Boston (49-30, 32-45-2 ATS) at Milwaukee (45-34, 52-26-1 ATS)
The Bucks, boasting the NBA’s best spread-covering mark, play host to the Celtics at the Bradley Center in what could be a preview of a first-round playoff matchup.
Milwaukee lost center and leading rebounder Andrew Bogut in the first half of last Saturday’s 107-98 victory over Phoenix as a two-point home chalk, and has since peeled off three more victories without Bogut. On Friday night, the Bucks topped Philadelphia 95-90, barely cashing as a 4½-point road favorite to move to 8-0 ATS in their last eight games. In the past six games, Milwaukee is allowing just 89.8 ppg, while scoring an average of 95.5 ppg.
Boston is on a 2-5 SU and ATS slide that currently has them sitting fourth in the Eastern Conference playoff standings, one spot ahead of Milwaukee. Last night, the Celtics were dealt a surprising 106-96 home loss to lowly Washington as a hefty 11½-point chalk. Doc Rivers’ troops hit just 38 of 90 shots (42.2 percent), including a 9-for-25 effort from long distance and an 11-for-19 performance at the line, following a five-game stretch in which they averaged a whopping 110.2 ppg on a stellar 54.1 percent shooting.
Milwaukee is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this rivalry (2-3 SU) and it is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four Bradley Center clashes. The underdog is also 4-0-1 ATS in the last five contests, with Milwaukee most recently winning 86-84 a month ago to push as a two-point home favorite. That makes the home team 5-1 SU in the last six head-to-head matchups.
The Bucks are on nothing but positive ATS sprees, including 42-17-1 overall, 8-0 on Saturday, 4-0 at home, 4-0 against winning teams, 14-3-1 against the Atlantic Division, 20-7-1 laying points and 18-3 this year when playing on back-to-back days. The Celtics, despite their recent woes, own ATS streaks of 6-1 when going on no rest, 4-2 against East Conference opponents, 4-1-1 against Central Division foes and 52-25-2 as a road ‘dog.
Boston is on “over” stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 against the Central Division, 5-2 as an underdog and 6-2 against the Eastern Conference. The over is also 3-0-1 in Milwaukee’s last four home starts, but the under for the Bucks is on runs of 6-0-1 on Saturday, 7-1-1 as a home chalk of less than five points, 4-1 against Atlantic Division foes and 34-16-1 in the Eastern Conference. Finally, the total has stayed low in the last three meetings in this rivalry, after a 3-1 “over” span.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE
San Antonio (48-31, 42-36-1 ATS) at Denver (52-27, 34-39-6 ATS)
The Nuggets, currently clinging to the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference playoff chase, go for their fifth win in a row when they host the Spurs at the Pepsi Center.
Denver squeaked past the Lakers 98-86 Thursday night, narrowly covering as a 1½-point home chalk. The Nuggets are 3-1 ATS during their four-game winning streak, following an 0-8-1 ATS nosedive (3-6 SU). George Karl’s troops are averaging 106.6 ppg, good for third in the league, while allowing 102.0, and on the home floor, Denver puts up a hefty 110.3 ppg, while yielding 100.9.
San Antonio has followed a 6-1 SU and ATS surge by losing its last two games SU and ATS. After an 11-point Wednesday night setback at Phoenix, the Spurs returned home as a 10½-point chalk against Memphis and laid an egg in a 107-99 loss last night. In the five outings prior to that upset, the Spurs were averaging 105.4 ppg on robust 50.4 percent shooting, while allowing 96.2 ppg on 45.1 percent shooting.
In the last contest between these rivals, San Antonio went on the road and pounded Denver 111-92 as a 5½-point pup, halting a 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) run by the Nuggets. In fact, the Spurs are 9-3 ATS on their last dozen trips to the Mile High City, and the road team has cashed in the last seven clashes between these two, all from the underdog role.
The Nuggets are on ATS skids of 3-9-1 overall and 0-5-1 after a day off, though they are also 19-9 ATS in their last 28 starts against the Southwest Division and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 at home against teams with a winning road record. The Spurs are on spread-covering surges of 16-6 overall, 4-0 against the Northwest Division, 5-1 on Saturday, 5-1 against winning teams, 10-3 in the West and 9-4 on the highway.
Denver sports a handful of “under” streaks, including 6-1 overall, 5-0 after a day off, 5-1 at the Pepsi Center, 21-6 against winning teams, 7-3 on Saturday and 9-4 against Southwest Division opposition. Likewise, San Antonio is on “under” rolls of 5-0-1 against the Northwest Division, 4-1-1 on the highway, 4-1 on Saturday and 23-6 against winning teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 22 of the last 29 meetings overall (3-0 last three) and 12 of the last 17 in Denver.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 4/10
By Dan Bebe
Nets @ Pacers - Indiana by 9.5 with a total of 208.5. Potential Indiana letdown, but Jersey hasn't given ANY effort on the road since they hit 10 wins. Lean to Indy, and lean to Under, as I strongly believe fatigue and lack of focus leads to some slower possessions.
Pistons @ Bobcats - This line is OFF. Charlotte actually has the tougher travel schedule, but from a motivational standpoint, based on back-to-back performances, if Charlotte can still make a move on 6th place, I lean Bobcats; if not, pass. Lean to the Over on the total.
Hawks @ Wizards - This line is OFF. Totally worthless game, here. Hawks are resting starters, Wizards are long since eliminated. Maximum Pass on the side. Slight lean to the Under, if indeed the Hawks are relying on big men to get it done, and Washington continues to play a slow, methodical (see: ugly) game.
Sixers @ Grizzlies - Memphis by 7 with a total of 206. Another meaningless one, though I have this weird feeling that the Sixers steal a rare late-season win. The Grizzlies look like they're in full-on letdown mode. Lean to Philly, but barely. The total of 206 looks high, but as both teams stop caring, defense goes down the drain. Tiny lean to the Over.
Celtics @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 1 with a total of 190. I honestly don't know what to expect here. I happen to think the Bucks want it more, so I'd offer a tiny lean in their direction, and we all know how impressive they've been on back-to-backs. Lean to the Over, since I don't see Boston focused on defense.
Spurs @ Nuggets - This line is OFF. 4th in 5 nights for Spurs. Jeff from Indy can finish this write-up by himself! Lean to Nuggets, and lean to Under, as I don't see San Antonio cracking 95 points, and this total will likely be up around 200.
Mavericks @ Kings - This line is OFF. Dallas won't be taking anyone lightly in the final few games, here. The Kings, off that easy win over the Clippers, will be in their typical 4th quarter meltdown form. Slight, tiny, microscopic lean to the Mavs. This total is going to come down to whether the Kings can score, and I honestly don't know. No lean on the total.
Warriors @ Clippers - This line is OFF. The Warriors got their Coach his record, but for some reason, I still think they play with some fire here. Or maybe I just think the Clippers are worthless. Either way, slight lean to the boys from Oaktown. Lean to the Over, if it's less than last time, but that number is going to dictate the play.
Trend Report - Saturday
By Ed Meyer
Pistons at Bobcats – The Pistons are 0-6 ATS (-7.1 ppg) since February 24, 1997 as a road dog with no rest when they have won and covered their last three games. The Bobcats are 6-0-1 ATS (6.9 ppg) since January 12, 2008 when playing their fourth game in five days.
Celtics at Bucks – The Celtics are 7-0 ATS (6.4 ppg) since November 27, 2001 on the road after a loss against the Wizards. The Bucks are 0-6 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since February 17, 2000 as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a road win in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line.
Warriors at Clippers – The Warriors are 0-8 ATS (-15.6 ppg) since December 18, 2005 after a road win in which they shot at least ten three-pointers and made at least half of them. The Warriors are 8-0 ATS (6.4 ppg) since March 16, 2006 with two or more days of rest after a game on the road in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line. The Clippers are 0-9 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since December 17, 1999 as a home favorite after a double digit road loss in which they scored less than 15% of their points from the free throw line.
76ers at Grizzlies – The 76ers are 7-0 ATS (8.7 ppg) since December 18, 2005 off a loss as a home dog in which they never led. The Grizzlies are 0-9 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since January 30, 2004 as a home favorite when facing a team they beat in their previous same-season match-up and they have a revenge game next on the road next.
Mavericks at Kings – The Mavericks are 8-0 ATS (12.4 ppg) since January 08, 1997 with no rest after a game in which they shot less than 35% from the field. The Kings are 0-8 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since April 08, 2007 as a home dog with at most one day of rest off a win that broke at least a three-game losing streak.
Spurs at Nuggets – The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since March 02, 2001 as a favorite after a home win in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.
Nets at Pacers – The Nets are 0-7 ATS (-15.9 ppg) since December 02, 2008 after a win in which their DPA was positive. The Pacers are 0-8 ATS (-5.1 ppg) since December 13, 2003 as a favorite with no rest after a win in which they shot at least 50% from the field.
Hawks at Wizards – The Hawks are 0-9-1 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since January 11, 2008 after a home win in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. The Wizards are 6-0-1 ATS (6.1 ppg) since December 12, 2001 with at most one day of rest after a double digit win in which their opponent shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.
Tips and Trends
Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks
Celtics: Boston is certainly not playing their best basketball as they approach the playoffs. Boston has lost 5 of their past 7 games SU, with their latest being amongst the most inexcusable losses all season. Boston is fighting with Atlanta for the #3 seed in the Eastern Conference playoff chase. With much still on the line this season, the Celtics lost SU at home to the Washington Wizards by 10 PTS. The Celtics biggest issue of late is their once vaunted defense, as they've allowed 104 PTS or more in each of their last 6 games. The Celtics are 49-30 SU and 32-45-2 ATS overall this season. The Celtics are 25-14 SU and 20-18-1 ATS on the road this season. Boston is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a road underdog of 3 PTS or fewer this year. Boston is 14-18 ATS during the 2nd half of the regular season. All 5 starters average double figures in PTS this year for the Celtics, with 3 of them shooting better than 50% from the field. F Paul Pierce leads Boston with 18.2 PPG this year. G Ray Allen is 2nd on the team with 16.2 PPG this season. Pierce and Allen have combined for 247 made 3 pointers this season.
Celtics are 6-1 ATS last 7 games playing on 0 days rest.
Over is 5-2 last 7 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 89
Bucks (-1.5, O/U 190): Milwaukee continues their Cinderella season, even as people were looking to jump off this ship with the injury to their star C Andrew Bogut. The Bucks have won their past 4 games SU, all without the aid of Bogut. Milwaukee is jockeying for positioning in the Eastern Conference playoff chase. The Bucks are in a battle for the 5th seed in the East, along with the Miami Heat. Milwaukee is 45-34 SU and 52-26-1 ATS this season. Milwaukee is easily one of the most profitable teams ATS this season. The Bucks have won their past 8 games ATS heading into tonight's contest. Milwaukee beat the Celtics last month at home by 2 points, earning a push ATS. The Bucks are winning with defense, as they've held 3 of their past 4 opponents under 90 PTS. Milwaukee is 28-11 SU and 24-14-1 ATS in home contests this season. The Bucks are an impressive 8-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 PTS or fewer this season. The Bucks are 23-8 ATS in the 2nd half of the regular season. F John Salmons has been impressive since becoming a Buck, averaging 20.3 PPG in leading the team in scoring this year.
Bucks are 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a home favorite.
Over is 3-0-1 last 4 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - C Andrew Bogut (elbow) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 97 (Side of the Day)