L.A. Lakers (59-19, 31-39-3 ATS) at New Orleans (34-40, 33-40-1 ATS)
The Lakers continue their five-game road trip with a stop in the Big Easy to take on a struggling New Orleans squad that has officially been eliminated from the playoffs.
Los Angeles has won eight of its last nine games (4-5 ATS), including two of three (SU and ATS) on the current trip. On Saturday, the Lakers went to Houston and scored a 109-101 win as a six-point favorite, a night after getting clobbered in Oklahoma City 91-75 as a one-point chalk. Pau Gasol led the charge Saturday with 30 points, and Kobe Bryant just missed a triple-double with 17 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists.
The Hornets have dropped eight of 10 overall (3-7 ATS) and 12 of the last 15 (3-11-1 ATS), and with Saturday’s 112-101 loss to the Blazers as s 3½-point home ‘dog, they were officially ousted from playoff contention. New Orleans’ defense was porous Saturday, allowing Portland to shoot 57.3 percent from the field, and the Hornets were outrebounded 35-25.
The Lakers have won three straight (1-2 ATS) against the Hornets and six of the last seven (3-4 ATS). Both meetings this season have been in Los Angeles, but the Lakers have won and cashed in four of their last five trips to New Orleans dating back to 2008, as the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven series clashes. Additionally, the ‘dog has covered in 13 of the last 16 head-to-head matchups.
Los Angeles has cashed in five of seven roadies, but it is otherwise on ATS slides of 0-6 after a spread-cover, 1-4 after a day off, 1-7-1 on Mondays and 1-5 against losing teams. The Hornets have cashed in 25 of 34 at home against teams with winning road marks, but they carry a plethora of negative ATS trends, including 3-11-1 overall, 1-6 at home, 3-10-1 against Western Conference teams, 1-8-1 after a day off, 3-8 after a straight-up loss and 2-8-1 against winning teams.
When it comes to the total, the Lakers are on several “under’ streaks, including 5-1 overall, 12-4 on the road, 5-0 after a straight-up win, 8-3 after a day off, 7-3 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against Western Conference teams. New Orleans has topped the posted total in five of seven at home, five straight on Monday, four of five after a non-cover and five of seven against Western Conference squads.
In this rivalry, the over has cashed in 15 of the last 22 meetings overall, but in New Orleans, the under has been the play each of the last four clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
Denver (48-26, 31-37-6 ATS) at Dallas (48-25, 30-42-1 ATS)
The struggling Nuggets, having dropped four of their last five, wrap up a five-game road trip at the American Airlines Center in a key Western Conference showdown with the Mavericks.
Denver fell to 1-3 (0-3-1 ATS) on its trip with Sunday’s 103-97 loss in Orlando, managing a push as a six-point underdog. The Nuggets had dropped seven straight at the betting window before Sunday, and they are just 1-4 (0-4-1 ATS) in their last five on the highway. For the season, they’re 18-20 on the road, but just 14-19-5 ATS.
The Mavericks have alternated wins and losses in their last four (2-2 ATS), scoring a 111-90 win at Golden State on Saturday, easily cashing as three-point road favorites. Rookie Rodrique Beaubois had the game of his career on Saturday, pouring in 40 points and grabbing eight rebounds, both easily career highs, as Dallas shot 48.4 percent from the floor.
Denver is 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 clashes with Dallas, including a 127-91 blowout back on Feb. 9 in Colorado, easily cashing as a seven-point favorite. However, prior to that, Dallas went to the Mile High City on Dec. 27 and scored the 104-96 victory as a 5½-point underdog. The Nuggets are still 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings overall, including six consecutive spread-covers in Texas.
The Nuggets carry ATS slides of 0-7-2 overall, 0-4-2 on the road, 0-3-2 on the road against teams with winning home records, 1-6-1 on the second night of a back-to-back and 1-6 on Monday, but they’re brings 19-8 ATS in their last 27 against Southwest Division teams and 7-1-4 in their last 12 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points. Dallas is on a plethora of negative ATS trends, including 2-6 overall, 4-26-1 at home, 8-24-1 as a favorite, 16-34-1 as a home favorite, 5-20-1 at home against teams with a losing road record and 7-18-1 after a straight-up win.
For the Nuggets, the under is on several runs, including 7-1 overall, 36-16 as underdogs, 8-3 on the road, 21-9 as road ‘dogs and 16-5 as a road ‘dog of between five and 10½ points. The Mavericks are on “over” streaks of 7-3 after a day off, 13-6 after a straight-up win, 5-1 against winning teams, 5-2 after a spread-cover and 7-3 against Northwest division foes.
In this series, the under has been the play in 13 of the last 19 played in Texas, but the over has cashed in five of the last six overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
NBA RoundUp For 3/29
By Dan Bebe
Raptors @ Bobcats - Charlotte by 8 with a total of 195.5. Toronto is starting to get itself a few covers here and there, but this team remains in a pretty miserable spiral, and Chicago is clawing its way awfully close to final playoff spot. And for Toronto, they outplayed Miami for 3 quarters yesterday, but then gave it away with a disjointed and ugly 4th, while the Heat played outstanding defense, and really, Toronto just finally missed a few outside jumpers. Interesting, I've only had two "huge" plays this entire NBA season, and the last time Toronto came to Charlotte, way back in early November before even going Pro, I had what I guess you might call a "Biggest Play" on Charlotte, and they beat Toronto by 35. This time around, Toronto is coming off that heartbreaking loss in Miami last night, and while the idea of "needing" this game probably means Toronto has a motivational edge, I just still can't trust them on the road. Toronto had actually been one of the best teams in the NBA against Miami, and they couldn't sustain the solid play for 4 full quarters when rested, so how are they going to do it on a back-to-back? We all know about Toronto's pedestrian 4-13 ATS record on back-to-back games, so it's tough to see them really getting amped and being able to sustain it. My guess is that this game plays out the way so many others have featuring a team off a tough loss. Toronto comes out very slow, has a run in them in the 3rd, then runs out of gas for real late. Charlotte is coming off 3 pretty easy games with Washington and Minnesota, so I expect them to be well-prepared and come out strong. Lean to Charlotte. Toronto gives up a ton of points on the back-to-back, but I'm just not sure Charlotte takes advantage - they know a slow game is their bread and butter, and I happen to think this one gets played exactly the same as yesterday's - SLIGHT lean to the Under.
Spurs @ Nets - San Antonio by 8.5 with a total of 193. This is a trademark letdown spot for the Spurs, coming off a huge game with Boston, and a well-played game with Boston that marks something of a respite between hotly contested games. Again, Spurs have played against the Hawks, Thunder, Lakers, Cavs and Celtics before this one with Jersey. Then they go back to the Rockets, Magic and Lakers again. If you want to talk about a "Sandwich Game", this has to be the example. We know Duncan's legs don't hold up well on back-to-back, and we know the Spurs try to slow things down when they're feeling sleepy. Is this one of those games where the Nets feel like they have a good shot to remove themselves from infamy? It seems like the Nets have a few games on their schedule circled as potential winners, and knowing the Spurs are playing on no rest and coming off a game against the rough-n-tough Celtics, I have to think we get New Jersey's best effort. Yes, the Spurs are playing some decent basketball, winning, basically, every other game against some of the best teams in the League, and if they can get through this gauntlet near .500, I'm sure they'll be pleased, since the rest of the way won't be as tough. The Spurs are an even 7-7 ATS on back-to-backs, but 4-9 O/U, so we know that trend, and Jersey seems to be willing to play at whatever tempo the opponent dictates. I lean to Jersey, though they're not inspiring all kinds of confidence. I also lean to the Under, since Jersey has no identity, so we'll go with the Spurs' flavor to control the game.
Lakers @ Hornets - Los Angeles by 5.5 with a total of 201.5. This is a bit of an odd game, since I wonder if this is one of those spots where Chris Paul wakes up and tries to make an impact. So far this year the Hornets have been spanked twice in Los Angeles (though they did cover in the second meeting as 15-point underdogs), but now they get LA at home. The Lakers are coming off a pretty easy win over the Rockets, where the subs made things a little interesting, but Houston never really had a chance. I'm a little torn on whether the Lakers are in playoff tune-up mode, or whether they're just playing out the next few, trying to get some key guys a little more rest than usual, and that makes it very tough to wager on a Lakers side. I get the feeling the Hornets are going to want to put on a show in front of the fans, that, while New Orleans is indeed out of the playoff picture, will want to come out and see a Kobe versus CP3 duel, and it might very well turn out to be a fun one. The Hornets still aren't playing much in the way of defense, but the Lakers haven't really been all that set on running lately, either. This one is all kinds of crazy, and while I could potentially try to squeeze some sort of lean out of this one, neither team is in a particularly good or bad spot, so I'd advise avoiding the side. The total of 201.5 looks pretty high, if indeed the Lakers try to play some defense. I have a microscopic lean to the Under, but again, be very, very careful with this game in particular.
Nuggets @ Mavericks - Dallas by 5 with a total of 211. Dallas comes home off a 1-1 quickie road trip through Portland and Golden State, and riding a little wave of momentum courtesy of Rodrigue Beaubois. But this game isn't going to be the cake-walk that the contest with the Warriors was. Denver is a quality team, and they're coming to town off a tough loss in Orlando yesterday. Make no mistake, too - Denver is struggling a bit right now. They've not-so-quietly lost 4 of 5 games, including one last night and they've really never looked all that reliable on back-to-back games. That would be a pretty good explanation for why the can't-win-at-home Mavericks are laying 5 points to the high-flying Nuggets. This is also the last game of a 5-game road trip for the Nuggets before they head home to host the division rival Portland Trailblazers, and this is also their 5th game in 7 days. I was wondering if the game with Orlando would be the contest to wake them up, but it didn't seem to be. Can we trust Dallas at home? It's questionable, but in this particular spot, I have to lean in their direction. Denver killed Dallas the last time they met, too, so I think Dallas is going to come ready to prove something, and try to get some of that home court moxie going as we near the playoffs. Lean to Dallas. The total of 211 is monstrous, but Dallas's defense hasn't been all that impressive lately, either. I happen to think this one is pretty close to spot on, though we might stay Under by a bucket or two.
Knicks @ Jazz - Utah by 11.5 with a total of 213.5. Situationally, this game favors the Knicks. Motivationally, it favors the Jazz. When you add it all together, it basically comes out as a no-play. Let's take a closer peek, but I don't think anything we find is going to change that. The Knicks are coming off a hideous loss in Phoenix, so the value is probably on their side. Utah is coming off a road clubbing of the Wizards, and is set to play their first game at home after a 3-game road trip. Not a true sluggish spot, but partially there. They host the Warriors next, so it's not a look-ahead, but these two home games are sort of "gimmies" for the Jazz, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them try to coast through before heading to LA to face the Lakers. The Knicks are on the second game of a long road trip, and we've talked quite a bit about how tough it is for teams with nothing to play for to head out on a long roadie at this stage of the season. This game is just too volatile, in my opinion, to warrant a play on the side. A lot of games are too volatile at this stage of the season, really. As far as the total goes, I'm not 100% sure what the Knicks are trying to do these days. They seem to alternate struggling to crack 95, then 110. Is it worth taking a chance that they lay an egg and bet the over? Is it worth taking a chance that they come out firing and bet the over? This one is a wash, as far as I'm concerned. If I had to really make any kind of call on the game, I guess I'd say Jazz to squeeze out a cover and stay slightly Under, but those are only to be used in extremely dire circumstances.
Trend Report - Monday
By Ed Meyer
Raptors at Bobcats – The Bobcats are 8-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since January 16, 2008 at home after a win in which their DPA was positive. The Bobcats are 0-6 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since February 06, 2009 at home when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they led at the half.
Lakers at Hornets – The Lakers are 0-6 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since February 27, 2009 on the road when they scored at least 25 more points in their previous game than in the game before. The Hornets are 0-9 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since April 13, 2009 after a game at home in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Hornets are 0-9 ATS (-5.6 ppg) since January 15, 2010 with at least one day of rest after a game at home in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.
Knicks at Jazz – The Knicks are 10-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since February 07, 2005 versus the Jazz. The Knicks are 9-0 ATS (6.7 ppg) since April 06, 2000 with two or more days of rest after a double digit road loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Jazz are 7-0-1 ATS (6.1 ppg) since April 07, 1997 at home after a double digit road win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.
Nuggets at Mavericks – The Mavericks are 11-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since June 18, 2006 when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they were out-rebounded by double-digits. The Mavericks are 0-8 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since May 29, 2003 at home with at most one day of rest after a double digit road win in which their DPA was minus 15 points or less.
Spurs at Nets – The Spurs are 9-0 ATS (8.5 ppg) since June 08, 2003 on the road versus the Nets. The Nets are 0-10 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since February 25, 2005 at home after a double digit loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.
Tips and Trends
Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Hornets
Lakers (-5.5, O/U 201.5): Los Angeles has won 9 of their past 10 games SU, as they are clearly gearing up for postseason play. The Lakers are attempting to play better team defense, as they've held 5 of their past 6 opponents under 100 PTS. The Lakers have a veteran team, which is important in the scenario they are in. The Lakers have little incentive to play well right now, as they have all but locked up the #1 seed in the Western Conference and are highly unlikely to catch Cleveland for the overall best record. The Lakers are 54-19 SU and 31-39-3 ATS overall this season. The Lakers are 22-14 SU and 16-19-1 ATS in road games this season. Los Angeles is a losing proposition as the listed favorite, going 27-33 ATS this season. More specifically, the Lakers are 5-7 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 PTS this season. While the Lakers have been winning game after game SU, Los Angeles is only 9-16 ATS in the 2nd half of the season thus far. The Lakers offense got back on track in their last game, scoring 109 PTS after being held under 100 PTS in their 3 previous contests. G Kobe Bryant is 4th in the NBA in scoring, averaging 27.1 PPG this season in leading the Lakers.
Lakers are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 13-3 last 16 road games vs. a team with a home winning % greater than .600.
Key Injuries - F Ron Artest (ankle) is probable.
C Andrew Bynum (achilles) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 108 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Hornets: New Orleans certainly appears to be one of "those" teams that have already quit on their season. New Orleans has lost 5 of their past 6 games SU by double digits. In March alone, the Hornets are 3-12 both SU and ATS. Making matters worse is the fact the Hornets were eliminated from postseason play after their most recent game. This discomforting play has put a damper on the return of PG Chris Paul. Arguably the best point guard in the NBA, Paul has been rusty in his return thus far averaging 7 PPG while shooting 38% from the field. New Orleans is 34-40 SU and 33-40-1 ATS overall this season. The Hornets are 22-14 SU and 15-21 ATS in home games this season. The Hornets are 24-23 ATS as the listed underdog this season, including 4-3 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 6 PTS. New Orleans will be looking for revenge today, as they are trying to avoid being swept by the Lakers this season. New Orleans has lost both games by double digits to the Lakers this season, allowing 107 PPG in their 2 defeats. Rookie Guards Darren Collison and Marcus Thornton have been the bright spots for the Hornets this season, so look for even more minutes from this duo as the regular season comes to a close.
Hornets 1-6 ATS last 7 home games.
Under is 6-2 last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Key Injuries - F Peja Stojakovic (abdominal) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 101