NBA RoundUp For 2/20
By Dan Bebe
Sports Wagering
Wizards @ Raptors - This line is OFF. Two teams off nice wins squaring off on the second night of a back-to-back, and we're not getting a line because of Chris Bosh's health. This is a bad spot for both teams, as Washington's youngsters are finding this opportunity to show their stuff and try to earn longer term starting positions, while the Raptors had the one-game surge with their superstar out, now have to try to play a back-to-back, still without Bosh, I would imagine. Time will tell on the injury front. Still, this is a game without a clear edge on the side, and both teams won one game against the other earlier this year (both winning on the road, interestingly). Also, while Toronto has been pretty awful on back-to-backs this year, they've been decent when the second game occurs at home. Washington's stats from earlier this year can be dumped entirely with their new roster in play, as well. I just don't like the side at all in this one. I think we might find some value in a potential Over play here, if indeed both teams suffer defensively. My concern on the total is that Washington just won't find a guy that can score. They're so young and inexperienced, I fear they may not show up on the road, but is there really much of a home court edge when they have no fans at home?
Thunder @ Knicks - Oklahoma City by 6 with a total of 202.5. This is an awfully difficult game to handicap, as, from a value standpoint, this one is a total mismatch. The Thunder have won 7 consecutive games, covering 6, while the Knicks have lost 5 in a row, and 8 of 9, and have covered in just 2 of those 9 games. Clearly, the value is with the Knicks, as this line indicates the Thunder are a 9-point favorite on a neutral court, and even a few weeks ago that would not have been the case. There aren't many good basketball reasons to back the Knicks, though, as they lost by 18 to the Thunder back in early January, and while it IS a revenge game for New York, they are just playing terrible basketball right now, unable to score consistently while giving up over 100 points on almost a nightly basis. New York is also going to have some new pieces, courtesy of a somewhat busy trade deadline. As we've seen, backing teams the first game after a trade has been a very bad idea. The Cavs lost with their new cats last night; the Mavs lost their first game with Butler and Haywood coming out of the break; Portland dropped their game with Boston, and the new players just have not been fitting in well. Maybe the additions, or subtractions, or whatever you want to call the situation in New York, will work out, but in this first game, I have to avoid the side. I love the Over, though, as this total is set well higher than the mark in the previous matchup, which went under. It has that oddsmaker hint feel to it.
Sixers @ Bulls - Chicago by 5 with a total of 193.5. Two more teams coming off wins last night, the Bulls on the road in Minnesota and the Sixers at home against the Spurs. Two teams playing better basketball now than, perhaps, at any point this year. The Bulls have covered all 3 games since the All Star Break, and 5 of their last 6 overall. The Sixers had lost and failed to cover 2 in a row, but their win over San Antonio actually gives them 6 wins in 8 games, and 5 in 7 covers. I suppose the key comparison that needs to be made in this game is between the success of the two teams on back-to-backs, and the Bulls' revenge factor. These teams faced off in Philadelphia shortly before the All Star Break, and the Sixers beat the Bulls by 3 in overtime. You have to believe Chicago is going to want to make a strong impression. On the flip side, the Bulls have been a pretty bad 5-9 ATS in back-to-back situations, including getting killed by Orlando in their last game before the Break. Still, they beat New York in a back-to-back just a couple days ago. The question becomes, then, can the Bulls muster any strength in this 4th game in 5 nights? They have played almost every day since teams returned from the layoff, playing on Tuesday, Wednesday, yesterday and now today. They've won the first 3 games. Philly has been very good on back-to-backs, going 8-4 ATS, and they're not playing a 4th in 5 nights. I suppose with all this weighed out, Philly's excellent back-to-back play and bonus energy outweighs the Bulls' revenge. I lean Philadelphia, and Under.
Heat @ Mavericks - This line is OFF. Will Dwyane Wade play? I hate to say it, but if he's out, that immediately swings me over to Dallas. We saw Miami step up and play one of their best team efforts all season with a key road win over the Memphis Grizzlies in 2OT, but those reserves that stepped up are going to be absolutely tuckered out. Unfortunately, oddsmakers know that too, and this line is going to open higher than most would figure. Still, Dallas looks like a changed team. They got that home win over Phoenix a few days back, and followed that up with a splendid road win over Orlando last night. I also believe that the Mavs' 6-19 ATS mark at home is bound to start evening out. I know that's not the most clever or in-depth way to look at it, but a HUGE ATS edge in one direction on something like that is bound to make its way back towards the mean at some point. And with the Mavs new players making an immediate impact, you just have to like their chances to take it to the Wade-less Heat. Miami's back-to-back numbers are irrelevant with their superstar out; Dallas is a palatable 6-8 ATS on back-to-backs, but again, with the new guys in town and the team playing with confidence, they just might have the gusto to put together another decent game. I lean Mavs on the side, and I think we'll get a little value with the Over, since both teams will be tired, and the good defense the Heat have been playing should lead to Over line value. Doesn't mean it's a play, that's just the way the line should open.
Pacers @ Rockets - Houston by 8 with a total of 205. That's a lot of points for the Rockets to be laying, but I suppose given the Pacers are on a back-to-back, and coming off a loss in New Orleans last night, this does make sense. Indiana has been playing very, very poorly of late, but the Rockets, for the life of me, I just can't figure out! They won in Memphis before the Break, lost at home to Philly, got slaughtered in Miami, returned from the Break and got out-classed by the Jazz before beating the crap out of Milwaukee 3 days ago. Now, they host the Pacers. Which Rockets team will we see? Well, we know Houston tends to struggle with big men, but the bottom line is that if they're making shots, they're tough. The Rockets did just make a trade to bring in a strong shooting guard in Kevin Martin, and I must offer a word of caution to bettors assuming the new guy is going to jump in and make a splash. We've seen almost every team that picked up new players lose the first game with those guys. I'm not saying taking 8 points with the hapless Pacers is the way to go, but I do think the Rockets will have some slight chemistry issues, and I am indeed suggesting that if you're going to lean on this game, you simply must lean to the Pacers and the Under. As far as Indiana is concerned, they've lost 3 in a row and 6 of 8, and they have been, for most of the year, a pretty bad ATS wager at 23-30. So, really, you need a ton of good reasons to back them, I just feel they lose this game by 3-6 points, and hence the lean.
Bobcats @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 2.5 with a total of 189. Two MORE teams off wins yesterday. The Bobcats got a monster win over the tired Cavaliers, taking advantage of a clear letdown spot for Cleveland off the 13-game winning streak, and the Bobcats desperately needed a strong game to snap a little ATS skid of their own. These teams played way back in late December and the Bobcats won that home game by 10, so this is technically a revenge spot for the Bucks, but I think the most important note here is how these teams perform in tired spots. The Bobcats are a very impressive 10-4 ATS in back-to-backs, and given their youth, that shouldn't surprise anyone. They play strong defense, and that is going to keep you in most games. If you have the energy to defend, you're going to be a great value on back-to-backs, since normally that team would be collecting 2 extra points in the line. Here, though, because Milwaukee is on back-to-back as well, nobody is getting any bonus points. The Bucks are 10-3 ATS! This is quite the pickle. Two very solid back-to-back teams, one, the Bobcats, that trends to the Over in those spots (8-5), and one, the Bucks, that trends to the Under (5-8). I can't help but think that this game is almost value free. No leans.
Kings @ Clippers - This line is OFF. This one features two bad teams that shipped off players and picked up scrap heap materials. So, once again, we'd love to be able to fade the team with the new players, but both stinker teams are dealing with the same issues. I mean, man. In terms of recent NBA cards, this one has to have the most match-ups that just leave me uninspired and annoyed. Here, the freefalling Clippers, who have lost 6 in a row SU and 5 in a row ATS, and who probably have some tiny amounts of value just because they're playing at home, take on the Kings, who covered 3 in a row before getting throttled by Golden State. Based on the way I tend to like teams coming off a huge loss, I think Sactown may have regarnered the line value. Maybe it's the late night talking, but the ugliness Sacramento showed in that game with the Warriors is awfully tough to forget. Still, the Clippers look like they might be mailing it in for the remainder of the season. Just based on the fact that in their most recent 5 losses they've fallen by double digits, it's tough to really see the Clippers snapping out of it. Maybe the Kings are just what the doctor ordered, but based on the fact that Sacramento appears to be playing with more pride, and actually seems to be better without Kevin Martin, I have to lean Kings. I also like the Over, as the Clippers defense has been downright terrible of late (allowing over 100 points in 4 straight), and the Kings are an "over" team, as well.
Miami (29-27, 28-28 ATS) at Dallas (33-21, 22-32 ATS)
The Mavericks try to continue their dominance of the Heat when they return to American Airlines Center for a rematch of the 2006 NBA Finals.
Miami ran its winning streak to five in a row (SU and ATS) with Friday’s 100-87 double-overtime win at Memphis, cashing as a 6½-point road underdog. The Heat, who outscored the Grizzlies 15-2 in the second OT, played without star guard Dwyane Wade, who injured his calf in Wednesday’s win at New Jersey, and Wade likely will miss this contest as well. The Heat’s 5-0 roll (4-0 on the road) comes on the heels of losing five in a row overall (0-4 on the road) and seven of eight (2-6 ATS). They continue to struggle offensively, as last night’s 100-point effort was just the second time in the last seven games – and the third in the last 11 – that Miami hit the century mark.
Dallas opens a three-game homestand tonight after playing four of its last five games on the road, including last night’s 95-85 upset win at Orlando as a 6½-point road underdog. The Mavs are still just 4-6 SU in their last nine games and 5-14 ATS in their last 19. Their only home game in the last two weeks came on Wednesday, when they beat Phoenix 107-97 and covered as a four-point home favorite. That ended an 0-10 ATS slide at home and an 0-17 ATS slump as a home favorite.
The Mavs lost to the Heat in six games in the 2006 Finals, including dropping the last four in a row after taking Games 1 and 2. Since then, however, Dallas won seven straight meetings (3-3-1 ATS), including a 106-93 rout in Miami as a 1½-point road favorite on Dec. 11. Including the NBA Finals series, the Mavs are 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 head-to-head clashes, but Miami has cashed in four straight in Dallas. In fact, the road team is 9-1-1 ATS and the underdog is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
The Heat have covered in five of their last six against the Western Conference, but they’re otherwise in ATS nosedives of 3-6 against the Southwest Division, 1-5 on Saturday and 2-7 when playing on back-to-back nights. It’s been all negative at the betting window for Dallas, too, as it carries ATS trends of 8-19 overall (5-14 last 19), 6-21 at home (2-17 last 19), 1-6 on Saturday, 3-5 versus the Eastern Conference and 2-6 when facing teams from the Southeast Division.
Miami is on “under” runs of 22-8-1 overall, 5-0-1 on the road, 4-0 on Saturday, 6-0-1 when playing on no rest, 9-3 versus the Western Conference and 15-6 against the Southwest Division. Dallas has stayed low in 11 of 15 against the Southeast Division, but the Mavs have topped the total in seven of their last 10 at home, 13 of 19 against Eastern Conference foes and four of five on Saturday.
Finally, the under has hit in six of the last seven Mavs-Heat meetings in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI and UNDER
Trend Report - Saturday
By Ed Meyer
Bobcats at Bucks – The Bobcats are 10-0-1 ATS (11.1 ppg) since April 04, 2007 on the road with no rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field. The Bobcats are 8-0 ATS (13.0 ppg) since November 10, 2004 as a dog after a double digit home win in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points. The Bucks are 0-8 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since November 24, 2001 as a home favorite after a game on the road after a win in which they made fewer baskets than their opponent.
Sixers at Bulls – The 76ers are 6-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since March 09, 2004 with at most one day of rest off a home win in which they trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters. The Bulls are 0-8 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since March 29, 2007 when seeking revenge for a road loss in which they led at the half.
Kings at Clippers – The Kings are 9-0-1 ATS (4.5 ppg) since February 13, 2001 with two or more days of rest after a road loss in which their DPA was at least plus 15 points. The Kings are 9-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since April 15, 2006 as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a double digit loss in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Clippers are 0-7 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since April 10, 2008 after a home loss in which more than 70% of their baskets were assisted.
Thunder at Knicks – The Knicks are 6-0 ATS (12.9 ppg) since March 30, 1997 as a dog off a loss as a favorite in which they led by led by double digits at the half.
Heat at Mavericks – The Heat are 8-0 ATS (8.5 ppg) since February 22, 2007 on the road when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which fewer than 50% of their baskets were assisted. The Heat are 7-0 ATS (4.4 ppg) since March 11, 2003 on the road with no rest after a game in which they had at least five more turnovers than their season-to-date average. The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since May 29, 2003 at home with at most one day of rest after a double digit road win in which their DPA was minus 15 points or less.
Wizards at Raptors – The Wizards are 0-9 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since January 22, 2003 as a road dog with at most one day of rest off a home win in which they trailed by 10+ points. The Raptors are 0-6 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since April 04, 2003 at home off a road win in which their leading scorer for that game had fewer than 20 points.
Pacers at Rockets – The Rockets are 0-9 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since January 30, 2001 as a favorite with two or more days of rest after a win in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points.