Saturday's Best NBA Bets
Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic (-8.5, 179.5)
The Magic lost three of four to Atlanta during the regular season, but you can probably throw those out the window. Orlando seems to be a different team when it reaches the playoffs. Stan Van Gundy’s squad won the East two years ago and did not lose a single game en route to last season’s conference finals before falling to the Celtics in six.
Among Orlando’s 2010 playoff victims was none other than Atlanta. In a record-setting series, the Magic swept the Hawks by a combined 101 points -- the biggest margin in NBA history.
The Hawks should at least get a game this time around, but it may not come on Saturday. Josh Smith missed three games recently with a knee injury and played sparingly in the final two regular-season contests. Jason Collins sat out the last four games due to a sprained ankle. Both should play in Game 1, but they could be limited.
Collins is a little-used reserve, but he is valuable when Atlanta goes up against Dwight Howard and company. Van Gundy told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution after an 85-82 Hawks’ win on March 30 that Collins played “the best defense I’ve seen all year on Dwight.”
Orlando, meanwhile, won five of its last six regular-season games at the Amway Center.
Pick: Magic
Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks (-5, 186)
The Mavericks have flamed out in the first round in three of the last four playoffs. But they are not concerned about that as they try to end the streak of underachieving.
“I’m not into analyzing the past,” coach Rick Carlisle told ESPNDallas.com. “This is a new situation. It’s an exciting time. We’re going to go into this thing guns blazing.”
Dallas is also going into the postseason with a nice four-game winning streak (4-0 ATS). The team won three of those contests by double digits, including a 25-point rout of Phoenix last Sunday and a 32-point destruction of New Orleans on Wednesday.
Carlisle announced that DeShawn Stevenson will replace Roddy Beaubois in the starting lineup at shooting guard for the playoffs. That should energize the Mavs, as Beaubois looked out of his league as a starter after returning from a foot injury in February.
Portland and Dallas split four regular-season meetings, the home team winning every time.
Pick: Mavericks
Hawks and Magic in NBA playoff betting rematch
By: Brad Young
Atlanta and Orlando collide in the NBA Playoffs for the second consecutive season, but the Hawks are hoping for a vastly different outcome. Last year's second-round series was completely one-sided, with the Magic sweeping Atlanta and winning the games by an average of 25 points.
Don Best's Real-Time Odds lists Orlando as eight-point home ‘chalk’ over Atlanta, with Game 1's total set at 179½.
The Magic are also installed as decided minus 600 favorites to win this series, while the Hawks are a plus-475 underdog.
ESPN will provide coverage of Saturday’s series opener beginning at 4:00 p.m. PT from Orlando’s Amway Center.
The good news for fifth-seed Atlanta (44-28 straight up, 37-45 against the spread) is it went 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS versus Orlando this season. The Hawks were a dismal 2-10 SU the previous 12 encounters with the Magic.
The ‘under’ is also a stellar 9-1 the past 10 games in this series, and 19-7 the previous 26 meetings.
The bad news for Atlanta is the fact that the team ended the regular season by losing its last six games SU, and final five ATS. That marks the Hawks' longest SU losing skid the past three years.
Atlanta concluded the regular campaign with Wednesday’s setback to Charlotte as a 1½-point road underdog, 96-85. The combined 181 points failed to topple the 192-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the third consecutive contest. The ‘under’ is now 11-4 in Atlanta’s last 15 road endeavors.
The Hawks rested many of their starters to remain fresh for the playoffs, and finished the contest by shooting 43 percent (34-of-79) from the field and a dismal 1-of-8 from behind the arc. Both teams grabbed 37 rebounds, while Atlanta was on the short end of assists, 27-16.
Backup center Josh Powell paced the offense with 16 points and five rebounds, while forward Damien Wilkins provided 14 and four. Guard Jamal Crawford accounted for 14 in the setback, while guard Kirk Hinrich had 10.
Fourth-seed Orlando (52-30 SU, 35-46-1 ATS) finished the regular season eight games ahead of Atlanta in the Southeast Division standings. The Magic concluded the regular season by going 4-1 SU and ATS their last five games.
Orlando cruised past Indiana Wednesday as a 5½-point home favorite, 92-74, while the combined 166 points never seriously threatened the 193-point closing total. The ‘under’ has cashed their last two outings, and the ‘under’ is now 20-6 their previous 26 home contests.
The Magic dominated the Pacers on the glass, 55-35, while also recording more points in the paint, 34-18, and delivering more assists, 17-16. Orlando finished the contest by shooting 44 percent (32-of-73) from the field, and 31 percent 8-of-26) from 3-point land.
Power forward Ryan Anderson posted 14 points and seven rebounds in the victory, while center Dwight Howard provided 13 and 13. Small forward Hedo Turkoglu accounted for 13 and five, while forward Brandon Bass had 12 and six.
Atlanta center Jason Collins (ankle injury) is ‘probable’ for Saturday’s contest versus the Magic. Orlando guard Gilbert Arenas (knee) and forward Brandon Bass (Achilles) are ‘probable’ against the Hawks, while guard JJ Redick (abdominal) is ‘questionable.’
NBA Playoff Betting: Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks
By: Adam Markowitz
The Dallas Mavericks, seeded third in the NBA's Western Conference, are expected to roll on to the second round of the playoffs. However, the sixth-seeded Portland Trail Blazers could have other ideas.
These two foes will square off at American Airlines Center in Big D on Saturday night, with a tip time coming at 6:30 (PT). If you want to catch this NBA playoff betting battle live, you can see it on ESPN.
Portland really could be a sneaky team, not just in this series, but in the entire postseason. This is a club that went 28-14 from January 15 through the end of the regular season, one of the best marks in the league in that stretch. Business really started to pick up when the club got healthy and after the acquisition of Gerald Wallace.
We know that Brandon Roy might not ever really be the same player that he was a season and a half ago, as his knees might not let him do what he is capable of doing. However, Wallace has really been the perfect complement to LaMarcus Aldridge with injuries limiting Roy's court time.
Wallace is averaging 15.8 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 2.0 SPG since coming to Portland. Aldridge is good for 21.8 PPG and 8.8 RPG.
Wesley Matthews, the only member of this team to play in all 82 games this season, had a breakout year, scoring 15.9 PPG. He really wasn't used all that much at the outset of the season, but from the point that he took over the starting shooting guard spot, he was lights out.
This is going to be the start of a heck of a test for Dallas. The Mavericks have never won an NBA Championship, and Dirk Nowitzki has built up the distinction of being a player that can put up great stats but will never win the big one.
This year though, there's no denying that he should be an MVP candidate even though we know that he won't get a sniff of the award. Forget about the fact that Nowitzki averaged 23.0 PPG and 7.0 RPG on the campaign. Forget about the 16 double-doubles. Forget about a dozen 30+ point efforts.
The only stat you need to know about Nowitzki is that the team was just 3-8 in 11 games in which he was out of the lineup, meaning the Mavs were 54-17 with him in there. Prorated over 82 games, the Mavericks would have gone 62-20 and tied for the best record in the NBA.
It's not like Nowitzki doesn't have plenty of help either. Jason Terry is good for 15.8 PPG, and at times this season, some or all of Shawn Marion, Tyson Chandler, Jose Barea, Peja Stojakovic and Rodrique Beaubois have been double-digit point scorers.
Jason Kidd is no longer doing a lot of shooting, but he is good for 8.2 APG and 4.4 RPG.
The regular season series has to scare the wits out of the Mavs as well. Portland won the two meetings at home in the Rose Garden, 104-96 and 104-101, and Nowitzki was in the fold for both games.
The Blazers went 2-2 SU and 3-1 against the NBA odds this year versus Dallas, and they are now 6-2 ATS over the course of their last eight meetings overall.