Denver (45-21, 31-30-5 ATS) at Houston (33-31, 29-35 ATS)
The Nuggets take aim at their seventh straight win as they make a stop inside the Toyota Center for a matchup with the Rockets.
Denver is looking to wrap up a four-game road trip with a spotless record and it enters this one on a six-game winning streak (4-1-1 ATS) after going to Memphis and blowing out the Grizzlies 125-108 on Saturday, easily cashing as 1½-point favorites. They broke the game open by outscoring the Grizzlies 40-23 in the fourth quarter as J.R. Smith led the way with 30 points. Denver has averaged 115.4 points a game in its last five contests and shot 51.6 percent from the field.
Houston has won two straight (1-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 116-108 home win over the Nets, coming up just short as a 9½-point favorite. Luis Scola had the best game of his career, shooting 20-for-25 from the field for 44 points and 12 rebounds. The Rockets are looking for a third straight win, something they haven’t done since Dec. 22.
The Nuggets have won both matchups with Houston this season (2-0 ATS), including a 97-92 victory inside the Toyota Center back on Jan. 27, cashing as a 2½-point pup and making them 5-2 ATS in the last seven head-to-head matchups overall.
Denver is on ATS slides of 1-5 on Mondays, 1-10 as a road chalk of less than five points and 3-11-4 after a spread-cover, but it is on positive ATS runs of 6-2-3 on the road, 3-0-1 overall and 39-19-3 against teams with a winning record. The Rockets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a home ‘dog and 6-2 ATS in their last eight Monday games, but they are on ATS skids of 9-22 overall, 5-11 against the Western Conference, 3-14 at home and 3-13 after a straight-up win.
For the Nuggets, the under is 4-1 in the last five overall and 7-3 in their last 10 against Southwest Division teams, but otherwise they’re on “over” runs of 7-2 as a favorite, 15-7 against winning teams and 4-1 as a chalk of less than five points. Houston has topped the total in 10 of 12 after a straight-up win, but it is on “under” streaks of 6-2 on Mondays, 4-1 as a home ‘dog, 7-3 after a non-cover and 5-0 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
In this series, the “over” has cashed in four of the last six overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
New Orleans (32-35, 30-36-1 ATS) at L.A. Clippers (25-42, 29-37-1 ATS)
The Clippers will try to snap a seven-game losing streak when they welcome the equally struggling Hornets into the Staples Center.
New Orleans got smoked in Phoenix last night, losing 120-106 and failing to cash as 10-point underdogs. The Hornets have now dropped three in a row and seven of their last eight (0-7-1 ATS), and they haven’t won a road game since Feb. 6 in Charlotte, a nosedive spanning seven games (2-4-1 ATS).
Los Angeles ended a winless five-game road trip (1-4 ATS) with Saturday’s 118-88 loss in San Antonio as an 11½-point underdog. The Clippers, who are 1-6 ATS during their seven-game slide, have failed to score in triple digits in six straight games, tallying 88 or fewer four times. During their just-completed road trip, they got outscored by an average of 18.6 ppg (110.4-91) and allowed those five opponents to shoot a combined 50.5 percent from the field.
The Hornets are on an astounding 12-0 SU and ATS run against the Clippers, including three victories this season. In November, New Orleans went to Los Angeles and scored a 112-84 win as a two-point chalk, and followed it up with home wins in November (110-102 as a two-point ‘dog) and January (108-94 as a 7½-point chalk). The Hornets have won and covered six straight on the Clippers’ home floor, and they’re 17-4 ATS in the last 21 clashes overall.
New Orleans has struggled at the betting window lately, currently on ATS skids of 1-9-1 against Western conference teams, 2-5 on Mondays and 6-15 against teams with a losing record. Meanwhile, the Clippers have cashed in 12 of 18 at home and 11 of 17 against teams with losing records, but in addition to their current 1-6 ATS drought, they are on pointspread skids of 7-20-1 on Monday, 16-44 against the Western Conference and 16-38 against Southwest Division teams.
The Hornets are on several “over” streaks, including 9-3 on the road, 4-1 on Mondays, 5-0 on the second night of a back-to-back and 5-0 against teams with a losing record. Los Angeles has stayed below the posted total in 35 of 52 Monday contests, but it is on “over” runs of 3-0-1 overall, 6-1 against losing teams and 15-7 against Western Conference teams.
In this series, the “over” has been the play in each of the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
NBA RoundUp For 3/15
By Dan Bebe
Knicks @ Sixers - Philadelphia by 3.5 with a total of 210.5. Two teams with nothing to play for going head-to-head; just what we've always wanted, right? Well, there are still some angles at play that we might as well take a peek at, just in case this game turns out to be a value. Off the bat, it's pretty clear that the Sixers have mailed it in for this season. They've lost 8 of 9 games, and 3 straight, and generally they've been getting pummeled, as they're just 3-6 ATS in those 9 contests. Philadelphia got whipped by the Heat in Miami yesterday, though it's tough to call it a back-to-back, just because of the game being played on Sunday afternoon. Philly has been pretty middle-of-the-pack in back-to-back games anyway, and the fact that they're still laying 3.5 here is somewhat of a surprise to me. The Knicks come to town off an insane road blowout of the Dallas Mavericks. That game is tough to explain, though the Knicks certainly have the offensive tempo to put up some numbers. The Sixers aren't playing defense, they're not scoring much, and it looks like they're trying to give the young guys some more run, here. Again, it's tough to really claim that one team is a value in this one, since neither has any reason to give 100%, but I think when you've got two teams that both have nothing going on, it's a wise move to look at either the home team or the team getting points. Unfortunately, those are opposite sides in this game. Philadelphia has been awful at home at just 9-22 ATS, so perhaps that wipes out one angle, and I lean to the Knicks to at least take this sucker down to the wire, possibly win it outright. This total is awfully high, but you know New York wants a game up over 100, so I actually do have a slight lean to the Over.
Pistons @ Celtics - Boston by 9.5 with a total of 196. I would have loved to see Boston win yesterday in Cleveland, since that would have created downright MEGA value on the Pistons side, but even with the loss, I still think fading the Celtics at home is generally a decent bet. Unfortunately, Boston has actually been a more predictable look-ahead team this year than a letdown team. Coming off big games, they've done a decent job of covering spreads, though lately, those "letdown" spots have come on the road. We've talked at great length on the podcasts about that 9.5 number, and how it really entices the public to get on the favorite. It's not 10 points, so you're not laying double digits, and the public falls in love with the idea that surely the favorite can clear 9.5. But it's usually not so simple. The Pistons, despite their 9-10 ATS record in the season's second half, have actually been extremely predictable and successful when rested. Since the All Star Break, the Pistons are 7-3 ATS when on 1 day of rest, or more, and they had a day to gameplan here, and get those jump-shooting legs ready to roll. When on a back-to-back since the Break, the Pistons are an outstanding 0-5 ATS. If that doesn't tell you when to bet the Pistons, I don't know what does. I think this is a nice spot for them, as Detroit got beat by Boston at home earlier this month in a game that, really, Detroit could have won with a stronger second half. I think the Pistons are playing with pride right now, even if they're not winning much, but thanks to their pathetic mark in back-to-back games, they remain undervalued. I lean Detroit, since I think Boston has a mental lapse day, recovering from yesterday's mediocre effort in Cleveland. This total looks awfully high, but both teams have been playing less defensive-minded basketball than at any point in the last few years. I lean Over.
Nuggets @ Rockets - Denver by 3 with a total of 215.5. This side is very, very weird to me. I find it hard to believe the Nuggets are only 6-point neutral court favorites over Houston, but maybe my brain is just farting on this game. The Nuggets were laying 2 in Memphis on a back-to-back, so by that token, the Rockets are being ranked as 1-point better than the Grizzlies. It's almost as though someone got hurt, but I'm not aware of it, so for all the readers, if I missed something, please fill in the blanks. I can already tell that this game is going to be heavily bet on Denver, since it seems awfully easy to expect Denver to cover only 3 points in Houston, no? Something very weird about this game, and I can't quite put my finger on it. Yes, it's Denver's final game of their current 4-game road trip, but they've won 6 games in a row, and even in a game against Memphis that seemed like a trademark sluggish spot, Denver woke up and poured in 40 points in the 4th quarter. Quite frankly, while I feel like there's something going on with this line that I'm not quite processing, I wouldn't step in front of the Nuggets (again) without someone whispering to me that Carmelo Anthony has money on the opponent, or some similarly decisive inside information. I would love to say I lean to the Rockets, but I'm too busy scratching my head to lean in any direction. It's not a particularly good or bad spot for either team, and Denver had clubbed Houston twice already this year without much trouble. Be careful here. This total is the highest for any of the 3 meetings between these teams this year, which makes me think Houston and Denver get into a classic shootout, but with both teams coming off outrageously high-scoring games, I'm also concerned that it's just an inflated number. NO LEANS on this game.
Wizards @ Jazz - This line is OFF. Presumably because of Utah's injury issues. The Jazz are scuffling a little bit right now, dropping two straight games with the Bucks and the Thunder. Now, they have to head back home for a date with a team that doesn't seem all too interested in playing out the rest of the season. And that's a shame, too, because Utah is playing its 5th game in 7 days, and this would be a wonderful time to fade them if the competition wasn't so pathetic. The Wizards have lost 7 straight games, though I suppose the 2-5 ATS mark in that stretch isn't quite so horrid, still bad, though. Obviously, with Utah losing a couple in a row, the value of a play on Washington isn't quite as high, but I still contend that teams coming off a long stretch of solid play are sort of inclined to lose a few, or at least play less inspired basketball for a couple days before rounding back into shape. And while I want nothing more than to make a play on the Wizards, Washington played 3 games in 3 days, but only got 1 day off before this game in Utah, then another game tomorrow in Denver. This is a damn tiring stretch of basketball for both teams involved, which makes backing either club somewhat difficult. Still, when all is said and done, I have to lean to Washington. Even though they seem to have mailed it in, Utah is in a very difficult spot, and the spread is going to be massive on this one. In terms of the total, with both teams exhausted, I would think defense might be lacking, but at the same time, Washington hasn't cracked 100 points since Feb 26th. I might lean Under, depending on the line.
Hornets @ Clippers - This line is OFF. This line seems to be off because of Eric Gordon's injury, but man, you want to talk about two teams BOTH going down the toilet, this is that game. The Clippers are playing their first game home off a 5-game road trip that saw LA lose all 5 games, go 1-4 ATS, and of the 7 straight games the Clippers have lost, they've been blown out by 10 or more points in 6 of them, and lost the other game by 8. The Hornets lost in Phoenix last night, so they're probably going to be getting points in this game, and they've lost 8 straight games ATS. These are really 2 of the worst teams in the NBA right now, with the Bulls and Wolves also potential candidates for that award, and picking between the two is a struggle, to be sure. The Hornets have actually covered 10 straight games against the Clippers, and 8 of those 10 have gone over the posted total. Two of those 10 straight covers have come this season, but both of those games were in New Orleans. The question here is whether the Clippers can legitimately have a "first-game-home" letdown when they're losing nightly by 15-25 points. It almost seems like things can't get any worse for either of these teams. The Hornets, supposedly, are expecting Chris Paul back, so maybe they'll make one final push to rack up a few wins, and they did actually put forth a marginal effort last night in Phoenix before buckling to a better team, and they're 7-6 ATS on back-to-backs, so getting those 2 extra points might actually help their cause. I lean to the Hornets, who are sure to be a small road dog. I also lean to the Over, since I think the Clippers continue to struggle to defend (they've allowed 100 points in 8 straight), and the Hornets will continue to try to run, but might actually be able to score against a bad Clippers defense.
Lakers @ Warriors - Lakers by 7.5 with a total of 222. This game is 100% reliant on the Lakers actually trying. We know we're going to get a decent effort from the Warriors - those D-Leaguers are laying it on the line EVERY night, as they know one great game this year could potentially get them a contract for next season. Stephen Curry seems to be enjoying himself, and Monta Ellis, if healthy, is one of the tougher covers in the NBA. So, we know the Warriors are going to give a strong effort, especially against a marquee opponent like the Lakers. And are the Lakers really a 10.5 or 11-point neutral court favorite? That's a huge number of points to lay on the road, but again, if the Lakers give 90%, they can cover this number. The sheer size advantage the Lakers have over the Warriors is absurd, since Golden State's starting 5 is predominantly under 6'6", with a few exceptions, of course. But the Warriors have quietly covered 3 in a row and 6 of 8, so they're a good value right now, as one of the few BAD teams in the NBA still playing hard. In fact, aside from the fact that they're so wildly overmatched by the Lakers, the Warriors should be a good bet the rest of the season, as long as the D-Leaguers keep giving 100% - bad teams that are motivated to prove themselves are an amazing bet all year long, but even moreso as we hit the stretch run, and other teams start to mail it in. The Lakers are coming off a win on the road in Phoenix, so the obvious concern is that they're getting things turned around, and that makes me hesitant to back Golden State here. Also, LA beat Golden State 130-97 in Oakland earlier this year. I have a tiny lean to the Warriors because of the value, but we're talking TINY. The total intrigues me, since it seems awfully high. The Lakers haven't played that many high-scoring games lately, and I'm interested in seeing the bet% breakdown on this game, as that will give us a better indicator if this line is inflated or set high because oddsmakers believe the Warriors will crack 100 points. At first glance, I lean Over, but that is subject to change.
Trend Report - Monday
By Ed Meyer
Pistons at Celtics – The Celtics are 0-9 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since February 07, 1996 at home after a double digit loss against the Cavaliers. The Celtics are 0-7-1 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since March 25, 2005 as a home favorite when they scored at least 25 fewer points in their previous game than in the game before.
Hornets at Clippers – The Hornets are 12-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since April 10, 2007 versus the Clippers. The Hornets are 9-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since February 21, 2007 with no rest after a game in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Clippers are 0-9 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since February 05, 2000 at home after a road loss in which they allowed a shooting percentage at least 10 percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.
Wizards at Jazz – The Wizards are 0-8-1 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since December 13, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a home loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Jazz are 9-0 ATS (7.0 ppg) since April 21, 2009 after a game on the road in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
Nuggets at Rockets – The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS (-5.5 ppg) since November 28, 1995 as a dog off a win in which the game was tied at the end of the third quarter. The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (12.0 ppg) since March 10, 2008 as a dog with at most one day of rest after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The Rockets are 9-0-1 ATS (6.6 ppg) since February 02, 2008 after a win in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.
Knicks at 76ers – The Knicks are 0-8 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since November 03, 2006 as a dog with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points. The Knicks are 6-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since April 04, 2008 when they are playing in at least their fourth straight road game. The Sixers are 7-0 ATS (7.6 ppg) since March 11, 2009 after a road loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field.
Lakers at Warriors – The Warriors are 9-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since April 14, 2006 with at most one day of rest off a home win that broke at least a three-game losing streak. The Warriors are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since December 07, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a home win in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line. The Warriors are 7-0 ATS (11.5 ppg) since December 30, 2005 as a dog off a home win that broke at least a five-game losing streak.
Tips and Trends
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics
Pistons: This season has been rather forgettable for Detroit, as they are likely to miss the playoffs for only the second time this decade. Detroit comes into today's matchup as SU losers of 8 of their last 10 games SU. Detroit is starting to pick up their scoring however, as they've scored 100 PTS or more in 5 of their last 7 games overall. That's a big improvement for a team that only averages 93.4 PPG overall for the season, the 2nd worst in the NBA. G Richard Hamilton averages a team high 18.7 PPG. When completely healthy, the Pistons have 6 different players that average double digits in PTS this season. Of the Pistons top 3 scorers this season, none shoot better than 42.1% from the field. Detroit is 23-43 SU and 28-36-2 ATS overall this season. The Pistons are a paltry 7-25 SU and 13-18 ATS on the road this season. Detroit is also only 5-11 ATS when revenging an earlier season home SU loss this season. The Pistons are 2-5 ATS when listed as a road underdog of 9 to 12 PTS this season.
Pistons are 6-14 ATS last 20 games as a road underdog.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - G Rodney Stuckey (seizure) is doubtful.
C Ben Wallace (knee) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 97
Celtics (-9.5 O/U 196): All of a sudden the Celtics look vulnerable again, as they've lost 3 of their past 4 games SU entering tonight. Boston was looking to make a statement against Cleveland yesterday, but instead lost by double digits. The Celtics failed to outscore Cleveland in any quarter, as they were beaten SU soundly. The Celtics have split 2 games SU with Detroit this season. The Celtics are 41-24 SU and 25-38-2 ATS overall this season. Boston is currently in 4th place in the Eastern Conference playoff standings. The Celtics are 19-12 SU and 8-22-1 ATS in home games this season. Boston is only 4-8 ATS as a listed home favorite of 9.5 to 12 PTS this season. The Celtics play down to the level of their competition, as they are only 12-20 ATS against teams with a losing record. Boston has been struggling both offensively and defensively of late. The Celtics have been held under 100 PTS in 5 of their past 6 games, and they've allowed at least 103 PTS in each of their past 3 games.
Celtics are 2-8 ATS last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 22-5 last 27 games as a home favorite of 5 to 10.5 points.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 108 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Los Angeles Lakers at Golden St. Warriors
Lakers (-7.5, O/U 222): Los Angeles is in the middle of changing their philosophy on how to be successful. After losing 3 consecutive games SU and almost a 4th, the Lakers have decided once again that defense will be their utmost priority. In their latest game, they allowed the highest scoring team in the NBA to only score 96 PTS. The Lakers hope to continue that defensive effort today against the 3rd highest scoring team in the NBA. Los Angeles has only won 3 of their past 12 games ATS, as they simply haven't been playing very good basketball of late. The team is still battling some nagging injuries and there is even a little bit of turmoil between star players. Regardless of the soap opera known as the Lakers, they still have the 2nd best record in the NBA. Los Angeles is 48-18 SU this season, and they have a 3 game lead over Denver in the Western Conference playoff standings. The Lakers are 18-13 SU and 13-17-1 ATS on the road this season. The Lakers are only 25-30 ATS overall as the listed favorite this season. However, the Lakers are 4-1 ATS as a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 PTS this seasons.
Lakers are 2-7-1 ATS last 10 games as a favorite.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games as a road favorite.
Key Injuries - F Luke Walton (back) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 111
Warriors: Golden St. snapped a 6 game losing streak by beating Toronto at home in their last game SU. The Warriors continue to lose games overall, yet win those same games ATS. Golden St. is only 18-47 SU, yet is 37-27-1 ATS this season. It's very ironic that the team with the 3rd worst record in the NBA actually have one of the best records overall ATS. The Warriors have lost the past 8 meetings with the Lakers SU. Golden St. will be ready today, as they've been having so much success as the listed underdog this season. The Warriors have won each of their past 3 games ATS, all as the underdog. The Warriors are 14-19 SU and 19-14 ATS in home games this season. Today will be the 51st game this season the Warriors will be the listed underdog this season. The Warriors are 29-20-1 ATS this season as the listed undedog. The Warriors average 107.4 PPG this season, the 3rd most in the NBA. G Monta Ellis averages a team high 25.6 PPG this season, the 6th most in the NBA. Ellis leads a group of 3 Warriors players averaging more than 16 PPG this season.
Warriors are 8-0 ATS last 8 vs. NBA Pacific.
Under is 4-1 last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Key Injuries - F Vladimir Radmanovic (Achilles) is questionable.
G Raja Bell (wrist) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 109 (SIDE of the Day)