Saturday's Best NBA Bets
Memphis Grizzlies at Charlotte Bobcats (-5, 201.5)
When you think Carolina basketball, what’s the first thing that comes to mind?
Is it Michael Jordan? How about the North Carolina Tar Heels? Maybe you’re reminded of the Hornets of old?
The Charlotte Bobcats have never had an NBA all-star since the team’s inception in 2004. Gerald Wallace, the last original Bobcat, has had to suffer through plenty of awful Bobcat teams but manages to put up big numbers year in and year out.
So far, Wallace is averaging 18.3 points and 11.8 rebounds per game. His attitude combined with his athleticism makes Wallace the team’s most spectacular player.
"I've been doing this a long, long time. He's as good a teammate as I've ever coached,” coach Larry Brown told reporters about Wallace. “And he's figured it out. He rebounds every ball. He treats every shot like a missed shot. He doesn't take possessions off. He's improved his outside shot and his free throws. He doesn't gamble as much defensively. There's not one part of his game in which I haven't seen great growth."
Wallace has benefitted from new teammates Stephen Jackson and Flip Murray and has his squad sitting seventh in the Eastern Conference. He sets the tone defensively for the Cats, which allow a league-best 93 points per game.
The Grizzlies may be playing better basketball but like the old saying goes: Offense sells tickets, defense wins championships.
Although Charlotte is still far from a championship run, they do have the players and tools set in place to win.
Pick: Bobcats
Minnesota Timberwolves at Chicago Bulls (-8.5, 201)
The Minnesota Timberwolves are the cellar dwellers of the Western Conference. They have yet to reach double digits in the win column and have had to deal with major injuries to core players.
One would presume that head coach Kurt Rambis must have regrets about taking over such a young team. The truth is, Rambis takes pleasure in the fact that he sees his players working hard despite all the losses.
"This was a good decision for me," Rambis told reporters. "I enjoy these guys. I get along with all the players. I like the fact that they're still working hard to try and improve. That's all I can ask of them."
The Wolves have had to sacrifice short-term results to grow their nucleus and build for the future. They respect their coach and they play for their coach. The same can’t be said for Bulls coach Vinny Del Negro, who has been on the hot seat for quite some time now.
Not many people thought Del Negro would survive into 2010. This game just might be the nail in the coffin.
Pick: Timberwolves
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Charlotte Bobcats
The Memphis Grizzlies and the Charlotte Bobcats will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Time Warner Cable Arena.
The Grizzlies downed the Jazz, winning 91-89 at the FedExForum Friday night.
Utah covered as a 4.5-point road underdog while the final score played UNDER the 204-point total.
Stephen Jackson had a team-high 26 points in Charlotte's 97-93 loss to New York on Thursday night.
The Knicks managed to cover the 3-point spread in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the night's posted total (199).
Team records:
Memphis: 18-17 SU, 19-16 ATS
Charlotte: 15-19 SU, 21-13 ATS
Memphis most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 3-7
Before playing LA Clippers are 4-6
After playing Utah are 3-7
After a win are 6-4
Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 4-6
Before playing Houston are 2-8
After playing New York are 4-6
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Memphis's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Memphis's last 8 games
Memphis is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Charlotte is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Charlotte is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Charlotte is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Charlotte's last 9 games
Next up:
Memphis home to LA Clippers, Tuesday, January 12
Charlotte home to Houston, Tuesday, January 12
Atlanta Hawks vs. Orlando Magic
Divisional bragging rights will be on the line on Saturday when the Atlanta Hawks and the Orlando Magic meet at Amway Arena.
The Hawks got a statement win over the Celtics, winning 93-85 at Philips Arena Friday night.
Atlanta covered as a 3.5-point home favorites while the final score played UNDER the 195-point total
The Magic were caught off guard by the reeling Wizards, losing 104-97 at the Verizon Center Friday night.
Washington covered as a 7.5-point home underdog while the final score played UNDER the 204-point total.
Current streak:
Atlanta has won 2 straight games.
Orlando has lost 4 straight games.
Team records:
Atlanta: 23-12 SU, 24-11 ATS
Orlando: 24-12 SU, 17-17-2 ATS
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 5-5
Before playing Boston are 7-3
After playing Boston are 6-4
After a win are 6-4
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 9-1
Before playing Sacramento are 4-6
After playing Washington are 7-3
After a loss are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
Atlanta is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Orlando is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Orlando is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Orlando is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Orlando is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home
Next up:
Atlanta at Boston, Monday, January 11
Orlando at Sacramento, Tuesday, January 12
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Detroit Pistons
The Philadelphia 76ers and the Detroit Pistons will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at The Palace of Auburn Hills.
The Sixers gave up a 3-point play to Chris Bosh in the final seconds, losing 108-106 to the Raptors at the Wachovia Center Friday.
Toronto covered as a 2-point road underdog while the final score played OVER the 208-point total.
The Pistons lost 112-92 to the Spurs last time out, as 10-point underdogs. That game's combined score sailed OVER the posted total of 188.
Richard Hamilton led the Pistons with a game-high 29 points.
Current streak:
Philadelphia has lost 2 straight games.
Detroit has lost 11 straight games.
Team records:
Philadelphia: 10-25 SU, 14-21 ATS
Detroit: 11-23 SU, 15-18-1 ATS
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 5-5
Before playing New Orleans are 1-9
After playing Toronto are 5-5
After a loss are 4-6
Detroit most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 6-4
Before playing Chicago are 4-6
After playing San Antonio are 7-3
After a loss are 0-10
A few trends to consider:
Philadelphia is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Detroit
Philadelphia is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
Detroit is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
Next up:
Philadelphia home to New Orleans, Monday, January 11
Detroit at Chicago, Monday, January 11
Indiana Pacers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
The Indiana Pacers and the Oklahoma City Thunder will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Ford Center.
The Pacers handed the Timberwolves a rare victory, losing 116-109 at the Target Center Friday night.
Minnesota covered as a 3-point home favorite while the final score played OVER the 212-point total.
Kevin Durant poured in a game-high 27 points in the Thunder's 97-92 loss to the Hornets on Wednesday. The Thunder were 4-point underdogs in that game, while the teams played UNDER the posted total of 192.5.
Team records:
Indiana: 11-24 SU, 13-22 ATS
Oklahoma City: 19-16 SU, 21-14 ATS
Indiana most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 2-8
Before playing Toronto are 4-6
After playing Minnesota are 5-5
After a loss are 3-7
Oklahoma City most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 0-10
Before playing New York are 4-6
After playing New Orleans are 2-8
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Indiana's last 12 games when playing Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indiana's last 7 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games
Indiana is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Oklahoma City
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Oklahoma City's last 12 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games when playing at home against Indiana
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City's last 5 games at home
Oklahoma City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indiana
Next up:
Indiana home to Toronto, Monday, January 11
Oklahoma City home to New York, Monday, January 11
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Chicago Bulls
The Minnesota Timberwolves and the Chicago Bulls will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at United Center.
The Timberwolves got a rare win, taking a 116-109 victory over the Pacers at the Target Center Friday night.
Minnesota covered as a 3-point home favorite while the final score played OVER the 212-point total.
The Bulls lost a close 96-93 contest to the Bucks at the Bradley Center Friday night.
Chicago covered as a 4-point road underdog while the final score played UNDER the 193-point total.
Current streak:
Chicago has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Minnesota: 8-29 SU, 17-19-1 ATS
Chicago: 14-20 SU, 14-18-2 ATS
Minnesota most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 1-9
Before playing Denver are 2-8
After playing Indiana are 3-7
After a win are 2-8
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 3-7
Before playing Detroit are 5-5
After playing Milwaukee are 6-4
After a loss are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Minnesota is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Chicago is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
Next up:
Minnesota at Denver, Monday, January 11
Chicago home to Detroit, Monday, January 11
New York Knicks vs. Houston Rockets
The New York Knicks and the Houston Rockets will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Toyota Center.
Wilson Chandler led the way with 27 points on Thursday night as the Knicks picked up a 97-93 win over the Bobcats.
The Knicks managed to cover the 3-point spread in that contest, while the combined score fell UNDER the night's posted total (199).
The Rockets were defeated 118-110 by the Suns last time out, as a 4.5-point underdog. That game's 228 points sailed OVER the posted total of 216.
Carl Landry had a double-double with 31 points and 10 rebounds for the Rockets, while Aaron Brooks added 34 points in the loss.
Current streak:
New York has won 3 straight games.
Houston has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
New York: 15-20 SU, 18-17 ATS
Houston: 20-16 SU, 20-16 ATS
New York most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 5-5
Before playing Oklahoma City are 7-3
After playing Charlotte are 2-8
After a win are 7-3
Houston most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 8-2
Before playing Charlotte are 6-4
After playing Phoenix are 4-6
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
New York is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
New York is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New York's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New York's last 9 games on the road
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Houston is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing New York
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New York
Next up:
New York at Oklahoma City, Monday, January 11
Houston at Charlotte, Tuesday, January 12
Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks
The Utah Jazz and the Dallas Mavericks will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at American Airlines Center.
The Jazz fell to the Grizzlies 91-89 at the FedExForum Friday night.
Utah covered as a 4.5-point road underdog while the final score played UNDER the 204-point total.
The Mavericks took down state rivals, the Spurs, 112-103 at the AT&T Center Friday night.
Dallas covered as a 4.5-point road underdog while the final score played OVER the 194.5-point total.
Current streak:
Dallas has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Utah: 19-17 SU, 20-16 ATS
Dallas: 25-11 SU, 18-18 ATS
Utah most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 6-4
Before playing Miami are 5-5
After playing Memphis are 7-3
After a loss are 7-3
Dallas most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 6-4
Before playing LA Lakers are 7-3
After playing San Antonio are 7-3
After a win are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Utah's last 8 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Utah is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 6 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Utah
Dallas is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home
Next up:
Utah home to Miami, Monday, January 11
Dallas home to LA Lakers, Wednesday, January 13
Denver Nuggets vs. Sacramento Kings
The Denver Nuggets and the Sacramento Kings will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at ARCO Arena.
The Nuggets held off LeBron James and the Cavaliers for a 99-97 win at the Pepsi Center Friday night.
Denver covered as a 4-point home underdog while the final score played under the 202.5-point total.
The Kings fell to the Warriors, 108-101, at ORACLE Arena Friday night.
Golden State covered as a 4.5-point home favorite while the final score played UNDER the 229-point total.
Current streak:
Denver has won 2 straight games.
Sacramento has lost 5 straight games.
Team records:
Denver: 23-13 SU, 17-19 ATS
Sacramento: 14-21 SU, 19-15-1 ATS
Denver most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 5-5
Before playing Minnesota are 8-2
After playing Cleveland are 6-4
After a win are 6-4
Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 4-6
Before playing Orlando are 3-7
After playing Golden State are 4-6
After a loss are 4-6
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Sacramento
Denver is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Sacramento
Denver is 5-9-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Sacramento
Sacramento is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Sacramento's last 9 games at home
Sacramento is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Denver
Next up:
Denver home to Minnesota, Monday, January 11
Sacramento home to Orlando, Tuesday, January 12
NBA RoundUp For 1/9
By Dan Bebe
Hawks @ Magic - Orlando by 4 with a total of 196.5. Do the Magic really deserve to be 4-point favorites to anybody right now? This team is just playing horrid basketball, losing again tonight to the lowly Wizards. Atlanta, meanwhile, picked up a key home win over the Celtics, outplaying Boston in the second half of their game tonight. Both of these teams are coming off games last night, but appear to be headed in opposite directions. Of course, it's important to note that the Magic could very well have been looking ahead to this game, and the Hawks, playing the Celtics, really didn't have that advantage. It's tough to go to the numbers on a game like this one, since both teams are coming off a contest last night, and trends sort of go out the window. What's important is (a) how these teams do on back-to-backs, and (b) how they've done against each other. The Magic are 3-5 on the second day of a back-to-back, so they don't generally handle the situation all that well, and are just 1-2 when that second game falls at home. More interestingly, though, all 3 of those home halves have gone Over the total. The Hawks, on the other hand, is 5-4 in back-to-back second games, 6-3 ATS, and they're 3-2 when they travel from home to the road for those second games. They also seem to play to the Over on the second game of a back-to-back. I lean Atlanta, and I lean Over, and by the way, Orlando beat the pants off Atlanta in Atlanta in a game that went 30 points under a 199 total.
Grizzlies @ Bobcats - Bobcats by 5 with a total of 201. Dare we go against the team we backed last night? I feel like that's the age old issue of the public bettor, but my initial feeling is that the Grizzlies expended MORE than their normal allotment of energy in last night's win over the Jazz. That double-revenge (this year), and 9-loss revenge against the Jazz was a huge emotional game for Memphis, and now they have to go back out on the road immediately after the game and fly East to Charlotte. Memphis is 0-7 this year on back-to-backs, and I believe that's why we're seeing such a large spread on this game, despite the relative closeness of the two teams' skill levels. Charlotte is still one of the league's scariest teams to play in their building, and their 21-13 ATS mark on the season (10-6 at home) is a clear indicator that the public still doesn't like this team, and the oddsmakers are way off on the line and no one seems to care. Obviously, with this team, playing them every game would have been a perfectly good time, but as long as we're going to try to nail the plays at the perfect time, I can't help but think Charlotte would be a decent play today. The Grizzlies are getting tougher on the road as the season progresses, but situationally this is a nightmare spot for them, and it's a fairly standard spot for Charlotte. I lean Bobcats, and I like the Under because of Charlotte's defense, but I like the Over because the Grizzlies play zero defense on the second day of back-to-backs. No lean on the total.
Sixers @ Pistons - This line is OFF. I'm pretty curious where this line opens up, given the Sixers continue to lose at home, cover on the road, and the Pistons are significantly better at home. So we have two teams that excel in the environment at hand, and oddsmakers continuing to value the Pistons as if all their pieces were healthy and playing well. The Pistons have lost 11 straight games, covering just one of those contests, but it's clear they're getting closer. That being said, you guys that follow my logic know I hate to try to predict the day a streak comes to an end, and this falls into that category. That's not to say I would never make a play on a game like this one, but it would have to take a pretty snazzy line and some awfully favorable line movement to push me through. Will the Pistons ever win? This is one of those games where I imagine they'll come out as a small favorite, a situation in which they're actually 5-4 this year, and hell, this might be the day, but it's a ballsy play, that's for sure. Neither of these teams is really going to be the value play, but Philadelphia has lost to Detroit twice already this year, so there may be a little revenge angle in play. Philly is 5-3 ATS on the second day of a back-to-back (1-7 SU, so it's usually that they cover) -- I lean Philly, and I like the Over, since I feel the line will come out pretty low, and if you like the Sixers to give a decent effort, you like the Over.
Pacers @ Thunder - This line is OFF. Going to be a tough one for the Pacers, that's how we're starting this write-up. Indiana got spanked in Minnesota as the Wolves got their revenge, and now the Pacers have to try to tackle the surging Thunder on the second day of a back-to-back. My biggest concern is Kevin Durant's ankle, which is apparently mildly sprained, and I imagine this line is off precisely because of his status. I find these dog days just after the New Year to be a fairly tough time, because there are so many guys getting hurt, and we have to try to guess, at times, how a team is going to react to their absence or presence. Certainly, without Kevin Durant, I cannot advise backing the Thunder, but if he says he's good to go, I'll believe him, and that makes the Thunder a very interesting play. The Pacers are about as bad on back-to-backs as they are in normal circumstances, and the returning injured players won't help much as their sore spots are likely to swell up a little after the first game back. The Thunder are coming off a home loss to the surging Hornets, and I can't help but think this is a nice bounce-back spot, a "get fat" spot like the one I spoke of with Atlanta a few days ago against the Nets. Indiana on a back-to-back is a strong Under play, but let's get a good look at the line before we make a decision.
Wolves @ Bulls - Chicago by 8.5 with a total of 200. This line looks pretty high, but the Wolves have been pretty terrible lately, and the Bulls are playing on 3 days rest, a situation where they're a perfect 3-0 ATS this year. This is one of those games where the well-rested team knows the other is tired from a game and from traveling, and if Chicago were so inclined, they could, and SHOULD, try to run the ball down Minnesota's throat. I think we'll see a monster free throw discrepancy, and I think Chicago has a nice shot of winning this game by 10-13 points, or thereabouts. The Bulls have covered 5 of 6 games, but this is pretty close to the most they've been favored by all season long. The Bulls have been pretty successful SU as favorites, but haven't been able to cover the big numbers on those wins. My initial feeling though, is that despite Minnesota's home win over the Pacers, they are not playing good ball, snapping an 0-3 ATS skid with last night's win, and I believe it was a one-night revenge-game flash in the pan. I lean Chicago on the big spread, and I lean Over, as Minnesota is trying to make games as crazy-fast as humanly possible, and they've been known to really open the lane on defense in back-to-backs.
Jazz @ Mavs - This line is OFF. This should be a good one. The Mavs are going to have another chance to try to cover at home after picking up a solid road win. I mean, you want to talk about a team that is developing a clear trend (and one we're not exploiting; I take responsibility for that), the Mavs are now 13-6 ATS on the road, 5-12 ATS at home! That is just outrageous, and I think we're in another decent fade spot here. The Mavs knocked off the Spurs by 9 in a high-scoring game in San Antonio, once again winning as a road dog (6-3 ATS in such a spot now). They are 1-0 at home as a dog, too, so this team is clearly one that takes big games seriously. For what it's worth, that makes them 4-12 as a home favorite. Both of these teams played last night, Utah losing a tough one in Memphis, and I think we'll see another strong effort from the Jazz, who really played 36 good minutes of basketball. They outscored the Grizz by 17 from the 2nd quarter on, but the 19-point 1st quarter hole was too much to overcome (though they did cover the spread by a point, grrrr). I lean Jazz to cover what's sure to be a bigger than expected spread (also a revenge game for Utah, losing by 11 in Dallas earlier this year), and I'm waiting on the total. Last meeting went WAY under 202.5, so I think we'll see this one open up in the high-190's.
Knicks @ Rockets - This line is OFF. The Rockets have dinked and clunked their way into the new decade with 3 straight losses and 3 straight failed covers, but perhaps this is the spot to get the ship righted. Still, it won't be simple. The Rockets 3 losses SU and ATS have all come on the road, where they have fallen to 10-12, also both SU and ATS. At home, though, the Rockets are 10-4 SU and ATS (yes, I realize it's weird that their SU and ATS records match up perfectly), and despite just the 5-point home/road splits, the Rockets seem to play just well enough to get the job done at home, and just well enough to clear the spread. The Rockets will have a few days off after this game, though that could be interpreted 2 ways - either you feel the team will play their butts off knowing they have time to recover, or they might just float through this game looking ahead to a few days of practice and relaxation. On the other side, though, the Knicks are embarking on a 3-game road trip that takes them through Houston, Oklahoma City, and then Philadelphia, a strange set of games. The Knicks have shot over 50% in all 3 games in 2010, and have pushed their home record up to 9-10. This team is getting a ton of credit right now, and based on perception alone, I have to lean Houston. I realize they're in their first game off a long road trip, but they're 3-0 ATS in that spot so far this year, so this team is mostly unhindered by the so-called sluggishness. I imagine we'll see a line with the Rockets favored by somewhere in the 4-6 realm, and a total near 200.
Nuggets @ Kings - This line is OFF. Another game without a line. Exactly what a frustrated handicapper doesn't want to see! How about those Nuggets, eh? Without Carmelo, a 2-point win over the visiting Cavaliers, and then onto a plane for a game in Northern California. The Kings come home after positively melting down in the 4th quarter last night. I hate to be the bearer of Marco-related advice, but momentum does tend to carry over in back-to-back situations. I fear the Kings may stink it up in the 1st half of this game before potentially turning it back on for the second half. The Nuggets will potentially have the energy for a strong first half, but we may see them fall apart a bit late. This game has a ton of value for half bettors, but in terms of the entire contest, we've got a Nuggets team that just can't do anything on the road (8-10 SU, 7-11 ATS), against a Sacramento club that appears to be slowing markedly: they've lost 5 in a row now, covering just 1 of those 5 games, and I think we'll get some nice value with Sacramento here off the loss in Golden State. I lean Sactown, even though they beat the Nuggets only a few weeks ago. I think the revenge will be a stronger angle when the Kings travel to Denver, but this one is more a situation lean. Denver has been decent on back-to-backs this year, playing slightly to the Over, but this is another game where we can base a ton off what happened last time. The last game went Under 212 by 5 points, so if this line opens anywhere north of 212, we know what the oddsmakers are thinking.
Trend Report - Saturday
By Ed Meyer
Grizzlies at Bobcats - The Grizzlies are 0-7-1 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since February 13, 2006 off a win of four points or fewer in which they held a double digit lead. The Bobcats are 8-0-1 ATS (7.6 ppg) since November 23, 2005 as a favorite after a road loss in which they were outshot by at least 10 percent.
Timberwolves at Bulls - The Timberwolves are 0-11-1 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since March 21, 2002 on the road off a home win that broke at least a three-game losing streak. The Timberwolves are 0-9-1 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since March 15, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a win in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Bulls are 9-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since January 05, 2002 at home after a road loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight.
Nuggets at Kings - The Nuggets are 7-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since December 31, 2004 as a favorite when seeking revenge for a loss as a favorite in which they led by double digits. The League is 0-7 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since March 14, 2007 as a home dog with no rest off a road loss in which they led at the end of each of the first three quarters.
Hawks at Magic - The Hawks are 0-8 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since February 20, 2001 as a road dog when they shot at least 50% from the three-point-line in each of their last two games. The Magic are 9-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since April 18, 2005 at home with at most one day of rest after a game on the road after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent.
Jazz at Mavericks - The Jazz are 0-10 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since December 04, 2004 as a dog when they have a non-conference revenge game at home next. The Jazz are 8-0-1 ATS (8.8 ppg) since April 08, 2008 when they scored at least 25 fewer points in their previous game than in the game before. The Mavericks are 0-9 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since February 06, 2008 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a win in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average.
76ers at Pistons - The 76ers are 6-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since December 03, 2005 as a road dog with no rest off a loss in which they led at the end of the third quarter. The Pistons are 0-9 ATS (-14.3 ppg) since November 23, 2008 after a road loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them.
Knicks at Rockets - The Knicks are 8-0-1 ATS (8.8 ppg) since February 26, 2005 off a win as a home favorite in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Rockets are 9-0 ATS (5.4 ppg) since January 29, 2008 as a favorite after a loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Rockets are 9-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since December 12, 2007 after a game in which they has more than 10 refereed turnovers.
Pacers at Thunder - The League is 0-11 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since December 18, 2008 as a road dog with no rest after a road loss in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line.