Toronto (38-42, 37-43 ATS) at Detroit (26-54, 33-45-2 ATS)
The Raptors try to bounce back from Sunday’s devastating loss to the Bulls when they travel to the Palace of Auburn Hills for a matchup with the Pistons.
After Sunday’s 104-88 home loss to Chicago as a 2½-point underdog, the Raptors are now one game behind the Bulls with two games remaining in the race for the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Toronto has now dropped five straight (1-4 ATS) and eight of its last 11 (6-5 ATS) overall. One positive: The Raptors have won four of seven on the road (6-1 ATS).
Detroit has followed up an 11-game losing streak by winning three of its last four, and the Pistons have matched a season-best 5-0 ATS run after a 10-game ATS slump. Most recently, Detroit cashed as a 7½-point underdog in Sunday’s 99-95 road loss in Charlotte. In fact, the Pistons’ 5-0 ATS run has all come from the underdog role and includes Wednesday’s 90-88 outright home win over the Hawks as a 5½-point pup. That win snapped a five-game SU and ATS home slide.
The Raptors have won and covered in each of the three head-to-head meetings this season, including a 94-64 blowout victory inside the Palace on Dec. 23, easily cashing as a one-point underdog. The favorite has been the play in nine of the last 11 series clashes, but Toronto’s upset victory on Dec. 23 snapped its 0-4 ATS slide in the Motor City.
Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games and 4-1 ATS in its last five roadies against teams with losing home records, but it is otherwise on pointspread skids of 1-6 against Central Division teams and 7-20 on the second night of a back-to-back. While Detroit has cashed in five straight, it is still on several negative ATS runs, including 1-5 at home, 0-4 on Monday and 8-20-1 against teams with losing records.
For the Raptors, the under has been the play in 36 of 51 Monday contests, but their also on “over” upticks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on the road and 4-1 against Central Division teams. The Pistons have topped the total in seven straight against Atlantic Division squads and nine of 11 against an opponent with a losing record, but they have stayed low in four of five at home. In this series, the under has cashed in five of the last six in Detroit.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Oklahoma City (49-31, 47-33 ATS) at Portland (49-31, 43-35-2 ATS)
Two of the three teams locked in a battle for the sixth seed in the Western Conference hook up at the Rose Garden, as the Thunder visit the Trail Blazers for Northwest Division clash.
Oklahoma City suffered a costly 120-117 loss at Golden State on Sunday, falling as a 7½-point road favorite. The loss dropped the Thunder back into a three-way tie with San Antonio and Portland for the sixth slot in the conference playoff standings. The loser of this game will drop into eighth and face a possible first-round matchup with the defending-champion Lakers.
With Sunday’s loss to the Warriors, the young Thunder have now dropped three of their last four following a four-game winning streak. They’ve also alternated ATS wins and losses in their last six contests. Oklahoma City has also followed up a three-game SU and ATS road winning streak with back-to-back SU and ATS losses on the highway. The winner has covered the spread in each of the Thunder’s last 12 road games.
Hours before the Thunder fell in Golden State, Portland got a much-needed win in Los Angeles, edging the Lakers 91-88 as a 2½-point underdog. The Blazers have now won seven of their last nine overall (6-3 ATS) and six of their last seven inside the Rose Garden (4-3 ATS). Nate McMillan’s team has been playing lock-down defense lately, yielding between 83 and 87 points in four straight games and holding 22 of its last 28 opponents under triple digits.
The road team has won and covered all three meetings between these teams this season, including the Thunder’s 89-77 win as a 1½-point favorite in Portland back on Feb. 9. The Blazers returned the favor in Oklahoma City on March 28, prevailing 92-87 as a four-point pup. Going back to last season, Portland are on a 5-1 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, with the favorite also going 5-1 ATS in the last six.
The Thunder are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven when playing the second night of a back-to-back, but they’re still on several positive ATS runs, including 4-1 on the road, 6-1 on Monday, 20-7 on the road against teams with winning home records and 9-5 against the Western Conference. The Trail Blazers are a whopping 35-16 in their last 51 games playing the second night of a back-to-back (including 14-4 ATS this year), but they’re otherwise on pointspread skids of 2-6 against Northwest Division rivals and 1-5 at home against opponents with a winning home record.
Oklahoma City has stayed below the number in 10 of 12 Monday games and 14 of 19 against winning teams, but it is otherwise on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 6-0 on the road and 6-2-1 on the second night of a back-to-back. Portland has soared past the total in 10 of 14 on the second night of a back-to-back, 12 of 15 on Monday and seven of 10 against division foes, but it is on “under” streaks of 7-3 overall, 7-0 at home against teams with winning road records and 12-2-1 against winning teams.
Finally, the “under” has cashed in 10 of 11 overall in this series (3-0 this year) and four of five in Oregon.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND
NBA RoundUp For 4/12
By Dan Bebe
Heat @ Sixers - Miami by 4 with a total of 193.5. Those 76ers are just a disaster at home, and it looked like Miami started caring again in their win over New York last night. Wade played 37 minutes, so Miami is still trying, and I think they could potentially pass Milwaukee and play Boston instead of Atlanta. How much does that matter? I wouldn't think all that much, so this is one of those games I'd say to just disregard. Gun to my head, tiny lean to Miami to keep the pressure on, and tiny lean to the Over, as I feel like the Heat aren't going to go full tilt and the Sixers should be able to score for at least a half.
Magic @ Pacers - Orlando by 3.5 with a total of 210.5. This one looks too easy to back the Magic, and we know Orlando is still fighting to have a better regular season record than the Lakers in case they meet in the Finals again. Conflicting angles, I'd say, and an Indy team that is playing ultra-strong basketball down the stretch. No lean on the side, lean to the Over on the total, as the Magic aren't going to play strong defense the day after a National TV game with the Cavs.
Wizards @ Knicks - New York by 4.5 with a total of 207.5. The clash of titans. Washington is rested, New York is not; it doesn't matter. PASS!
Raptors @ Pistons - This line is OFF. Toronto must be feeling a tad deflated, and this is one of those games where you absolutely have to read the Raptors beat-writer work and hear some player interviews before pulling the trigger. Find the PULSE of this Toronto team off getting booted out of the playoff picture for the first time in months. Do they bounce back with season-closing wins against Detroit and New York, or wilt? No lean on the side yet, but potentially one coming tomorrow when we do a little more research. Tiny, tiny lean to the Over, as I feel like Toronto takes out some aggression on the offensive end.
Bobcats @ Nets - Charlotte by 5.5 with a total of 191.5. This is insane, but Jersey has won 2 of 3 from Charlotte this year. Do they just match up well? Does Charlotte still care? They're pretty much locked in that 7th spots, so I'd be very, very cautious about backing the Bobcats. Slight lean to Jersey, though this is a game I'd prefer to avoid if there are better options out there. Slight lean to the Over, as I think we get a wildly subpar defensive effort from Charlotte in a game that doesn't really matter.
Hawks @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 1.5 with a total 188. This game is interesting, if only because Atlanta's final 3 games are against both of the teams they might face in the playoffs. Neither team really needs this game, both could use some rest for starters. Atlanta is jockeying with Boston for 3rd or 4th, the Bucks are jockeying with the Heat, and they'll all end up playing each other. Hah. PASS on the side! I might take a peek at the Over on the total, if indeed the teams take this game as lightly as I expect.
Wolves @ Spurs - San Antonio by 14 with a total of 203. San Antonio needs wins down the stretch to avoid the Lakers, but there's no way I'm laying 14 points. In fact, with the Wolves losing by almost 30 last night, this line might even go up a half point. San Antonio has picked on Minnesota this year, winning their 2 previous games by 18 in each. Funny to think that an 18 point win is a narrow cover. No thanks - PASS on the side! The Spurs are scoring well and defending well - this total is accurate. No leans there.
Grizzlies @ Nuggets - This line is OFF. As I recall, Denver was sleepwalking through a game with the Grizzlies about a month ago, then O.J. Mayo felt the need to taunt J.R. Smith, and down went our Game of the Month in March. Ouch! Well, they're meeting again, and now Denver wants a win, Memphis is not involved, and no one really knows what to expect. Memphis won in San Antonio, got pummeled at home by Philadelphia, and now they play in Denver. Memphis is a monster question mark, and so, with passion, I say, PASS on the side. I like the Over on the total here, as Memphis isn't playing any defense, and I think they should be able to score enough to push this one Over, if indeed the number is decent.
Rockets @ Kings - Sacramento by 1.5 with a total of 209. The Kings always play Rick Adelman tough, going 3-0 ATS against Houston this season, and winning 2 of 3 games. Houston is playing better basketball than Sacramento down the stretch here, but I think we're actually getting a little line value based on public perception. Lean to the Kings to get a win on Fan Appreciation Night. Lean to the Under, as I feel like the Kings high-scoring tilt with Dallas and the Phoenix/Houston game last night are going to inflate this total a tad.
Thunder @ Blazers - Portland by 4 with a total of 189. First thing that strikes me is how low this total is set. Well, looking at the previous meetings, none has featured more than 179 total points, so this total isn't so low after all. These teams play slow grinders of games, and I actually like another Under, since I still don't think the public catches on, and if the Thunder play a high-scoring game with Golden State, that might inflate this number another point or so. On the side, Portland will get more rest, but the Thunder should be coming off a less emotional game. Tough call, no lean on the side yet.
Mavericks @ Clippers - This line is OFF. The Clippers actually beat Golden State, but the Mavs are just steamrolling lesser clubs right now. I hate road chalk, you guys know that, but in this particular case, I have to give just the world's tiniest lean to the Mavericks. I'm not betting this game, but I know some of you will insist on fading the Clippers. I'd still say there are better value out there, but what the hey. On the total, the Clippers defense has been pathetic; I'd look at the Over.
Game of the day: Thunder at Trail Blazers
By Nick Parsons.
There is one common goal amongst the logjam of teams in the Western Conference playoff scene. Everyone wants to avoid the Lakers in the first round.
Tonight's game will go along way in determining which team draws the short straw.
Portland won at L.A. on Sunday and crawled out of eighth place for the time being. The Thunder are eyeing the fifth seed but could slip all the way to eighth in the final week of play
Brandon Roy questionable
Despite the Trail Blazers' win on Sunday the most important aspect of the game was a knee injury suffered by star guard Brandon Roy.
Roy appeared to have banged his right knee with about 4:30 minutes left in the first quarter and then was seen flexing the knee. He left the game and returned later with a sleeve on it but played only a minute more before leaving for good.
Roy had a meniscus tear in his right knee that forced him to miss parts of his junior year at Washington and had left knee surgery in August of 2008.
Roy has already been sitting out practices with a sore back and may get the night off tonight.
Season series
The road team has won all three games in the series this year and each game has gone under. Nine of the past 10 meetings between the two teams have gone under.
Putting the D in OKC
The Thunder learned a lesson in the past week after blowing leads in two games that resulted in losses. On Friday they nearly did it again but then held Phoenix to just 12 points in the third quarter to snap the skid.
While Thunder coach Scott Brooks refuses to dwell on the past he said he talked about the team's costly defensive lapses. Utah scored 140 points against OKC in an overtime win.
"We play forward," Brooks said. "I have a philosophy, 'We play forward.' We talked about it after the game. We talk about it when we look at film, and then we move on. We learn something from every game.
"We can't run with the Phoenix Suns. We can't expect it to be a jump-shot contest. They're going to beat us in that game more times than not. We have to make them miss and not (be) hoping that they miss."
Closing in on the scoring title
Kevin Durant is on track to becoming the youngest player in NBA history to win the season scoring title. Durant scored 35 points in the win Friday over Phoenix to raise his average to 30.
His competition, LeBron James is averaging 29.7 but the King has sat out three straight games to rest up for the playoffs and he may not play again until they start.
Durant doesn't seem to care about the title.
"I keep telling you it doesn't matter (if I win it)," Durant said. "It's cool to be a part of it... but we've got to compete and win these last few games. Scoring is something I'm not really concerned about because it's going to come within the offense. I'm not going to force anything and continue to play my game."
Suns coach Alvin Gentry said Durant deserves the title.
"You just can't guard him. Nobody can guard him," he said. "Nobody has guarded him this year."
Sun or Thunder?
Gentry and All-Star point guard Steve Nash both said the Thunder will be a tough out in the playoffs.
"These guys could easily win a series and it doesn't matter whether they're (seeded) eighth, sixth or seventh or fourth," Gentry said. "They're playing great basketball."
Said Nash: "I see them as a very dangerous team. Their main guys have now played enough basketball that the deer-in-the-headlights situation isn't really accurate as it may be with other squads. They're ready. They're battle tested."
Trend-setting
The Thunder has made a lot of noise straight up and against the spread on the road this season. They headed into Sunday night's game with 23 road wins after winning 23 total games last year.
The Thunder are 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.
On the negative side, the Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero day's rest.
In contrast, the Trail Blazers are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games playing on zero day's rest.
The Trail Blazers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
The under is 14-3-2 in the Thunder's last 19 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
The under is 7-0 in Trail Blazers last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
The under is 12-2-1 in Trail Blazers last 15 vs. a team with a winning SU record and 11-3 in Portland's last 14 home games.
Injury report
As previously mentioned, Roy is questionable after leaving Sunday's game with a knee injury. Seldom used power forward Jeff Pendergraph also missed the game with an illness. He is also questionable.
Oklahoma City's starting center Nenad Krstic was questionable entering Sunday night's game against Phoenix with a right knee contusion. Reserve forward Nick Collison has started in his place and Serge Ibaka, a rookie from the Congo, has played well lately.
Trend Report - Monday
By Ed Meyer
Hawks at Bucks – The Hawks are 9-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since December 30, 2005 after a game on the road in which they shot at least 50% from the field and at least 85% from the free-throw line. The Bucks are 10-0 ATS (13.8 ppg) since January 23, 2010 when facing a team they beat in their previous same-season match-up and they have a revenge game next.
Mavericks at Clippers – The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS (-15.7 ppg) since April 27, 2003 on the road after a double digit road win in which they shot at least 50% from the field and at least 85% from the free-throw line. The Mavericks are 0-6 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since December 26, 2008 on the road when they have won and covered their last three games.
Rockets at Kings – The Kings are 7-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since February 13, 1997 at home with at most one day of rest after a double digit home loss in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average. The Kings are 0-6 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since February 20, 2010 after a game in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.
Wizards at Knicks – The Wizards are 0-9-1 ATS (-11.7 ppg) since December 13, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Wizards are 0-8 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since March 04, 2009 with at most one day of rest after a home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
Bobcats at Nets – The Bobcats are 8-0-1 ATS (8.0 ppg) since December 08, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. The Bobcats are 7-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since February 11, 2009 off a win as a favorite in which their leading scorer for that game had fewer than 20 points. The Nets are 6-0 ATS (5.2 ppg) since December 08, 2009 after a game on the road in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
Grizzlies at Nuggets – The Grizzlies are 0-6 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since January 12, 2010 when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they led by double digits. The Nuggets are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.5 ppg) since March 02, 2008 before playing the Suns.
Magic at Pacers – The Magic are 0-5 ATS (-7.3 ppg) since December 11, 2009 when playing the second of back-to-back road games. The Pacers are 7-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since November 27, 2003 at home with at least one day of rest after a double digit home win in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Pacers are 7-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since December 14, 2009 with at least one day of rest after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
Raptors at Pistons – The Pistons are 0-5 ATS (-7.1 ppg) since December 20, 2009 at home after a road loss in which their DPS was positive.
Heat at 76ers – The League is 7-0 ATS (7.0 ppg) since April 16, 2008 after a double digit road win in which they had at least 10 more personal fouls than their opponent. The Sixers are 6-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since April 04, 2009 with at least one day of rest off a win in which they trailed by 10+ points.
Timberwolves at Spurs – The Timberwolves are 7-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since April 15, 2007 on the road when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they shot less than 40% from the field. The Spurs are 9-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since December 19, 2001 at home after a road win against the Nuggets.
Thunder at Trailblazers – The Trailblazers are 6-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since March 16, 2009 when both they and their opponent have no rest.