Monday's Best NBA Bet
Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors (4.5, 218)
Fading the Mavs is one of the most profitable NBA bets going. Dallas is 2-12 against the spread over its last 14 games and trade rumors surround the club.
Owner Mark Cuban is determined to improve his roster with the Kings Kevin Martin and the Wizards Caron Butler the main names floating out there. Cuban has never been shy about pulling the trigger on a big trade and it’s clear that his club needs a shakeup.
Coach Rick Carlisle tried to fix the problem by installing bench sparkplug Jason Terry into the starting lineup. Terry is producing offensively but his presence in the starting five leaves Dallas near helpless defensively. Terry is an undersized shooting guard and Jason Kidd can’t stay in front of any point guard with half a first step.
The Warriors always play better at home and the Mavs should be content to play run ‘n’ gun ball.
Pick: Over
Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio Spurs (N/A)
The Lakers may have lost their outside scoring threat just as the Spurs have found theirs.
With Kobe Bryant questionable for tonight's game at San Antonio, Spurs guard George Hill has been answering questions about his ability to lead the team.
Since moving into a starting role 10 games ago, Hill has averaged 17.1 points per game on 51 percent shooting from the field.
"George Hill's just a fantastic basketball player,'' Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said of the club's 2008 first-round pick who averaged 5.7 points during his rookie season. "We're really thrilled with his progress in his shooting and his approach to the game.''
The Lakers also may be without center Andrew Bynum, who suffered a bruised hip on Saturday and is listed as questionable. That could be good news in the paint for Tim Duncan.
Pick: Spurs
San Antonio (29-20, 24-24-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (39-13, 23-27-2 ATS)
The Spurs continue their season-long eight-game road trip with a key matchup against the Lakers inside the Staples Center.
San Antonio is 2-1 on the trip so far (1-2 ATS) after beating the Clippers inside Staples Center on Saturday, winning 98-81 as a 3½-point favorite. George Hill, a second-year pro, led the way with 22 points and Tony Parker added 14 points and 14 assists. The Spurs have won four of six overall (3-3 ATS), but they are just a mediocre 10-10 SU (9-11 ATS) on the highway this season.
The Kobe Bryant-less Lakers went to Portland on Saturday and blew out the Blazers 99-82 as 3½-point favorites. Bryant missed Saturday’s contest with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest. Ron Artest picked up the slack with a 21-point performance and Lamar Odom had 10 points, six assists and 22 rebounds. The Lakers had an eight-game home winning streak in Friday’s 126-113 loss to the Nuggets and are now 24-4 SU at Staples Center this season, but just 13-14-1 ATS.
In their lone meeting this season, San Antonio scored a 105-85 rout of the Lakers back on Jan. 12, easily cashing as a 3½-point home chalk. Los Angeles had won seven of nine (SU and ATS) prior to that game, including spread-covers in all three matchups last season. The Lakers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the Spurs inside Staples Center.
The Spurs are on ATS surges of 12-4-1 on Monday and 18-7-2 against Pacific Division teams, but they’re also on pointspread slides of 2-5 after a spread-cover, 1-4 after a straight-up win and 2-5 against Western Conference teams. The Lakers are 3-1-2 ATS in their last six after a spread-cover, but just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five overall and 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven Monday games.
San Antonio is on several “under” streaks, including 12-5 on Monday, 5-1 on the road, 4-1 in Pacific Division teams and 7-2 against teams with a winning record. Los Angeles is on “under” runs of 19-9 on Monday, 17-8-1 after a spread-cover, 7-2 against winning teams and 4-0 against Southwest Division squads. In this rivalry, the “under” has been the play in seven of the past nine meetings overall, with the last four in a row in Hollywood staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
New Orleans Hornets vs. Orlando Magic
The New Orleans Hornets and the Orlando Magic will both be gunning for a victory on Monday when they meet at Amway Arena.
The Hornets put up 36 points in the third quarter and came away with a 104-99 victory over the Bobcats on Saturday, as 9-point underdogs. That game's combined score made it OVER the posted total of 191.
Darren Collison led the Hornets with 22 points and five rebounds, and David West added 21 points in the win.
The Magic defeated Boston 96-89 as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (187.5).
Vince Carter score 20 points for Orlando and Dwight Howard added 16 points and 13 rebounds in the win.
Team records:
New Orleans: 27-24 SU, 24-27 ATS
Orlando: 34-17 SU, 25-23-3 ATS
New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Monday are 5-5
Before playing Boston are 6-4
After playing Charlotte are 9-1
After a win are 4-6
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Monday are 7-3
Before playing Chicago are 5-5
After playing Boston are 7-3
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Orlando's last 7 games at home
Orlando is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Next up:
New Orleans home to Boston, Wednesday, February 10
Orlando at Chicago, Wednesday, February 10
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
The Dallas Mavericks and the Golden State Warriors will both be trying to pick up a win on Monday when they battle at Oracle Arena.
The Mavericks were defeated 117-108 by the Timberwolves last time out, as 10-point favorites. That game's 225 points sailed OVER the posted total of 205.5.
Dirk Nowitzki collected 21 points for the Mavericks, and Jason Terry had 20 in a losing effort.
The Warriors were defeated 104-95 by the Thunder last time out, as 4-point underdogs. That game's 199 points went UNDER the posted total of 215.
Stephen Curry netted 23 points in a losing effort.
Current streak:
Golden State has lost 8 straight games.
Team records:
Dallas: 31-19 SU, 20-30 ATS
Golden State: 13-36 SU, 27-21-1 ATS
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Monday are 9-1
Before playing Denver are 6-4
After playing Minnesota are 8-2
After a loss are 7-3
Golden State most recently:
When playing on Monday are 5-5
Before playing LA Clippers are 3-7
After playing Oklahoma City are 3-7
After a loss are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Golden State
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Golden State
Golden State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Golden State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Dallas
Golden State is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Dallas
Golden State is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games
Next up:
Dallas at Denver, Tuesday, February 9
Golden State home to LA Clippers, Wednesday, February 10
San Antonio Spurs vs. Los Angeles Lakers
The San Antonio Spurs and the Los Angeles Lakers will both be gunning for a victory on Monday when they meet at STAPLES Center.
The Spurs got out to an 18-point lead in the first quarter en route to a 98-81 victory over the Clippers on Saturday. The Spurs covered the 3.5-point spread, while the 179 points fell UNDER the posted total of 195.
Tony Parker had 14 points and dished out 14 assists in leading the Spurs, and George Hill added 22 points in the win.
The Lakers expanded on their first-half lead and came away with a 99-82 victory over the Trail Blazers 99-82 on Saturday. The Lakers covered the 2-point spread, but the combined score went UNDER the posted total of 192.5.
Lamar Odom had 10 points and hauled down 22 rebounds for a double-double, and Ron Artest netted 21 points in that win.
Team records:
San Antonio: 29-20 SU, 24-24-1 ATS
Los Angeles: 39-13 SU, 23-28-1 ATS
San Antonio most recently:
When playing on Monday are 7-3
Before playing Denver are 6-4
After playing LA Clippers are 2-8
After a win are 4-6
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Monday are 5-5
Before playing Utah are 9-1
After playing Portland are 9-1
After a win are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
San Antonio is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
San Antonio is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
LA Lakers are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio
LA Lakers are 19-2 SU in their last 21 games at home
LA Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing San Antonio
LA Lakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against San Antonio
Next up:
San Antonio at Denver, Thursday, February 11
LA Lakers at Utah, Wednesday, February 10
NBA RoundUp For 2/8
By Dan Bebe
Hornets @ Magic - Orlando by 7.5 with a total of 194.5. The first thing that struck me when I saw this line was "what the hell are the oddsmakers smoking?" Orlando to win by just 7.5 over the Chris Paul-less Hornets? The Magic are indeed on the second half of a back-to-back after posting a nice road win against the Celtics yesterday afternoon, so that is indeed giving the line a slight downward bump, but man, this line is just asking for a bet on the Magic, and I don't feel like you can ever really trust a line like that. The Hornets managed to steal a win against a Bobcats team that hadn't been home in ages and was in a trademark letdown spot, but now we're asking this team, that is relying much more heavily on the fast-break without Paul, to beat a vastly superior Magic team that may have played some of their best defense all season. The question here is whether the Magic can parlay that nice win over Boston into a home cover, or if they'll suffer a letdown after the big ABC game on Sunday. This game is tough to predict, as you've got a New Orleans team that could very easily get blown out of the building if Orlando gives even a decent effort. They could certainly cover if Orlando lets them hang around for a half. To me, it's basically a coin-flip. I lean to the Hornets to grab another cover here, though I highly doubt they can pull off the win, as I feel Orlando might be in for a weak performance after picking up the season series in over the Celts. It is worth noting, though, before moving forward, that the Magic beat the Celtics in a great comeback just a couple weeks back, then proceeded to destroy the Hawks the very next game; they did have a day off to rest up for that one, and here they're on back-to-back, a situation that has seen the Magic post a 5-5-2 ATS mark. The total is also intriguing, as we've seen the Hornets really push the pace, playing to 8 of 9 overs, while the Magic have been trying to grind games out, playing to 9 of 11 unders. This one is a crapshoot no matter how you cut it, but I'm inclined to believe that with the Magic on the 2nd half of a back-to-back, there may be a couple quarters in here where they lose focus on the defensive end; I lean Over.
Spurs @ Lakers - This line is OFF. And for good reason - Kobe Bryant is hurt, and his late scratch, the injury news that plagued our Top Play on Saturday, is right back in focus in this game in LA. But what do we want, really? The Lakers other guys stepped up big time in the road win over Portland, just the way you'd expect them to when the superstar went down just before gametime. It's been discussed ad nauseum, the "Injured Star Theory", but one of the most interesting facets is trying to determine how long the "other guys" can make up for the superstar. Some believe it's 1 game. I happen to believe it varies depending on the quality of the team and the prognosis of the injured star. That is, psychologically, the "other guys" deal with a different sense of what sort of effort to put forth. I think in this case, where the Lakers know they're only going to be without Kobe for a game or two more, max, if that, guys like Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom can carry a team for a couple games, not just one. It's a predicament, to be sure. Hell, maybe Kobe will play and it won't matter, but I'd actually rather bet this game without Kobe, since I think the Lakers home crowd can potentially carry the other guys even if they start to run low on energy. On the other side, the rickety old Spurs are coming off an easy winner over the Clippers, another team that was coming home off an 8-game road trip and just completely unfocused. San Antonio has played pretty well on the rodeo road trip so far, but the Lakers are going to be playing with some strong revenge here. San Antonio beat LA in Texas by 20 in a game the Lakers just never showed up for, and the Spurs shot a ridiculous 57% from the field. That most certainly will not happen again, and if the Lakers are again without Kobe, we can expect the same deliberate offense and methodical team defense (and great rebounding). And really, other than the fact that the Spurs just ran all over the Lakers earlier this year, the Lakers have had nice answers for San Antonio since they acquired Gasol and since Bynum learned how to play a little. I lean Lakers and Under.
Mavericks @ Warriors - Dallas by 4.5 with a total of 218. This is a battle of two teams, pardon the expression, literally crapping down their legs. The Warriors, the home team, are fresh off getting crushed, again, by the Thunder. They have lost 8 straight games SU, and while they're 4-4 ATS in that same stretch (and 7-4 ATS in their last 11), this team is barely covering as a dog, and while they might actually be getting a point or two of value because of the public's horrible perception of them, they are an extremely dangerous play. I have always liked backing the Warriors against the Mavericks due to the Don Nelson connection, but it looks like Golden State is starting to slow a little. They've played to 3 straight unders, and averaged just around 98 ppg while doing so, when their season average is over 106! If the Warriors can muster up some energy, playing them against the Mavericks is a great proposition. They've covered the last 3 games in Oakland against the Mavs, and they're actually 19-9 ATS against Dallas over the last decade-plus. The question here is whether fading Dallas is a valuable choice right now. The Mavs are 0-6 ATS since January 26th, so they're playing some awful basketball. The biggest issue continues to be defense, as the Mavs allow 98.7 ppg to their opponents on the season, but have allowed their last 6 opponents to each break 100. They're also 5-2 O/U in the last 7 games. Interestingly, though, one of the unders came against these Warriors, when the teams combined for 211 points, well under the posted mark of 218. In fact, both games so far have been under 218, the same total each time. And guess what? It's the same again. So our job is to try to determine if oddsmakers are just going to continue to try to split money on 218 until they have to change that value, or if indeed they believe this total is going to get up to 218. I'm inclined to believe the Warriors score a ton of points here against the porous Dallas defense. I like the Warriors, and I like the Over.
Points at a Premium
By SportsPic
Total players cashing plenty of 'Under' tickets with the Magicians of late won't jump ship when Orlando hosts New Orleans on Monday night. Magic tightening defensive screws of late have recorded a 5-0 'Under' mark the past five on the hardwood allowing just 87.0 points/game on 39.9% shooting. Going back sixteen games, Magic are 13-3 'Under' giving up only 93.3 points per game. Magic one of the best at protecting home court are 10-4-1 'Under' last fifteen at home allowing just one of those fifteen visitors to bust the century mark in scoring (85.2 PPG). With Magic 4-1 'Under' hosting Hornets allowing bugs 88.2 points/game no need bucking trends. Consider 'Under'. Also worth mentioning is the fact that Magic carry into the contest four straight 'Under' vs Southwest opponents (7-2 'Under' L9) and that Hornets are 12-3 'Under' last fifteen held under the century mark in scoring.
Inside the Paint - Monday
By Chris David
Now that pro football has finally ended, gamblers can turn their attention to the hardwood for daily action in the NBA. Monday’s card only has three games on the docket, but it includes a televised double-header on TNT. New Orleans heads to the Sunshine State for a battle against Orlando in the first tilt before the Spurs renew their rivalry with the Lakers out West. Also, on the card is another Western Conference matchup between the Mavs and Warriors from Oakland.
Let’s break ‘em down!
New Orleans (27-24 SU, 24-27 ATS) at Orlando (33-17 SU, 22-23 ATS)
The Magic have been listed as 8 ½-point favorites against the Hornets and the number seems fair based on talent, but the letdown factor is in play. Orlando posted an impressive 96-89 victory against Boston on Sunday, cashing tickets as a three-point underdog. Stan Van Gundy’s team has been tough to figure out in back-to-back spots, evidenced by their 6-6 both SU and ATS record.
New Orleans has taken advantage of teams on zero days rest this year, going 3-1. However, this is a different Hornets club these days, especially without All Star Chris Paul (knee). The team has gone 2-3 both SU and ATS without their point guard, but both of the victories came on the road and as live underdogs. The club has played a looser without Paul, on both ends of the court, and it’s translated into a 4-1 ‘over’ run.
Orlando owns a 19-5 SU and 12-11 ATS mark at home this year, while New Orleans has gone 11-16 SU and 14-13 ATS on the road. This will be the first meeting between the two teams this year. The pair split the previous six encounters and the ‘under’ has gone 5-1 during this span.
San Antonio (29-20 SU, 24-25 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (39-13 SU, 24-26 ATS)
San Antonio continues its “Rodeo Trip” on Monday and the club could be catching a break in this spot. For starters, the Spurs played in the same building on Saturday as they routed the Clippers 98-81 as 3 ½-point favorites. Now they face a Lakers team that is banged up and also playing their third game in four nights.
Kobe Bryant (ankle) is listed as ‘questionable’ and Andrew Bynum (hip) is ‘doubtful’ for Monday. The Lakers didn’t have Bryant on Saturday and the team still trounced the Trail Blazers 99-82 at the Rose Garden.
Los Angeles has been a tough out at home (24-4 SU), but gamblers have watched them go 13-13 ATS. The Spurs have only played 20 games on the road and they’re a pedestrian 10-10 SU and 9-11 ATS. Greg Popovich’s team has had trouble scoring outside of San Antonio (97 PPG) this season, which has helped the ‘under’ go 13-7.
The Spurs walloped the Lakers 105-85 on Jan. 12 as 3 ½-point home favorites in their only meeting this year. San Antonio shot a blistering 57% from the field, while the Lakers managed 44 percent. Make a note that Bynum led L.A. with 23 points and Bryant was right behind with 16 points in the loss. Seven of the previous 10 in this series have gone ‘under’ the number, including this year’s contest.
Dallas (31-19 SU, 20-30 ATS) at Golden State (13-36 SU, 27-21 ATS)
The other late-night battle on Monday happens from the Bay Area as Dallas goes head-to-head against Golden State, who is in a serious funk. Don Nelson’s team has dropped eight consecutive (3-5 ATS) games, including three in a row at Oracle Arena.
Even though the Warriors have been horrible against the number lately, gamblers should be weary of Dallas these days too. The Mavs are 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
A large part of the success for Rick Carlisle’s team this year has been attributed to its 16-10 SU and 15-11 ATS record on the road, yet the team is just 1-3 in its last four encounters away from home. Golden State is 9-14 SU and 13-10 ATS at home this year.
The two teams have met twice this regular season, with each club earning a victory on their homcourt. Recently, Dallas captured a 110-101 home victory against Golden State last Wednesday. The Warriors covered as 12 ½-point road ‘dogs and the combined 211 points dipped ‘under’ the closing number. The ‘under’ has cashed in both meetings.
vegasinsider.com
Trend Report - Monday
By Ed Meyer
Spurs at Lakers – The Spurs are 9-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) since February 25, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a win in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted. The Spurs are 8-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since May 19, 2008 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Spurs are 0-7 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since December 10, 2006 on the road after playing the Clippers. The Spurs are 6-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) since December 13, 2002 with at most one day of rest after a win in which they attempted at least 10 more three pointers than their season-to-date average. The Lakers are 7-0 ATS (5.6 ppg) since November 10, 1999 with at most one day of rest after a road win in which they controlled at least 60% of the available rebounds.
Hornets at Magic – The Hornets are 8-0 ATS (13.8 ppg) since December 13, 2002 as a road dog off a win as a dog in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Hornets are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since December 30, 2008 with at least one day of rest after a road win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Magic are 6-0-1 ATS (7.2 ppg) since December 03, 2008 at home vs non-conference opponent in their first match-up of the season.
Mavericks at Warriors – The Mavericks are 8-0-1 ATS (7.7 ppg) since February 01, 2005 with two or more days of rest after a loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since December 04, 2009 when they allowed one-hundred-plus points for two straight games. The Warriors are 9-0 ATS (15.2 ppg) since April 12, 2006 at home versus the Mavericks. The Warriors are 6-0 ATS (15.3 ppg) since March 07, 2007 at home after a game in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average.
Tips and Trends
Dallas Mavericks at Golden St. Warriors
Mavericks (-4.5, O/U 218): Dallas appears to be tiring down a bit as the All Star break approaches, having lost 4 of their past 5 games SU. Dallas is 31-19 SU on the season, currently leading the Southwest division of the Western Conference. Despite all of their winning this season, the Mavericks are only 20-30 ATS this season. The Mavericks are 16-10 SU and 15-11 ATS on the road this season. Every single road game but 1 this season have featured the exact same result both SU and ATS for Dallas. Dallas is 7-6 ATS as the listed road favorite this season. Since the new year, the Mavericks are a paltry 4-14 ATS in their 18 games. Dallas has scored at least 106 PTS in 6 of their past 7 games. F Dirk Nowitzki averages 25 PPG this season, the 7th most in the NBA this season. Nowitzki has been held under 30 PTS in 9 consecutive games. The Mavericks have struggled of late because of their defense, allowing 6 straight opponents to score more than 100 PTS against them.
Mavs are 5-21 ATS last 26 games as a favorite.
Under is 22-6 last 28 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 116 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Warriors: It's been more than 2 weeks since the Warriors have tasted victory, having lost 8 consecutive games SU. Golden St. is 13-36 SU on the season, the 3rd worst record in the entire NBA. Surprisingly, the Warriors have been an ATS machine, having gone 27-21-1 ATS this entire season. The Warriors are 9-14 SU and 13-10 ATS this season at home. The Warriors have lost each of their past 3 home games ATS, with all 3 coming as the listed home underdog. Golden St. is 8-5 ATS as the listed home underdog this entire season. The Warriors are 7-4 ATS over their past 11 games despite their poor SU record in that same span. The Warriors have won both meetings ATS against the Mavericks this season, with both ATS wins coming as double digit underdogs. G Monta Ellis is on fire this season offensively, ranking 6th in the NBA with 26.2 PPG. The Warriors average nearly 107 PPG, but allow an NBA worst 111.3 PPG this season.
Warriors are 11-4 ATS last 15 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 8-3 last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Key Injuries - F Corey Maggette (finger) is probable.
F Anthony Randolph (ankle) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 108