NBA News and Notes Monday 3/8

San Antonio (36-24, 29-30-1 ATS) at Cleveland (49-15, 32-31-1 ATS)

The Spurs take aim at their fifth straight victory when they visit the Quicken Loans Arena to face the Cavaliers.

San Antonio’s four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) features road wins in New Orleans a week ago and in Memphis on Saturday, the latter being a 102-92 victory as a one-point pup. The Spurs’ victory over the Grizzlies was costly, though, as Tony Parker broke a bone in his hand and is expected to be sidelined for six weeks. San Antonio is just 14-14 on the highway this season, but has covered in just 12 of those 28 contests.

Cleveland had its six-game winning streak (4-2 ATS) snapped on Saturday in Milwaukee, losing 92-85 as a 3 ½-point ‘dog. Without LeBron James in the lineup, the Cavs struggled offensively, going just 34-for-77 from the field. James missed the game with an ankle injury but is expected to play tonight. The Cavaliers are 27-4 at Quicken Loans Arena this season, but have struggled to cash in front of the home fans, going just 13-18 ATS.

The Cavaliers have won three of the last four meetings (SU and ATS) with the Spurs and cashed in four of the last five. In last year’s battle in Cleveland, the Cavs scored a 101-80 blowout win as a six-point favorite. Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups in Ohio, and the chalk has cashed in six of the last eight clashes overall. Finally, the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 in this rivalry.

San Antonio is on ATS skids of 0-5 after a day off, 1-6 against Eastern Conference teams and 8-21 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600, but it is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 Monday outings. Cleveland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home and 1-4 ATS after its last five non-covers, but it is on positive pointspread runs of 11-5 against Southwest Division teams, 9-4 after a day off and 37-15-1 on Monday.

For the Spurs, the over has cashed in four of five on the road and four straight after they get a day off, but otherwise they’re on “under” streaks of 8-3-1 against Eastern Conference teams and 4-1 on Monday. The Cavaliers have stayed below the total in four of five against Southwest Division teams, but they’ve topped the total in eight of 12 home games and nine of 14 overall.

In this series, the under is 3-1-1 in the last five matchups in Cleveland.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND

Monday's NBA Tips
By Brian Edwards

Gamblers have five NBA games on Monday’s card. Let’s take an in-depth look at the meetings between the Cavs-Spurs and Hawks-Knicks before touching on the three other contests in Bonus Nuggets.

**Spurs at Cavaliers**

There was no overnight line for this game due to the uncertain status of LeBron James and Daniel Gibson for the Cavs. James (ankle) missed his first game of the season Saturday at Milwaukee. The injury isn’t considered too serious and there’s no doubt James would’ve been in uniform if it were the postseason. James averages 30.0 points, 8.5 assists and 7.2 rebounds per game. Gibson, who averages 6.9 PPG, has missed three straight games due to the birth of his son.

Without The King, Cleveland (49-15 straight up, 32-31-2 against the spread) went down Saturday against the Bucks by a 93-86 count. Milwaukee took the cash as a 3 ½-point favorite. Antawn Jamison enjoyed his best game with the Cavs since coming over from Washington before the trading deadline. The UNC product finished with 30 points, 11 rebounds and five steals.

San Antonio (36-24 SU, 29-30-1 ATS) suffered a crushing blow Friday when veteran point guard Tony Parker broke a bone in his hand that’s expected to keep him out of the lineup for about six weeks.

Gregg Popovich’s club has won four in a row, including Saturday’s 102-92 win at Memphis as a one-point road underdog. Richard Jefferson led six Spurs in double figures with 18 points on 7-of-11 shooting from the field. Manu Ginobli added 17 points and six assists, while Matt Bonner went for 13 points and five boards while posting a plus-minus rating of +28.

San Antonio is 14-14 SU and 12-16 ATS on the road. Cleveland has a 27-4 SU record but is only 13-18 versus the number at home.

Mike Brown’s team has a five-game advantage over Orlando for the top postseason seed in the Eastern Conference. The Cavs are three games ahead of the Lakers for homecourt throughout the playoffs.

The ‘over’ is 31-30-3 overall for the Cavs, 16-14-1 in their home games. As for the Spurs, they have watched the ‘under’ go 32-27-1 overall, 17-11 in their road assignments.

NBA-TV will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Hawks at Knicks**

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Atlanta (40-22 SU, 36-26 ATS) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 210. As of early this morning, most betting shops had the Hawks favored by six with a 210 ½-point tally. The Knicks are plus-220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).

Mike Woodson’s team is looking to avenge back-to-back losses to the Knicks as a double-digit home favorite. Twice New York went into Philips Arena and won outright while catching a double-digit number. Mike D’Antoni’s squad won a 112-108 decision in overtime on New Year’s Day. Nate Robinson erupted for 41 points, eight assists and six rebounds to lead his former team past the Hawks. Back on Dec. 4, the Knicks won 114-107 at Atlanta as 10 ½-point road underdogs. Chris Duhon had 25 points and 10 assists in that meeting.

New York (21-41 SU, 28-34 ATS) is 13-21 SU and 15-19 ATS at home this year. Meanwhile, the Hawks are 15-15 SU and 17-13 ATS on the road.

Atlanta saw its four-game winning streak snapped Saturday night in Miami, where the Heat rallied for a 100-94 comeback win as a two-point home favorite. Dwyane Wade torched the Hawks for 38 points, 10 assists and just one turnover. In the losing effort, Jamal Crawford had 24 points, seven rebounds and three assists.

The Knicks are going to miss the playoffs for the sixth straight season. Call it the Isiah Jinx if you like. They are coming off the worst 3-point shooting night in NBA history in Friday’s horrifying 113-93 home loss to the woeful Nets. D’Antoni’s bunch missed all 18 of its attempts from beyond the arc against New Jersey. David Lee had a team-high 23 points in defeat.

Atlanta is currently in fourth place in the East, three games back of Orlando for the second seed and one-half game behind Boston for the third slot.

When these teams met at Madison Square Garden back on Nov. 11, Atlanta captured a 114-101 win as a five-point road favorite. Al Horford was the catalyst for the winners, scoring 25 points and pulling down nine rebounds. Josh Smith added 22 points and 12 boards.

New York has seen the ‘under’ go 32-30 overall, 17-17 in its home games at MSG. However, the ‘over’ is on an 11-3 run in the Knicks’ last 14 outings (regardless of venue).

The ‘over’ is 36-25-1 overall for the Hawks, 15-14-1 in their road games.

The ‘over’ is 8-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between the Knicks and Hawks. Going back even further, the ‘over’ is on a 20-6 run the last 26 encounters.

Tip-off is scheduled for 7:35 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

Nice work on Kobe Bryant by Orlando’s Matt Barnes in the Magic’s 96-94 win Sunday. I hate when players kiss Kobe’s ass and like Raja Bell and James Posey, Barnes never does that. The UCLA product, a would-be member of my All Neck-Ink Squad (if I had one), knocked down a clutch three at crunch time and defended Bryant extremely well on a potential tying bucket at the buzzer. The Magic were well ahead of the number late in the fourth quarter, only to allow the Lakers to garner a push with their late rally.

With 40 wins going into tonight’s tilt at MSG, Atlanta is on the verge of hooking up ‘over’ backers (like me) on its season win total. That number was 44 ½ at most books.

As of early this morning, most books were listing the Hornets as seven-point home favorites vs. Golden St. New Orleans might be without rookie shooting guard Marcus Thornton, who has been instant offense off the bench all year. The LSU product, who is averaging 12.6 PPG, is "questionable" with a back injury. The Warriors are at the end of five-game road trip in this spot. They have lost the four previous games while compiling a respectable 2-2 spread mark.

Dallas plays at Minnesota tonight as a seven-point road ‘chalk.’ The Mavs might be without recently acquired center Brendan Haywood, who is listed as “questionable” with a back injury.

As of early this morning, most spots had Memphis as a nine-point favorite for tonight's home game vs. New Jersey. The Grizzlies are mired in a 1-7 ATS slide in their eight home games.

vegasinsider.com

NBA RoundUp For 3/8
By Dan Bebe

Spurs @ Cavaliers - This line is OFF. For once, I'll go ahead and give the books an "okay" on keeping the line off. Is Lebron going to play? That question not only makes this game impossible to set a line for, but also impossible to handicap. Is there anyone else in the NBA that has this kind of impact on everything we're trying to do with a game? It almost doesn't matter who is doing what and which team is in what sort of situational spot, as long as we have no idea what Lebron James is doing. Let's go ahead and handicap this game as if he's playing, since we just don't know how the Cavs can handle themselves without him, and if he takes the night off, so will we (on this game). The Spurs have quietly won 4 games in a row, covering the most recent 3. The Cavs are, well, the Cavs, so with Lebron we know we're going to get a strong effort, but we also know that they're going to be slightly overvalued. If Lebron plays, amazingly, I lean to San Antonio. If he doesn't play, I lean to the Cavs. I know that sounds nuts, but with Lebron out, the line is going to get a monster adjustment, and the non-Lebrons are going to be much stronger on their home court, trying to play pick-me-up for their fallen hero. With Lebron in there, I think the Spurs continue to try to make their trademark late-season push and probably keep this game relatively close. I hope that makes some kind of sense. This is an important game for San Antonio, but I think they lose some of their motivation with Lebron out. The total is impacted quite a bit by his presence, as well. Let's just wait and see, shall we?

Hawks @ Knicks - Atlanta by 6 with a total of 210.5. This is a strange match-up, if mostly because New York has beaten Atlanta twice this year, both times on the road. Atlanta beat New York here at Madison Square Garden in the teams' first meeting, so the home team has yet to win a game. I'll admit, I don't have a strong read on the Hawks. Atlanta won 4 in a row before losing their last game in Miami on Saturday, but they haven't been much for covering spreads. They're just 7-12 ATS in their last 19 games, and laying 6 points on the road seems like a dangerous proposition. These teams haven't met since New Year's Day, so I don't know how helpful it would be to look at the previous meetings for any reason other than the idea that the Hawks are likely going to want to win another one in MSG. The Knicks have been awful lately, winning just 2 of their last 14 games, though to our credit, we picked up a winner on one of those 2 wins. I'm honestly just not sure this is the right spot to back them, again. You guys know how much I would love to tell you to play the home dog getting 6 points, but with Atlanta presumably on some sort of revenge, and the Knicks just playing downright awful basketball, this is a game where I'd avoid the hugely public Hawks, but I'd also avoid the stinktacular Knicks. No lean on the side. The total looks pretty high considering how poorly the Knicks have performed on offense against any team with the energy to defend them, and my bigger concern is that the Hawks score 115. Still, I think Atlanta wins this one with a total just over 200, and hence, I lean to the Under.

Nets @ Grizzlies - Memphis by 9 with a total of 195.5. This line is all kinds of crazy! These teams played just 2 weeks ago, and Jersey was getting 6 points on their home court. So, have the Grizzlies really fallen that far, that the line would only move 3 points between venues? Unfortunately, it seems folks are starting to catch on that Memphis can't win at home, and Jersey is a covering machine on the road. This line is also interesting in that Memphis beat Jersey by 10 on the road in that game. So, instead of moving the line the normal 6 points between home and road venues, it was shifted only 3. I'm having a tough time wrapping my head around this line. It seems like the value that should have been on the Nets just isn't quite there. Believe me, as was the case in the game above, I would love to tell you to bet the farm on the underdog, but under most circumstances, the Nets should be getting double digits here, and I can't, for the life of me, figure out why oddsmakers feel so comfortable bringing this number out at just 9. I have to admit, this game is making me rethink my feelings on traps. If the oddsmaker's goal was to get split action on every game, either they believe the public has caught on to the Nets solid road ATS play, or that the public is fed up with betting Memphis, because there's little doubt in my mind that one week ago they could have brought this line out at 11, and it wouldn't be a problem. I WILL have a lean on the side, but I just don't have one yet. More work to be done here. For the total, Memphis has been playing a slower paced game at home, and I'm not sure if folks have truly caught on, yet. They haven't broken 100 at home since January 27th, and I know Jersey's defense isn't impressive, but Memphis just isn't scoring on their own floor. I lean Under.

Mavericks @ Timberwolves - Dallas by 7 with a total of 207. Seems like these teams are just playing each other every time you turn your head. They played just 5 days ago in Dallas, the game where the Mavericks decided to rest Jason Kidd, and Minnesota ran the ball like crazy in that one. They pushed Dallas to the limit, and lost by just a final margin of 3, 112-109. Thus, this game becomes a very interesting one - most likely the most interesting game on the card. The power rankings have remained unchanged, as the spread in the last meeting was Dallas by 13. The standard 6-point swing takes us to this game's opening number. No foul play, there. Minnesota played incredible basketball in both games at Dallas this year, but actually looked awful in Dallas's lone visit to Minnesota back in November, losing 89-77. Can the Wolves really shoot 53% for the game AGAIN against the Mavs? I know Dallas's post-All Star Break focus on defense has waned markedly over the last 6 games (Dallas has allowed over 100 points in 5 of those 6 games), and I'm just extremely curious to try to pinpoint the game, or opponent, that is going to wake Dallas up once again. They should be mostly healthy, at least from a defensive standpoint. Obviously the Mavs are going to be without the services of Jason Terry, so that hurts them a tad on offense, but they showed no ill effects in scoring 122 in Chicago. Unfortunately, because both teams have been playing to the over almost religiously there really isn't any value left on the over. I do think there remains a little value on Minnesota, since I think this team has the confidence to play with the Mavericks. They beat them once, and I think the Wolves believe they can do it again, especially if Dallas continues to take possessions off on the defensive end. I lean Minnesota, and I lean Under, since I think this line has been overadjusted.

Warriors @ Hornets - New Orleans by 7 with a total of 214.5. Are the Hornets slowing down as Chris Paul nears his return? It sure looks that way. New Orleans has lost 6 of 7 straight up, and 5 of 6 ATS. Interestingly, the fatigue seems to be setting in on the offensive end of the floor, sort of the opposite of what you'd expect. The Hornets have been trying to force the tempo, and get quick, easy shots with Paul gone, and for a while, it worked. They didn't win a ton of games, but they were competitive, consistently. Now, suddenly, the Hornets are still giving up over 100 points on a nightly basis, but can't seem to quite get there, themselves. The Warriors would seem to be the perfect opponent to put some points on the board. Golden State is in the final game of a grueling 5-day road trip, alternating covers and missed covers, based, not surprisingly, on fatigue. So, here we have to try to balance how badly the Warriors want to get home versus how much they'd like to bounce back from that loss in Charlotte. I think there's something to be said for the fact that New Orleans has won both meetings this year, and the Warriors, while shorthanded, might try to take advantage of a clearly struggling Hornets club starting to miss its superstar and maybe nab a win for some confidence. The Hornets have had 2 days to rest up, so I don't think they'll be taken by surprise here, and it makes me a little nervous about backing the Warriors -- still, this line appears somewhat inflated, since the Hornets haven't laid this sort of chalk since Paul went down, and the Warriors have shown some heart on this road trip, even if the results aren't quite there. I lean Golden State, and I lean Over, since the Warriors aren't going to win a defensive game.

Trend Report - Monday
By Ed Meyer

Spurs at Cavaliers – The Spurs are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since January 15, 2007 on the road with at least one day of rest off a win as a favorite in which their leading scorer for that game had fewer than 20 points. The Spurs are 0-6 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since February 12, 2006 on the road with at least one day of rest after a double digit road win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Cavaliers are 7-0 ATS (5.2 ppg) since March 08, 2008 at home off a road loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak. The Cavaliers are 0-7 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since February 22, 1996 at home with at most one day of rest off a loss that broke at least a five-game winning streak.

Nets at Grizzlies – The Nets are 8-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since January 04, 2001 on the road with at most one day of rest after a road win in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Nets are 7-0-1 ATS (6.8 ppg) since February 21, 1996 on the road after a double digit road win in which their DPA was minus 15 points or less. The Nets are 6-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since January 28, 2005 on the road with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

Warriors at Hornets – The Warriors are 9-0 ATS (9.5 ppg) since February 07, 2005 on the road with at least one day of rest after a double digit road loss in which they shot less than 40% from the field. The Hornets are 0-7 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since December 06, 2005 with two or more days of rest after a game on the road in which less than 40% of their baskets were assisted. The Hornets are 0-7-1 ATS (-4.9 ppg) since January 05, 2005 at home with at least one day of rest after a double digit road loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.

Hawks at Knicks – The Hawks are 0-6 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since January 02, 2009 when seeking revenge for a loss as a favorite in which they allowed at least 50% shooting from the field. The Knicks are 6-0 ATS (3.9 ppg) since January 19, 2009 at home on Monday after playing on Friday and Saturday.

Mavericks at Timberwolves – The Mavericks are 7-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since February 27, 2007 on the road versus the Timberwolves. The Mavericks are 0-7-1 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since December 12, 2009 after a road win in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.