Game of the day: Phoenix Suns at L.A. Lakers
By NICK PARSONS
Two streaking teams meet in the Western Conference finals. The Lakers are looking to repeat as NBA champions while the Suns haven’t been in the Finals since 1993. Both teams swept their last playoff series.
There is rest for the weary
While many teams complain about long layoffs in between playoff series, the Lakers hope to benefit from the extra time off.
The Lakers haven’t played in a week but the rest will surely be good for Kobe Bryant who has been nursing ankle, finger and knee injuries. Bryant hasn’t practiced all week and may not practice at all the rest of the postseason.
Sasha Vujacic said he’s ready to play after missing the first 10 games of the playoffs with a sprained ankle. Ron Artest and Shannon Brown also said they’re feeling better after suffering nagging injuries.
Lakers coach Phil Jackson said he may complain about the layoff after the game, depending on how well his team plays, but for the most part he’s happy about it.
Series price
The Lakers are generally a 3-1 favorite to win the series checking in at -340 at some offshore points. The Lakers winning the series in five games is the shortest price of the game odds. You can get 30-1 if you think the Suns can sweep this one.
An aerial attack
The series will be greatly impacted from long range. The Suns are the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA. The Lakers are the best at defending the 3-pointer.
These teams met four times in the regular season with the Lakers winning three of them. The game they lost, Phoenix hit a dozen 3-pointers.
By the numbers, Phoenix finished 28-4 when they shoot at least 45 percent from 3-point range, while the Lakers went 12-0 when they limited opponents to under 40 percent shooting.
The X-factor
A lot of people think that the performance of Suns’ reserve Goran Dragic could be the difference-maker. That’s not the opinion here.
While Dragic had some scintillating moments against the Spurs (23 points in the fourth quarter of Game 4) it’s more likely that Grant Hill’s drive and desire will be the biggest factor.
Hill could erase a lot of disappointing moments in his NBA career with a big series here. He’s already shut down Andre Miller and Manu Ginobili and is sure to see a great deal of time shadowing Bryant.
Hill came back to Phoenix for this opportunity and it seems like it could very well be his last chance to get an NBA ring. At 37 years old, this is the first time that Hill has even won a playoff series and now he’s in the conference finals.
Injury report
Andrew Bynum said that his injured knee gradually is getting worse but he plans to play through the pain and swelling. Bynum has a small tear in his meniscus. He practiced fully on Saturday.
“He’s running with some limitations,” Jackson said. “He still looks good. It’s good to see him out there.”
Let’s face it, the Lakers have a lot of tread on the tires so they’re supposed to have some injury problems. Bryant, Artest, Brown, Vujacic are also fighting injuries and Pau Gasol has a sinus infection. Jackson expects them all to play.
For the Suns, Steve Nash still has some lingering issues with his eye after being elbowed by Tim Duncan in the last series. He’ll play.
Suns starting center Robin Lopez is expected to play after missing the entire playoffs thus far and the final 10 games of the regular season with a bulging disk in his back.
Trend-setting
The Lakers have won eight straight playoff games at home straight up.
The Suns are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs and own the same mark in their last five as road dogs.
The Suns are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with winning percentage above .600
The under is 7-1-1 in the Suns’ last nine road games but the under has cashed the last four times they’ve had layoffs of three or more days.
The Lakers have covered the spread five of their last six games.
In head-to-head matchups the Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
The over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in L.A.
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS
Phoenix (8-2 SU and ATS) at L.A. Lakers (8-2, 6-4 ATS)
The defending NBA champion Lakers and the surging Suns, both fresh off second-round sweeps and having gotten a full week of rest, open the best-of-7 Western Conference finals at Staples Center.
Phoenix is on a 22-4 SU spree in its last 26 games, going 19-6-1 ATS in that stretch. The third-seeded Suns got pushed to six games by No. 6 Portland in the first round, going 4-2 SU and ATS, then punished the seventh-seeded Spurs with a four-game SU and ATS sweep in the second round. Phoenix won Games 3 and 4 in San Antonio as a road underdog, finishing it off eight days ago with a 107-101 victory as a four-point pup. Amare Stoudemire had 29 points in the clincher, and Steve Nash had 20 points and nine assists in the finale.
Jason Richardson (21.9 ppg) has been Phoenix’s top point producer in the playoffs, with Stoudemire (20.5) close behind. Nash is dealing out nine assists per game, third-best in the postseason but trailing only Boston’s Rajon Rondo (11.1) among players still remaining.
Los Angeles, seeded first in the West, has won six in a row in the playoffs, taking the last two games SU and ATS in its six-game first-round series with pesky Oklahoma City before rolling over Utah in four straight (3-1 ATS). The Lakers closed out the Jazz last Monday with a 110-96 rout as a 3½-point road underdog, getting 33 points and 14 rebounds from Pau Gasol and 32 points from Kobe Bryant.
Bryant is the fourth-leading scorer in the postseason, at 26.9 ppg, but the three ahead of him have already bowed out: Miami’s Dwyane Wade (33.2), Denver’s Carmelo Anthony (30.7) and Cleveland’s LeBron James (29.1). Gasol has put up 20.2 ppg along with 13.1 rebounds, second-best in the playoffs.
Los Angeles went 3-1 SU and ATS in its four regular-season meetings with Phoenix this season, with the SU winner cashing in all four games. The Lakers are on further rolls against the Suns of 7-2 SU and 9-4 ATS. The home team is on a 5-1 ATS run, and the SU winner is 11-1 ATS in the last dozen matchups. Most recently, Los Angeles won 102-96 as a two-point road chalk on March 12.
These squads also met in the first round in 2006 and 2007, with Phoenix taking both series, rallying from a 3-1 deficit in ’06 while going 4-3 ATS, and rolling in five games in ’07 (2-3 ATS). The SU winner has cashed in all 10 of the Suns’ playoff games this year and in 19 in a row overall for Phoenix, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in L.A.’s 10 playoff contests.
Phoenix is 26-20 SU (27-19 ATS) on the highway this season (4-1 SU and ATS in the postseason), averaging 107.2 ppg on 48.6 percent shooting and allowing a shade less at 106.1 ppg (45.6 percent).
Los Angeles is 39-7 inside Staples Center this year, but just 19-25-2 ATS, despite outscoring the opposition by nearly nine ppg (103.7-95.0), shooting an even 46 percent and allowing 43.6 percent shooting. The Lakers are 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS) at home in the playoffs.
The Suns are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 games after a break of three or more days, but they own a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including 34-16-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 5-0 as an underdog, 20-6 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 19-6-1 after a spread-cover and 20-8-1 after a SU win.
The Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU win, but they are otherwise in pointspread ruts of 5-11-1 at home (all as a chalk), 3-11 after a spread-cover, 2-8-1 on Monday and 3-8 against Pacific Division foes.
Los Angeles is on a 6-1-1 “over” run in its last eight games, and the over has hit in five of its last seven as a favorite, but the Lakers are also on “under” stretches of 9-2 in the conference finals, 4-1 after three or more days off and 11-3 as a playoff chalk. Phoenix carries “under” streaks of 7-1-1 on the road, 6-1-1 as a favorite, 7-2 when getting five to 10½ points, 4-1 as a playoff ‘dog and 4-1 in the conference finals, though the over has cashed in the Suns’ last four games following three or more days’ rest.
Finally, in this rivalry, the over/under split in this season’s four contests and has alternated in the last six meetings overall, with the March 12 contests in Phoenix falling well short of the 212½-point price. However, the total has gone high in eight of the last 11 series meetings at Staples Center.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
NBA Playoff RoundUp For 5/17
By Dan Bebe
Suns @ Lakers - Los Angeles by 6.5 with a total of 212. Two teams that have been resting the last week butt heads on this fine Monday evening. Of course, with all the time off, that does give us some pause when breaking this one down. For one, we've been getting reports that Andrew Bynum's knee is actually getting worse every day, rather than better. This is bigger than people realize. Bynum, Gasol, and Odom are the three biggest reasons (pun slightly intended) the Lakers are going to be able to take care of the Suns. Size matters, would be another lame way to put it into words. The Suns are a better shooting team than LA, but the key to the Lakers' success in this series is going to be limiting the Suns easy buckets, and controlling the paint. And, with all 3 of the aforementioned 7-footers healthy, controlling the paint would be a given for LA. Instead, if Bynum is truly slowing more and more by the day, that is going to put a ton of pressure on Gasol to cover a lot of ground on the interior. It also virtually guarantees Gasol will be guarding Amare Stoudemire for the bulk of the game, unless LA decides to let Odom have a go, or maybe even Artest. However, it's pretty clear the Lakers are putting the pieces together at the right time. Kobe is wide awake now, and the Suns don't have anyone that can slow him down, and the Lakers guards off the bench are playing better, as well. I think we may have underestimated the Thunder defense in the first round. The Lakers came back and creamed the Jazz offensively, and while the Suns are better on the defensive end this year than any recent season, they're no match for the Lakers, and they don't have nearly the length of Oklahoma City to disrupt shots. We could go around and around on all the tiny edges here and there, but I think this game, and series, is going to boil down to the Suns ability to hit contested jumpers. If they crush it from outside with a hand in their collective face, they'll cover. If the Lakers defend the three point line well, they'll cover. That's it. Kobe will get his; Pau will dominate the interior; Amare will hit a few jumpers; and Steve Nash will make things happen. But at the end of the day, if Phoenix hits threes, they'll stay in the game. I happen to think the Lakers have a slight edge here in the opener. We've seen the Suns get out to some slow starts and claw their way back into games, but that involved shutting down an opponent for 4-5 minutes, and that just doesn't happen with the Lakers. Slight lean to LA. On the total, this number looks huge, and I'm inclined to think we squeeze Under the mark with LA making sure to keep things at a snail's pace for as long as possible and pounding the ball inside.