Portland (43-29, 38-32-2 ATS) at New Orleans (34-39, 33-39-1 ATS)
The Trail Blazers, looking for their seventh victory in eight games, head to the Big Easy for a meeting with the Hornets at New Orleans Arena.
Portland dropped Dallas 101-89 Thursday night as a 3½-point home favorite, moving to a middling 3-3-1 ATS during its 6-1 SU surge. The Blazers are averaging 98 ppg on 45.8 percent shooting, and they field the league’s fifth-best scoring defense, allowing 94.8 ppg on 46.4 percent shooting. In their last five starts, they’ve averaged seven ppg more than their opponents (96.6-89.6).
New Orleans has had star guard Chris Paul (knee) in the lineup the past two games, after a 25-game absence in which the team went 8-17 SU (11-13-1 ATS). The Hornets ripped Dallas 115-99 as a 4½-point home underdog Monday, with Paul limited to 21 minutes and scoring 11 points. However, they lost to Cleveland 105-92 Wednesday night getting 5½ points at home, and Paul had just five points (seven assists) in 31 minutes.
Portland is 4-2 ATS (3-3 SU) in the last six clashes in this rivalry, though in this year’s lone meeting, New Orleans eked out a 98-97 road win as a 2½-point pup on Jan. 25. In fact, the road team has cashed in the last four meetings, and the SU winner is on a 9-1 ATS tear (5-0 last five).
The Blazers are on ATS runs of 3-1-1 overall, 5-0 against Southwest Division foes, 4-1 on Saturday, 7-3 against winning teams and a solid 11-4-1 in roadies. The Hornets are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 home games against teams with a winning road record and 55-27-3 ATS in their last 85 Saturday starts, but they shoulder negative ATS streaks of 3-10-1 overall, 1-5 at home, 2-7-1 against winning teams, 4-12-1 in the Western Conference and 7-19 against the Northwest Division.
Portland is on “over” upticks of 6-1 on the highway, 16-5 on the road against teams with a winning home record and 6-2 against Southwest Division opponents, and the over for New Orleans is on streaks of 14-6 after a SU loss and 11-5 following a non-cover. However, the Hornets are on “under” stretches of 6-1 after a double-digit home loss, 15-3 against the Northwest Division, 6-2 against winning teams and 5-2 after two days off. Also, in this rivalry, the under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
L.A. Lakers (53-19, 30-39-3 ATS) at Houston (36-35, 32-39 ATS)
The defending NBA champion Lakers look to bounce back from last night’s ugly loss at Oklahoma City when they make the trip to the Toyota Center to take on the Rockets.
Los Angeles got ripped by the Thunder 91-75 as a 1½-point road chalk Friday night, which snapped a seven-game SU winning streak (3-4 ATS). Phil Jackson’s troops fell miles short of the 105.1 ppg that they’d averaged during the 7-0 tear. On the road this year, L.A. is averaging 100.6 ppg and allowing about a bucket less at 98.2.
Houston has followed a four-game win streak with a 1-4 SU and ATS skid, including SU and ATS losses in its last three games. On Thursday, the Rockets fell to the Clippers 99-93 as a five-point home chalk. In the past five games, Houston is giving up 105 ppg on 49 percent shooting, including 40 percent from 3-point range, while scoring 97.6 ppg on 40.7 percent shooting. The Rockets have also been outrebounded by nearly nine per game during the slide (47.4-38.6).
Los Angeles has won three of the last four meetings in this rivalry, though the two teams have split the cash. In three contests this season, the Lakers are 2-1 SU (1-2 ATS), most recently winning 88-79 as a seven-point home favorite. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven matchups, and the SU winner is on a 16-1 ATS tear in the last 17 meetings.
The Lakers are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall and 1-4 ATS in their last five after a SU loss, but they are on ATS surges of 8-1 on Saturday and 4-1 after a non-cover. The Rockets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a day off, though they own ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 1-7 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 1-5 against the Pacific Division, 1-5 on Saturday and 5-16 at the Toyota Center.
Los Angeles is on “under” rolls of 5-0 overall, 7-1 against winning teams, 6-1 on the road, 11-2 in the West, 4-1 going on no rest and 20-8 against Southwest Division foes. Houston is on “under” upswings of 5-2 at home, 6-1 against winning teams and 33-16 against squads with a win percentage above .600, but the over has hit in the Rockets’ last six Saturday affairs. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six of the last seven clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS and UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 3/27
By Dan Bebe
Jazz @ Wizards - Utah by 9 with a total of 196.5. Washington is playing a 4th in 5 nights, and haven't been good on back-to-backs. Utah off an ugly loss in Indiana; I lean to the big road favorites. Utah might drop 110 on the Wizards - can Washington break 85? I think I have to wait to determine a lean here just because I can't see Washington shooting well two nights in a row.
Blazers @ Hornets - Portland by 2.5 with a total of 194. Portland is knocking at the door of getting out of playing the Lakers, slight lean to Blazers, though the value isn't great. Lean to the Under on the total - with Chris Paul back, Hornets aren't going to try to go breakneck speed any more. Or at least they shouldn't.
Nets @ Bulls - Chicago by 10 with a total of 194.5. The Nets are on an offensive roll, but I don't like either side in this one, since I still haven't made up my mind on whether Chicago's set to mail it in the rest of the way. No lean on the side. The Nets shot 58% against the Pistons last night in a ridiculously high scoring affair, and I strongly believe that this total jumps UP as a result of that inflation. Then I'd lean just slightly to the Under.
Lakers @ Rockets - This line is OFF. This is an ugly time to be a Rocket. The Lakers got murdered by the Thunder last night, and are actually going to be a decent value, courtesy of the back-to-back. I know Houston likes playing LA, but they're also in "Lottery Freefall" mode, so I lean Lakers (especially with no Battier to guard Kobe). I also happen to believe the Rockets struggle to score, and I'd lean Under, but it's tough to know for sure before we see where the books bring this one out.
Mavericks @ Warriors - Dallas by 4 with a total 234.5. I happen to think this side is pretty accurate, coin-flip spot, but I love backing the Warriors at home, so they get the slight nod. Dallas is just the kind of team that can get sucked into a score-fest, and this total is high for a reason. Lean to the Over.