Monday's Best NBA Bet
Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies (3.5, 195)
No team in the league dominates the offensive paint like the Grizzlies. Memphis averages an NBA-best 49.8 points per game in the paint this season. But with the stellar play of forward Zach Randolph, it’s surprising those numbers aren't actually higher.
Randolph was named the Western Conference Player of the Month for January for keeping his team in the playoff hunt despite a suspension to guard O.J. Mayo. Without Mayo, the team has relied on its low-post attack and Z-Bo has delivered.
The former Michigan State star is averaging 20.3 points and 13.3 rebounds per game.
"It's definitely an honor for me," Randolph said. "It's my first time to win Player of the Month. Individual awards are great, but my focus is on leading this team to the playoffs. I'm glad were having success as a team, and hopefully we keep our momentum going."
Memphis split its two games against the Lakers this season, but Randolph missed the first. In the second, a 98-96 Grizzlies win, Randolph had 13 points, eight rebounds and four assists. Overall, the Lakers have a very mediocre post defense, giving up more than 40 points per game in the paint.
Look for Randolph to continue to take advantage.
Pick: Grizzlies
Trail Blazers test Bulls' Monday NBA odds streak
By: Adam Markowitz
The Chicago Bulls have gone 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine NBA betting battles played on Monday. That's a streak that they'll put on the line this week at Portland's Rose Garden where they will crack skulls with the Trail Blazers.
Tip-off is slated for 7:00 p.m. (PT) in this basketball wagering war, which can be seen on WGN or Cox Sports Northwest.
For as great as the Bulls have been this year, we have to remember that they are just a .500 team on the road. A 23-4 United Center record is the best home mark in the Eastern Conference (though the Boston Celtics can match the mark with a win on Sunday over the Orlando Magic), and it is a record that is only behind that of the San Antonio Spurs this season.
Thus far on this West Coast swing, head coach Tom Thibodeau and company have gone 1-1 both SU and against the NBA odds, winning at Staples Center against the Los Angeles Clippers, but losing to the Golden State Warriors, 101-90, in a bad showing on Saturday night.
The stars for this team really do shine on a regular basis. We know that this lineup will look a lot more intimidating once Joakim Noah gets back in the fold, but for the time being, throwing Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer and Derrick Rose out there at the same time in the starting five is pretty amazing. The three are combining to average 62.0 PPG this year, making them one of the highest scoring trios in the NBA.
Boozer is also a double-double per night man, averaging 10.2 boards per game.
As iffy as the Bulls have been on the road this year, the Blazers have been just as sharp at home. They took down the aforementioned Spurs just last week, 99-86, in a very impressive showing to move to 10 games above .500 here at home.
You can bet that Portland will be glad to have this one home game sandwiched between six road dates, especially since the first three games only yielded one win against the Cleveland Cavaliers (and who doesn't beat the Cavs at this point!).
In that win against Cleveland, Portland netted three scorers with at least 20 points on the day. Wesley Matthews was the high scorer for the game pouring in 31, while LaMarcus Aldridge (20) and Nicolas Batum (21) also reached the 20-point barrier.
Matthews is really coming on strong with the injured Brandon Roy out of the lineup, as he is now up to scoring 16.5 PPG this year. Aldridge is the team's leading scorer at 21.2 PPG and the second leading rebounder with 9.1 RPG.
Earlier this season, Portland lost to a significantly different looking Bulls team in Chicago, Chicago team, 110-98. The home team has won and covered three straight in this series. The Bulls haven't won a game here in Portland since 2007, and are just 5-11 SU here since the 1993-94 campaign. Seven of the last eight meetings have also gone past the 'total' as well.
NBA RoundUp for 2/7
by Dan Bebe
Boston Celtics @ Charlotte Bobcats with a total of N/A
Sometimes there are teams that just dominate a particular opponent, against all situational and scheduling odds. Sometimes it doesn't make a ton of sense (Houston and Memphis, until a few weeks ago), and sometimes, like with this one, it adds up perfectly. Charlotte is a poorly oiled, slower, worse-shooting, similar-tempo, kid brother to the Boston Celtics, and the shamrocks remind the Bobcats of that fact in just about every meeting. Boston just keeps beating Charlotte like a drum, though I will give the Cats some credit in keeping it close with Boston the last time these two teams met. I'm interested to see what sort of line we get, since Boston has been impressively bad on the second half of most road back-to-backs, and have played to the Under in most of those, as well. I'm getting inklings that this line might be near Boston by 4.5, in which case I'd probably leave it alone. I want to fade Boston on the back-to-back, especially against a revenge-minded Bobcats team, but revenge hasn't helped them in this series yet - why would it start now? Small lean to CHARLOTTE, and lean to UNDER.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Hornets (-8) with a total of 201
I must admit, I'm looking for ways to back the Wolves, but I'm not finding many. The Hornets are coming off a home loss to the Lakers, but Chris Paul appeared to play through his ankle injury just fine. The issue in that game was that New Orleans simply had nothing to slow down Pau Gasol with Emeka Okafor out. Minnesota is not going to pound the rock inside like the Lakers can, since the Wolves are primarily a 3-point shooting team with one solid rebounder (Love) and one scorer (Beasley). The Hornets got plastered by Minny earlier this year, so the better team is on revenge, and the Hornets desperately need to locate a win to snap out of this mini-funk, be it injury-related or not. I do believe the total right around 200 tells us that this game is going to be played closer to New Orleans' preferred pace. I would be much more confident in New Orleans at a number like 6.5 or 7, but even at 8, I still have a small lean to the HORNETS, and just slightly to the UNDER.
Los Angeles Lakers (-3.5) @ Memphis Grizzlies with a total of 195
Memphis is playing extremely solid ball right now, and the Lakers appear to be struggling a bit. And that, in a nutshell, has brought this line down a few points from where it was not too long ago. Consider that the last time the Lakers visited Memphis, they were laying 5.5, and, similar to this meeting, both teams were rested. So, since then, the Lakers and Grizz have worked themselves 2 points closer in power ranking. Is it time to hop off the fade train? Possibly. The Lakers tend to pull together on these long road trips, and have an interesting knack for finding ways to win the easier road games by 8-to-10, and the tougher ones by 5 or 6. In terms of which team is currently playing better basketball, relative to its own potential, the Grizzlies are far and away the hot club, but in terms of betting value, the Lakers fade train might be running on fumes. Small lean to the LAKERS and the OVER.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Dallas Mavericks (-15) with a total of 204.5
At this price, I am rather strongly considering the hapless Cavs. To their credit, while they may be losing every game and setting NBA records for futility in the process, they are, at least, competitive in the last week. The only problem? Dallas is steamrolling teams right now. The Mavs are rounding back into Dirk-shape, covering 5 straight spreads while winning 8 straight games, overall. Simply put - the value is squarely on the disaster from Ohio, but I'd rather wait until Cleveland plays a team having any sort of issue as opposed to one of the hottest teams in the NBA. PASS on the side, totals lean to the OVER.
Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets with a total of N/A
I'm not 100% sure why this line is off, and I've been looking for answers. Hopefully, we'll learn more in the morning. My best guess is that Aaron Brooks is going to get suspended for abandoning his team, and Melo's elbow is sore, but neither may impact the game...In any event, Houston heads back out for one more road game after playing 4 on the road and 1 at home. This is a double-revenge spot for the Rockets, who, as a team, seem somewhat unaffected by the location of a game. Not so much that they'll win at any spot, but they'll shoot 60% on the road just as easily as they'll shoot 40%, and the same story goes for home games. That makes me think this game could go in a ton of directions. One thing you have to give to Houston: when they lose, they sure do fight their tails off to keep the game relatively close. Outside of an ugly loss to Orlando at home, and a late-game flop in San Antonio, the Rockets seem to find ways to lose by 4-to-7 points. Let's wait and see where this line opens up, but if the 7-point underdog line Houston was afforded in Denver earlier this year is any indication, it will likely open between 5 and 6.5 (since Houston is rested this time around). Denver, meanwhile, is still looking for a defense, and winning when they feel like it. Lean to ROCKETS and the UNDER.
Chicago Bulls (-1.5) @ Portland Trailblazers with a total of 183
This line is begging me to take the Bulls, and I can't help but feel a bit tempted. Considering Portland is coming home off a 3-game road trip (shorter than our usual limit of 4), is playing its 5th game in 7 days, and, simply put, just isn't playing that well, it's hard to see a great reason to back Portland. There are a couple small reasons to handle Chicago with an oven mitt, though. First, Portland is on revenge from a butt-kicking they took in Chicago back in November. Second, the Bulls loss in Golden State was a sluggish effort, the kind of game that might mark a short stretch of tired play. Third, the Bulls loss to the Warriors snapped a 6-game win streak, and I tend to look to fade teams off a long winning stretch. The scales of handicapping justice are having issues weighing out the angles. If we just look at regression, the lean is to PORTLAND, since the Blazers shot 0-for-14 from 3-land in that game in Chicago, the Bulls shot 60% from the field, and Portland only lost by 12, and I can't help but peek at the UNDER.
Utah Jazz (-2) @ Sacramento Kings with a total of 199
The Kings have played the Jazz pretty tough over the last couple of seasons, despite the apparent gap in team talent. That may partially explain the low line. Certainly, Utah's lackluster play over the last month combined with Sacramento's ability to cover spreads is also pushing the line down. Still, Utah hasn't been less than a 7-point favorite to the Kings in quite some time, and that this line is an entire handful less than that, and neither team is on a back-to-back or missing a superstar tells us all we need to know. Utah is playing inconsistent, at best, and though Deron Williams is back, I'm wondering if his performance in Denver was more about adrenaline than health. Kings bounce back from the Spurs loss by taking out aggression against a less skilled team that, in general, seems content to trade buckets. Lean to the KINGS and the OVER.
Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors (-3) with a total of 221
I want to go straight to the revenge factor, but the home-and-home scheduling spot supersedes all of it. These teams play again, in Phoenix, on the 10th, so this game is merely a precursor to the second showdown. And, for those that have been reading all season, you know how we generally handle these spots. Wait out the first game, hope for an intriguing final score, and react accordingly. In terms of taking this game in isolation, then yes, we can look at Golden State's revenge from losing to Phoenix, at home, back on December 2. However, I would argue that Golden State has stepped up its defense - not to the point that they're a juggernaut, but they're actually trying to stop people, and it's working out nicely. Phoenix is in the midst of a very home-heavy portion of their schedule, so I'm curious to see how the Marcin Gortat Freight Train looks on the road. Something tells me it won't be quite as pretty. Phoenix shot a powerhouse 55% the last time they came to Oakland, and I'm inclined to think the Warriors are going to be focused on keeping that from happening again. Lean to GOLDEN STATE and the UNDER.