Saturday's Best NBA Bets
Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks (-8.5, 193)
The Blazers were able to weather the storm without All-Star guard Brandon Roy for a little while, but it appears the ship is starting to sink without the talented slasher in the lineup.
Portland has lost back-to-back games heading into Friday’s date with the Houston Rockets, dropping to 3-4 (4-2 ATS) in games without Roy this season. But as much as the Trail Blazers miss Roy’s 23 points per game, he misses them just as much.
He is nursing his nagging hamstring injury back in Portland while the team travels to Texas for two games. Roy has been forced to watch his team’s recent road games on TV, which has been a difficult task for the constant competitor.
"I’m walking around the house and I didn’t really notice it at first, but when the players and coaches were talking during a timeout, my hands were shaking a little bit," Roy told The Oregonian about watching last weekend’s win over Detroit. "I’m thinking, ‘Man, I’m nervous!’ I’m never nervous when I’m playing, I'm like, ‘Coach, hurry up and draw up the play and let’s get back out on the court.’ "
The Blazers have missed his clutch play down the stretch on both ends of the floor. Portland could sure use his perimeter defense against the Mavericks, who are averaging 114 points over their last three games and have defeated the Trail Blazers in seven of their last 10 meetings.
Pick: Dallas
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic (-5, 192.5)
The Magic scored a huge conference win over the Boston Celtics Thursday night, downing their Eastern rivals 96-94. Now, Orlando is setting its sights on its own division – more specifically the Southeast-leading Atlanta Hawks.
Heading into Friday night, the Magic are knotted with the Hawks atop the division with a 30-16 record. Atlanta plays Boston Friday, heading into that contest with a 28-15 mark on the season.
Dwight Howard picked up his game against the Celtics, scoring 11 of his 19 points in the fourth quarter. Howard made his last five field goal attempts and pushed Orlando to the comeback victory.
"That's the best he's played against their big guys in the low post," Magic coach Stan Van Gundy told the Orlando Sentinel. "I thought that he looked tremendous down there, and we kept going to him in the fourth quarter because he was playing so well. I just think [that] we were able to get him the ball in the fourth was the big thing."
Howard matches might with fellow Eastern Conference All-Star center Al Horford Saturday night. In his last meeting with Horford and the Hawks on Jan. 9, Howard scored just 12 points on 4-of-8 shooting. Back in November, he scored 22 points to Horford’s two in a 93-76 win as 3.5-point road underdogs in Atlanta.
Pick: Orlando
Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic
The Atlanta Hawks and the Orlando Magic will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Amway Arena.
The Hawks soared in the fourth quarter and came back to defeat the Celtics 100-91 on Friday. The Hawks covered the 4-point spread, while the 191 points went UNDER the posted total of 190.5.
Jamal Crawford went for 28 points and dished out six assists, while Joe Johnson finished with a team-high 27 points.
The Magic rallied with 35 points in the fourth quarter on Thursday, as they defeated the Celtics 96-94. The Magic failed to cover the 3.5-point spread, while the 190 points made it OVER the posted total of 189.
Rashard Lewis netted 23 points and grabbed eight rebounds to lead the Magic. Dwight Howard chipped in with 19 points and 10 rebounds for a double-double in the win.
Team records:
Atlanta: 30-15 SU, 30-15 ATS
Orlando: 30-16 SU, 22-22-2 ATS
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 5-5
Before playing Oklahoma City are 7-3
After playing Boston are 5-5
After a win are 5-5
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 9-1
Before playing Detroit are 7-3
After playing Boston are 7-3
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Orlando
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Orlando is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Orlando is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
Orlando is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Next up:
Atlanta at Oklahoma City, Tuesday, February 2
Orlando at Detroit, Sunday, January 31
New Orleans Hornets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
The fans at FedExForum will be treated to a game between the New Orleans Hornets and the Memphis Grizzlies when they take their seats on Saturday.
The Hornets were defeated 108-106 by the Bulls last time out, as 4-point favorites. That game's 214 points sailed OVER the posted total of 197.
David West had 29 points and 14 rebounds for a double-double in the loss.
O.J. Mayo shot 12-for-19 from the field with 28 points in the Grizzlies' 104-97 loss to the Spurs last time out, as 5-point underdogs. That game's 201 points made it OVER the posted total of 200.
Team records:
New Orleans: 25-21 SU, 22-24 ATS
Memphis: 25-20 SU, 26-19 ATS
New Orleans most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 7-3
Before playing Phoenix are 6-4
After playing Chicago are 5-5
After a loss are 8-2
Memphis most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 5-5
Before playing LA Lakers are 2-8
After playing San Antonio are 5-5
After a loss are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
New Orleans is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Memphis
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New Orleans's last 15 games when playing Memphis
Memphis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Memphis's last 15 games when playing New Orleans
Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Memphis is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Next up:
New Orleans home to Phoenix, Monday, February 1
Memphis home to LA Lakers, Monday, February 1
New York Knicks vs. Washington Wizards
The New York Knicks and the Washington Wizards will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Verizon Center.
The Raptors got down early and came back for a 106-104 victory over the Knicks on Thursday, as 3.5-point underdogs. The 210 points went UNDER the posted total of 218.
The Wizards came back in the fourth quarter and snuck past the Nets 81-79 on Friday. The Wizards failed to cover the 3.5-point spread, while the 160 points went UNDER the posted total of 192.5.
Andray Blatche had 14 points with six rebounds in leading the Wizards. Earl Boykins finished with 15 points in the win.
Team records:
New York: 18-27 SU, 21-24 ATS
Washington: 15-30 SU, 17-28 ATS
New York most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 3-7
Before playing Minnesota are 2-8
After playing Toronto are 4-6
After a loss are 6-4
Washington most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 2-8
Before playing Boston are 6-4
After playing New Jersey are 2-8
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New York's last 7 games when playing Washington
New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Washington
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
New York is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games at home
Washington is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against New York
Washington is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games at home
Next up:
New York at Minnesota, Sunday, January 31
Washington home to Boston, Monday, February 1
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks
The Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Bradley Center.
Dwyane Wade shot 7-for-11 from the field with 22 points and four rebounds to lead the Heat to a convincing 92-65 win over the Pistons on Friday. The Heat covered the 2-point spread, while the teams played UNDER the posted total of 187.5.
Jermaine O'Neal finished with 10 points and 11 rebounds for a double-double in the victory.
Five players went for double-figure scoring as the Bucks defeated the 76ers 91-88 on Wednesday. The Bucks covered the 2.5-point spread, while the 179 points went UNDER the posted total of 199.5.
Charlie Bell and Brandon Jennings poured in 18 points apiece in leading the Bucks. Ersan Illyasova added 15 points in that win.
Team records:
Miami: 24-22 SU, 23-22-1 ATS
Milwaukee: 19-25 SU, 26-18 ATS
Miami most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 4-6
Before playing Milwaukee are 3-7
After playing Detroit are 4-6
After a win are 4-6
Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 4-6
Before playing Miami are 6-4
After playing Philadelphia are 6-4
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Miami's last 25 games when playing Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Milwaukee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Next up:
Miami home to Milwaukee, Monday, February 1
Milwaukee at Miami, Monday, February 1
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Portland Trail Blazers and the Dallas Mavericks will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at American Airlines Center.
The Trail Blazers were defeated 104-100 by the Rockets last time out, as 5-point underdogs. That game's 204 points made it OVER the posted total of 194.
Rudy Fernandez collected 25 points with five rebounds in a losing effort for the Trail Blazers.
The Mavericks were defeated 112-106 by the Suns last time out, as 2-point underdogs. That game's 218 points made it OVER the posted total of 216.
Jason Terry netted 21 points and Dirk Nowitzki added 19 in a losing effort.
Current streak:
Portland has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Portland: 27-21 SU, 26-21-1 ATS
Dallas: 30-16 SU, 20-26 ATS
Portland most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 5-5
Before playing Charlotte are 3-7
After playing Houston are 4-6
After a loss are 7-3
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 7-3
Before playing Utah are 7-3
After playing Phoenix are 8-2
After a loss are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Portland's last 10 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Portland's last 19 games when playing Dallas
Portland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Portland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Dallas is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Portland
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Dallas's last 10 games when playing at home against Portland
Dallas is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games when playing Portland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games at home
Next up:
Portland home to Charlotte, Monday, February 1
Dallas at Utah, Monday, February 1
Charlotte Bobcats vs. Sacramento Kings
The Charlotte Bobcats and the Sacramento Kings will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at ARCO Arena.
Gerald Wallace poured in 30 points and hauled down 13 rebounds for a double-double in leading the Hornets to a 121-110 win over the Warriors on Friday. The Bobcats covered the 2-point spread, and the 231 points sailed OVER the posted total of 211.
Stephen Jackson also netted 30 points for the Bobcats, while Raymond Felton and D.J. Augustin had 14 points apiece in that win.
The Kings were defeated 101-94 by the Jazz last time out, as 8.5-point underdogs. That game's 195 points went UNDER the posted total of 203.
Kevin Martin tossed in a game-high 33 points with seven rebounds for the Kings.
Current streak:
Charlotte has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Charlotte: 23-22 SU, 27-18 ATS
Sacramento: 16-29 SU, 21-22-2 ATS
Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 3-7
Before playing Portland are 4-6
After playing Golden State are 6-4
After a win are 8-2
Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 5-5
Before playing Denver are 2-8
After playing Utah are 2-8
After a loss are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
Charlotte is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Charlotte's last 9 games when playing Sacramento
Charlotte is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Sacramento
Charlotte is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Sacramento
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Sacramento's last 5 games at home
Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte
Sacramento is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento's last 9 games when playing Charlotte
Next up:
Charlotte at Portland, Monday, February 1
Sacramento at Denver, Monday, February 1
NBA RoundUp For 1/30
By Dan Bebe
Hawks @ Magic - Orlando by 5 with a total of 192.5. The battle of teams that just played Boston! This will be the 3rd meeting of these teams this season, and Orlando has dominated each of the first two, winning in Atlanta by 17, then at home by 22. So yes, a few things come to mind: the Hawks are indeed on double-revenge, but I just don't know if this is the right time. Both teams are coming off emotional games with the Celtics, and the Hawks just completed a 4-game season sweep of Boston with a nice 4th quarter last night. But how strong is the double-revenge when Atlanta just powered out such a nice 4-game sweep and, I would say, accomplished one small season goal? I'm inclined to think not all that outrageously strong. Orlando has owned the Hawks so far, so it's also quite possible that the Magic just have Atlanta's number. Let's dig deeper. How have each of these teams played in the game immediately following a showdown with Boston? When Orlando beat Boston in Boston back in November, they followed that up with a road win over the Raptors (and a cover); when Orlando lost to Boston in Orlando, the Magic bounced back by throttling the Bucks. So 2 games after Boston so far, and 2 wins and covers. How about Atlanta? When they beat Boston in November, the Hawks were right in the middle of a 7-game winning streak, so needless to say, they won the next one; the most recent win over Boston was followed by a narrow home cover against the Wizards; that brings us to the 2nd game with Boston for the Hawks. They beat the Celtics by 8 in Atlanta, and had to play in Orlando the next night where they got manhandled by the aforementioned 22 points. So, here we are again, the same exact scenario, and the Magic are favored by just 5. This is scary, to me. I definitely think Orlando has a strong edge in energy and experience, but this line is enough to give a man fits. I don't like the side here, given all the information we have, but if I had to lean, I'd lean to the home fave. In terms of the tota, the first meeting between these teams went under 199, the second went under 196, and now this one is set at 192. We might very well be due for an Over, but let's see how this thing moves off the opening number, since I'm at a loss for what the public is going to think on this total.
Hornets @ Grizzlies - Memphis by 5 with a total of 206. Memphis and New Orleans BOTH playing back-to-back contests, so this is definitely going to be a battle of attrition, and courtesy of New Orleans losing in overtime to the Bulls, I would expect to see this line move to 6 before morning, so your best bet might be to grab Memphis right at this very moment (if the line hasn't changed before I finish typing this blog), then maybe hope for a move up to 7 and grab yourself a middle, since a 2-point middle, as you all heard on the podcast I'm sure (you best be listening!) is a very profitable endeavor in the long term, especially when NBA lines are getting nice and sharp. In any case, we know how tough Memphis has been at home, and we also know how New Orleans has a knack for playing close games. I think a lot of that has to do with having a leader like Chris Paul - he's so even keel that his team really feeds off that. They don't get up when they're ahead, and don't get down when they're behind, leading to a lot of games decided by a bucket or two. And just as we hope, we have an example! Wow, it's like we were taught in 9th grade - when you make a statement, back it up. How about the game between these same two teams just a week ago, which New Orleans won 113-111, failing to cover the home spread of -3.5, and easily clearing the posted total of 204. So, in a week and a half, the power rankings have changed 2.5 points? I'm not sure I buy that, and I'm thinking this line has been overadjusted for home court, and potentially preadjusted for revenge. While I definitely believe Memphis wins the game, I actually think New Orleans might be the better value, especially once this line adjusts for the Hornets going into OT last night. I lean Hornets if we can get this thing at 6 or 7. I think we'll see the total come down a tiny bit because of fatigue, but both teams have played to the Over on back-to-backs, and I lean that way.
Knicks @ Wizards - This line is OFF. And this is not the world's greatest spot for either team. The Knicks just finished up a 5-game homestand with that brutal loss to the Raptors, and will be playing their first road game since January 16th! How will the Knicks respond to being back out on the road? If recent road games are any indicator, the answer is "okay" -- they took 2 of 3 road games near the turn of the decade, then took 1 of 3 in Houston, Oklahoma and Philly, then lost their most recent road game in Detroit when the Pistons were actually playing decent ball for about 3 games. So, based on those games, 2 weeks ago, we have to try to figure out how they'll play in this one. My guess is, well, "okay." As for the Wizards, they managed to squeak out a narrow win in Jersey last night, 81-79 (I leaned Under in that one pretty strongly, for what it's worth), and now they come home to host the Knicks. This is a Wizards team that really needed a win, but they're just not showing any kind of spirit over the last few games. They've failed to cover in 4 straight, and it just looks like they're hitting that wall that I spoke of at great length on the podcast with respect to yesterday's play. This game feels like the spot where Washington bottoms out. This is the first meeting between these two teams this year, and if indeed Washington continues to play without spirit, this should be a nice line for New York. For what it's worth, the Wizards, one of the worst ATS wagers in the NBA (17-27-1 ATS), are 3-8 ATS on the second half of back-to-backs. Yeah, I know, not surprising. I lean to the Knicks even though they burned me on Thursday. I have very weak feelings on the total, and given the teams involved, I have to take a teeny tiny lean to the Under, but for flimsy reasons, at best.
Heat @ Bucks - This line is OFF. And, while Dwyane Wade played last night in Detroit (and was able to rest quite a bit), he was seen in visible pain, and I'm just not sure that anyone, even oddsmakers, know where to open this one up. These teams haven't played this year, so there's no prior meeting to base numbers upon, and we have no idea if Dwyane Wade or Michael Beasley will play, two guys that could create about a 4-point swing in the spread, depending on health. You guys know how I feel about trying to throw darts at a game that involves crucial injury issues, but I'll break this thing down, anyway. The Heat, as we just saw, are coming off annihilating the Pistons in Motown, embarrassing Detroit by 27 points while holding them to just 65 points in the entire game. You guys know how I enjoy looking at teams that got shown up at home, but that's when we look at Detroit; this is our look at Miami. The Heat snapped a 2-game losing streak with this easy win, and now they turn their attention on a very strong home team in Milwaukee. The Bucks, a team we've been playing quite a bit lately, have covered 6 straight games while going just 3-3 SU but outperforming the line each and every night. Conveniently, they lost the 3 of those games played on the road and won all 3 at home. The Bucks are 13-8 ATS on their own court, where they shoot the ball from outside very, very well, and that could really come in handy in this one. If the Heat have tired legs and can't quite get out to cover shooters, someone like a Carlos Delfino could potentially have a field day. I lean Milwaukee until they look like they're slowing down. We must be careful, though, as these teams play one another again in Miami in 2 days. Maybe it's best to just wait and play the opposite team in the second game. Still, I like the home teams to win both games in this home-and-home, and I lean Bucks and Over.
Blazers @ Mavericks - Dallas by 8.5 with a total of 193. That's a lot of points for the Mavs to give away, considering their home situation. I realize that Portland beat Dallas here earlier this year, so there is going to be some revenge of a home loss for the Mavs, but Dallas has just not shown me anything on the defensive end lately, and with Portland on a back-to-back, I think this line is getting needlessly inflated. The Blazers covered in Houston last night, as I suspected they would, and now they can flex their back-to-back muscles, a situation that Portland has not been opposed to this year. In fact, the Blazers are a strong 7-3 ATS in these spots, playing roughly the same on day 1 as day 2, and thus the 2 bonus points given to them by the oddsmakers end up giving the Blazers all kinds of line value. Now, don't get me wrong, Portland has lost 3 straight, and they've looked outmanned doing it, but the Roy-less Blazers are suddenly a gold mine for line value, assuming they put together even 36 minutes of decent basketball. Dallas is a miserable 5-16 ATS in home games, and giving away almost 10 points is just no way for the Mavs to get a cover. And no, I don't think this is a trap to take the road team, since nobody wants to take Portland without Brandon Roy. I lean Dallas to win, and Portland to cover. I also like the Over - these teams played to just 166 points the last time they met on a total of 187.5, and oddsmakers bumped this number UP to 193; if that's not fishy, I don't know what is.
Bobcats @ Kings - Charlotte by 1 with a total of 196. As I begin typing this paragraph, Charlotte is engaged in a 4th quarter battle with the Warriors, and leading Golden State by a healthy margin. It makes a man think, really. Both teams in this game are going to be on the second half of a back-to-back, with Charlotte going road-to-road, and of course, Sacramento going road-to-home. Sacramento is 3-6-2 ATS on the tail end of back-to-backs, but are actually 3-2 SU when going away-to-home in these situations. Still, the narrow cover in Utah is a huge rarity for this team. The Kings are now 3-10 ATS in January, and 1-8 ATS against Southeast division opponents, so this does not shape up well for them. I keep waiting for the Kings to "bottom out", but I'm not sure that situation has presented itself yet. They didn't look good at all against Utah, allowing Paul Millsap to thoroughly dominate the game, and while Kevin Martin is back, Jason Thompson has hit something of a wall. I'm not sure I can legitimately tell anyone to back the Kings here, even though they're probably the sharp choice. Charlotte is 9-3 ATS on back-to-back game twos, so they're a strong choice for this situation, too. Most people thought they'd be in a letdown spot against Golden State last night, but clearly that was not the case. This is a team growing together by the day, and they're learning how to play on the road, suddenly making them a very dangerous team. Charlotte got out to a huge lead over Sacramento when they played a couple weeks ago, and nearly blew it, and that game does throw a wrinkle into things, here. Sure, the Kings are on revenge, but at the same time, I think Charlotte is going to want to prove that they're better than they showed in the second half of that game at home. I lean Charlotte, despite the difficulty of playing in Arco and revenge, and I lean Under on the side, as I see the Bobcats trying to slow things down, and I don't see the Kings energized enough or cogent enough to push through the Bobcats strong defense.