N.Y. Yankees (8-3) at Philadelphia (8-3)
All tied at 1-1, the 2009 World Series shifts to Citizens Bank Park, where the host Phillies are scheduled to hand the ball to 2008 postseason hero Cole Hamels (11-12, 4.49 ERA), while the Yankees counter with veteran Andy Pettitte (16-8, 4.00) in another battle of southpaws.
After getting drubbed 6-1 in Game 1, the Yankees bounced back with a 3-1 victory in Game 2 on Thursday, getting solo homers from Mark Teixeira and Hideki Matsui to go with a stellar pitching performance from A.J. Burnett, who yielded one run on four hits while striking out nine over seven innings.
New York, back in the World Series for the first time since 2003, snapped a four-game World Series losing streak with Thursday’s win. The Yankees enter Game 3 on positive runs of 49-20 overall, 40-13 as a favorite, 11-4 as a road chalk, 6-1 against the N.L. East, 5-0 in interleague road games, 37-15 against left-handed starters, 9-3 versus lefties on the road and 5-2 on Saturday. However, while Joe Girardi’s team is 7-1 as a favorite in this postseason, it has dropped eight of its last 10 playoff road games and six of seven World Series roadies.
Philadelphia had a four-game World Series winning streak halted in Game 2, but is still 19-6 since the beginning of last year’s run to the World Series title, including winning 11 of 12 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park. Additionally, the Phillies are on positive runs of 36-15 overall at home, 11-3 as an underdog, 17-7 as a home ‘dog, 5-1 as a playoff pup, 38-14 after a day off and 37-16 versus southpaw starters. On the downside, Charlie Manuel’s squad has lost 10 of 14 interleague games (all versus the A.L. East), six straight interleague contests at home and six in a row on Saturday.
Philadelphia is now 3-2 against New York this year, with all five games played in the Bronx. Prior to this year, the Yankees had been 7-3 in interleague play against the Phillies going back to 1999. The visitor has won seven of the last 10 meetings, with the Yankees going 4-1 in their last five at Citizens Bank Park.
Pettitte delivered three straight quality starts in the first two rounds of the playoffs, going 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA. He pitched 6 1/3 innings in all three games while surrendering a total of five runs, 17 hits and three walks while striking out 15. The 37-year-old veteran has given up three earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts, but New York is just 3-4 during this stretch. Despite that fact, behind Pettitte, the Yankees are on upticks of 10-4 overall, 8-1 as a favorite, 38-18 as a road chalk and 18-6 against the A.L. East.
Including two playoff outings, Pettitte is 9-4 with a 3.61 ERA in 18 road starts, with New York going 12-6. He’s made seven career starts against Philadelphia, going 2-2 with a 3.67 ERA, including 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two games at Citizens Bank Park. Finally, Pettitte holds the record for most postseason victories, as he’s 16-9 with a 3.83 ERA in 38 career playoff starts.
Hamels was magnificent in October during the Phillies’ championship season last year, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five starts, including 1-0 with a 2.77 ERA in two World Series outings (both Phillies wins). However, last year’s NLCS and World Series MVP has struggled this postseason, going 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in three starts (one against Colorado, two against Los Angeles), but his team won the two NLCS contests against the Dodgers. Hamels has gone six straight starts without a quality outing, giving up 24 runs (all earned) in 31 1/3 innings (6.89 ERA).
Hamels yielded seven runs in 9 1/3 innings in his two playoff home starts, and including those contests, he’s 7-6 with a 4.00 ERA in Philadelphia this season. The San Diego native has faced New York twice in his career, both times in interleague play (one home, one road), and he allowed two runs in each contest over 13 innings (2.77 ERA). On May 24 in the Bronx, Hamels held the Yankees to two runs on eight hits over six innings, getting a no-decision as the Phillies won 4-3 in extra innings.
All five meetings between these teams this season have stayed under the total, and the under is 4-1 in the last five clashes at Citizens Bank Park.
Despite staying low in the first two games of the World Series, Philadelphia still carries “over” trends of 18-6-2 overall, 6-2-1 in these playoffs, 3-0-1 at home, 8-1-1 after a defeat, 5-1 on Saturday, 4-1 after a day off and 6-0 in the third game of a series. With Hamels pitching, the over is on streaks of 4-1-1 overall, 4-1-1 as an underdog and 7-2-1 on Saturday, but the under is 5-1 in Hamels’ last six interleague starts (all against the A.L. East).
The Yankees continue to cash “under” tickets, as the low side is on runs of 7-2-1 overall, 17-6 in interleague play, 16-6 versus the A.L. East, 7-1-1 as a playoff chalk, 4-1 versus lefty starters, 16-5 in the World Series, 7-3 in World Series road games, 16-5-2 as a favorite, 6-1-1 after an off day and 16-4-2 after a victory. Also, with Pettitte on the mound, New York is on “under” rolls of 46-20-3 overall, 34-15-2 on the road, 37-16-1 as a favorite, 15-5-1 in interleague action and 10-2 against the N.L. East.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER