Monday's Best basketball Bets
Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings (4, 216.5)
The Houston Rockets are knocking on the door of a playoff spot by reeling off six straight up wins over their last seven games.
Houston hammered Indiana 112-95 on Saturday, pulling within 2½ games of eighth spot that the Pacers currently hold in the Western Conference.
"If we were in the East, we'd be in the playoffs right now," guard Courtney Lee told reporters. "In the West, it's a little different. If we play like that, we prove we're capable of making the playoffs. We have to keep pushing and getting wins."
Houston covered as a 6.5-point favorite against Indiana and has cashed in four times over its current hot streak. The Rockets have won three straight against the Kings and covered in each of those victories.
Meanwhile, Sacramento has won just once over the last nine games.
Pick: Rockets
Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic (-3, 183.5)
The Trail Blazers catch a break on Monday as Orlando will be without Dwight Howard, who will serve a one-game suspension after picking up his 16th technical foul of the season during Friday’s loss to the Bulls.
Portland pounded Charlotte 93-69 as an 11-point favorite on Saturday, taking advantage of the Bobcats, who were without leading scorer Stephen Jackson as he sat out with a hamstring injury. It took a while for Portland to get going, but the club started hitting some shots in the second half and now needs to build on that as the club heads out on a four-game road trip.
“There are some tough games, but some winnable games,” Gerald Wallace told reporters. “We just have to start out with the first one. If we take care of Orlando, everything else will take care of itself.”
The Trail Blazers are at Miami, Charlotte and Atlanta following Monday’s game. They’ll come out swinging against the Magic.
Pick: Trail Blazers
Magic host Blazers without Howard
By: Michael Robinson
The Orlando Magic will have a donut-sized hole in the middle when they host the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday night.
Center Dwight Howard will miss this contest after picking up his 16th technical foul this season. That carries an automatic one-game suspension.
The Magic (40-23 straight-up, 29-33-1 against the spread) remade their roster with two December trades that brought Gilbert Arenas, Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson and Earl Clark to the Land of Mickey Mouse for Rashard Lewis, Vince Carter, Mickael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat.
That trade has been more good than bad overall, 16-10 SU (9-17 ATS) before and 24-13 SU (20-16-1 ATS) after. The only glaring hole now is a backup for their star center.
Howard is ninth in the league in scoring (23.1 PPG) and second in rebounds (13.9 RPG) and blocked shots (2.31 per game). This is the first game he’s missed since backup Gortat was traded and he’s also averaged more than 40 minutes per game since Feb. 1.
Howard and Orlando had a four-game winning streak snapped Friday at home against Chicago (89-81 as two-point favorites). The tired Magic fell short on another comeback after storming back from a 24-point deficit the night before in Miami (99-96 win).
The 170 combined points scored against Chicago went way ‘under’ the 190-point total. The ‘under’ is 11-2 in Orlando’s last 13 games (7-2 at home).
Orlando is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last four games following a defeat.
Coach Stan Van Gundy doesn’t have a lot of good big man options for Monday. Brandon Bass and Ryan Anderson will likely start up front, but neither has the size and strength to defend opposing centers. Everyone will have to pick up the scoring slack.
The Trail Blazers (35-27 SU, 30-29-3 ATS) currently sit in sixth place in the Western Conference (Orlando is fourth in the East), but certainly aren’t guaranteed a playoff spot. This is the first of a four-game Southeast Division swing.
This snakebitten franchise continues to reinvent itself. The latest move was acquiring small forward Gerald Wallace from Charlotte for center Joel Przybilla, forward Dante Cunningham and two first round picks.
Portland is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS since the trade was announced. Wallace has played in four of them, all off the bench (averaging 10.5 PPG).
The Trail Blazers are 2-0 SU and ATS in their last two. They beat decimated Charlotte (Wallace’s old squad) 93-69 as 11-point home favorites last Saturday. Marcus Camby is back starting at center after some injuries, but they’re thin up front without Przybilla and Cunningham.
Leading scorer LaMarcus Aldridge (22.3 PPG) could shift to center in a smaller starting lineup with Wallace, Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews and Andre Miller. That could work well against Orlando with Howard out.
Former star guard Brandon Roy can’t be counted on game-to-game with his perpetual knee problems.
Portland is 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in its last five road games (14-17 SU and 14-14-3 ATS for the year). The ‘over’ is 4-1 in those games.
These teams met back in December in the Pacific Northwest. The Trail Blazers won 97-83 as 2 ½-point home underdogs. Howard dominated down low (39 points) despite the loss, while Aldridge was just 5-of-15 for 14 points.
Portland is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Orlando.
Tip-off will be 4 p.m. (PT) from Amway Center. Portland has a tough back-to-back in Miami on Tuesday, while Orlando starts a five-game trip out West in Sacramento on Wednesday.
NBA Previews
By Dan Bebe
Los Angeles Clippers @ Charlotte Bobcats (-2.5) with a total of 189.5
Eric Gordon's return was short-lived, as a face-smashing foul from Timofey Mosgov sent Gordon to the deck, and in his effort to brace himself Gordon reinjured his wrist, this time creating bone chips. Unfortunately, his outside game made the Clippers a decent team, and his absence is going to hurt them quite a bit. I'm interested, though, to find out if Mo Williams' shooting can help cover for Gordon, and if Chris Kaman's slow return to full strength can make up for some of Gordon's lost points. This is a fairly neutral spot for the Clippers, all things considered - the start of a 5 game road trip is usually a spot to play hard, but the loss of their key cog is a potential letdown. The real note on this game is that Charlotte had only 1 day between games in Portland and back home. If Charlotte wasn't playing so horribly, and most of the value wasn't already sucked out of the game by the Bobcats poor play, I'd be inclined to fade them coming home off an extended western swing. And yes, when I say the value is sucked out, I'm referring to the fact that by the mid-evening on Sunday, this line is down to 1.5 already. Slight lean to CLIPPERS and the UNDER.
Portland Trailblazers @ Orlando Magic (-3) with a total of 188.5
Red alert! Dwight Howard is suspended for this game, so don't go throwing your life savings on the Magic before taking note of that fact. And let's face it, the Injured Star Theory might apply a little, but I'm not really sure the Magic are much of a team without Howard in the middle and without Gortat backing him up. This is the start of a 4-game trip for the Blazers through the Southeast, and I'm tempted to say that this is a good spot to pass altogether. Portland is playing off a long day of travel, and though they're still putting together marginally decent ball, if Orlando's non-Howardians step up, Portland could be in a little bit of a tired spot. On top of that, the Blazers play in Miami tomorrow. What we HAVE seen this year, though, is that teams have a tendency to cover one of the two games in the Florida two-step then get blown out in the other, and though I don't have to stats offhand, I tend to think the first of the two games is a bit more energetic. Another problem with taking Portland is that Orlando got blasted in Oregon back in December, so the non-Howard roster might use that as some fuel, and might play a little above themselves to show their team leader that if he gets flagrantly whacked, lashes out and gets suspended for picking up a T, they can hold it together for one game. We shall see. Microscopic, smallest of leans to ORLANDO and the OVER.
Utah Jazz @ New York Knicks with a total of N/A
New York just can't beat Cleveland, but fortunately for the Knicks, they shouldn't have to deal with that issue for a little bit. Here, New York should be a decent sized favorite over a struggling Jazz team that did get a win over the Kings in OT, but still looked far from convincing. Paul Millsap was hurt in that win, and while Devin Harris is settling in fairly well and the Jazz are starting to slow things down and run some offensive sets, the team is still lacking in...something. It's tough to pinpoint the exact issue with Utah - certainly, the defense could use some work, and the shot-making, and the rebounding...nothing is completely broken, but nothing is quite right, either. I'd love to back Utah and claim it's a value play, but I don't have the trust to do it, and New York is, against everyone besides the Cavs, actually playing some defense. The Knicks are in a back-to-back off a win on Sunday early evening in Atlanta, so there may be some slight fatigue, but I don't think it's an issue, really. Very small lean to the KNICKS and the UNDER.
New Orleans Hornets @ Chicago Bulls with a total of N/A
Just as we noted a few days back, the Hornets would, just when the bettor least expects it, figure something out, turn "it" on for a few games, and then probably slip back into semi-mediocrity for another short while. Where are we on that curve? Well, "curve" is the right word for it, considering Chris Paul suffered a head injury in the Hornets' win over the Cavs, and was taken off in a stretcher. New Orleans has won 2 straight, so I'd argue we're somewhere in the middle-to-end portion of a hotter streak, and that makes me think there might be some value on the Hornets, since the two wins have been, let's say, a shade under the radar. On the other side, the Bulls' wins have been anything but off the radar - Chicago went 4-1 on a rough Milwaukee-Washington-Southeastern road trip, including marquee TV wins over the Heat and Magic. The Bulls stock has never been higher, which, for those unfamiliar with stocks, is when you consider selling. There's the possibility the stock could inch a tiny bit more into the stratosphere, but we're right around that cusp, and with the Hornets having lost to the Bulls at home a month back and Chris Paul playing with a little more purpose, I think we might just get a slightly chunky line - lean to the HORNETS and the OVER.
Dallas Mavericks (-6.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves with a total of 209
This game is zero fun to handicap. The Mavericks dropped a heartbreaker to the Grizzlies on Sunday evening after being well ahead at the half. The Wolves won in Detroit to start their short 3-game trip, then fell in Philadelphia (in a game that, frankly, they should have covered - Rambis is dead to me) and Washington. Now back home, the Wolves have had a day to rest up, and Darko Milicic is supposed to return to the team to provide just a small measure of interior shotblocking. It's not much, but it's more than Pekovic can do. In essence, I don't want to back either team, but when you look at the situational angles, a Dallas team that had a long win streak snapped in dramatic fashion traveling a pretty fair distance to a place where the Mavs have very little to gain makes me lean just a bit to the MINNESOTA side, against the nausea it causes, and the OVER.
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Memphis Grizzlies (-2) with a total of 203
Both teams played yesterday, but only one of the two teams went to OT, and that was the Thunder. Oklahoma had to go an extra 5 minutes with the Suns, while the Grizzlies staged a tremendous comeback win over the Mavericks. My issue with this game is as follows: the Grizzlies lead the season series 2 games to 1, so the Thunder should want to win this one to exert some sort of dominance; the Grizzlies won the last meeting in Oklahoma City only a month ago, so, again, the Thunder should want some revenge; both teams expended a ton of energy yesterday, with the Thunder going to OT and the Grizzlies needing a huge run to beat the Mavs. So, I ask you all, what's the point? Why take a stab at which team comes to play when either team could just as easily lay an egg? I think the one key point worth remembering is that Memphis winning 2 of 3 isn't a fluke. The Grizzlies have dominated the paint against the slightly undersized Thunder, and if they stick to that plan, they could win again. If the Thunder want it more and still have something in the tank off yesterday's tough game, they might pull off the upset. Too many "mights" for my liking. Gun to head lean to THUNDER and the UNDER.
Houston Rockets (-4) @ Sacramento Kings with a total of 216.5
I'm not sure I'm on board with the Rockets laying a medium-sized number on the road, even with how hot they've been. Houston has definitely been kicking some serious butt the last few weeks, polishing off Indiana handily in their most recent game, but given Houston is 2-0 against the Kings already this year, including a win at Arco in December, and the Kings are finding ways to cover thanks to some renewed energy in DeMarcus Cousins, I could see the Kings surprising the Rockets. Of course, the flip side of that coin is that the Kings have a rich history (or at least 2 years of history) of hanging tough for 45 minutes only to get blasted in the final 3. Or, hell, maybe hang tough for 50 minutes, as was the case in Utah, in a game they barely covered even catching 8 in OT. I think the best course of action is to see how this game goes and react accordingly on Tuesday - the Rockets have to travel from Sacramento to Phoenix for a 1-hour-earlier run-run-run game with the Suns, and though I expect Aaron Brooks and Goran Dragic to play hard against their old teams in THAT game, it's a spot where the Suns should be able to take advantage of the Rockets, if and only if the Kings can do their part to exhaust Houston, just a little. Teeny, tiny lean to HOUSTON, amazingly, on the side, just because I think they sneak over the cover by a bucket, and the UNDER.