Game of the day: Jazz at Nuggets
By SEAN MURPHY
Key injuries
The Jazz were without both Carlos Boozer and Andrei Kirilenko in their final regular season game.
Boozer will be a game-time decision for Saturday's Game 1 of the Western Conference quarterfinals against the Denver Nuggets, according to a report Friday by the Salt Lake Tribune.
The team's leading scorer and rebounder, Boozer missed practice on Friday after suffering an oblique injury during Tuesday's win over the Golden State Warriors.
Boozer was trailing a fast break and had no contact with any other player before clutching his side. He left the game and did not return.
Boozer is averaging 19.7 points and 11.3 rebounds.
Kirilenko, meanwhile, remains a question mark after missing the last two weeks with a strained calf muscle.
The Nuggets got Kenyon Martin back in the fold last Friday against San Antonio, but his return was short-lived. He was forced to exit Tuesday’s game in Phoenix in the second quarter after aggravating a knee injury. He is currently listed as probable for Saturday’s playoff opener.
The Nuggets are 7-13-2 ATS without Martin in the lineup this season.
Joey Graham missed the Nuggets' last three regular season games, but practiced Thursday and should be ready to play Saturday.
History lesson
The Jazz and Nuggets met four times during the regular season with Denver prevailing in three of those games.
From a betting perspective, two of those results landed right on the number, while the other two went to the Nuggets. The over cashed in three of their four matchups.
The Jazz haven’t covered a game in this series since April of 2008. Since then, they’ve gone 0-6-2 ATS. Meanwhile, six of the last seven meetings here in Denver have played over the total.
Out of tune
The Utah Jazz were one of the hottest teams in the league from early January until late March, but have since cooled off.
Since the beginning of April, the Jazz have split six games SU, posting a 2-4 ATS record along the way. They could have avoided this matchup by holding serve against the Suns at home on Wednesday night but lost by 14 points as 5-point favorites.
“We just need to put this one behind us,” guard Deron Williams told the media. “We had a chance to get the three seed but we let this one slip away and we don’t have home-court advantage, but there’s still a lot of basketball to play.”
Utah can take solace in the fact that it was a winning team on the road during the regular season, going 21-20 SU and 23-17-1 ATS.
Weary Nuggets
It seemed as if the Denver Nuggets ran out of gas down the stretch, dropping seven of their final 13 games.
Injuries played a significant role, as Kenyon Martin missed 18 consecutive games and Chris Andersen was also in and out of the lineup.
The Nuggets coaching situation has been a unique one, with George Karl taking a leave of absence to receive cancer treatment. Adrian Dantley has done an adequate job, but he’s not nearly as adept at making in-game adjustments.
Dantley was bewildered by his team’s lack of effort in their regular season finale in Phoenix.
“They just played harder than us from what I saw,” Dantley told reporters. “It just seemed like they had more effort, they played harder. You’ve got a big game, you can’t dig yourself a hole like that. It looked like we weren’t ready.”
Playoff progress
Both teams reached the postseason last year, but only the Nuggets had any success.
The Jazz drew a tough first-round matchup and were ousted by the eventual champion Lakers in five games. They did manage to cover the spread in three of those five contests.
The Nuggets also met their demise against the Lakers last Spring, but they managed to win two series’ before that. In fact, Denver reeled off nine consecutive ATS wins to open last year’s playoffs.
Utah is just 8-10 ATS in 18 road playoff games since 2007. The Nuggets are a modest 7-6 ATS in 13 home playoff games over that same time frame.
Chicago (41-41, 42-38-2 ATS) at Cleveland (61-21, 38-43-1 ATS)
LeBron James and the Cavaliers, who own home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, open first-round play against the eighth-seeded Bulls at Quicken Loans Arena.
Chicago won and cashed in its last three regular-season games, and needed all three victories in order to hold off Toronto and squeak into the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. On Wednesday night, the Bulls topped Charlotte 98-89 as a 1½-point road favorite to halt a 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS skid that nearly ended their season.
Cleveland clinched the home-court edge on April 4 and played like it down the final stretch, going 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in its last six meaningless games, including a four-game losing streak to close the regular season (1-3 ATS), ending with Wednesday’s 99-83 loss at Atlanta as a 4½-point underdog.
Chicago went just 17-24 on the highway this year (22-19 ATS), averaging 97.0 ppg and giving up 100.9. But it did win five of its last six on the road and it went 7-1 ATS in the last eight as a visitor. Meanwhile, Cleveland outscored visitors by nearly nine points per game (103.3-94.4) while shooting 49.7 percent and holding opponents to 43.9 percent shooting. Prior to losing its final two meaningless home contests, Cleveland had been 35-4 SU but just 16-25 ATS at the Q.
Cleveland, in the postseason for the fifth straight year, reached the Eastern Conference finals last year before bowing out to Orlando in six games despite having the home-court edge. Chicago, in the playoffs for the fifth time in six years but with a coaching controversy swirling around Vinny Del Negro, pushed the Celtics to seven games in the first round last year, losing the deciding game 109-99 in Boston.
These Central Division rivals have split their last six meetings SU and ATS, with Chicago winning the most contest 109-108 on April 8, coming up short as a 6½-point home chalk, but James did not play for Cleveland. The underdog has covered in four of the last five meetings, but the home team is 18-8 ATS in the last 26 clashes, and the Cavs are 10-3 in the last 13 matchups at the Q.
Prior to the last two series clashes, the SU winner had cashed in 27 straight Bulls-Cavaliers matchups.
The Bulls are on ATS upswings of 12-5 overall, 7-1 on the road, 10-2 on Saturday and 5-1 getting points, but they’re also 1-3-1 ATS in their last five first-round playoff games and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against opponents with a winning percentage above .600.
The Cavaliers went a league-best 50-32 ATS in regular-season play last year, but fell well off that pace this season, and they enter the postseason on ATS purges of 2-8 overall, 0-5 on Saturday, 1-9 after a SU loss, 1-6 after a non-cover, 1-6 as a favorite and 2-6 when laying 11 points or more. That said, Cleveland has cashed in five straight first-round playoff games and is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 outings as a playoff chalk.
The over is on runs of 4-0 when Cleveland is favored in the playoffs and 7-0 with Chicago a playoff ‘dog. However, the Cavs are on “under” rolls of 13-5-1 inside the Central Division, 4-0 laying 11 points or more, 6-2 after a SU loss and 9-4 after a non-cover, and the Bulls are on “under” surges of 6-2 overall, 9-4 on the road, 10-3 in the Eastern Conference and 4-1 against winning teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Milwaukee (46-36, 52-28-2 ATS) at Atlanta (53-29, 48-34 ATS)
The Bucks, seeded sixth in the East but with the NBA’s best spread-covering record, travel to Philips Arena to take on the third-seeded Hawks.
Milwaukee approached the season’s midpoint with a 16-22 SU record, then put the hammer down from there, finishing on a 30-14 run while going a blistering 32-10-2 ATS. The Bucks finished with Wednesday’s 106-95 road win over a resting Boston squad, cashing as a three-point favorite. They won five of their final second games (4-2-1 ATS) despite losing center and leading rebounder Andrew Bogut (multiple hand and arm injuries) for the rest of the season.
Atlanta grabbed the third seed by winning its last four regular-season games, cashing in the last three in a row, following a 1-3 SU and ATS hiccup. The Hawks routed Cleveland 99-83 as a 4½-point home chalk Wednesday, though the Cavs were resting LeBron James. Atlanta held 14 of its last 19 opponents under 100 points.
The Bucks are 18-23 SU on the road this year – despite averaging exactly as many points (95.4) as they allowed – but they went a league-best 28-12-1 ATS in those contests. Atlanta is 34-7 SU (25-16 ATS) at Philips Arena, outscoring visitors by nearly nine points per game (104.5-96).
Milwaukee is in the playoffs for the first time since 2006, when it lost to Detroit in five games in the first round. It hasn’t made won a postseason series since reaching the conference finals in 2001. Atlanta is in the postseason for the third year in a row following an eight-year drought. In 2008, the Hawks pushed eventual champion Boston to seven games in the first round, then knocked off Miami in seven games last year before getting swept by Cleveland in the conference semifinals. The SU winner is 17-0-1 ATS in Atlanta’s playoff games the last two years.
Atlanta is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in this rivalry, including a 104-96 road win laying 1½ points just five days ago. The chalk is on a 9-3-1 ATS tear in the last 13 contests between these two, and the road team has cashed in the last four meetings. Also, the SU winner is on an 11-3-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.
The Bucks are on a 1-6-1 ATS dive in first-round playoff games, but are otherwise on a slew of pointspread upswings, including 36-14-2 overall, 21-5-1 on the road, 34-15-2 in the Eastern Conference, 8-1 on Saturday and 13-3 as an underdog. The Hawks are on pointspread runs of 5-2 at home, 7-1 against the Central Division, 7-1 against winning teams, 10-2 following a SU win and 4-1 after a spread-cover.
Milwaukee is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 7-0 against winning teams, 12-3-2 in first-round playoff games and 4-0 as a playoff pup, though the under is 9-3 in the Bucks’ last 12 against the Southeast Division and 5-1 with Milwaukee coming off a two-day break. Atlanta is on “over” surges of 14-3 after a SU win, 4-1 after two days off and 4-1 against winning teams, but the under for the Hawks is on runs of 5-1 against the Central Division and 4-1 in first-round playoff contests.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in eight consecutive meetings overall and four in a row in Atlanta.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and OVER
Miami (47-35, 42-39-1 ATS) at Boston (50-32, 33-47-2 ATS)
The streaking Heat, seeded fifth, head all the way up the Eastern seaboard to open their first-round series against the floundering Celtics at the TD Garden.
Miami peeled off victories in 18 of its last 22 games (13-8-1 ATS), going from two games under .500 to 12 games over .500, and has won eight in a row on the road (7-1 ATS). The Heat finished the season with a 94-86 overtime win against New Jersey as a 4½-point home chalk, moving to 12-1 SU (8-4-1 ATS) in its last 13 contests.
A rapidly aging Boston squad limped to the finish line, losing seven of its last 10 games (both SU and ATS), including going 1-3 SU and ATS in the last four. On Wednesday, with nothing on the line and with many starters resting, the Celts lost to Milwaukee 106-95 as a three-point home pup, ending the regular season in a 4-9 ATS funk. Additionally, Doc Rivers’ troops lost five of their last six home games SU and ATS, but ironically the one victory came against LeBron James and the Cavaliers (117-113 as a 1½-point chalk).
By finishing the regular season with an eight-game road winning streak, the Heat enter the playoffs at 23-18 SU (24-17 ATS) as a visitor this season. The Celtics were actually better on the road (26-15) than at home (24-17), and they’re a meager 12-28-1 ATS at the Garden.
Miami, in the playoffs for the sixth time in the last seven years, lost to Atlanta in seven games in the first round last year and hasn’t gotten out of the opening round since winning the NBA title in 2006. Boston has qualified for the playoffs for a third straight year, but it followed up its 17th championship in 2008 by falling to Orlando in seven games in the conference semis last season.
Boston has owned this rivalry lately, winning five in a row (3-2 ATS) and 11 of the last 12 (8-4 ATS). Most recently, the C’s earned a 107-102 win on Feb. 3, but the Heat narrowly cashed as a 5½-point road pup. Despite that result, the favorite has still covered in eight of the last 10 meetings, but the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests.
The winner has covered the number in eight of the last 10 meetings between these teams. Also, the winner cashed in all seven of Miami’s postseason games against Atlanta last year, and went 10-3-1 ATS in Boston’s postseason run last spring.
The Heat are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 opening-round playoff games and are in a 1-4-1 ATS funk as a postseason ‘dog, but they also sport several positive pointspread streaks, including the aforementioned 7-1 on the highway, 8-3 as an underdog and 13-6 following a SU win. The Celts are on ATS slides of 3-8 overall, 20-44-1 at home, 1-6 as a favorite and 20-42 as a home chalk, though they also carry ATS upswings of 4-1 on Saturday, 15-7 as a favorite of less than five points and 3-1-1 in first-round playoff games.
Miami is on “under” surges of 11-4-2 on the road, 8-0 when going on two days’ rest, 8-2-1 as a road pup, 4-1 in first-round playoff games, 35-16-1 after a SU win and 37-17-1 after a spread-cover. However, the over has hit in four of the Heat’s last five overall and five of its last six against winning teams. Boston, meanwhile, is on a boatload of “over” streaks, including 4-1 overall, 5-0 at home, 4-0 in first-round playoff games, 13-3 after a non-cover and 37-16 coming off a SU loss.
In addition, the total has cleared the posted price in five of the last six meetings between these rivals, and the over is 3-1-1 in the last five Heat-Celtics clashes in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI
Utah (53-29, 49-30-3 ATS) at Denver (53-29, 35-41-6 ATS)
After losing two of their final three regular-season games, the Nuggets fell to the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference playoffs and host the fifth-seeded Jazz in Game 1 in a matchup of Northwest Division rivals inside the Pepsi Center.
Utah split its last three six games (2-4 ATS), including Wednesday’s season-ending 100-86 home loss to the Suns as a five-point favorite, a crushing defeat that cost the Jazz the No. 3 seed and home-court advantage in the first round. Still, from Jan. 6 through the end of the season, Jerry Sloan’s squad was one of the hottest in the NBA, going 35-13 SU and 31-14-3 ATS.
Denver moved from the No. 2 seed to the No. 4 spot with its struggles down the stretch, which included Tuesday’s ugly 123-101 loss in Phoenix as a five-point underdog in the season finale. In addition to dropping two of their final three contests, the Nuggets – playing without coach George Karl (cancer treatment) on the sidelines – went 6-7 over the final three weeks and enter the playoffs in a 4-11-1 ATS funk.
The Jazz went 21-20 (23-17-1 ATS) on the highway in the regular season but took their final two roadies, winning and covering at New Orleans and Golden State. Denver went 34-7 inside the Pepsi Center, but finished a mediocre 20-20-1 ATS.
The Jazz were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs a season ago by the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). They’re in the postseason for the fourth consecutive year, but have lost four of their last six first-round series.
The Lakers also took out the Nuggets on their way to the NBA title, topping Denver in six games (3-3 ATS) in the Western Conference Finals. Prior to meeting Los Angeles, the Nuggets had won eight of 10 playoff contests in the first two rounds – eliminating New Orleans and Dallas – while going 10-0 ATS. This is Denver’s sixth consecutive playoff appearance after a nine-year drought from 1995-2003.
The Nuggets took three of four (2-2 ATS) in the season series Utah, winning both meetings in Denver (113-105 as a five-point favorite on Oct. 28; 119-112, pushing as a seven-point chalk on Jan. 17). The Nuggets have won five of the last seven clashes while going 6-0-2 ATS in the last eight. Also, the home team is 9-1 (5-3-2 ATS) in the last 10 matchups between these two, and the chalk is 23-10-3 in the last 36.
Utah is on ATS slides of 0-4 as an underdog, 3-14-1 as a road ‘dog of five to 10½ points and 2-6 on the road against teams with winning home records, but it is on several positive pointspread runs, including 31-14-3 overall, 17-8-1 on the road, 21-10-2 against the Western Conference, 12-3-1 on Saturday and 7-0-2 after two days off.
In addition to their 4-11-1 ATS slump to end the regular season, the Nuggets are on pointspread skids of 3-8 as a favorite and 1-4-2 on Saturday, but they are on ATS surges of 20-8-1 after three or more days off, 8-1 at home against teams with winning road records, 53-26-3 as a favorite of five to 10½ points and 4-0-2 against Northwest Division rivals.
The Jazz are on “under” runs of 6-2-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, and 6-2-1 against the Western Conference, but they have topped the total in 20 of 27 against Northwest Division teams, four straight after two days off and nine of 13 after a straight-up loss. Denver is on “under” streaks of 11-4 overall, 6-2 at home, 8-2 as a favorite and 7-3 after a non-cover, but it is on “over” pushes of 4-1 as a playoff favorite, 12-5 against teams with winning records and 6-2 at home against teams with winning road records.
In this rivalry, the over has cashed in four of five overall and six of seven in the Mile High City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
NBA RoundUp For 4/17
By Dan Bebe
Bulls @ Cavaliers - Cleveland by 11 with a total of 191.5. Playoff time! It's a totally different bird, so I don't want you guys forgetting EVERYTHING we've learned about money management over the last 6 months and squandering our NBA profits on games where the lines, for all intents and purposes, are going to be quite tight. As Vegas-Runner always notes, books make their money because of volume in big games, and unless there's a huge public split, there isn't going to be a TON of inherent line value, and that's really for any game, so keep a close eye on the bet percentages in these heavily bet games. On this game in particular, we've been watching the bets come in all week, and the action is split almost right down the middle. So, when the line doesn't give us a strong indicator, we have to look at motivational issues, and, really, the sheer skill level of each team. The line certainly indicates what we already know, which is that the Cavs are the vastly superior ball club. From a motivational standpoint, I wonder if the Bulls don't feel like they did what they set out to do. A team in turmoil, Chicago barely squeezed into the Playoffs, and I think the difficult question here is whether Chicago feels like they can finally relax, or whether they play like they have nothing to lose. I happen to believe this particular Chicago team isn't all that motivated. They won some big games, but they never looked, in my opinion, all that comfortable doing it, and while I'd love to bet on a team to stay within 11 points, the mere fact that that's how high the line had to be raised to get equal money is a strong indicator of how bad Chicago really is. I know Lebron might be rusty from taking some time off, or at least that's what Chicago-backers will say, but this side is absolutely a PASS for me. The total has actually moved up 1.5 points off the opening number, and that strikes me as interesting, given how tough, slow and grinding playoff games can be. That line move keeps me off the total, most likely, though I think this one eventually slows down.
Bucks @ Hawks - Atlanta by 8.5 with a total of 186.5. This is really where we see how great a coach Scott Skiles truly is. Can he take this undersized, somewhat rag-tag group of overachievers, and steal a game in Atlanta? We're talking about a Hawks team that was among the top few home teams in the entire NBA, so it won't be easy. This is a series where I happen to believe that the best course of action might be to watch a game and see how Skiles tries to defend the Hawks. I struggle to find a way that Milwaukee can really compete without Bogut against a bigger, stronger club like Atlanta, especially on the road, but you always know those road teams are going to come out hungry, so it's not an impossibility. I happen to think this line is pretty accurate, though I also like Milwaukee to not go down without a fight. IF the Hawks cover, it will occur pretty late in the game, when Milwaukee potentially runs out of gas, but if the Bucks come out and hit some shots early -- get the confidence going in the playoffs -- they could be a tough nut the rest of the game. I would offer a miniscule lean on the side to the Bucks. On the total, I think this ultra-low number is going to drive money to the over. That means we're getting value on the Under, especially if the line climbs at all as we approach game time.
Heat @ Celtics - Boston by 4 with a total of 185. I'm honestly a tad surprised we're seeing this line at just 4. I know Boston's been looking downright silly near the end of the season, but something tells me those old legs weren't all that concerned with making a push for better playoff seeding, and instead they just seemed to want that one win over the Cavs, and after they knew they could beat Cleveland, Boston kind of went to sleep. Looking at the season series, Boston seemed to outplay Miami in most aspects, winning all 3 games, and covering 2 of 3. The only game Chicago covered was by the hook. And really, Boston probably could have won all 3 games by more if they limited the turnovers just a bit. Boston turned it over 24 times in the second meeting between these two teams, and I have to think Doc Rivers has been trying to implore his guys to take care of the basketball. I happen to think the old farts do just that. Miami has a wider range of potential results, I feel. They play good defense, but they may or may not score on a daily basis. Boston's defense is decent (not as good as in years past), but they can score, and those double-pick-and-roll situations Boston sets up at the perimeter are nearly indefensible. I actually lean to the slightly more public side, and I think Boston covers by a bucket. The total is probably accurate, as we saw a few games between these teams go way, way over similar numbers in the regular season, so for oddsmakers to bring this one out at the same general number is their way of telling us this is the real number, so we should get used to it. Slight lean to the Under.
Jazz @ Nuggets - Denver by 5 with a total of 209. I think folks are putting too much stock in the Nuggets slump in late March and very early April. This team is good. They have Kenyon Martin back, partially healthy, and Chauncey Billups is about as dangerous a player as there is in the Playoffs. It also doesn't hurt to have one of the 2 or 3 players in the NBA that can legitimately create his own shot any time he wants in Carmelo Anthony. I think this game (and series) is a great matchup of two hard-nosed teams that want to bump and smash and score and come out slightly less beat up at day's end. The Jazz do it with pinpoint offensive execution - a "ton" of screens is an understatement. The Nuggets do it with breakneck speed, explosive scoring, opportunistic defense, and the long range jumper. I happen to think that because of Denver's slump, we're getting a pretty darn low number for the Nuggets at home. I'm a little concerned that the public does seem to enjoy that Denver side, but I think the Nuggets have a nice shot to cover this number. In all likelihood, all four games today might be decided by 4 points or less on the sides, and that's a huge reason why I suggest treading lightly. Here, tiny lean to the public side of Denver, and lean to the Under, as folks are going to see these two teams and forget how things slow down in the Playoffs.