Saturday's Best NBA Bets
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies (-2, 191.5)
Manu Ginobili makes all the difference in the world for the San Antonio Spurs.
Ginobili missed Game 1’s defeat to the upstart Grizzles but returned to provide a key spark in Game 2’s six-point win. In the victory, he had 17 points, seven rebounds and four assists, despite wearing a huge brace on his injured arm.
"It was uncomfortable," Ginobili said of the brace, which he will wear indefinitely. "But I felt I did OK. I took some risk. I went for some steals and rebounds and it wasn't that I played worried about getting hit or something."
And that’s just the way the Spurs need him to play.
Ginobili has an even split of his minutes against Memphis this season, getting on the floor for 148 minutes and sitting out for 145. When he’s on the court, the team shoots 52.1 percent from the field, averages 106 points per game over 48 minutes and is plus-42 in points overall.
However, when he is off the floor, San Antonio shoots just 39.6 percent from the field, averages a mere 88.3 points per game over 48 minutes and the team is minus-49 in points.
"Manu's Manu, come on," Grizzlies forward Shane Battier said. "I don't care if he's in a body cast, he's going to be out there and he's going to be a handful to deal with. That's why he's a great player."
And that’s why San Antonio is going to win.
Pick: San Antonio
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets (-5.5, 205)
Nuggets coach George Karl is searching for answers.
After watching his team get smacked in a Game 2 loss in Oklahoma City, he must find a way to provide a spark as the teams head to Colorado. But not much may help at this point.
The Thunder have beaten the Nuggets 4 times in the past 16 days and appear to have psychologically cracked them as well.
Mercurial Denver swingman J.R. Smith questioned his team’s heart and his desire to return to the team next season, and Karl didn’t deny the fact that Smith could be in his doghouse. In fact, he basically said his player that averages 12.3 points per game this season – fifth most on the team – might not even see much of the floor the rest of the series.
“He gives us minus-17 in six minutes,” Karl said. “Those guys shouldn’t get second chances. I’m not saying it was all his fault, I’m just saying – when that happens, I got to make a change.”
Karl also must find a way to juggle his lineup. Guard Aaron Afflalo is expected to return from a hamstring injury to make his series debut, but he likely will be limited in his minutes and play. The coach also said he is leaning toward starting Ray Felton over swingman Wilson Chandler.
The moves may work – but it likely is too little, too late.
Pick: Oklahoma City
What Bettors Need to Know: Saturday's NBA Playoff Action
Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers (-5, 187.5)
Chicago leads series 3-0
THE STORY: The Indiana Pacers looked as though they had Derrick Rose contained in Game 3 - until the final minute rolled around. Staring at elimination, the Pacers will need to come up with another plan to stop the star point guard if they hope to keep playing. With the exception of Rose’s heroics, the Chicago Bulls have not looked invincible in the first three games of the best-of-seven set but they have shown a great ability to close. The Bulls will be looking to close out the entire series when they face the Pacers in Game 4 at Conseco Field House on Saturday.
TV: 2:30 p.m. ET, TNT, CSCH
ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana has held a lead in the fourth quarter in each of the first three games but just does not seem to have the personnel available offensively or defensively to close out Chicago. After fighting back to tie the game, 84-84, with 1:42 left on Thursday, Indiana missed its final four shots and had to settle for an off-balance, contested 3-point attempt by Danny Granger despite calling a timeout and drawing up a play with 17 seconds left. Granger scored the last four field goals for the Pacers in the contest and finished with a team-high 21 points. Only two other players - Dahntay Jones with 11 and Tyler Hansbrough with 10 - reached double figures for the Pacers in Game 3.
ABOUT THE BULLS: The defense that held Indiana at bay down the stretch is easy to overlook because of the continued highlight show from Rose. But it is that strong team defense that has kept Chicago in the games until Rose has been able to take over. The Bulls held the Pacers to 38 percent shooting in Game 3, including 1 of 10 from beyond the arc. Rose had easily his worst game of the series, shooting 4 of 18 from the field and recording more turnovers (five) than assists (two). But the superstar stepped up when it counted, taking the ball after a timeout and driving the lane for his lone field goal of the second half, putting the Bulls up for good with 17 seconds left in the 88-84 victory. He shot 13 of 15 from the free throw line to finish with a game-high 23 points.
WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Rookie guard Paul George continues to struggle for Indiana, shooting 4 of 18 through the first three games. Kyle Korver is 7 of 8 from 3-point range in the series for the Bulls.
KEY STATISTIC: Chicago buried 9 of 20 attempts from beyond the arc in Game 3 while the Pacers struggled to 1 of 10 from the perimeter.
TRENDS:
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Indiana.
* Bulls are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight playoff games as favorites.
* Pacers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.
LAST WORD: Indiana interim coach Frank Vogel gave Korver credit after Thursday’s game. “Korver killed us in the fourth,” Vogel said. “He even killed us on the last play when we couldn’t leave him to help. That allowed Rose to get to the bucket.”
Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trail Blazers (-4.5, 187.5)
Dallas leads series 2-1
THE STORY: Portland used a 12-2 run to start the fourth quarter and that proved key in Thursday’s 97-92 Game 3 victory over the Dallas Mavericks, who had 16 turnovers. The Trail Blazers will now try to even the series in Game 4 Saturday at the Rose Garden. Dallas still must prove it can win on the road, having lost 17 of its last 19 playoff road games.
TV: 5 p.m. ET, TNT, KGW, KTXA
ABOUT THE MAVERICKS: Dallas got a better-than-expected effort from Jason Terry, who had 29 points on 10-for-13 shooting and seven rebounds, and the continued steady play of Dirk Nowitzki, who had 25 points and nine rebounds. But the Mavericks got just two points from Tyson Chandler before he fouled out with 7:24 remaining. The Mavericks need more from their best interior defender. Nowitzki, who had made 28 of 30 free throws entering Game 3, was just 4 of 7. “We gave away way too many points,” Terry said. “Free throws, turnovers and early on in the first quarter, we gave them too much confidence.”
ABOUT THE TRAIL BLAZERS: Portland got exactly what it needed Thursday with breakout games from Wesley Matthews and Brandon Roy. Matthews scored 22 of his 25 points in the first half, making four 3-pointers in the first six minutes. Roy shook off two bad games, along with his criticism for lack of playing time, and scored 16 points while being effective on both ends of the court. “Coming home, it was a combination of must-win, our home crowd,” Matthews said. “They took care of their home court. Now it's time for us to take care of ours.” The Trail Blazers even got six key minutes from Chris Johnson. The rookie center had three rebounds and two blocked shots in his first taste of playoff action. “Role players play a lot better when they’re at home,” Nowitzki said.
WHO’S HOT/WHO’S NOT: Jason Kidd’s game cooled off Thursday. He was averaging 21 points in the first two games, but had just eight in Game 3 and went just 2 of 8 from 3-point range. Roy made six of his first seven shots, and added four assists and no turnovers in 24 minutes.
KEY STATISTIC: Dallas was uncharacteristically shaky from the free-throw line in Game 3, making just 13 of 23 attempts.
TRENDS:
* Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Mavericks are 1-3-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Portland.
LAST WORD: “We continue to game-plan for Roy as an All-Star player because he’s capable of doing that on any night. He’s done it to us, so I’m not surprised.” - Dallas coach Rick Carlisle on a strategy for Roy.
San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies (-2, 192)
Series tied 1-1
THE STORY: An unexpected split in San Antonio has the Memphis Grizzlies thinking upset as they welcome the Spurs to town Saturday night in Game 3 of their Western Conference first-round series. The top-seeded Spurs took charge late in a defensive battle in Game 2, prevailing 93-87 behind 17 points from returning star Manu Ginobili.
TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, FSTN
ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Returning home with a 2-0 lead would have made the Grizzlies much happier, but they'll gladly take a split in Texas against the powerhouse Spurs. Memphis stuck around until the final minute of Game 2 but fell just short, as George Hill buried four free throws in the final moments to put the game away. Sam Young led the way with 17 points, but the Grizzlies needed more from stars Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. The frontcourt duo managed just 23 points on a combined 7-of-23 shooting performance. Still, with home-court advantage now on the Grizzlies' side, Memphis comes into Game 3 with plenty of confidence after beating San Antonio twice at home in the regular season.
ABOUT THE SPURS: Ginobili clawed his way into the lineup despite a nagging elbow injury that required a heavy black brace. The speedy swingman didn't disappoint, playing his trademark solid defense while making some key shots down the stretch as the Spurs eked out the victory. Tim Duncan, George Hill and Richard Jefferson each added 16 points apiece as San Antonio employed a balanced attack while holding Memphis under 40 percent shooting for the game. The Spurs' next hurdle will be winning a game in Tennessee, where they were outscored by 23 points in two regular-season encounters. Parker missed the 109-93 loss on March 1 with a calf strain; Duncan sat out the March 27 defeat while Ginobili left halfway through.
WHO'S HOT/WHO'S NOT: Gasol has done a little bit of everything so far, averaging 18 points, 13 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and a steal in the series. Jefferson is 9 of 14 from the field, including 5 of 9 from beyond the arc. Look for him to be more active in the offense if the Spurs sputter in Game 3.
KEY STATISTIC: 0 - The number of free throws Parker attempted in Game 2. He went 14 for 16 from the line in Game 1, helping him score 20 points despite shooting just 4 for 16 from the field.
TRENDS:
* Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Memphis.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.
* Spurs are 0-7 ATS in the last seven meetings.
LAST WORD: "As bad as we were (Wednesday), it was still close at the end." - Gasol
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets (-5.5, 204.5)
Oklahoma City leads series 2-0
THE STORY: A two-game lead has the Oklahoma City Thunder flying high as they visit the Denver Nuggets in Game 3 of their Western Conference quarterfinal series Saturday. The fourth-seeded Thunder did what they needed to do, winning the first two games in Oklahoma City behind strong performances from Kevin Durant and Kevin Westbrook. As the scene shifts to Colorado, the Nuggets will undoubtedly look to use their home-court advantage to get back into the series.
TV: 10 p.m. ET, ESPN, ALT
ABOUT THE NUGGETS: Denver did a better job of containing the Thunder's dynamic duo on Wednesday, but the Nuggets' offense fizzled from the outset as Oklahoma City opened up a 16-point first-quarter lead and cruised to a 106-89 victory. Ty Lawson led the way with 20 points while Nene overcame a 2-for-8 shooting performance to add 16 points. Thanks in large part to the presence of since-departed Carmelo Anthony, the Nuggets were the highest-scoring team in the NBA during the regular season. Denver hasn't shown the same chops since Anthony was dealt to New York and is averaging just 96 points in the playoffs. The Nuggets have also beaten up on the boards, outrebounded by a 91-65 margin through the first two games.
ABOUT THE THUNDER: After combining for 72 points in Game 1, Durant and Westbrook were thrilled to get some support on Wednesday. Durant had 23 points and Westbrook added 21, but three other Thunder players finished in double figures. Oklahoma used a 19-3 first-quarter run to jump out early, and Durant and Wesbrook combined for eight straight points in the fourth after the Nuggets closed the deficit to 10. The Thunder big men showed plenty of tenacity, snagging 17 offensive rebounds in Game 2. Kendrick Perkins had a game-high six offensive boards, more than the entire Denver roster. If the Thunder continue to dominate on the glass to this extent, this series may not make it back to Oklahoma City.
WHO'S HOT/WHO'S NOT: Durant (32 points per game) and Westbrook (26 ppg) outscored Denver's starting five in Game 1, and likely would have done the same in Game 2 had the game not been decided so early. Nuggets G J.R. Smith is shooting just 28.6 percent (4 for 14) in the series and has missed all four of his 3-point attempts.
KEY STATISTIC: 7 - Westbrook's turnover total in Game 2. No other player from either team had more than two. Westbrook has 12 turnovers in two games so far, and will need to be more careful with the ball going forward.
TRENDS:
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Thunder are 11-4 ATS in the last 15 meetings.
* Over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in Denver.
LAST WORD: Denver was one of the best teams in the NBA in its own arena, going 33-8 in the regular season. Only the San Antonio Spurs (36-5) and Chicago Bulls (36-5) had better home marks.
NBA Betting: Upstart Memphis Grizzlies host Spurs
By: Michael Robinson
The eighth seeded Memphis Grizzlies continue their march towards history as they host the San Antonio Spurs on Saturday night. This best-of-seven series is tied at 1-1 as it moves to Memphis.
The Don Best odds screen has the Grizzlies as two-point favorites in their first home playoff game since 2006. The total is 192 points and ESPN will broadcast from FedExForum at 4:30 p.m. (PT).
An NBA eighth seed has only eliminated a No. 1 three times in history. The latest was the 2006-07 Golden State Warriors, which beat the Dallas Mavericks in six games despite losing 25 more contests during the regular season.
The Grizzles finished 46-36 straight-up this regular season, 15 games behind San Antonio (61-21 SU). The Spurs were also 36-5 SU at home, but that didn’t stop Memphis from a 101-98 opening road win last Sunday as 6½-point underdogs.
San Antonio was playing without Manu Ginobili, who sprained his right elbow in the regular season finale. Memphis’ big man tandem of Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol combined for 49 points and 23 rebounds, with the team shooting 55.2 percent from the floor. It was the first playoff win for the expansion franchise, debuting in Vancouver in 1995.
Ginobili did play in Game 2 on Wednesday, scoring a team-high 17 points despite wearing a bulky brace. Memphis shot a much more pedestrian 39.8 percent from the field, but only trailed by two points (89-87) after a Sam Young three-pointer with 14 seconds left. Memphis lost 93-87, but ‘covered’ for the second straight game as eight-point ‘dogs.
The 180-points scored went ‘under’ the 194½-point total. Game 1’s 199 points went ‘over’ the 196½-point total. The ‘over’ is 21-8 in San Antonio’s last 29 games overall.
The Grizzlies were 30-11 SU and 26-14-1 ATS at home during the regular season. That includes 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS to end the season. They’re the NBA’s best ATS team overall (54-29-1).
Memphis has done a great job shaking off the injury to second-leading scorer Rudy Gay (19.8 PPG). He was lost for the year in February with a dislocated shoulder. Young and Tony Allen are now starting at the wing positions, with Mike Conley running things from the point.
Coach Lionel Hollins has built a solid bench with the help of GM Chris Wallace. The gritty Shane Battier was a great addition at the trade deadline. O.J. Mayo is a key player after almost being traded and Darrell Arthur is a decent big man option.
The Spurs (44-38-2 ATS) haven’t had anything come easy for them lately. They had a six-game losing streak beginning in late March with Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker all missing at least one game. They did hold onto the No. 1 seed in the West, but finished behind Chicago for home court advantage throughout the playoffs.
Coach Gregg Popovich deserves a lot of Coach of the Year consideration. His nucleus was considered too old for a title, but he used a very deep bench to score 103.7 PPG (sixth in the NBA). Three-point shooting was a big factor (39.7 percent made, ranked first).
The problem in the playoffs is rotations tighten and superior depth is not that much of an advantage. Duncan also no longer dominates fourth quarters like in his youth and Ginobili needs to be healthy to help fill that role.
San Antonio was 25-16 SU and 25-15-1 ATS on the road this year, but struggled down the stretch at 1-6 SU (3-4 ATS).
The two days off should theoretically help the Spurs aging players, but they’re just 5-12 ATS on two days rest this season. Their inside guys will need their energy as Memphis leads the league in points in the paint and won’t settle for jumpers at home.
Game 4 will be played Monday in Memphis with San Antonito really in a bind with a Saturday defeat.
NBA Betting: Denver Nuggets, Thunder Game 3
By: Stephen Nover
Can Oklahoma City defeat Denver for a fifth straight time during a span of 19 days?
The Thunder can achieve this feat if they upset the Nuggets Saturday night at 7 (PT) at Denver's Pepsi Center.
Oddsmakers don’t see it happening making the desperate Nuggets a 5½-point home favorite. The ‘over/under’ is 205.
Denver led the NBA in scoring at 107.5 points per game during the regular season and ranked third overall in field goal percentage at 47.6. But in falling behind 2-0 in their best-of-seven first-round Western Conference playoff series against Oklahoma City, the Nuggets have averaged 96 points and shot 45 percent from the field.
Those two games were in Oklahoma City, though. Now the Nuggets are home where they won 33 of 41 games going 21-17-3 against the spread.
It’s obvious, however, that the Nuggets are having trouble matching up to the Thunder, a budding power seeking their first playoff series win since relocating from Seattle. Oklahoma City is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road contests.
The Thunder defeated Denver, 101-94, as 4½-point road ‘dogs on April 5 and then trounced the Nuggets, 104-89, as 4½-point home favorites on April 8. Both games went ‘under’ the total.
Center Kendrick Perkins, formerly of Boston, has provided the Thunder with a solid defensive presence and a shot-blocker to go along with defensive-minded Serge Ibaka.
The Nuggets have had two major problems against the Thunder – getting their offense going and trying to slow down Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook.
Denver was one of the hottest teams after February winning 19 of their last 24 regular-season games while going 12-7-1 ATS during their past 20 regular-season matchups.
The Nuggets were able to achieve this because of a major trade with the New York Knicks, which improved their depth and chemistry. They lost superstar Carmelo Anthony, but still finished as the No. 1 scoring team in the league while becoming a more unselfish team.
But the Thunder have exposed the Nuggets’ lack of a go-to-guy now that Anthony and Chauncey Billups are gone. Oklahoma City has controlled tempo by slowing things down forcing the Nuggets to operate more half-court offensive sets than they would like.
Going back to the past four head-to-head meetings – played during a span of 16 days – the Thunder have held the Nuggets to an average of 93.7 points and forced an average of 13 turnovers per game.
Durant and Westbrook combined for 72 points in the Thunder’s 107-103 Game 1 win. The Nuggets nearly won that game losing in large part on a controversial tip-in by Perkins that probably should have been ruled offensive goaltending.
The Nuggets were six-point underdogs in that game with the combined 210 points going ‘over’ the 204½-point total.
Durant and Westbrook combined for 44 points this past Wednesday in the Thunder’s 106-89 win as 4½-point favorites. Point guard Ty Lawson led Denver with 20 points. The closest the Nuggets could pull to was 10 points in the fourth quarter.
The combined 195 points went ‘under’ the 206-point total. It was the sixth time in eight matchups that Oklahoma City has gone ‘under’ when facing a playoff opponent. This has all occurred since Perkins became the starting center.
Durant, the two-time defending league scoring champ, is averaging 32 points in the series. He’s shooting 54 percent from the floor and has made 18 of 22 free throws for 81 percent.
The ‘under’ has cashed 14 of the last 20 times Oklahoma City has been a road ‘dog. The ‘under’ also has cashed four of the past five times the two teams have met.
Game 4 is set for Monday at 7:30 p.m. PT with Denver hosting. If the Nuggets are to pull out this series, they must win four of five games during an eight-day span.
Saturday Early Playoff Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Saturday NBA playoff card is loaded with four games as just one team looks to advance to the second round. The Bulls tip off the action going for the sweep of the feisty Pacers, while the Blazers look to even things up with the Mavs at the Rose Garden. We'll start in the Hoosier State with Indiana attempting to stretch out its series with Chicago to a fifth game.
Bulls at Pacers
The top seed in the Eastern Conference looks to become the first team to move towards the second round of the playoffs as Chicago battles Indiana. The Bulls haven't won a game by more than six points in this series, but Chicago has found ways to close out Indiana in the waning moments. The key for the Bulls in Saturday afternoon's game is to close things out while watching Atlanta and Orlando beat each other up in the 4/5 series.
Derrick Rose closed out the Pacers in Game 3 with a left-handed layup in the final seconds to give Chicago the lead for good and the decisive 3-0 series lead. Rose missed 14 of 18 shots from the field, but knocked down 13 of 15 from the line for a game-high 23 points. The Pacers had their opportunities as they led by five points with 9:30 left, but a 10-0 run by the Bulls in a 2:30 minute span gave Chicago some breathing room.
From the betting standpoint, the Bulls finally managed a cover in Game 3 as the game closed with Chicago laying 3½ points. Not everyone cashed in on the Bulls if you jumped on them as four or 4½-point favorites through most of Wednesday and Thursday afternoon. The Pacers have held their own by leading in the fourth quarter all of three games, but this team is in an impossible hole to get out of heading into Game 4.
However, just trying to stay alive at this point isn't profitable from a betting standpoint. Since 2004, 23 teams have been stuck in a 3-0 deficit; these clubs are 6-17 SU and 5-16-2 ATS in Game 4's, including a 2-4 SU/ATS mark last postseason. The only team not to close out a series was Boston, who actually lost a pair of Game 4's to Miami (first round) and Orlando (second round).
Following a high-scoring Game 1 (104-99), the 'under' has cashed the last two games rather easily. The Game 2 total was jacked up to 193 after a 188 total in the series opener, but the defense stepped up with a 96-90 Bulls' win in the second game. The total dropped 4 ½ points from Game 2 to Game 3, as Saturday's total is down to 187½.
The Bulls are listed as 4½ point favorites as the game will be televised nationally on TNT.
Mavs at Blazers
Portland fell short in each of the first two games at American Airlines Center, but the Blazers bounced back with a 97-92 victory in Game 3. The Mavs had only two players in double-figures as Jason Terry (29 points) and Dirk Nowitzki (25 points) carried the Dallas offense, which shot 51% from the floor. The Blazers shared the scoring load with four players in double-figures, including four three-pointers and 25 points from Wesley Matthews.
This is the only series in the playoffs that has seen two 'overs,' each coming in the last two games. The Game 3 'over' of 187½ barely hit following a strong first half that saw a combined 106 points. Portland has outscored Dallas in the second half of Game 1 and Game 3, while the Blazers have shot the ball extremely well in this series despite the 2-1 hole.
Depending on which line you bet for Game 3, the Mavs cashed as a 5½-point underdog, improving Dallas to 14-6 ATS as a road 'dog. However, Rick Carlisle's team is just 4-6 ATS the last 10 games in this spot following a 10-0 ATS start to the season when receiving points on the highway. Portland owns a 15-5 SU and 12-7-1 ATS mark as a home favorite off a win, but the Blazers sport a 2-9-1 ATS ledger as home 'chalk' of between 3½ and six points.
The Blazers have won four of the last five meetings at the Rose Garden, but Nate McMillan's squad is just 1-5 ATS the last three postseasons as a home favorite. On the flip side, the Mavs are 4-8-1 ATS as a road underdog in the playoffs since 2008, while the cashing the 'over' eight times in this role.
Portland is listed as four-point favorites with the total set at 186½. The game will be televised nationally on TNT, as this is a 2:05 PM local tip-off, which could be an 'under' look with the early start.
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