San Antonio (35-24, 28-30-1 ATS) at Memphis (32-30, 34-27-1 ATS)
The Grizzlies look to put an end to their bizarre home-road trend when they welcome the Spurs to the FedEx Forum for a key Southwest Division matchup.
San Antonio arrives in Memphis fresh off Friday’s 102-91 victory over New Orleans as an eight-point home chalk. The Spurs have won three in a row and four of their last five, but they continue to struggle to cash tickets, going 3-5 ATS in their last eight games and 8-14 ATS in their last 22 going back to Jan. 15. Also, prior to hammering the Hornets 106-92 in New Orleans on Monday, the Spurs had lost three in a row on the road SU and four straight on the highway ATS.
Memphis is returning home after back-to-back upset victories in New Orleans on Wednesday (104-100 as a 2½-point underdog) and Chicago on Thursday (105-96 as a five-point ‘dog). The Grizzlies have won five straight road games (5-0 ATS), but they’ve dropped seven in a row (1-6 ATS) and eight of nine (2-7 ATS) at home. Even more peculiar, prior to this home slump, Memphis had won 11 in a row at the FedEx Forum (7-3-1 ATS).
The home team has taken seven of the last nine in this rivalry, including both meetings this season, as Memphis won 92-86 as a 1½-point home favorite on Jan. 16 and then went to San Antonio 13 days later and fell 104-97 as a five-point underdog. The host is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 series clashes, the favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven and the SU winner is on a 7-1-1 ATS run.
Both teams carry a bunch of negative pointspread trends, with San Antonio failing to cover in five of eight overall and four of five on the road, while Memphis is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven home contests and 3-7 ATS in its last 10 against the Western Conference. However, one bright spot for the Grizzlies is their 8-3 ATS roll on Saturday.
The over is on upticks of 5-2 for San Antonio overall, 4-0 for San Antonio on the road, 4-1 for San Antonio against division rivals, 4-1 for Memphis versus Southwest foes and 6-2 for the Grizzlies on Saturday. Conversely, the Spurs carry “under” trends of 6-1 on Saturday, 19-7-1 when going on back-to-back nights and 12-5 versus winning teams, while Memphis has stayed low in four of five at home.
Finally, 21 of the last 31 Spurs-Grizzlies get-togethers have stayed under the total including the last four in Memphis.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 3/6
By Dan Bebe
Warriors @ Bobcats - Charlotte by 10.5 with a total of 204. From a line value standpoint, I'm not sure I'm all that pleased with laying 10.5 points, and you guys know how infrequently I look at the home team in a spot like this, but Golden State is just in an awful spot. They are playing their 4th game of a 5-game road trip, and on top of that, this is also their 4th game in 5 nights. That's tough for an average team, but how about a team with only 8 bodies, and only 1-2 of those 8 with real NBA experience. We saw what happened to the Warriors when they went into Orlando on the back end of a back-to-back after hanging with Miami the previous night. This game has all the makings of the exact same outcome, only the Warriors should be even more tired. Charlotte beat the Warriors on the West coast by outrebounding them by 20, so maybe there's a little revenge here, but the Warriors just seem far too fatigued and undersized to really make a legitimate push at beating the Bobcats. I do have a concern with backing Charlotte, though, and that comes from last night's game. They are on back-to-back, as well, and while they're 10-5 ATS on back-to-back games, they're coming off a 15-point win over the Lakers. If that doesn't ruin whatever value you might have had as a team, I don't know what does. I really want to find a way to fade the pooped out, undersized, undermanned Warriors, but I'm just not sure the situational angles add up -- TINY lean to Charlotte. The total on this game looks pretty low, and I do happen to think the Warriors struggle to score, but how many points can Charlotte put up? Another TINY lean, this time to the Under.
Hawks @ Heat - Miami by 1.5 with a total of 188. I'm not a huge fan of this one, either. Miami looks like they might be turning a corner just a little bit, but I'm rarely a fan of backing a team off a win over the Lakers. Miami and LA went to overtime on Thursday before the Heat prevailed, so again, there is almost no faster way to blow all your value than by beating the Lakers straight up. I know the Hawks are on a back-to-back, coming off a ridiculously high-scoring game with the Warriors, and boasting a fairly even record in these spots (8-7 ATS), but Atlanta has been showing some nice muscle lately, especially in tougher games. This has been an interesting series this season, and tonight will be the 4th and final meeting. The Hawks pummeled the Heat back in November, but Miami has dominated both meetings in 2010, most recently locking down the Hawks on February 10 to the tune of a 92-74 road victory. The revenge angle makes me think that if we're getting any value at all in this game, it's going to be on the side of Atlanta. Can the Heat really play all that well off the huge game on Thursday? The monster overtime win would seem to make Miami a team ripe for a letdown. The Hawks on back-to-back might look like a bad proposition to some, but I happen to think they're the side to look at in this one. The question is really whether Atlanta wasted too much energy scoring 127 points against the Warriors. I'm inclined to believe they've got something left in the tank, and I have a weak lean to the Hawks. The total is tough to call, I believe, as we know Miami prefers a slow, grinder of a game, but if we like the Hawks to win, I think we also have to like the Hawks to score a few points, and lean to the Over.
Nets @ Knicks - New York by 8 with a total of 209.5. Something feels off about this line. Can the Knicks really be regarded in such high esteem to rank them as 8-point favorites to the Nets? I mean, I realize Jersey is as bad as they come, but is New York truly 5 points better on a neutral court? This hasn't really been that lopsided of a series this year. New York won the first 2 meetings before Jersey took the third match, though all 3 of those games happened back in 2009. Something just doesn't add up. The Knicks were just a 4-point favorite the last time they hosted the Nets, and while they've clearly improved since then, New York, I feel, should not be laying 8 points to anything with 5 players and matching jerseys. So, the question is whether this line is high for a reason unbeknownst to us, for now, or just hyper-inflated because the Knicks have the name recognition. The lines these teams got in recent games against the Cavaliers happen to agree with this line of 8 points, but again, that number just looks wildly high -- trust me, I did the Math on that Cleveland stuff. Alright, so is either team in a particularly good or bad spot? Well, the Nets barely covered last night against the Magic, and are coming off games with Cleveland and Orlando in rapid succession, so they might be a little more tired than the Knicks, who lost in Toronto against a lower-impact opponent. Still, New York has to deal with customs to get home, they'll be getting less sleep, and New York is playing their 6th game in 9 days, so they might be a little fatigued. I can't be quite certain, though we should also note that Jersey has covered 6 straight on the road, where all the bonus points they get work wonders when they lose by 5-8 points. I lean Nets. The total is a little confusing, with both teams on back-to-back spots (both teams are bad ATS back-to-back, so that's a wash, but...), Jersey is a huge under team when tired and New York is a mild over team. I happen to think this one features more intensity than people would expect, and I lean Under.
Rockets @ Wolves - Houston by 3.5 with a total of 209.5. Sometimes the mojo is working on a game, and sometimes it just isn't, and I happen to believe this game is a very difficult one to handicap. The Wolves are all over the place, though they are coming off a nice run-n-gun offensive show in Dallas. The one thing that makes a little sense is that Minnesota is extremely streaky. This team very rarely wins a game, then doesn't follow it up with another ATS "W". Same deal with losses. So, I do, to a certain degree, like that Minnesota comes home with a little confidence, feeling a little better about themselves than they did when they got creamed by Oklahoma City and Portland. Unfortunately, Al Jefferson is out for one more game because of suspension. Houston has won both games in this series this year, and without Jefferson, the Wolves lose their huge advantage in the middle. Houston is notoriously undersized, but if the Wolves can't exploit their size edge, and subsequent potential edge on the glass, this is going to be a tall order. I don't trust the Rockets either, though. Houston bounces between wins and losses, almost without any real order. They beat Toronto by 24, then lost to the Kings outright at home. This should be a pretty low-impact road trip through Minnesota, Detroit and Washington, but time will tell if Houston can get their act together. No leans on the sides for me here, but I do like the Over, as I happen to believe Minnesota continues to push the pace, and Houston shouldn't have any problem with that.
Mavericks @ Bulls - Dallas by 1.5 with a total of 200.
Spurs @ Grizzlies - San Antonio by 1.5 with a total of 199.
Cavaliers @ Bucks - Cleveland by 3.5 with a total of 196.
Clippers @ Jazz - Utah by 13.5 with a total of 206.
Pacers @ Suns - Phoenix by 12.5 with a total of 221