Game of the day: Trail Blazers at Suns
By Nick Parsons
What appeared to be a one-sided series is tied 2-2 after four games. Both teams have won on the road and Brandon Roy’s return could change everything.
Roy to the rescue
Brandon Roy's mere presence was a huge factor in his first game back. He didn't start but he buried a huge 3-pointer with just under 5 minutes to play that gave the Blazers a six-point lead. They never trailed again.
Roy was a major question mark heading into the series. Some felt he could return if Portland survived the first round while others thought he was lost for the entire postseason.
Roy had arthroscopic knee surgery to repair torn cartilage just eight days before returning to the court. When he entered the game as a reserve in the first quarter the Blazers played the theme from Rocky.
Roy said he expects to regain his shooting form as the series progresses.
“I’d certainly say it gave them a lift,” Suns guard Steve Nash said. “More than anything it just gave everyone a boost in their spirit and attitude. That was good for the crowd and good for his teammates to have him out there.”
Pace makes the race
In both of Portland’s victories this series, the Blazers have held the Suns to four fast break points. Transition defense is always important against the up-tempo Suns.
The Suns have 28 fast break points in their two wins in this series.
Nash will have to step up in Game 5. He has posted double-figures in assists in both Suns’ victories and totals of six and eight assists in their losses. Nash turned the ball over six times last game and never got his teammates into any offensive flow. His performance Monday will be critical.
Series recap
Teams that win Game 5 of the series that is tied after four games win the series 83 percent of the time. That makes this one critical for both sides but even more so for Phoenix, which could have virtually ended things on Saturday.
The Suns might have been a bit overconfident heading into this series and Portland shocked Phoenix in Game 1. The Suns immediately responded to blow out the Blazers by 19 points in the next two games.
The Suns are the highest scoring team in the NBA and Portland seems intent on not letting them get out and run. They’ve tried to clamp down on Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire but they let Jason Richardson go off for 42 points in the process and trailed by as many as 31 points in Thursday’s loss.
With their backs against the wall, LaMarcus Aldridge scored 31 points and the Blazers pulled out Game 4. They are surely rejuvenated with Roy’s return.
“As soon as he checked into the game, I got my first open shot with nobody guarding me, so I was thinking thank God he’s back,” Aldridge told reporters.
Said Stoudemire: “We didn’t bring the effort, we didn’t bring the energy, we didn’t rebound, we didn’t attack. We had a chance to go up 3-1, which would have been great. Now we’ve got to go back to a must-win situation.”
Trend-setting
The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 games in this series.
The Suns have rebounded well as of late. They are 4-0 ATS after a SU loss and 6-0 ATS after failing to cover the spread.
The Blazers are 10-3 in their last 13 playoff games as an underdog.
Portland is 1-5 ATS after winning a game and 1-4 after covering the spread.
The over is 13-6 in the Suns last 19 games as a favorite. The over is 5-1 in the Suns’ last six home games.
Injury report
Expect Roy to play again. He didn’t start but he played better as the game went along on Saturday.
Starting forward Nicolas Batum left Thursday’s game with his persistent shoulder injury but played 33 minutes and scored 10 points in Saturday’s win.
Suns center Robin Lopez is out for the entire series with a bulging disc in his back.
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) at Charlotte (0-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
The Magic look to complete a four-game sweep of the Bobcats when they return to Charlotte Bobcats Arena for Game 4 of this best-of-7 Eastern Conference first-round series.
Orlando guard Jameer Nelson led the way in Saturday’s Game 3, scoring 32 points as the Magic rallied for an 90-86 victory, cashing as a two-point road favorite. The Magic outrebounded the Bobcats 42-33 on Saturday and outscored Charlotte 49-40 in the second half to pulled out the victory despite committing 21 turnovers.
Stephen Jackson (19 points) was one of four Bobcats to reach double figures in scoring Saturday, but Charlotte was a woeful 5-for-23 from three-point land.
The Magic are now 26-16 on the highway this season (22-18-2 ATS), including winning nine of their last 11 on the road (7-3-1 ATS). The Bobcats remain a solid 31-11 at home (23-18-1 ATS) this season, but they’ve followed up an 11-1 run (9-3 ATS) at Bobcats Arena by dropping two straight. That includes a 98-89 loss to the Bulls in the regular-season finale as a 1½-point underdog in a meaningless game to the Bobcats, but one with playoff implications for the Bulls.
This is the first trip to the postseason for this Charlotte franchise in its sixth season in existence. Meanwhile, the Magic are in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year. Last spring, they eliminated the 76ers 4-2 (2-4 ATS) in the opening round, then went on to take down the defending-champion Celtics in the conference semifinals (4-3 SU and ATS) and beat the top-seeded Cavaliers (4-2, 5-1 ATS) to reach the NBA Finals for just the second time in franchise history. However, the dream ended in five games against the Lakers (1-4 ATS).
By winning the first three games of this series, Orlando is now on a 10-1 SU run against Charlotte. The Magic are 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings, and the road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven series clashes.
Orlando is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a playoff favorite, but it is on pointspread surges of 8-1 overall, 7-2 on the road, 21-7 against the Eastern Conference, 20-6-1 as a favorite and 7-0 as a road favorite. Charlotte is just 2-6 ATS in its last six overall, 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven as a ‘dog, and 1-6 ATS in its last seven on Monday, but it is on positive ATS streaks of 7-2-1 against the Southeast Division, 6-3-1 after a straight-up loss and 11-6 at home against teams with winning road records.
The Magic have topped the total in four straight Monday games and five of eight after a spread-cover, but they are on “under” runs of 29-13-2 as a favorite, 11-4-1 against Southeast Division teams and 4-0 as a playoff favorite. The Bobcats have gone “over” the total in seven of 11 at home, but they are on “under” streaks of 14-6-1 against the Eastern Conference, 12-3-1 against teams with winning records and 11-1-1 as an underdog.
Finally, the under has cashed in 11 of the last 15 meetings in this rivalry, including six of seven in Charlotte and it is 2-0-1 in this playoff series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Atlanta (2-1 SU and ATS) at Milwaukee (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Bucks, fresh off a blowout victory, will try to knot up this best-of-7, first-round series when they take on the Hawks in Game 4 at the Bradley Center.
Milwaukee jumped all over Atlanta in the first quarter Saturday, taking a 36-19 lead, and after giving back five points in the second, the Bucks outscored the Hawks by nine in the third on the way to a 107-89 Game 3 rout as a one-point home chalk. Milwaukee shot a stout 51.2 percent (41 of 80), including 10 of 23 from 3-point range, and six players scored in double figures, led by John Salmons (22 points, seven assists).
Atlanta, which won and cashed at home in the first two games of this series, shot just 39.1 percent in Game 3, including a dismal 3-for-15 effort from long distance (20 percent). Joe Johnson (25 points) led the Hawks, who had their six-game SU and five-game ATS streaks halted.
Atlanta stands at 19-23 SU (23-19 ATS) on the highway this season, averaging 98.6 ppg on 46.2 percent shooting, while allowing just a smidge less at 98.2 ppg (46.6 percent shooting). Meanwhile, Milwaukee is 29-13 SU (25-16-1 ATS) in the home jerseys, putting up 100.1 ppg and giving up 96.4, despite getting outshot 45.5 percent to 44.1 percent. The Bucks lost their last two regular-season home starts – including an eight-point loss to Atlanta two weeks ago – but are still 13-2 SU (10-4-1 ATS) in their last 15 at the Bradley Center.
Atlanta is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings with Milwaukee, with Saturday’s setback ending a four-game ATS run by the Hawks in this rivalry (3-1 SU). The chalk is on a 12-3-1 ATS tear in the last 16 battles between these two, and the SU winner is 14-3-1 ATS in the last 18 contests.
Also, in Atlanta’s last 21 playoff contests, the SU winner is a torrid 20-0-1 ATS, and the SU winner is 9-0-1 ATS in Milwaukee’s last 10 overall.
The Hawks remain on pointspread sprees of 5-1 overall, 9-2 against the Central Division, 9-2 against winning teams, 8-1-1 after a SU loss of more than 10 points, 4-1 after a day off and 5-2 in first-round playoff games. However, Atlanta is also in a 2-7 ATS rut coming off a SU loss.
Despite Saturday’s effort, the Bucks are still on a 2-8-1 ATS freefall in first-round playoff games (1-4 last five) and are 2-5 ATS in their last seven against Southeast Division foes. Still, they led the NBA at the betting window in the regular season (52-28-2 ATS) and remain on positive pointspread streaks of 35-15-2 overall, 15-5-1 after a day off, 37-15-2 after a spread-cover and 14-6-2 following a SU win.
Saturday’s game went over the posted price of 188½, and the total has now gone high in nine of the last 10 meetings overall in this rivalry and five straight in Milwaukee. In addition, the Bucks are on a plethora of “over” sprees, including 6-2 overall, 6-0-1 at home, 9-1 against winning teams, 14-4-2 in first-round playoff games (6-1 last six), 6-0-1 at home and 9-1 against winning teams.
Finally, Atlanta is on “over” runs of 5-2 overall, 4-1 on the road, 7-1 against winning teams and 20-7 following a non-cover, though the under is 5-1 in the Hawks’ last six after a SU loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Portland (2-2 SU and ATS) at Phoenix (2-2 SU and ATS)
The surprise return of All-Star Brandon Roy led the Trail Blazers to a Game 4 win as they evened their best-of-7 Western Conference first-round series, which now shifts back to the US Airways Center for Game 5.
Portland scored a 96-87 home win on Saturday, easily cashing as a two-point underdog. Less than two weeks after having knee surgery, Roy came back to the court and although he scored just 10 points on 4-for-10 shooting in 26-plus minutes, he gave the Blazers a big emotional boost. LeMarcus Aldridge (31 points, 11 rebounds) shouldered much of the load in Saturday’s win, while guard Andre Miller (Roy’s replacement) contributed 15 points and eight assists. Amare Stoudemire scored 26 points for the Suns, who shot just 33-for-76 from the field (43.4 percent).
The Blazers are 25-18 (26-16-1 ATS) on the road this season, but have won twice in Phoenix this season, including a 105-100 upset win in Game 1 of this series as an 8½-point underdog. Portland has won six of its last eight (4-4 ATS) on the highway. The Suns are 33-10 (26-16-1 ATS) inside US Airways Center, and they’ve won nine of their last 10 at home (8-1-1 ATS), with the only loss and non-cover coming in Game 1 of this series.
Portland ended a six-year playoff drought last year, but went one-and-done, falling 4-2 to the Rockets (3-3 ATS) in the opening round. Phoenix is back in the postseason after missing out last year. This is the Suns’ 19th postseason appearances in the last 22 years.
The Blazers lead the season series 4-3 (4-2-1 ATS), and the road team has won three of the last six meetings, including two of three in this best-of-seven battle. However, the chalk has cashed in 19 of the last 30 meetings between these two, and the home team is riding a 7-3-1 ATS streak in the last 11 contests.
Portland is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after a spread-cover and 1-5 ATS in its last six after a straight-up win, but it is on positive ATS runs of 16-7-1 on the road, 10-3 as a playoff underdog and 15-7-1 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Suns are on a plethora of ATS surges, including 27-11-1 overall, 8-1-1 at home, 19-7-1 as a favorite, 13-3-1 as a home favorite, 6-0 after a non-cover and 7-2-1 at home against teams with a winning home record.
The Blazers have stayed below the posted total in five of seven after a day off, but they are on “over” runs of 16-7 on the road, 17-8 as a road ‘dog, 20-8 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 5-1 after a spread-cover and 13-3 on Monday. Phoenix has stayed “under” the total in seven of 10 against Northwest Division teams and five of seven after a day off, but it is on “over” streaks of 5-1 at home, 5-1 after a non-cover, 13-6 as a playoff favorite and 6-1 as a playoff favorite of between five to 10½ points.
The under is 4-2 in the last six Blazers-Suns contests, but the over cashed in the first two games of this playoff series in the desert.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
NBA Playoff RoundUp For 4/26
By Dan Bebe
Magic @ Bobcats - Orlando by 4 with a total of 182.5. This actually looks like a pretty reasonable road spread for a team going for the 4-game sweep. After seeing how the Heat woke up, I wonder if a lot of people are going to think Charlotte will do the same. I would offer a word of caution: the Bobcats don't have Dwyane Wade. They don't have anyone like him, that can rattle off 45+ points, and literally win a game singlehandedly. The Magic are on a mission, the Bobcats had their chance in game three (courtesy of some friendly whistles), and they missed that chance. I happen to think Orlando closes this thing out, as they saw what happened to Boston yesterday, as well, and the Magic are just too deep and too strong to let that occur against a team without a superstar. This line shift is typical for the game three to game four move, and it doesn't really tell us much about what oddsmakers expect from the game, though it certainly doesn't indicate a strong preference for the home team. Slight lean to Orlando. On the total, well, this CURRENT number of 184 is actually higher than the closing mark of game three (183) despite that game ending at just 176 combined points. So far in the series we've seen totals of 187, 169 and 176, so it's a bit intriguing to me that this number would move up a point. Slight lean to the Over, courtesy of the early move letting us know they expect the teams to shoot a little better and turn the ball over a couple times less.
Hawks @ Bucks - Atlanta by 1.5 with a total of 190. This line is pretty similar to the last game, which featured the classic favorite-flip, when Milwaukee was a 1-point favorite for a while, and Atlanta was, as well. We also got exactly what we expected, and that was an apathetic road effort from the Hawks, and a strong home effort from the Bucks. These two teams are exceptional examples of home/road splits, and the Hawks were just embarrassed in game three. It's rarely a good idea to bank on a team getting crushed two times in a row (though we saw it with Phoenix over Portland), but this series definitely has a shot at getting tied up. The Bucks are far from ready to roll over, and while they don't have home court, and would have to win a road game to take any kind of control, they know that as long as they hold court at home, they've got a shot. It took a heck of a shooting night to get the job done in game three, and that's what concerns me. Can the Bucks really air it out from the perimeter again, and go another 10-for-23 from long range (and 51% on all FG tries)? The Hawks are likely to play a bit better, as well, which means this one could be a close one. I still think the Bucks squeak it out, but barely. The total of 190 is probably pretty accurate. The Bucks won't score 107, but the Hawks won't score 89, either. This one is fairly devoid of value, though I suppose gun to my head, tiny Over lean.
Blazers @ Suns - Phoenix by 6.5 with a total of 202. Series tied 2-2; how about that? Incredibly gutsy performance by Porland in game four, inspired by the return of their formerly ailing superstar, Brandon Roy, who we can only assume will be a tiny bit healthier here in game five, but also a little lacking in adrenaline, since that nutty crowd up in Portland won't be there to light the fire. I have to say, this series is a giant question mark. We've seen blowouts by the Suns, or outright underdog wins for the Blazers, so the spread has meant nothing. Pick a winner of the game, and you'll pick a winner against the spread, too. Will that continue? Can Portland slow down Phoenix on the road? I know that with Roy back, the Blazers can try to slow things down even more, knowing they have a guy that can create a shot at the end of the shot-clock, but how healthy is Roy, really? I happen to believe Phoenix gets the win at home, but I'm not completely sold on another blowout. If the Suns win this one, they're going to have to fight for it. That makes me think the side is a bad value, but the total might very well go under again. Portland just isn't going to get caught up in the madness, though if Phoenix can get some easy buckets and hit those quick spurts, it might not matter. Ultra-small leans to both the Suns to cover by probably a point, and the Under, also by probably a bucket. This line is spot on.
Monday's Playoff Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Monday NBA playoff card involves three series all with different scenarios. The Suns and Blazers are now set for a best-of-three with their series tied at two games apiece, while the Bucks have crept back against the Hawks with a resounding Game 3 victory. We’ll start with the Magic, who look to make the Bobcats disappear with one more win and advance on to the second round.
Magic at Bobcats – 8:05 PM EST
Orlando goes for the four-game sweep of its division rival when the Magic and Bobcats hook up from Time Warner Cable Arena. Charlotte had plenty of opportunities to capture a Game 3 victory on Saturday afternoon, but the Bobcats couldn’t hold a nine-point lead in an 90-86 setback.
Jameer Nelson lit up the Bobcats in Game 3 with a career playoff-high of 32 points. Past Nelson, the rest of Orlando’s weapons were powerless as Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis combined to shoot 8-22 from the floor for 24 points. Orlando’s defense continued to frustrate Charlotte’s offensive rhythm, limiting the Bobcats to 59 points in the final three quarters.
Larry Brown’s squad has nailed only 14 three-pointers in this series compared to the 32 treys knocked down by Orlando. Charlotte’s three-point defense was actually ranked second in the league during the regular season, but Orlando has obviously proven its one of the top teams from downtown with the 820 treys and 37.5% shooting through the season.
The Magic is 15-5-1 ATS and 18-3 SU off a single-digit victory this season, while not allowing more than 89 points in a game through the first three victories. The Bobcats have played only three times at home off a home loss, going 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, but two of those wins came against the Sixers and Wizards.
Saturday’s win was the fifth straight in Charlotte for the Magic in this series, while Orlando is 4-1 ATS in this stretch. The ‘under’ has been extremely profitable at Time Warner Cable Arena, hitting in six of the last seven in this series.
Following Sunday’s Game 4 victory over the Celtics, the Heat became only the fifth team in the last 16 opportunities to win a game when trailing in a series 3-0. That situation comes up Monday with the Bobcats, who have never even won the first playoff game in their six-year history.
The Magic is listed as a four-point road favorite at most spots, with the total set at 184.
Hawks at Bucks – 8:30 PM EST
Atlanta and Milwaukee each looked like different teams when the venue shifted to the Bradley Center on Saturday night. The Hawks cruised through the first two victories at home by double-digits, but Scott Skiles’ team bucked that trend with a 107-89 blowout to cut the series deficit to 2-1.
Milwaukee jumped out to a 36-19 lead after the first quarter and never looked back, while shooting 51% from the floor and hitting ten shots from downtown. Brandon Jennings bounced back from a horrible Game 2 to score 13 points with no turnovers. John Salmons paced the Bucks with 22 points and Kurt Thomas stepped up in the middle with an 8-point, 13-rebound effort.
The Hawks were firmly in control at Philips Arena, but could not find their shooting touch in Milwaukee, as Mike Bibby, Josh Smith, and Marvin Williams shot a combined 6-28 from the field. Joe Johnson was the only Hawk to produce offensively with 25 points, but the early deficit was too much to overcome.
Each of the last five meetings at the Bradley Center have all eclipsed the ‘over,’ including Saturday’s total of 188 ½. The final minute saw 15 points being scored to secure the ‘over,’ including a meaningless three-pointer by Jamal Crawford.
The Hawks are 7-4 SU and 6-5 ATS on the road off a road defeat, but are just 1-4 ATS and 2-3 SU the last five in this spot. On the flip side, the Bucks own a strong 9-4 SU mark at home following a home victory. The loss by the Hawks on Saturday was the first instance since prior to the All-Star Break in which Atlanta fell by double-digits (94-76 home defeat to Miami on April 10).
Atlanta is listed as 1 ½-point ‘chalk’ at most spots, while the total is set at 190.
Blazers at Suns – 10:35 PM EST
Phoenix thought it was going to coast towards the next round following a pair of convincing wins in Games 2 and 3 against Portland. All of that changed quickly as the Blazers surprised everyone with the return of leading scorer Brandon Roy to the lineup. Roy put up only ten points, but was the motivation to help Portland to a 96-87 home triumph, while evening the series at two games apiece.
The 87 points scored by the Suns was their lowest output all season as the Blazers’ defense limited the high-octane Phoenix offense to just 37 points in the second half. While Roy was trying to get back into his rhythm after missing the last five games due to a knee injury, LaMarcus Aldridge put up a game-high 31 points, three more points than the last two games combined for the former second pick out of Texas.
The scene shifts back to the Valley where the Suns and Blazers split the first two games. Both contests at the Rose Garden finished ‘under’ the total while each game in Phoenix drilled the ‘over.’ The Suns were held to 41% shooting from the floor in the series opener, but opened things up in the Game 2 victory by hitting 52% of their shots.
Alvin Gentry’s club is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS the last six after being held to less than 100 points in their previous game. Phoenix is a solid 8-1-1 ATS the last ten at home, with the lone loss coming in the Game 1 setback to Portland. The Blazers haven’t been spectacular as an underdog since the start of February, going a pedestrian 7-7 ATS.
The Suns are listed as a six-point favorite at most books, while the total is set at 202.
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