stripe.
Mike Woodson’s team couldn’t follow up on its win at Staples Center, losing 88-80 Friday night at Phoenix. The Suns took the cash as four-point home favorites. Josh Smith had a team-high 21 points and four blocked shots in the losing effort.
Since Jan. 9, Jerry Sloan’s squad has been on fire with 16 wins in its last 18 games. During this surge (and beyond by two games), the Jazz have hooked up their backers at a 15-2-3 ATS clip.
Utah returns home in this spot after a four-game road trip that started after the All-Star break. The Jazz won at Houston and New Orleans before capturing Friday’s 100-89 victory at Golden St. as a five-point road ‘chalk.’ Carlos Boozer dominated the Warriors with 30 points and 16 rebounds.
As usual, Utah has been outstanding at home, compiling a 22-7 SU record to go with a 18-9-2 ATS ledger. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 13-13 SU and 15-11 ATS on the road.
Both teams are in back-to-back spots here after playing Sunday night. The Hawks are 6-7 ATS in such situations, while the Jazz are 7-3-1 ATS.
The ‘under’ has cashed in four consecutive Utah games. However, the Jazz have watched the ‘over’ go 29-24-1 overall, 16-13 in its home games.
The ‘over’ is 29-23-1 overall for the Hawks, but the ‘under’ is 13-12-1 in their road assignments.
Tip-off is scheduled for 9:05 p.m. Eastern.
**Bobcats at Clippers**
LVSC opened Charlotte (27-27 SU, 30-24 ATS) as a four-point favorite with a total of 191 ½.
Los Angeles (22-33 SU, 25-29-1 ATS) had not only lost its first five games under new interim head coach Kim Hughes, but it lost all five by double-digit margins. Until Saturday night, that is, when the Clippers pounded Sacramento by a 99-89 count as 1 ½-point home underdogs. Eric Gordon scored a game-high 30 points and dished out six assists, while Chris Kaman had a double-double with 22 points and 16 rebounds. In his second game as a Clipper, Steve Blake had 11 points and 12 assists.
Blake, along with Travis Outlaw, was acquired from Portland in exchange for Marcus Camby. The Clippers also dealt away Al Thornton and Sebastian Telfair and got Drew Gooden in return. Gooden, who was averaging 8.9 points and 6.9 rebounds in 46 games with Dallas, is expected to make his L.A. debut against Charlotte.
L.A. guard Baron Davis (back injury) has missed two straight games and is “questionable” in this spot. Davis averages 15.6 points and 7.8 assists per game.
Larry Brown’s team is trying to make the playoffs for the first time in the franchise’s six-year history. The Bobcats are currently holding the East’s eighth and final playoff spot thanks to a stellar home record. They have been abysmal on the road, losing 20 of 27 games, but that hasn’t had a negative impact on their backers. In fact, Charlotte is a profitable 15-12 ATS on the road.
Charlotte is coming off Saturday’s 93-88 loss at Milwaukee as a three-point underdog. Stephen Jackson was sensational in defeat, tallying 35 points, five rebounds and five assists.
L.A. has a 15-12 SU record and a 13-13-1 ATS mark at home this season.
The ‘under’ is 29-26 overall for the Clippers, 18-9 in their home games.
The ‘over’ is 32-22 overall for the Bobcats, 16-11 in their road assignments.
Tip-off is slated for 10:35 p.m. ET.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
If you had any action on the Miami-Memphis game Friday night, it will have to go down as one of those ‘all-timers’ you’ll never forget about. And I’m talking about every type of wager you can fathom had a wild result in this contest. For starters, Dwyane Wade was “doubtful” but with the way NBA injuries go, gamblers weren’t 100-percent certain the perennial All-Star wouldn’t play. As tip-time approached, most books had the Grizzlies favored by 6 ½ with a total of 189. The Heat were at around plus-220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220). Miami raced out to a 46-31 lead at intermission, prompting betting shops to make Memphis a seven-point favorite for second-half wagers. The Grizzlies were tempting in that scenario, catching eight points (down 15, minus seven) when initially favored by 6 ½ for 14 ½ points of line value from the original number. Well, Memphis backers for second-half wagers were looking great, as the Grizzlies made a quick third-quarter run to get back in the game. They ended up forcing overtime, making gamblers with Miami money-line bets start to sweat missing out on a plus-220 payout. Bettors on the ‘under,’ who had been comfortable all night, had to get anxious all of a sudden as well. Then the game went into double overtime, with Miami eventually winning by a 100-87 count. Therefore, those ‘under’ backers (189) deservedly cashed tickets, but not without anxious moments galore. As for those on the Heat for the generous money-line return, they also came away smiling. However, those taking Memphis in the second half suffered a tough beat. Without a doubt, this wild double-OT affair demonstrated why we call it gambling – in more ways than one.
Washington will play host to Chicago on NBA-TV at 7:05 p.m. Eastern. LVSC opened the Bulls as three-point road favorites. As of Sunday night, most books had adjusted Vinny Del Negro’s team to a two-point ‘chalk.’ Chicago has won four in a row and six of its last seven both SU and ATS.
Most spots had Dallas listed as a 9 ½-point home favorite for its home game against the Pacers. This contest will come off the board at 8:35 p.m. ET. Remember, the Mavs are an atrocious 1-19 ATS in their 20 games as home favorites.
Sunday’s Best Bet: Memphis went to intermission trailing the Nets by 11, prompting oddsmakers to make the Grizzlies six-point favorites for halftime wagers. That equated to Memphis being a five-point underdog instead of a six-point favorite (the original line). That’s 11 points of line value but most importantly, you’re in a situation of catching points against a 5-win team 56 games into the season. The Grizzlies predictably rallied to win at New Jersey by a 104-94 score.
vegasinsider.com.
Game of the day: Atlanta Hawks at Utah Jazz
By Nick Parsons.
Led by high-scoring Joe Johnson and the emergence of Al Horford, who scored a career-high 31 points last week, the Atlanta Hawks are currently fourth in the Eastern Conference and on the heels of division-leading Orlando.
The Utah Jazz are sizzling. Heading into Sunday night's game Utah had won 12 of 13 and continued its climb up the Western Conference standings. The Jazz are suddenly a threat to catch Denver for the division title after spending a good part of the season outside the playoff picture.
Trouble Brewing?
When the Jazz traded starting swingman Ronny Brewer to Memphis for a first-round draft pick last week they lost their leader in steals and minutes played. All-Star point guard Deron Williams, who is good friends with Brewer, was not happy with the move.
"You look at all the teams that are getting better around the West and we essentially got worse, if you ask me," Williams told NBA.com.
Brewer athleticism on the wing will be tough to be replaced but Jazz fans can’t forget how his poor shooting haunted the team in last year's playoffs.
Andrei Kirilenko has been the biggest beneficiary of the trade. The inconsistent forward is starting and playing with the same type of confidence he had when he first entered the league.
Jazz coach Jerry Sloan credited Kirilenko, who scored 22 points on Friday, as one of the biggest reasons the Jazz had won 16 of their last 18 games heading into Sunday.
"His play has been terrific," Sloan told Deseret News. "There's not any question about that. He's played more like Andrei played his first year or so with us."
No rest for the weary
This is the third road game in the last four nights for the Hawks. On Friday, Atlanta coach Mike Woodson admitted he made a mistake by playing only six players the entire second half in a loss at Phoenix.
“I did something last night I haven’t done all year in terms of playing six guys,” he said. “I really thought we could beat those guys like that but it backfired on me because their second unit beat us.”
The Suns’ reserves took it to the Hawks in the fourth quarter. The Hawks’ backups - other than sixth man Jamal Crawford - watched the entire second half from the bench.
Despite going with the starters plus Crawford for those 24 minutes, the Hawks managed just 30 points, missed 20 of 33 shots and were beaten 27-17 on the boards.
Did the starters get fatigued?
“I’m not sure,” Josh Smith said. “Normally we don’t get tired. We practice well with our conditioning. We just got outplayed, bottom line.”
The game was tied at 70-70 early in the fourth quarter before the collapse.
Last meeting
These two teams have met once this season with the Hawks claiming a 96-83 win at Atlanta. The Hawks covered as 6-point favorites and the final score was well under the 207 over/under line.
Brewer didn't play well in the game, netting just four points, and Utah lost the game after committing 23 turnovers. The Hawks broke the game open outscoring the Jazz 37-17 in the third quarter.
Straight-shooter
Atlanta is ranked fourth in the East in shooting percentage at 47.2 but has struggled shooting it lately.
It entered Sunday's game just hitting just 7 of 40 from three-point range in its last three games and when it hasn't shot 40 percent from the field as of late, it has lost.
Diaper Dandy
Utah's Mehmet Okur missed Sunday's game after the birth of his son Friday. He is uncertain for Monday.
The Hawks are still hoping to land Zydrunas Ilgauskas if he succeeds in getting a buyout from the Wizards. Atlanta is worried about a lack of playoff experience on its roster.
The Hawks are relatively healthy after getting back Crawford and Zaza Pachulia from pre-All-Star Game injuries.
Trend setting
The under is 6-0 in last six meetings at Utah and 4-0 overall.
The favorite is 13-3 ATS in last 16 games in this series.
The Jazz have also been very good when playing back-to-back nights. They are 5-1-1 ATS without a day’s rest.
The Jazz are 13-3-1 ATS in last 17 games against Eastern Conference teams and 24-8 ATS.
The Hawks are 0-4 ATS playing without a day’s rest.
NBA RoundUp For 2/22
By Dan Bebe
Bulls @ Wizards - Chicago by 2 with a total of 199.5. Woah, wait just a darn minute. Either Chicago is still getting no respect, or Washington is suddenly relevant overnight. I'm looking very hard at this game to try to find a reason why Washington is only getting 2 points, and I'm just not sure I can figure it out. Sure, the Wizards have covered 5 in a row, and fairly quietly, might I add, considering they're doing it with all sorts of odd pieces wedged together to form a team, but they're still a club that's just not going to get any love from the public. The Bulls have covered 4 straight and 6 of 7, and they are truly playing some outstanding basketball. They've been playing lights-out defense, but also finding a way to score, and really impressing me in the process. So, why is Washington such a small home dog? These teams played on the 15th of January, and Chicago barely squeezed by the Wizards with a 121-119 home win (there were some overtimes there, mind you). I suppose there's some revenge there for the Wizards, but most of these guys didn't even log minutes for Washington in that game. I just can't quite put the pieces together on this side. Chicago isn't in a look-ahead spot or letdown, as they're coming off an easy home win over Philadelphia, and host Indiana at home on Wednesday. They've been clicking on offense, and have improved their defense to rest now among the League's top few teams (in terms of opponents FG%). I am truly, desperately, trying to find a reason why Washington seems to be getting so few points, and I'm struggling. I don't have a real lean on the side as a result, though I like how Derrick Rose is pushing the ball a bit more, and think we might get a little edge with the Over.
Bucks @ Knicks - New York by 1 with a total of 206.5. Milwaukee has been eating New York alive this year. They beat the Knicks by 15 at home, and by 7 on a road. So, the question is, is this a double-revenge spot or is this a situation where the Bucks just dominate New York? I have to admit, I've fallen into traps here in both directions, so it's extremely important to analyze the line and figure out if we're getting value by betting New York, due to their desire to man up and take it to Milwaukee, or if the line has been preadjusted, and the value is with the Bucks, since maybe they shouldn't be getting a point against a team they've bopped twice already this year. The most recent meeting was only a couple weeks ago, a game that Milwaukee put up 114 points in a victory, and sent the total over the mark by 20 points. This line has been adjusted, to a certain degree, so I'm not sure we're getting any special information on the total from the oddsmakers. I'm a little concerned that the Knicks have a game in Boston tomorrow, and might be thinking about taking down one of the East's elite, and as a result, I would tread very cautiously with this one. Considering New York has only won 1 game straight up since January 28, it's interesting to see them favored by a point against a team that has clocked them twice, but here we are. I have a slight lean to Milwaukee to continue their surge, and I think the Knicks miserable defense continues to be front and center; slight lean to the Over.
Pacers @ Mavericks - Dallas by 9.5 with a total of 207. Alright Dallas, who are you, exactly, with your new players? Are you the team that got creamed in Oklahoma City? Are you the team that won (and covered) against Phoenix and on the road in Orlando? Are you the team that wins at home, but doesn't cover, like that game with Miami? I really would like to know. Are you a team that is going to be looking ahead to Wednesday, when the Lakers come to town? There are an absolute ton of questions on the Dallas side, and truthfully, not that many about the Pacers. Indiana is just not a good team, but they have a knack for getting hot for 2-3 games, then, like herpes, they go into remission. It seems like, if indeed the Pacers are warming up, they might make life tough for Dallas. Indiana has had a way of disappointing this season, but as this large of an underdog, they merely have to compete to cover. Dallas has not shown any sort of killer instinct all season long, and a few stats to back that might be: 6-20 ATS at home, 0-5 ATS as a home favorite of 9.5-to-12 points, and 8-13 ATS against losing teams. I like how Dallas is starting to play some defense again with Haywood in the paint, but I still don't trust this team to cover large spreads, especially against a team that can get hot, and could essentially lead this game into the 4th. I lean Indiana, and I lean Under.
Hawks @ Jazz - Utah by 6 with a total of 198. Well, this one has the makings of a very strange game. The Jazz, instead of the Hawks, are the team coming off the ultra-late game on the West coast, and the Hawks are the club coming into the altitude off a disappointing loss in Golden State. Atlanta led that game by 18 at one point before Stephen Curry led a monster Warrior surge, and helped Golden State pick up a rare win with an incredible 4th quarter. The Hawks-Warriors game, though, was at 5pm pacific time, so they didn't get into Utah's altitude as late as most teams do, coming from the West, and I'm not sure if they're a nearly automatic fade like most clubs. They are also coming off that loss, so we have to try to read public opinion on this team to see if public bettors expect the Hawks to bounce back or continue to tumble for one more night. The Jazz are coming off a ridiculously ugly game with Portland, both teams shooting under 40% for the bulk of the night, and fighting their asses off to come back from a 25-point deficit, force OT, and result be damned, completely exhaust themselves. As a result, can we really expect Utah to come out with that same home intensity as usual in the 3rd quarter? I'm not sure we can. This is a very tough spot to back either team, and while the altitude issue makes me want to play the Jazz, Utah's own fatigue makes me want nothing to do with it. I believe an early play on the Hawks could set up a middle, just based on energy alone, and I honestly have no idea what to do with the total. Neither team is going to play much defense as tired as they are, but will they make any jump-shots with those gelatin legs? I suppose I expect this one to creep Over the total, but not by much.
Bobcats @ Clippers - This line is OFF. Will the Clippers ever actually try hard again? Sure, this team got a win over the Kings at home in their last game, but that was coming off 6 straight blowout losses. Yes, there are some new pieces, as the Clippers went on a bit of a firesale of any contract they could unload, so it's going to take time for these pieces to learn how to play together, but man if it doesn't make me ill just thinking about trying to back them. I know from a line value perspective, the Clippers have a ton, but they're simply so bad, that I'm not sure it matters. Charlotte has covered the last 5 games they've played against the Clippers at Staples (a stadium where this team is clearly pretty comfortable), and if indeed Baron Davis is out again, where are the Clippers going to get their offense? They were able to put up 99 points against the Kings because Sacramento plays about as much defense as an intramural squad, but the Bobcats are solid on D. They lost on a back-to-back in Milwaukee, which I believe creates just a hair of additional value on them, or maybe the more accurate statement is that it diminishes the line value the Clips have, courtesy of their awful play. I guess what I'm saying is that the Baron Davis injury situation does indeed play a role in my leans on this game. If he stays out, which I think he might, given how little the Clippers have to play for, I lean Charlotte, and I like the Under, though oddsmakers might bring this line out very low, so let's temper our expectations there.
Trend Report - Monday
By Ed Meyer
Bobcats at Clippers – The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS (4.8 ppg) since December 06, 2004 on the road versus the Clippers. The Clippers are 0-10 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since February 11, 1997 after a double digit win in which they had more turnovers than assists.
Hawks at Jazz – The League is 0-8 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since November 19, 2008 at home with at most one day of rest after a road win in which they had at least 10 shots blocked. The Jazz are 8-0-1 ATS (10.9 ppg) since February 02, 2009 when their opponent is playing in at least their fourth straight road game.
Bucks at Knicks – The Bucks are 8-0 ATS (3.8 ppg) since November 07, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Bucks are 6-0 ATS (6.2 ppg) since January 17, 2003 on the road with at least one day of rest off a win in which their leading scorer for that game had fewer than 20 points. The Knicks are 8-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since January 19, 2008 when seeking revenge for a home loss in which they led at the half. The League is 8-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since January 11, 2009 with at most one day of rest off an overtime home loss in which they held a double digit lead.
Pacers at Mavericks – The Pacers are 9-0-1 ATS (7.8 ppg) since February 04, 1998 after a double digit road win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The Mavericks are 0-10 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since February 10, 2008 after a game at home in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average.
Bulls at Wizards – The Bulls are 8-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since November 18, 2008 after a double digit win in which they allowed less than 40% from the field. The Wizards are 0-9 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since January 07, 2009 at home with at most one day of rest after a game in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
NBA heats up Monday
By Sportsbook.com
Monday Means all Systems Go in NBA
The Utah Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA, winners of 13 of 14 (11-2-1 ATS) and last four in a row, all on the road. They return home against Atlanta who is wrapping up its four game road trip, who has the edge? For the answer to this and other NBA betting edges, read on about today’s top system plays in professional hoops. Get the latest prices on all of Monday’s five games on the LIVE ODDS page of Sportsbook.com.
Chicago (-3, 201) at Washington
Even with an eye on next season already, Chicago Bulls’ players are focused on the present. The Bulls front office has made trades freeing cap space to go after at least one of the enticing free agents in the market place after the season, however the current collection of players have covered seven of eight and five in a row. For tonight’s matchup, the total draws the most attention since road teams with a total of 200 or higher, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more, against opponent after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points, are 32-10 OVER since 1996.
Milwaukee (+1.5, 206.5) at New York
The New York Knicks have lost six straight and almost won as Tracy McGrady made his debut in the Knicks uniform, falling 121-118 to Oklahoma City Saturday night. Having lost three of four at home to Milwaukee, tonight’s situation does not set up much better as teams revenging a straight up loss vs. opponent as a home favorite, off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, are 43-70 ATS since 2004-05, including all six this year.
Indiana (+9, 208.5) at Dallas
The Dallas Mavericks have a run of the mill home record at 17-9; however they are positively disgusting or delightful, depending on what side you wager on them, with a league worst 6-20 ATS home record. Everything doesn’t figure to improve immediately, since home teams playing their fifth game in a week, with a win percent of 60 to 75 percent, playing a team with a losing record, are 20-55 the last 12 years.
Atlanta (+5, 196) at Utah
Both teams are playing their third game in four days, with one obvious distinction; Atlanta has lost their last two, while Utah has won not only previous two, but four in a row. That in theory at least gives the Jazz the edge as home teams covering the spread in four or more consecutive games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 31-7 ATS. Head over to Sportsbook.com for all of your NBA action.