Game of the day: Spurs at Suns
By Nick Parsons
Two veteran squads tip off Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals Monday. The No. 7-seeded Spurs upset the Dallas Mavericks in six games in their opening series. The No. 3-seed Suns had some rough moments in their first-round series but knocked off the Trail Blazers.
One-sided rivalry
These two teams are no strangers to each other in the playoffs. The Spurs have eliminated the Suns four of the last five times Phoenix has reached the playoffs. And the year the Suns won, Tim Duncan missed the series due to injury.
The Suns have home-court advantage and are the favorites in the series but history is clearly on the side of the Spurs.
Injury report
Suns guard Steve Nash has been fighting a sore hip. He will play but tends to get a bit more rest on the sidelines lately. Nash has done some shooting but has not practiced for the past two days and said the injury is worse now than when he originally injured it in Game 3 of the Blazers’ series.
Suns center Robin Lopez is doubtful for Monday’s game. He did practice Saturday and said he feels better. Lopez has a bulging disk in his back. He vows to play in the series but don’t count on him until at least Game 3.
Also, Spurs guard Malik Hairston missed the first series with an ankle injury and is questionable for Monday’s game. DeJuan Blair played in Game 6 of the last series after driving his car into a guardrail before the game.
Season series
The Suns won the season series 2-1, all high-scoring affairs. The two teams averaged 218 points in the game and each game went over the total. Amare Stoudemire averaged over 32 points and the Suns covered the spread all three games.
The edge
Every time you count the Spurs out, their savvy and grit seems to carry them.
The Suns have watched Tim Duncan and Robert Horry bury 3-pointers at the buzzer. Even during the regular season, Roger Mason hit a 3-pointer at the buzzer.
The Suns have also had Stoudemire and Boris Diaw suspended in crucial contests and injuries have cost them at other times. Nash couldn’t stop his nose from bleeding in another memorable contest.
But, the Suns seem to have the better legs. They’ve got Grant Hill to slow down Manu Ginobili and Duncan has seen better days. They have to believe they can win this one.
No donuts for Duncan
For years, the Suns have tried to find a way to limit Duncan – with little or no success. Stoudemire’s guarded him. They brought in Kurt Thomas and even failed with the Shaq. Now, Robin Lopez is banged up.
Duncan may be aging but he and his pick-and-roll are still a weapon. He averaged 18 points and 10 rebounds during the season. Jarron Collins will get his chance to slow him down this series.
The X-factor
Jason Richardson averaged 23.5 points in the playoff series against the Blazers. He scored 42 points to single-handedly win Game 3 and shot over 50 percent from 3-point range in the series. After toiling in Golden State and Charlotte for several years, Richardson seems to be poised to make a name for himself in the playoffs.
Trend setting
The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference semifinal games but they are 1-6 ATS in their last seven playoff games as an underdog.
The Suns are 8-2 ATS when a slight favorite up to 4.5 points. The line is currently -4.5.
While these teams have gone over the total the last three times they’ve met, most of the figures point to the under in the contest. The Spurs have gone under the total six of the last seven games and the other was a push. The Suns have gone under the total four straight.
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston (4-2 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (5-1, 3-3 ATS)
The top-seeded Cavaliers look to maintain home-court advantage when they face the fourth-seeded Celtics in Game 2 of the best-of-7 Eastern Conference semifinals at Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland found itself in trouble in the third quarter of Game 1, trailing 69-58, but it finished the quarter on a 21-9 tear to get the lead and went on to a 101-93 victory Saturday, barely covering as a seven-point home favorite. LeBron James, named the league MVP on Sunday for the second straight year, had 35 points and seven assists, and the Cavs shot 48.7 percent (38 of 78). Cleveland also made 31 trips to the free-throw line, making 21, while Boston was 17 of 21 from the charity stripe.
Rajon Rondo (27 points, 12 assists) and Kevin Garnett (18 points, 10 rebounds) each had double-doubles for Boston, which went 36 of 81 from the floor (44.4 percent) but hit just 4 of 16 from three-point range (25 percent).
Cleveland is a stout 39-6 SU at home this year, but is just 19-26 ATS (2-3 ATS in the playoffs), averaging 103.1 points per game on 49.6 percent shooting while giving up 94.3 ppg on 43.9 percent shooting. Boston is 27-17 on the highway (22-21-1 ATS), putting up 97.9 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting and allowing 94.6 ppg on 44.5 percent shooting.
The Cavs have owned this rivalry lately, going 19-7-2 ATS in the 28 meetings (3-2 this season), including 7-1 ATS in the last eight clashes at the Q. The home team and the chalk are 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups, and Cleveland is on a 7-1 ATS run in playoff games against Boston (6-0 last six), having covered in six of seven during a second-round meeting two seasons ago. Also, the SU winner has cashed in all five meetings this season and eight straight overall.
Despite the non-cover in Game 1, the Celtics remain on pointspread upswings of 9-4-1 as a postseason underdog, 5-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss and 23-11 when catching five to 10½ points, though they are also on ATS dives of 1-4 as an underdog overall, 4-14 in second-round contests and 6-17-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The Cavaliers are still on ATS slides of 5-11 overall (3-6 last nine), 1-6 against winning teams, 2-7 after a SU win and 4-9 as a favorite. However, they carry positive pointspread streaks of 18-5-1 in second-round playoff games and 18-7-1 as a playoff chalk.
The under is 17-6 in Cleveland’s last 23 conference semifinal contests, but the Cavs are otherwise on a bundle of “over” surges, including 11-1 against Atlantic Division foes, 8-2 as a playoff favorite, 6-0 as a playoff chalk of five to 10½ points and 5-1 after a SU win. Likewise, Boston is on “over” sprees of 11-4 overall, 5-1 on the road, 7-1 against the Central Division, 7-1 as a pup and 6-2 as a playoff ‘dog.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in all five meetings this season and is 6-1 in the last seven contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
San Antonio (4-2 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) at Phoenix (4-2 SU and ATS)
The seventh-seed Spurs, fresh off an upset of second-seeded Dallas, make the trek to the desert for Game 1 of their best-of-7, second-round series against the third-seeded Suns at U.S. Airways Center.
San Antonio dumped the Mavericks in six games in the first round, capped by Thursday’s 97-87 home victory as a 4½-point chalk. Manu Ginobili had 26 points, and rising young star George Hill poured in 21, while Tim Duncan added 17 points, 10 rebounds and five assists. The Spurs won by double digits despite blowing all of a 22-point lead and shooting just 19 of 31 from the free-throw line (61.3 percent).
The Spurs shot 45.9 percent in the opening round and held Dallas to 42.9 percent shooting.
Phoenix also went six games in its first-round series against Portland, finishing off the Blazers with Thursday’s 99-90 road victory as a 1½-point underdog. Jason Richardson paced the Suns with 28 points, hitting 10 of 16 overall and 5 of 8 from long distance. Phoenix shot 47.3 percent from the field (35 of 74), including 12 of 23 from beyond the arc (52.2 percent). For the series, the Suns shot 47.2 percent and limited Portland to 43 percent shooting.
San Antonio is 22-22 SU and ATS on the road this season (1-2 SU and ATS in the playoffs), putting up an average of 96.9 ppg (45.4 percent shooting) and yielding 95.5 ppg (44.3 percent shooting). Phoenix is 34-10 (27-16-1 ATS) in the home jerseys (2-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs, scoring a whopping 112.3 ppg on 49.6 percent shooting and allowing 102.6 ppg on 44.5 percent shooting.
Phoenix has cashed in all three meetings this season in this rivalry (2-1 SU), winning and covering in both contests in the desert, including a 112-101 victory as a six-point chalk on April 7. These two teams met in the first round two seasons ago, with the Spurs advancing 4-1 (2-2-1 ATS), and in the second round three years ago, with San Antonio winning in six games (3-2-1 ATS). Also, the SU winner is 13-1-1 ATS in the last 15 clashes between these two.
The Spurs are on ATS upticks of 21-9-1 overall, 4-1 on Monday and 4-1 in conference semifinal games, but are also 1-6 ATS in their last seven as a playoff pup and 1-5 ATS in their last six after a break of three days or more.
The Suns are on several ATS rolls, including 29-11-1 overall, 15-5-1 at home, 16-5 against the Southwest Division, 20-7-1 as a favorite and 15-6-1 after a spread-cover. That said, Phoenix is 5-13-1 ATS in its last 18 after a break of three days or more and 2-8 as a playoff chalk of less than five points.
San Antonio is on a bundle of “under” tears, including 6-0-1 overall (all against the Mavericks), 23-9-2 on the highway, 4-0 after a SU win, 4-0 in second-round games, 4-0-1 as a ‘dog, 8-1-1 as a playoff pup, and 13-3-2 getting points on the road. The under for Phoenix is on runs of 4-0 overall and 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, but the Suns also sport “over” streaks of 5-2 at home (all as a chalk), 10-4 in second-round playoff games and 9-4 against the Southwest Division.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings overall, including all three this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
Tips and Trends
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
Celtics: Boston missed out on a golden opportunity to steal Game 1 and the home court advantage in their series with the Cavaliers. Boston is playing revitalized in the playoffs, as they are finally playing with passion that has been missing nearly all season. The Celtics experience and their overall passion gives them the confidence that they can compete with the favorites to win the NBA Championship. Boston had a tremendous game from their starting 5, as they combined for 81 PTS. The Celtics bench was the problem, as they only had 12 PTS combined. The Cavaliers bench outscored the Boston bench by 14 PTS, easily the difference in the game. F Paul Pierce will also look to have a bounce back game, as he only had 13 PTS on 5 of 17 shooting in Game 1. PG Rajon Rondo was the 2nd best player on the floor besides LeBron James, as he finished with 27 PTS and 12 assists for Boston. Rondo is averaging 16.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, and 10 APG thus far in the playoffs. The Celtics are 27-17 SU and 22-21-1 ATS on the road this season. Boston is 0-2 ATS as a road underdog between 6.5 and 9 PTS this season.
Celtics are 4-14 ATS last 18 Conference Semifinals games.
Over is 6-1 last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 88
Cavaliers (-6.5, O/U 191.5): Cleveland had quite the scare in Game 1, as they were down by double digits at the half to their bitter rival. Cleveland woke up at the half though, as they outscored the Celtics 58-39 in the 2nd half to ultimately win both SU and ATS. F LeBron James had 35 PTS as well as 7 rebounds and 7 assists. PG Mo Williams contributed 20 PTS of his own, but didn't make any 3 pointers. No other Cavaliers player scored more than 11 PTS in the game. Cleveland was able to take advantage of the foul situation, as they made as many free throws as the Celtics attempted. Cleveland is now 66-22 SU and 41-46-1 ATS overall. Cleveland is 39-6 SU and 19-25-1 ATS in home games this season. The Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite between 6.5 and 9 PTS this season. Cleveland is 22-16 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record. F Antawn Jamison will look to have a better 2nd game against the Celtics, as he is averaging 17.3 PPG so far during the playoffs.
Cavs are 5-0 ATS last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 8-2 last 10 playoff games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 100 (Side of the Day)
San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns
Spurs: San Antonio is happy to see Phoenix in the playoffs, considering the past 3 times the Spurs won the NBA Championship they defeated the Suns in the playoffs along the way. San Antonio is playing their very best basketball right now, making them very dangerous. They have their big 3 of Guards Tony Parker and Manu Ginobli, along with F Tim Duncan. The Spurs also have the emerging G George Hill, as well as a high scoring bench. Hill is averaging 14.3 PPG while shooting 50% from both the 3 point line and the field during the playoffs. Ginobli is leading the Spurs in scoring, averaging 19 PPG this postseason. San Antonio has also been playing great defense, as they've limited their opposition to 90 PTS or fewer in 4 of their past 5 games. Coach Popovich is very exciting and confident with his team as they enter the 2nd Round of the playoffs. San Antonio is 54-34 SU and 47-39-2 ATS overall this season. The Spurs are 22-22 SU and 20-23-1 ATS on the road this season. San Antonio was 11-6 ATS this season against the Pacific Division.
Spurs are 1-6 ATS last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 7-0-1 last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Key Injuries - G Malik Hairston (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 97
Suns (-4.5, O/U 203.5): Phoenix has been playing world class basketball since the start of the 2nd half of the regular season. The Suns are 18-9 ATS in the 2nd half of the season against teams with a winning overall record. Phoenix has been winning with both an explosive offense and a feisty defense that is taking many people by surprise. The Suns have scored 100 or more PTS in 7 of their last 9 games overall. Phoenix has also held their opposition to 96 PTS or fewer in 5 consecutive games entering tonight. The Suns have been led offensively this postseason by both G Jason Richardson and F Amar'e Stoudemire. Richardson is averaging 23.5 PPG, and is making 51% of his 3 pointers this postseason. The Suns are 29-4 SU when Richardson scores at least 20 PTS this season. Stoudemire is averaging 20.5 PPG, and has a history of dominating San Antonio. Stoudemire averaged 32.7 PPG and 11.3 RPG in 3 meetings wit the Spurs this season alone. The Suns are 34-10 SU and 26-16-2 ATS in home games this season. Phoenix is 7-2 ATS as a home favorite between 3.5 and 6 PTS this season. The Suns are 14-4 ATS against Southwest Division teams this season.
Suns are 15-5-1 ATS last 21 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-0 last 4 overall.
Key Injuries - G Steve Nash (hip) is probable.
C Robin Lopez (back) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 98 (UNDER - Total of the Day)