Utah Jazz vs. Charlotte Bobcats
The Utah Jazz and the Charlotte Bobcats will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Time Warner Cable Arena.
The Jazz were defeated 96-83 by the Hawks last time out, as 6-point underdogs. That game's combined score went UNDER the posted total of 207.
Eric Maynor had 11 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists for the Jazz in the loss.
The Bobcats fell 101-98 to the Pacers last time out, as 3.5-point underdogs. The game's 199 points made it OVER the posted total of 194.
Gerald Wallace netted a game-high 29 points and hauled down 12 rebounds in a double-double in the loss.
Team records:
Utah: 15-11 SU, 14-12 ATS
Charlotte: 10-14 SU, 15-9 ATS
Utah most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 8-2
Before playing Orlando are 2-8
After playing Atlanta are 2-8
After a loss are 9-1
Charlotte most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 7-3
Before playing New York are 5-5
After playing Indiana are 4-6
After a loss are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games when playing Charlotte
Utah is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
Utah is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Utah is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Charlotte's last 8 games
Charlotte is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Charlotte is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing Utah
Next up:
Utah at Orlando, Monday, December 21
Charlotte at New York, Sunday, December 20
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Orlando Magic
The Portland Trail Blazers and the Orlando Magic will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Amway Arena.
The Trail Blazers dominated the fourth quarter and rallied for a 105-102 victory over the Suns on Thursday. The Trail Blazers covered the 1.5-point spread, while the 207 points made it OVER the posted total of 203.
Brandon Roy led the way with 27 points and eight assists, and Jerryd Bayliss added a game-high 28 in that win.
The Magic were defeated 104-86 by the Heat on Thursday, as 4-point favorites. That game's 190 points went UNDER the posted total of 199.
Dwight Howard had 17 points and 14 rebounds for a double-double in the loss.
Current streak:
Portland has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Portland: 16-11 SU, 14-13 ATS
Orlando: 19-7 SU, 14-11-1 ATS
Portland most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 3-7
Before playing Miami are 6-4
After playing Phoenix are 7-3
After a win are 5-5
Orlando most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 4-6
Before playing Utah are 4-6
After playing Miami are 6-4
After a loss are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games
Portland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Portland's last 5 games on the road
Portland is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Orlando is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Orlando's last 6 games at home
Orlando is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Portland
Orlando is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Portland
Next up:
Portland at Miami, Sunday, December 20
Orlando home to Utah, Monday, December 21
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Philadelphia 76ers
The Los Angeles Clippers and the Philadelphia 76ers will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Wachovia Center.
The Clippers were defeated 95-91 by the Knicks last time out, as 2-point underdogs. That game's 186 points went UNDER the posted total of 202.
Chris Kaman had 20 points and nine rebounds in the loss.
The 76ers outlasted the Celtics in the fourth quarter and came away with a hard-fought 98-97 win on Friday as 11.5-point underdogs. That game's 195 points went as a PUSH against the posted total of 195.
Elton Brand had 23 points and eight rebounds, while Andre Iguodala chipped in with 18 points.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 11-14 SU, 9-16 ATS
Philadelphia: 7-19 SU, 11-15 ATS
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 4-6
Before playing San Antonio are 2-8
After playing New York are 3-7
After a loss are 6-4
Philadelphia most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 5-5
Before playing Washington are 4-6
After playing Boston are 7-3
After a win are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the LA Clippers last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
LA Clippers are 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
LA Clippers are 5-20 SU in their last 25 games on the road
Philadelphia is 11-1 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against LA Clippers
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing LA Clippers
Philadelphia is 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing LA Clippers
Next up:
LA Clippers at San Antonio, Monday, December 21
Philadelphia at Washington, Tuesday, December 22
Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls
The Atlanta Hawks and the Chicago Bulls will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at United Center.
The Hawks dominated in the third quarter and pulled ahead for a convincing 96-83 victory over the Jazz on Friday. The Hawks covered the 6-point spread, while the game's combined score went UNDER the posted total of 207.
Josh Smith led the way for the Hawks with 16 points, eight rebounds, and five assists.
The Bulls roared back in the fourth quarter and defeated the Knicks 98-89 on Thursday. The Bulls covered the 2.5-point spread, but the combined 187 points went UNDER the posted total of 202.
Luol Deng collected a double-double with 22 points and 12 rebounds for the Bulls, while John Salmons chipped in with 18.
Current streak:
Atlanta has won 6 straight games.
Team records:
Atlanta: 19-6 SU, 19-6 ATS
Chicago: 9-15 SU, 7-15-2 ATS
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 7-3
Before playing Minnesota are 4-6
After playing Utah are 5-5
After a win are 7-3
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 4-6
Before playing Sacramento are 5-5
After playing New York are 5-5
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games at home
Chicago is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Chicago is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games at home
Next up:
Atlanta at Minnesota, Tuesday, December 22
Chicago home to Sacramento, Monday, December 21
Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls
The Atlanta Hawks and the Chicago Bulls will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at United Center.
The Hawks dominated in the third quarter and pulled ahead for a convincing 96-83 victory over the Jazz on Friday. The Hawks covered the 6-point spread, while the game's combined score went UNDER the posted total of 207.
Josh Smith led the way for the Hawks with 16 points, eight rebounds, and five assists.
The Bulls roared back in the fourth quarter and defeated the Knicks 98-89 on Thursday. The Bulls covered the 2.5-point spread, but the combined 187 points went UNDER the posted total of 202.
Luol Deng collected a double-double with 22 points and 12 rebounds for the Bulls, while John Salmons chipped in with 18.
Current streak:
Atlanta has won 6 straight games.
Team records:
Atlanta: 19-6 SU, 19-6 ATS
Chicago: 9-15 SU, 7-15-2 ATS
Atlanta most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 7-3
Before playing Minnesota are 4-6
After playing Utah are 5-5
After a win are 7-3
Chicago most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 4-6
Before playing Sacramento are 5-5
After playing New York are 5-5
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games at home
Chicago is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Chicago is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games at home
Next up:
Atlanta at Minnesota, Tuesday, December 22
Chicago home to Sacramento, Monday, December 21
Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Jersey Nets
The Los Angeles Lakers and the New Jersey Nets will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at Izod Center.
Pau Gasol netted 26 points with 22 reboiunds for a double-double as the Lakers defeated the Bucks 107-106 in overtime on Wednesday. The Lakers failed to convert the 5-point spread, while the 213 points sailed OVER the posted total of 198.5.
Kobe Bryant poured in a game-high 39 points in that win.
The Nets were tore apart 118-95 by the Raptors on Friday, as a 7.5-point road underdog. That game's 213 points sailed OVER the posted total of 204.
Chris Douglas-Roberts shot 7-for-12 from the field with 16 points in the loss.
Current streak:
Los Angeles has won 2 straight games.
New Jersey has lost 6 straight games.
Team records:
Los Angeles: 20-4 SU, 10-14 ATS
New Jersey: 2-25 SU, 8-18-1 ATS
Los Angeles most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 8-2
Before playing Detroit are 8-2
After playing Milwaukee are 5-5
After a win are 9-1
New Jersey most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 7-3
Before playing Minnesota are 5-5
After playing Toronto are 5-5
After a loss are 2-8
A few trends to consider:
LA Lakers are 13-1 SU in their last 14 games
LA Lakers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing New Jersey
LA Lakers are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing New Jersey
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the LA Lakers last 7 games when playing on the road against New Jersey
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New Jersey's last 7 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of New Jersey's last 19 games at home
New Jersey is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New Jersey is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Next up:
LA Lakers at Detroit, Sunday, December 20
New Jersey home to Minnesota, Wednesday, December 23
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Houston Rockets
The fans at Toyota Center will be treated to a game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Houston Rockets when they take their seats on Saturday.
Kevin Durant dropped 27 points and grabbed six rebounds as the Thunder defeated the Pistons 109-98 on Friday. The Thunder covered the 4.5-point spread, while the 207 points sailed OVER the posted total of 185.
Jeff Green netted 19 points, while Russell Westbrook and James Harden added 14 points apiece in that win.
Kyle Lowry dropped 26 points and dished out 10 assists to lead the Rockets in a 116-108 overtime win over the Mavericks on Friday. The Rockets won the game as 5.5-point underdogs, while the 224 points sailed OVER the posted total of 199.
Aaron Brooks added 25 points for the Rockets, while Luis Scola had a double-double with 19 points and 10 rebounds.
Team records:
Oklahoma City: 13-12 SU, 15-10 ATS
Houston: 15-11 SU, 16-10 ATS
Oklahoma City most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 5-5
Before playing LA Lakers are 4-6
After playing Detroit are 2-8
After a win are 3-7
Houston most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 4-6
Before playing LA Clippers are 5-5
After playing Dallas are 7-3
After a win are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
Oklahoma City is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oklahoma City's last 7 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Oklahoma City's last 12 games when playing on the road against Houston
Oklahoma City is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City
Houston is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games at home
Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oklahoma City
Next up:
Oklahoma City at LA Lakers, Tuesday, December 22
Houston home to LA Clippers, Tuesday, December 22
Sacramento Kings vs. Milwaukee Bucks
The Sacramento Kings and the Milwaukee Bucks will both be gunning for a victory on Saturday when they meet at Bradley Center.
The Kings were defeated 112-96 by the Timberwolves last time out, as 2-point favorites. That game's 208 points fell UNDER the posted total of 210.
Jason Thompson had 18 points and nine rebounds for the Kings, while Omri Casspi added 21 in the loss.
The Bucks were defeated 85-82 by the Cavaliers last time out, as 9.5-point underdogs. The teams played UNDER the posted total of 194.
Ersan Ilyasova tossed in 18 points with seven rebounds for the Bucks in the loss.
Current streak:
Milwaukee has lost 2 straight games.
Team records:
Sacramento: 11-14 SU, 15-9-1 ATS
Milwaukee: 11-13 SU, 15-9 ATS
Sacramento most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 6-4
Before playing Chicago are 6-4
After playing Minnesota are 5-5
After a loss are 4-6
Milwaukee most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 1-9
Before playing Indiana are 3-7
After playing Cleveland are 4-6
After a loss are 3-7
A few trends to consider:
Sacramento is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Milwaukee
Sacramento is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Sacramento is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Sacramento's last 15 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games at home
Milwaukee is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Milwaukee is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home
Milwaukee is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Sacramento
Next up:
Sacramento at Chicago, Monday, December 21
Milwaukee at Indiana, Monday, December 21
Indiana Pacers vs. San Antonio Spurs
The Indiana Pacers and the San Antonio Spurs will both be trying to pick up a win on Saturday when they battle at AT&T Center.
The Pacers fell 107-94 to the Grizzlies last time out, as 6-point underdogs. That game's 201 points went UNDER the posted total of 209.5.
T.J. Ford and Mike Dunleavy netted 16 points apiece in the loss.
Tim Duncan poured in 27 points and hauled down 15 rebounds for a double-double on Wednesday, leading the Spurs to a 103-91 victory over the Warriors. The Spurs covered the 5.5-point spread, while the teams played UNDER the posted total of 214.
Richard Jefferson added 17 points for the Spurs, and Keith Bogans chipped in with 13 points in the win.
Team records:
Indiana: 9-15 SU, 9-15 ATS
San Antonio: 13-10 SU, 11-11-1 ATS
Indiana most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 4-6
Before playing Milwaukee are 4-6
After playing Memphis are 5-5
After a loss are 3-7
San Antonio most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 6-4
Before playing LA Clippers are 8-2
After playing Golden State are 6-4
After a win are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Indiana's last 14 games when playing San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 7 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Indiana is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Antonio
Indiana is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games
San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
San Antonio is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 12 of San Antonio's last 14 games when playing Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games
Next up:
Indiana home to Milwaukee, Monday, December 21
San Antonio home to LA Clippers, Monday, December 21
Washington Wizards vs. Phoenix Suns
The fans at US Airways Center will be treated to a game between the Washington Wizards and the Phoenix Suns when they take their seats on Saturday.
Gilbert Arenas poured in a game-high 45 points to lead the Wizards over the Warriors 118-109 on Friday. The Wizards won that game as a 3-point underdog, while the 227 points made it OVER the posted total of 221.5.
Caron Butler added 28 points and 10 rebounds for a double-double in the win.
The Suns were outlasted 105-102 by the Trail Blazers last time out, as 1.5-point underdogs. That game's 207 points made it OVER the posted total of 203.
Amare Stoudemire netted 27 points for the Suns, and Grant Hill collected 20 in the loss.
Team records:
Washington: 8-16 SU, 8-16 ATS
Phoenix: 17-9 SU, 15-10-1 ATS
Washington most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 4-6
Before playing Philadelphia are 1-9
After playing Golden State are 6-4
After a win are 2-8
Phoenix most recently:
When playing on Saturday are 4-6
Before playing Cleveland are 5-5
After playing Portland are 5-5
After a loss are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
Washington is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 9 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Washington is 5-17 SU in its last 22 games on the road
Washington is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Phoenix
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Washington
Phoenix is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Phoenix's last 10 games
Next up:
Washington home to Philadelphia, Tuesday, December 22
Phoenix home to Cleveland, Monday, December 21
NBA RoundUp For 12/19
By Dan Bebe
With most bettors focused on the start of bowl season, there's no better time for us to take advantage of the slightly softer lines in the NBA. Thus begins our metaphor-filled romp through the next few weeks, as we Go Bowling for Buckets!
Sixers/Clippers - This line is OFF (and I hope it stays that way). This is, flat out, a game where I'd have to see a line that was so far away from where I expect to even consider a wager on the side that I was almost tempted to just not do a write-up on it. But no! I have a sworn duty. Both of these teams are on the second half of a back-to-back situation, with the Clippers coming in from New York, where they lost by 4 (and failed to cover by a hair), and the Sixers return home from Boston after an outright upset of the Celtics. Now, the obvious conclusion here is that the Sixers are the hotter team, but let's remember how the public perceives value. The Sixers just beat the Celtics, and now they get to play at home? Well, we might very well see a slightly inflated line on this game, and get a little value with the visiting Clippers. Those of you that read yesterday's blog already know the notes I have on these teams in the home/road spots. The Sixers are actually better on the road than at home, and the Clippers aren't far behind in that category, so now, Philadephia is in the letdown spot after knocking off a title contender, and the Clippers are going to have the value. Still, the back-to-back makes me nervous. Philadelphia hasn't really had time to let the luster of a big win wear off, so they might very well come out and pummel LA. Precisely why, unless we see a monster line discrepancy, this game might best be avoided. I expect a fairly low total, as well, given the fatigue factor for both clubs.
Magic/Blazers - Orlando by 9 with a total of 194. Portland embarks upon a road trip that could either define them as a decent team, or set them back 4 games in the Western Conference standings. They play in Orlando tonight (as you can see), in Miami tomorrow, and then have a back-to-back in Dallas and San Antonio on Tuesday and Wednesday. So, we'll keep a close eye on Portland, since fatigue may set in over the course of the week. Still, this is a ton of points to give a visiting club on the first game of a road trip. Admittedly, the Blazers have been less than stellar away from home (6-7 SU), but they are above .500 ATS on the road, and they actually still have a positive end margin (+0.9) for road games. This tells us they've been able to cover as a road favorite, and as a big road dog, but not as a small road dog, since the losses are of smaller numerical size than the wins. So, how do we address this? Well, getting 9 points is a lot, so I have to look for a great many reasons to look at the favorite in a spot like this one. Orlando returns home after getting manhandled by the Heat, so they are going to be in an angry mood, and that certainly contributes to the large line. The Magic are also 9-2 at home, beating their opponents by an average of 10 points, so you can get an idea of how this line came to be. Still, this reasons aren't good enough for me, and yes, the line looks too good to be true for dog-backers, which makes me lean to, well, nothing, until we see some line action. Orlando also plays to the Over quite a bit at home, but I think this total is sharp to the mark.
Bobcats/Jazz - Bobcats by 3.5 with a total of 190.5. This is a bad spot for the Jazz, flat out. They come to Charlotte after getting knocked all over the arena in Atlanta last night in a blowout loss to a superior team. The bottom line is that the Jazz just do not play well on the road, and they're starting to settle back into their same old m.o. They are 4-7 SU away from home, and 4-7 ATS, so they continue to do all of their damage, SU and ATS, at home. We all know how Charlotte seems to spike the visiting clubhouse water (or something similar), because teams come into Charlotte and look like they're playing under water, and this might be an opportunity to capitalize. I absolutely love the fact that the initial move on this line was from 2 to 3 despite public action on Utah, though I must admit, I'm a tad surprised the public likes the Jazz so much after they got pummeled last night. Bottom line is that the public still doesn't respect the Bobcats, but Charlotte wins games at home (they're 9-3 SU in their own building), and they're 5-2 ATS as a favorite this year. I also like the Under in this one, as I see Charlotte imposing their tempo on the Jazz, and this one should be decided by a final score of Charlotte 95, Utah 87, though I'm not Miss Cleo or anything.
Nets/Lakers - This line is OFF. You can be damn sure that this is going to be a hefty sum. Arguably, the league's best team taking on the league's worst, though it is, at least, on the road. I expect we'll see a line of 9-11, or thereabouts. As you guys know, I'm not about to jump at the chance to take a road favorite of double digits, which I think this one will touch. The Lakers are coming off an emotional win over the Bucks, and while many folks think that might be a momentum boost going into the next game, I actually feel it may have the opposite effect. The Lakers know they can give half-effort and still find a way to win. They aren't going to take the Nets seriously, but then again, who does? Still, the Lakers are 5-2 SU on the road, but a miserable 1-6 ATS, so they're not really going for the jugular away from home, and it may have something to do with the fact that they haven't played that many road games, and hence haven't really gotten comfortable on the road. Whatever the case, the value is going to be with the big home dog, but unless we get some nice line movement, this is probably a side I'd avoid. I don't trust the Nets against anyone, not with a 6-game losing streak and an 8-18 ATS mark. I will consider an Over, since the Lakers defense isn't quite as strong on the road, but this game could be ugly.
Bulls/Hawks - Bulls getting 4.5 points at home with a total of 197. Looks a little too good to be true for the Hawks, doesn't it? Atlanta has won, and covered, 6 straight games, they are a ridiculous 18-6 ATS this season, and they're laying just 4.5 points against the 9-15 Bulls. The Hawks are winning at home and on the road, and the oddsmakers feel they're due for a clunker. I'm not sure I have the stones to go against Atlanta right now, since they most likely will equilibrate towards .500 ATS at some point this year, but trying to pick the day when it starts is, perhaps, asking a bit much. Given the line coming down from 5, though, despite nearly every member of the betting public putting their life savings on Atlanta. This game means more to the Bulls than it does to the Hawks, that's for sure, what with Chicago finally playing decent basketball in a 9-point win over the Knicks on Thursday. They're still just 3-6 in the month of December, and the 7-15-2 ATS mark dictates just how much of a group of underachievers this team really is. I lean to Chicago given the line and the movement and motivation factor, but it's tough to find fault with Atlanta's recent run of beatings. Atlanta did beat Utah soundly last night, so there may be some slight fatigue involved, but I can't imagine much, as the starters mostly played 25 minutes. I think this game could stay Under, as well, if Chicago can effectively slow things down.
Bucks/Kings - Milwaukee by 6 with a total of 207.5. This seems like a fairly large spread, given the situation. Both the Bucks and the Kings played last night, and both lost, though Milwaukee played better than expected in a low-scoring narrow defeat at the hands of the Cavaliers. Of course, we hit our first Pro Play on the Under in that game, after shying away from the side during the afternoon. Now, the Bucks come back home, where they play significantly better, as evidenced by their 9-4 home record and 2-9 road mark. Still, it's tough to know how they're going to respond after such a grueling, defensive game yesterday. I obviously prefer to take the home team when both squads played the night before, but I'm not sure I'm fully convinced either way. The Kings are pretty sad on the road, which certainly assists the Bucks cause in this one, as Sactown is still just 1-11 away from home and coming off a 16-point loss in Minnesota last night. They do not appear ready to make shots and handle the pressures of playing on the road, so I do lean to the home favorite in this one, and I like the Under, with both teams a little jelly-legged.
Spurs/Pacers - San Antonio by 12 with a total of 204. I can already tell everyone there's about a 2% chance I take a side on this game. The undermanned Pacers, on the road against a veteran Spurs team that plays very well at home. I think this spread is probably pretty accurate. The Pacers are coming off a 13-point loss in Memphis last night, and now have to try to get the energy back up for a weekend tilt in San Antonio; this does not look good for them. Indiana has indeed won 3 of 5 games, but the loss of Danny Granger will likely catch up with them in these tough buildings on the road. They just can't compete with these better teams, and that's that. San Antonio has won 4 of 5, and is coming off a nice road win in Golden State as part of a 2-1 road trip. Obviously, the one negative for the Spurs is that this is the start of a homestand, but they're 10-4 at home, 3-6 on the road, so you can see that the Spurs at home are not a good fade. In terms of the total at 204, I think we might be able to get some value with an Over. The Spurs seem to enjoy making buckets when they're at home, but I'm not sure I fully trust the Pacers to keep up enough to push it over. Probably a no-play, here.
Rockets/Thunder - Houston by 4.5 with a total of 193. I realize this game is a double-revenge spot for the Thunder, and getting points makes them look like a potential play, but I have an initial small lean to the Rockets. Both teams are coming off games last night, though the Rockets won an overtime tilt with the Mavs in Dallas, and the Thunder had a relatively easy win over the Pistons at home. So, given the fatigue issue, you have to give just a slight edge to the Thunder, since their game was less intense, emotionally. Still, you guys know how I feel about the Shane Battier rule -- when he can guard the opposition's best player, the Rockets have a nice knack for covering. The line has held fairly steady between 4 and 4.5 so far, and I think that's fairly reasonable, given just a slight public lean to the Rockets, as well. I'm not a huge fan of riding with the public bettors, but I happen to think they may be right in this one. Even if the Thunder are the "value" play, the value goes down the drain if that team isn't going to play that well. Yes, the Thunder snapped a 3-game losing streak with their win last night, and again, the Rockets long, tough game last night does give me pause, but I do lean to the home fave. In terms of the total, I have to lean Under, once again due to the fatigue factor and that I think the Rockets gameplan extremely well for the Thunder.
Suns/Wizards - This line is OFF. The Wizards snapped their 6-game losing streak last night with a win over the Warriors, and now they have to head to Phoenix to try to handle the Suns. This could be a fun one if the Wizards have anything left in the tank. Gilbert Arenas put on a show last night in Golden State, as he continues to get closer and closer to full strength, and Caron Butler had maybe his best game of the season, but Antawn Jamison showed some clear signs of getting tired, and I'm not hugely confident that the Wizards have the gusto to keep it going. Unfortunately, the oddsmakers are most likely going to feel the same way, and I think we're staring down the barrel of an 8-10 point spread, with the Suns being rested and ready to attack. We might have a better shot at trying to make some coin on the total, which will probably open in the 2-teens. I expect most of the public to bet the Over, because, well, it's Phoenix, but I'm not all that sure Washington's got enough in the well to break 100. Should be an interesting game to track late tonight.
Trend Report - Saturday
By Ed Meyer
Jazz at Bobcats - The Jazz are 8-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since January 06, 2001 with no rest after a double digit road loss in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted. The Jazz are 0-8 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since April 17, 2006 on the road with no rest after a game in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Bobcats are 9-0 ATS (11.8 ppg) since April 14, 2006 when they shot less than 25% from the three-point-line in each of their last two games.
Kings at Bucks - The Kings are 9-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since November 12, 1999 after a double digit loss against the Timberwolves. The Bucks are 0-8-1 ATS (-5.4 ppg) since February 24, 2006 with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.
Hawks at Bulls - The Hawks are 9-0 ATS (7.6 ppg) since March 31, 2008 with no rest after a game in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Bulls are 0-7 ATS (-12.4 ppg) since December 21, 2007 as a dog when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they had no rest.
Trailblazers at Magic - The Trailblazers are 8-0 ATS (13.5 ppg) since November 21, 2008 on the road when they have a revenge game next. The Magic are 9-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since January 31, 2007 at home with at most one day of rest after a loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Magic are 9-0 ATS (7.5 ppg) since March 03, 2007 after a road loss in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average.
Lakers at Nets - The League is 7-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since April 08, 2008 on the road with at least one day of rest off an overtime game as an away favorite. The Nets are 0-8-1 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since November 06, 2004 as a home dog with at most one day of rest after a game in which they had more turnovers than assists.
Thunder at Rockets - The Thunder are 0-8-1 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since January 07, 2009 on the road when facing a team they lost to at home in their previous same-season match-up. The Rockets are 0-10 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since November 03, 2007 with at most one day of rest off a win as a dog in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Rockets are 8-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since February 06, 2007 as a favorite with no rest after a game in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.
Clippers at 76ers - The Clippers are 0-9 ATS (-7.2 ppg) since March 14, 1999 with at most one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them. The 76ers are 0-6 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since December 03, 2008 at home when both they and their opponent have no rest.
Pacers at Spurs - The Pacers are 10-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since January 25, 2000 with no rest after a loss in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them. The Pacers are 0-6-1 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since December 04, 2005 on the road with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Spurs are 0-8 ATS (-15.4 ppg) since December 23, 1999 as a home favorite after a win in which they committed at least twenty turnovers.
Wizards at Suns - The Wizards are 0-8 ATS (-14.1 ppg) since November 28, 2007 before playing the Seventysixers. The Wizards are 0-7 ATS (-15.8 ppg) since December 14, 1999 as a dog off a road win that broke at least a five-game losing streak. The Suns are 0-8 ATS (-14.4 ppg) since January 27, 2006 before playing the Cavaliers.