Houston (29-28, 26-31 ATS) at Utah (37-21, 35-20-3 ATS)
The struggling Rockets head north to Salt Lake City, hoping to win at EnergySolutions Arena for the second time this year as they visit the Jazz.
Houston is coming off Friday’s 109-105 upset victory over San Antonio as a 3½-point home underdog. The Rockets snapped a three-game losing skid with the victory, but they’ve still dropped six of their last eight games, all SU and ATS. Going back further, they’re lost 10 of their last 15 contests and they’re 6-18 ATS in their last 24. On the bright side, Houston has managed to win three of its last five road outings both SU and ATS.
Utah rebounded from Monday’s 105-100 home loss to Atlanta (as a three-point chalk) with Wednesday’s 102-93 victory over Charlotte, barely covering as a 7½-point home favorite. Then the Jazz went to Sacramento last night and got stunned 103-99 as a seven-point road favorite. Utah has still won 19 of its last 24 games, going 17-4-3 ATS. During this stretch, the Jazz are 11-2 on their home floor (8-3-2 ATS). Also, last night’s result aside, Jerry Sloan’s squad has scored at least 100 points 18 times in this 24-game surge.
Houston pounded the Jazz 113-96 as an eight-point underdog back in the first week of the season, but Utah got revenge 11 days ago, rolling 104-95 in Houston as a three-point road chalk. Prior to this season, the home team had won seven straight series clashes (4-3 ATS), but the visitor has now covered in 11 of the past 16 meetings.
The SU winner has covered the spread in each of the Rockets’ last 11 games and 15 of the last 16, and the winner is 15-1 ATS in their last 16 road outings (10-0 ATS last 10). Also, the winner is 18-1-3 ATS in Utah’s last 22, including 9-0 ATS in the last nine. Finally, the winner has cashed in six of the last eight meetings between these teams.
Houston has failed to cover in 18 of 24 overall, nine of 12 on the road, nine of 13 against Western Conference opponents, four straight versus the Northwest Division, five of six on Saturday and seven of eight when playing on consecutive nights.
On the opposite end of the pointspread perspective, the Jazz are on ATS surges of 33-16-3 overall (17-4-3 last 24), 16-6-2 at home, 13-3-2 in Western Conference contests, 36-15 when facing Southwest Division foes, 3-0-1 on Saturday and 5-2-1 when going on the second night of a back-to-back.
The underdog has cashed in 14 of Houston’s last 19 games, but the favorite is 10-5-1 ATS in Utah’s last 16.
The over is on runs of 5-1 for the Rockets on back-to-back nights and 4-1 for Utah at home. However, the under is on streaks of 14-6 for Houston on the highway, 4-1 for Houston in Western Conference games, 5-3 for the Jazz overall and 5-1 for the Jazz against Western Conference opponents. Also, the under has cashed in three of the last four meetings between these two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 2/27
By Dan Bebe
Nets @ Celtics - Boston by 11.5 with a total of 188.5. Well, this is a downright ugly game, and under most circumstances, I would say you absolutely, positively have to start with the huge road dog, but I'm not so sure in this one. We have two of the worst ATS bets in the entire NBA in this game -- you could have played against Jersey and Boston in every game all season long, and you would be 69-42. Put that in your pocket. So, when these two miserable ATS teams go head-to-head, how do you pick a side? Well, in this case, I believe it's important to note how the teams have been playing. The Nets, after seemingly turning a corner from about January 27th to February 17th, have regressed badly. Why? Well, I contend it's because they don't deserve a home court advantage of any kind, yet continue to get the full 3 points. New Jersey has been playing a ton of home games lately, and will play quite a few more, and while losses of 8, 9, 10 points are covers on the road, they're only getting 4-6 points at home, and those 10-point losses are all ATS losses, as well. Back on the road now, the Nets are getting those bonus points, and it'll be very interesting to see if that'll be enough. On Boston's side, the Celts are coming off a total 4th quarter meltdown to the Cavs on Thursday. I suppose the question is whether they bounce back from the demoralizing loss or let that failure snowball. I know Boston is supposedly a strong-willed team, but they're just not the same. They're just 8-18 ATS against losing teams this year, a strong indication that Boston is always going to cost you a premium, and even moreso against the League's worst. In terms of the season series, Boston has won all 3 games, one in a huge blowout, and two where they just missed the cover. The most recent meeting was a 96-87 Boston win about 3 weeks ago, here in Boston. There really isn't a good side to take in this game, but the Nets on the road have a good shot to lose by 9-10, which would be a cover, so I lean Jersey. I also think most people are going to feel these teams are going to win with defense, but Boston has been running the ball quite a bit, and I think Jersey is pushing the tempo a little, and the Over in Jersey games is still one of the sneakier bets in the NBA.
Bucks @ Heat - This line is OFF. Dwyane Wade is doubtful for this one, so we'll handicap as if he's NOT playing. If that changes, we'll adjust accordingly. As for where we sit now, it's hard to see the Heat really playing up to the current level of the Bucks without their big dog. Miami is on double-revenge here, but I just wonder if Milwaukee once again has a particular team's number. The Bucks beat Miami by 11 at home, then came right back 2 days later, and crushed Miami on the road by 16. My immediate concern here is how this line is adjusted. Is it going to be preadjusted for the Heat's double-revenge, or is it going to be fair? I suppose a lot has to do with how the public feels about these two teams. Milwaukee should be getting more love than they have been, although they were the public choice against Indiana, to no one's surprise. The Bucks have won 5 straight games, and have been covering machines, and the Heat were really doing the same before Wade got hurt. That's what makes this game so tough to call. The obvious choice is to just jump right back on Milwaukee until Miami shows they can top the Bucks, but at the same time, the obvious choice is often wrong. When these teams played two straight games against each other a month ago, Milwaukee was laying 4 at home and catching 6 on the road in a monster home/road swing. I would expect to see Milwaukee still catching a point or two in this one, though Miami plays in Orlando tomorrow against one of the East's marquee clubs in ESPN's early-evening NBA tilt. So, does Miami look ahead? Does Milwaukee go easy on them without Wade? Too many questions in this one, though I don't really see how you can avoid a tiny lean to Milwaukee. Maybe the better bet will come on the total. If this line comes out below 186, I believe the total to be pretty accurate. Above 186, and I think we might be seeing a tipped hand. No lean on the total yet, but when we get a number to work with, I might develop one.
Bulls @ Pacers - A Pick with a total of 211. If the first thing that pops into your mind is "these teams JUST played," you are absolutely right...doubly so, in fact. On the 9th, Chicago went into Indiana in the Pacers final game before the All Star Break, and beat them with a very strong 4th quarter, 109-101; less than a week ago, Indiana paid a visit to Chicago, and lost 120-110. Both games were covers for Chicago, and both went over a posted mark right around 205. So, now, oddsmakers finally adjusted, and I think this number is pretty accurate. Really, it could still go Over, but we'll get to that. As far as the side is concerned, Chicago has won all 3 meetings this season by 9, 8, and 10. Could Chicago really be just a Pick here? Something seems a little funny on the side. Chicago is coming off a ridiculous overtime victory over Portland that really took every ounce of strength to get that cover. This is a bit of a letdown spot for Chicago, a team that has not been terribly strong on back-to-backs this season, at just 6-9 ATS, and 2-5 ATS when they go home-to-away in back-to-backs. In addition, Chicago is coming off a 58% shooting night against the Blazers, and if that's what it takes to squeeze by Portland at home, it seems like this might be a tough spot for them. I like that this line appears extremely easy, in terms of taking Chicago, and since Indiana is coming off that loss to Milwaukee, I don't think they'll get much public love. There is definitely some line value on the side of the Pacers, and don't be concerned if this line dances around the centerpoint while sharps set up a middle. Lean to Pacers, and Chicago plays zero defense on back-to-backs, so I think this one might go up and over one more time.
Grizzlies @ Knicks - A Pick with a total of 210.
Blazers @ Wolves - Portland by 4 with a total of 195.5.
Rockets @ Jazz - Utah by 10 with a total of 202.5.
Pistons @ Warriors - Golden State by 4 with a total of 208.
Trend Report - Saturday
By Ed Meyer
Nets at Celtics – The Nets are 0-10 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since November 17, 2009 after a loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists. The Nets are 0-7 ATS (-7.0 ppg) since April 04, 2000 on the road when seeking revenge for a loss as a dog in which they led at the end of the third quarter. The Celtics are 0-8 ATS (-6.2 ppg) since February 07, 1996 at home after a double digit loss against the Cavaliers.
Bucks at Heat – The Bucks are 0-8-1 ATS (-4.2 ppg) since March 01, 2006 on the road with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two. The Heat are 9-0 ATS (8.0 ppg) since January 24, 2009 after a game at home in which their opponent shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Heat are 8-0 ATS (12.7 ppg) since March 09, 2001 at home after a loss in which they had at least 12 steals.
Rockets at Jazz – The Rockets are 0-7 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since January 25, 2010 when facing a team they lost to in their previous same-season match-up. The Jazz are 7-0 ATS (15.4 ppg) since April 03, 2002 at home with no rest after a loss in which more than 75% of their baskets were assisted.
Grizzlies at Knicks – The Grizzlies are 8-0 ATS (11.6 ppg) since January 10, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a home loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Knicks are 0-8 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since November 19, 2003 at home off a win in which they trailed at the end of each of the first three quarters. The Knicks are 0-7 ATS (-5.1 ppg) since April 08, 2005 at home with no rest after a game on the road in which they allowed at least 50% from the field.
Bulls at Pacers – The Bulls are 9-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since January 08, 2005 with at most one day of rest after a home win in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was less than four. The Bulls are 0-7 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since April 30, 2009 off an overtime game. The League is 0-9-1 ATS (-5.7 ppg) since January 24, 2007 at home with at least one day of rest off a loss of four points or fewer as a home dog in which they trailed by 15+ points.
Trailblazers at Timberwolves – The Trailblazers are 6-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since January 02, 1996 on the road after a loss in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points. The Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since January 07, 2009 at home when both they and their opponent have no rest.
Pistons at Warriors – The Pistons are 0-6 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since November 22, 2009 after a road loss in which their DPS was positive. The Warriors are 6-0 ATS (13.8 ppg) since January 25, 2009 when playing the last game of at least a three game home stand.