Saturday's Best NBA Bets
Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz (N/A)
The Utah Jazz did everything to overcome injuries to Andrei Kirilenko and Devin Harris on Thursday, but ended up dropping a heartbreaking 121-117 overtime loss to the New Orleans Hornets.
Paul Millsap was a big part of the effort that got Utah backers to the pay window for the fourth time in six games, pouring in 33 points while adding 11 rebounds and three blocks. The 6-foot-8 forward is now averaging better than 25 points in his four games since coming back from a knee injury.
However, Millsap was at the center of some controversy when he was at the free-throw line with only 1.3 seconds left in regulation and Utah up 105-103.
"It's a tough loss," Jazz coach Tyrone Corbin told reporters. "The guys had a great chance to win the ballgame. I probably should have told Paul to miss a free throw at the end of the ballgame ... but (New Orleans) made a tough shot to send it to overtime and they won the game."
That shot was a 20-foot, desperation effort from Emeka Okafor that sent the game to overtime. The Jazz may not have Kirilenko and Harris back for Saturday, but they’ll show up again against the Mavs.
Pick: N/A
Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons (pick ‘em, 204)
Not that the Indiana Pacers have been much of a money maker for bettors at the best of times this season – checking in just under .500 against the spread this season – but they’re been absolutely terrible against the number in the second half of back-to-backs.
Indiana is home to Sacramento Friday night before traveling to Detroit for Saturday’s game and is only 5-15 against the number in these situations.
It’s an even playing field for this matchup as Detroit is also in action at the lowly Cavaliers on Friday, but the Pistons are 8-10 against the spread playing on consecutive days.
Detroit has been tough lately, beating Miami and New York while suffering a tough loss at Atlanta and we expected to see the Pistons favored here on the early line.
Pick: Pistons
Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz
By: David Schwab
The Dallas Mavericks will go for the season sweep when they take on the Utah Jazz at EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City.
Saturday's tip-off is set for 6 p.m. (PT) and the game will be available on NBA League Pass.
Dallas erased an early March slide with three wins in its last four games, including a 101-73 victory over Golden State last Sunday as an 8½-point home favorite and a 104-96 win over Minnesota Thursday night as a 15-point home favorite.
The Mavericks are now 50-21 straight-up overall and 37-32-2 against the spread. They have a solid hold on the third spot in the Western Conference standings with a 3½-game lead over Oklahoma City, but still have designs on moving up to second given they are only a game in back of the LA Lakers.
Dirk Nowitzki continues to lead the way with a team-high 23.4 points and 6.9 rebounds a game, while Jason Terry is averaging 16.3 points and 4.2 assists off the bench. Shawn Marion remains a key contributor with an average of 12.1 points and 6.8 rebounds and Tyson Chandler is the leading rebounder with 9.4 a game.
The Mavericks are ranked 12th in the league in scoring with 100.3 points a game and 10th in points allowed; giving up an average of 96.2 making them one of the more balanced teams in the NBA. Dallas has the third best shooting percentage from the floor, hitting 47.7 percent of its shots and is converting on 37 percent of its attempts from beyond the arc.
Utah appears to be riding out the string with six losses in its last eight games including four straight heading into this game. The Jazz earned a ‘push’ against Oklahoma City in a 106-94 loss this past Wednesday as a 12-point road underdog. Thursday night they dropped a 121-117 OT decision to New Orleans as a five-point home underdog. They are currently in 11th place in the West with an overall record of 36-37 SU (31-40-2 ATS).
There are some injury concerns for the Jazz heading into this game with both Devin Harris and Andrei Kirilenko listed as day-to-day with leg injuries. If they cannot go it will be up to Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap to carry most of the load for the Jazz. Jefferson leads the team with 19.1 points and 9.6 rebounds and Millsap is second with 17.4 points and 7.9 rebounds.
Utah is ranked just above the Mavericks in scoring with 100.4 points a game, but it is giving up an average of 101.8 on the defensive side. It is shooting 46.6 percent from the field but just 34.6 percent from three-point range. The Jazz remain one of the worst rebounding teams in the league with an average of just 39.5 boards a game.
Dallas is 1-3 ATS in its last four road games and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The total has stayed ‘under’ in its last three games.
Utah is 3-0 ATS in its last three games at home and 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of its last eight games.
Head-to-head, the Mavericks have won five of the last seven games SU including three previous victories this season. They won 93-81 as a four-point road underdog and 103-97 as a 5½-point home favorite in December and then rolled to a 118-99 victory on Feb. 23 as a 10-point home favorite to cover the spread in all three games. The total went ‘over’ in the last two games.
This time around Dallas should open as a road favorite. The actual number will hinge on the status of Harris and Kirilenko, but the Mavs remain a solid pick as long as the line stays under six points.
What Bettors Need to Know: Mavericks at Jazz
Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz (N/A)
THE STORY: Another 50-win season is in the books for the Dallas Mavericks. Next up is dealing with a six-game road trip that will determine their chances at the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. Dallas opens the trip against the Utah Jazz on Saturday and doesn’t play at home again until April 6. One of the road games will be against the Los Angeles Lakers on March 31 - the team the Mavericks are battling for the second seed. The Mavericks defeated Minnesota on Thursday for their 11th consecutive 50-win season, one shy of the NBA record shared by the Lakers (1979-91) and San Antonio. The Spurs’ streak includes this season’s 50-win campaign.
TV: 9 p.m. ET, FSSW, FSUT
ABOUT THE JAZZ (36-37): Utah has lost four straight games to fall below .500 for the first time since early November and the latest defeat was excruciating. The Jazz lost 121-117 in overtime to the New Orleans Hornets after a crazy sequence at the end of regulation. Paul Millsap hit two free throws with 1.3 seconds but New Orleans’ Emeka Okafor hit a wild 20-foot bank shot to force overtime, causing coach Ty Corbin to regret not having Millsap intentionally miss the second free throw. Millsap had 33 points and 11 rebounds for his second 30-point outing in four games. Utah was without starters Devin Harris (hamstring) and Andrei Kirilenko (knee) and both players are in jeopardy of missing the Dallas game. Utah is 5-14 since Corbin replaced Jerry Sloan as coach.
ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (50-21): Dallas has a league-best 24-10 road record as it enters the six-game, nine-day trip that includes three back-to-backs. The Mavericks play at Phoenix on Sunday, head to Los Angeles for games against the Clippers on Wednesday and Lakers on Thursday and then face Golden State on April 2 and Portland on April 3. Dirk Nowitzki had 30 points and 11 rebounds in Thursday’s 104-96 victory over Minnesota and has led the Mavericks in scoring in nine straight games. Shawn Marion returned from a wrist injury and had 17 points. Jason Kidd had 13 assists and is averaging 10.6 points over the past five contests. Kidd is eighth in the NBA in assists at 8.5 per game.
WHO'S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Nowitzki is averaging 26.7 points and 10 rebounds over the last six contests. Millsap is averaging 25.3 points and 8.5 rebounds over the last four outings. Kidd is averaging just 4.2 points over the last six games and has made just 5 of 27 3-point shots. Utah guard Raja Bell is shooting just 28 percent over the last four contests.
KEY STATISTIC: Utah has allowed 100 or more points in eight straight games and 16 of its last 18. The Jazz are giving up 111.4 over the past eight contests to raise their season average to 101.8. Dallas averages 100.3 per game.
SEASON SERIES: Dallas has swept three meetings, including a 93-81 win in Salt Lake City on Dec. 3. The Mavericks won at home twice – 103-97 on Dec. 11 and 118-99 on Feb. 23.
KEY INJURIES: DALLAS: G Dominique Jones (foot); F Caron Butler (knee). UTAH: G Devin Harris (hamstring); F Andrei Kirilenko (knee).
KEY TRENDS: Dallas is 11-3 in its last 14 road games.
Utah is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 home games.
Dallas has covered just three times in its last 16 games in Utah.
LAST WORD: “Since the All-Star break we haven’t quite had that swag and the best way to get it is to go into other people’s house and kick their butts and take names. We got some tough teams, some possible playoff opponents, so we’re going to have to come out and be consistent and impose our will on the other opponent.” – Mavericks guard Jason Terry on the importance of the six-game road trip.