Game of the day: Lakers at Thunder Betting Preview
By SEAN MURPHY
eries story
If you only watched the first quarter of Game 1, you'd assume the Lakers were on their way to an easy series sweep.
Wrong.
Since being outscored by 14 points in the opening frame of their playoff debut, the Thunder hold an eight-point advantage over the last 11 quarters.
So what does it all add up to? A 2-1 Lakers series lead as we head into Game 4 on Saturday night in Oklahoma City.
Pointspread mismatch
It shouldn’t surprise anyone the Thunder have grabbed the cash in two of the first three games of this series.
The Lakers have fallen to a miserable 34-48-3 ATS this season, while Oklahoma City checks in at a highly profitable 50-35 ATS.
The Thunder are now 5-2 ATS in seven meetings with the Lakers this season. The home team has won six of those seven games straight up.
Durant doesn’t disappoint
Kevin Durant got off to a bit of a slow start in Game 1, but since then he’s been simply brilliant, pouring in 61 points and 27 rebounds over the last two games.
Guarding Kobe Bryant seemed to spark his offensive game on Thursday night. After missing 15 of his first 19 shots, his second half scoring outburst re-energized the raucous Ford Center crowd and got his team back in the game after trailing by seven at halftime.
“Scoring’s a big part of my game. It kind of overshadows the other parts of my game,” Durant told reporters following Game 3. “But if I continue to play hard on both ends, it’s going to come around for me. I was able to get free and make a couple shots, and that’s what got us going.”
Kobe Bryant applauded Durant’s defensive effort in Game 3.
“It was a matchup that caught me by surprise. I think he did a great job.”
Looking for an answer
The Lakers shouldn’t be too down on themselves. They’re still in the driver’s seat in this series, needing only to hold serve at home, where they’ve lost only seven times in 43 games this season.
Their ability to bounce back was key in last year’s championship run. Phil Jackson’s crew went a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS following a loss in the 2009 playoffs.
The Lakers found themselves in a similar situation in the opening round last spring. They won the first two games at home before dropping a narrow decision in Utah in Game 3. They answered with a decisive 108-94 victory in Game 4, and ultimately won the series in five games.
Things might be a little tougher this time around because the Thunder aren’t your typical eight-seed. Keep in mind, this is a team that won 50 games during the regular season.
Size matters
The Lakers own the size advantage, but that didn’t translate into success on the glass on Thursday. They were outrebounded by a wide 53-39 margin.
The team that has won the rebounding battle has won the game in each of the last five matchups between these two.
"We have to take advantage of our size," Pau Gasol said following Game 3. "We can get better shots. I feel that way. Give them credit because they did their job, but we let the game slip from our hands when we had it under control."
So far in these playoffs, the Lakers rank sixth in rebounding margin while the Thunder check in at 11th.
If the Lakers can do a better job on the boards in Game 4, they might just earn the opportunity to end this series back home in Game 5.
Saturday East Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The Eastern Conference playoffs continue on Saturday as a pair of home teams look to climb out of 0-2 holes. Milwaukee has lost each of the first two games to Atlanta by double-digits, heading back to the Bradley Center for a night tip. During the day, the Bobcats host their first-ever playoff game when they battle the Magic.
Magic at Bobcats - 2:00 PM EST
Orlando has pretty much cruised along through its first two victories against Charlotte as the Magic looks to go up 3-0 when the series moves to North Carolina. Stan Van Gundy's team has limited the Bobcats to 83 ppg in the two wins, while drilling 23 three-pointers.
Charlotte fell behind by double-digits at halftime of each loss, as the Bobcats' offense simply couldn't keep up with Orlando's perimeter game. Following the ‘push’ on the total in Game 1, the second game easily finished ‘under’ the total of 186 with the Magic winning, 92-77. Stephen Jackson and Gerald Wallace combined for 42 points, but there was little contribution elsewhere from Larry Brown’s squad.
The Magic now hits the road where they have had plenty of success recently, winning nine of the last 12 away from Amway Arena (8-4 ATS). Orlando owns a sterling 15-2 SU and 13-4 ATS mark on the road off a home win. The Magic has been one of the top ‘under’ clubs this season, while going ‘under’ the total in 11 of 15 games as road favorites off a home victory.
The Bobcats were one of the great home/away dichotomies in the NBA, compiling a 31-10 mark at home and 13-30 ledger on the road. Charlotte owns many solid wins on their home resume this season, including victories over the Lakers, Cavs (twice), Hawks (twice), Nuggets, Spurs, Thunder, and Suns. One of the playoff teams that the Bobcats couldn’t slay at home was the Magic, as Orlando went 2-0 SU/ATS at Time Warner Arena. The Magic has claimed each of the last four meetings in Charlotte dating back to 2008.
Charlotte responded well coming home off a loss, owning a 15-5 SU and 11-9 ATS mark. The Bobcats have been a terrific ‘under’ play as an underdog recently, doing so in 10 of the last 12 ‘dog opportunities.
The Magic is listed as a two-point road favorite in most spots, with the total set at 184 ½.
Hawks at Bucks – 7:00 PM EST
Atlanta is rolling right now, downing Milwaukee by double-digits in each of the first two wins of this series. The backdrop is now the Bradley Center, with the Bucks hosting their first playoff game since 2006 against the Pistons.
The Hawks held off the Bucks in the series opener, 102-92, as Atlanta jumped out to a 22-point halftime lead before Milwaukee made it interesting in the end. All five Hawks’ starters finished with double-figures, while rookie Brandon Jennings led all scorers with 34 points in his playoff debut.
Mike Woodson’s team had to work harder to close out the Bucks in Game 2 as Atlanta downed Milwaukee, 96-86. The Bucks struggled from downtown by shooting 4-24 (16.7%) from three-point range, while Jennings couldn’t duplicate his Game 1 effort with just nine points. Joe Johnson led all scorers with 27 as three Hawks tallied at least 20 points.
Playing without center Andrew Bogut has been a problem for the Bucks, as veteran Kurt Thomas is averaging 2.0 ppg through the first two losses. Al Horford has ripped up the paint for the Hawks by putting up a pair of double-doubles in the two victories.
The Hawks did have problems on the road in the regular season going 19-22 away from Philips Arena. Atlanta went 9-7 ATS but just 6-10 SU on the road off a home win, while the Bucks were a strong 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS at home following a road setback.
The two clubs split a pair of meetings at the Bradley Center as the Bucks held off the Hawks, 98-95 as six-point favorites on March 22. Atlanta avenged that defeat with a 104-96 triumph in mid-April, but the Hawks were firmly in control of that game as the Bucks were without Bogut.
The Bucks are currently listed as a one-point favorite, with the total set at 187.
Mr. Rogers’ Neighborhood
After the Bulls and Thunder won on Thursday night to climb back into their respective series, the Bobcats and Bucks may be a worth a look on Saturday. Dating back to the 2008 playoffs, home teams down 0-2 in the first round are now 8-3 ATS, including Chicago and Oklahoma City’s victories.
It’s amazing how the tide turns in a series as the Suns have rolled the Blazers twice to grab a 2-1 series lead. Portland held off Phoenix in the series opener, as the Blazers continue to play without leading scorer Brandon Roy. The Suns ambushed the Blazers in Game 2 before taking nearly a 30-point lead into the half of Thursday’s road blowout at Portland. The Suns were listed at 40 ½ regular season wins, but obliterated that total with 54 victories and have been one of the hottest clubs in the league since the Amare Stoudemire trade rumors went to sleep.
vegasinsider.com
Saturday's Western Tips
By Brian Edwards
Suns at Trail Blazers
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened this game as a pick ‘em with a total of 203. As of late Friday, most betting shops were listing the Suns as 1 ½-point favorites with a total of 202.
Phoenix (56-29 straight up, 50-34-1 against the spread) has won back-to-back games to regain homecourt advantage after losing Game 1 to the Trail Blazers. In Game 3 at Portland, the Suns dealt out woodshed treatment in the form of a 108-89 shellacking that was never in doubt. They covered the number as 1 ½-point road underdogs, while the 197 combined points resulted in the series’ first ‘under.’
Jason Richardson erupted for a game-high 42 points to spark Phoenix to victory in Game 3. The Michigan St. product also pulled down eight rebounds. Amare Stoudemire had 20 points, while Steve Nash finished with 14 points and 10 assists.
Andre Miller was the catalyst in Portland’s Game 1 win at Phoenix as an 8 ½-point underdog. Miller dropped 31 points on the Suns that night, but he settled for just 11 points in Game 3. LaMarcus Aldridge had a team-high 17 points in Thursday’s losing effort.
Portland’s star player, guard Brandon Roy, remains ‘out’ although he holds out hope of maybe returning to the court late next week. Of course, Greg Oden is also still ‘out’ for the rest of the year. Now Nicolas Batum is expected to miss Game 4 with a shoulder injury. Batum averaged 15.0 points per game in Games 1 and 2 at Phoenix.
Portland has a 26-16 SU record and a 19-22-1 ATS mark at home in the Rose Garden. The Trail Blazers have seen the ‘under’ go 23-19 in their home outings.
When playing on one day of rest like Game 4, Phoenix owns an incredibly lucrative 32-14 spread record.
The ‘over’ is 12-1-2 in 15 Phoenix games that had a total of 209 ½ or less this season.
If the total stays at 202, that will be the lowest total in a Phoenix game all year.
Tip-off is scheduled for 4:35 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
Lakers at Thunder
LVSC opened Oklahoma City (51-34 SU, 50-35 ATS) as a 1 ½-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 194 ½. As of late Friday, most spots had the Thunder as a two-point favorite with a total of 193 ½.
Los Angeles (59-26 SU, 34-48-3ATS) really needs to step up and get a ‘W’ in Game 4 at OKC. Although the Lakers still own a 2-1 advantage in this best-of-seven series, they really haven’t played a quality game yet. Phil Jackson’s club barely escaped Game 2 with a victory back at Staples Center and didn’t completely pull away from the Thunder in Game 1 until the final minute.
Oklahoma City won its first postseason home game since the franchise moved to the city Thursday night in Game 3. Trailing 2-0 in the series, Scott Brooks’ team answered the call in the city first taste of the playoffs, rallying from an early deficit to win by a 101-96 count as a 3 ½-point home ‘chalk.’
OKC’s Kevin Durant was the catalyst in Game 3, clearly playing his best game of the series to date. Durant scored 29 points, pulled down 19 rebounds, dished out four assists and played outstanding at the defensive end of the court. Russell Westbrook produced 27 points, eight boards and four assists.
In the losing effort, Kobe Bryant had a team-high 24 points for the Lakers, although he was an abysmal 10-of-29 from the field. Derek Fisher and Pau Gasol added 17 points apiece.
The ‘under’ has cashed at a 7-3 clip in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these squads.
The ‘under’ is 48-36-1 overall for the Lakers, 23-19 in their road assignments.
The Thunder have watched the ‘over’ go 44-38-3 overall, 20-20-2 its home games.
ESPN will have television coverage at 9:35 p.m. Eastern.
vegasinsider.com
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Charlotte (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)
The Magic try to extend their winning streak to nine and go up 3-0 on the Bobcats when they visit Charlotte Bobcats Arena for Game 3 of this best-of-7 Eastern Conference first-round series.
Orlando got Game 1 on Sunday 98-89, but came up just short as a 10-point home favorite, then the Magic crushed the Bobcats 92-77 in Game 2, easily cashing as a nine-point chalk and improving to 7-1 ATS during their eight-game winning streak. Orlando had all five starters score in double digits, led by Vince Carter’s 19 points. Defensively, they held the Bobcats to 43.9 percent shooting and allowed just three players to reach double figures in points.
The Magic are 25-16 on the highway this season (22-18-1 ATS) and have won eight of their last 10 on the road (7-3 ATS) The Bobcats are 31-10 at home (23-18 ATS) this season but they are a stellar 11-2 in the last 13, including 9-4 ATS. Charlotte did drop its regular-season finale at home, losing 98-89 to the Bulls as a 1½-point underdog, but it was a meaningless game to the Bobcats, but one with playoff implications for the Bulls.
This is the first trip to the postseason for this Charlotte franchise in its sixth season in existence. Meanwhile, the Magic are in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year. Last spring, they eliminated the Sixers 4-2 (2-4 ATS) in the opening round, then went on to take down the defending-champion Celtics in the conference semifinals (4-3 SU and ATS) and beat the top-seeded Cavaliers (4-2, 5-1 ATS) to reach the NBA Finals for just the second time in franchise history. However, the dream ended in five games against the Lakers (1-4 ATS).
Orlando has beaten the Bobcats nine of the last 10. The Magic are 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings, but the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six series clashes.
Orlando is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a playoff favorite, but it is on positive pointspread surges of 7-1 overall, 6-2 on the road, 48-23-1 on Saturday, 20-7 against the Eastern Conference, 19-6-1 as a favorite, 6-0 as a road favorite and 4-0 after getting two days off. Charlotte is just 2-5 in its last seven overall, 1-4-1 ATS in its last six as a ‘dog and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six on Saturday, but it is on positive ATS streaks of 7-1-1 against the Southeast Division, 6-2-1 after a straight-up loss, 7-3 after a spread-cover and 11-5 at home against teams with winning road records.
The Magic have topped the total in seven of 10 on Saturday and five of seven after a spread-cover, but they are on “under” runs of 28-13-2 as a favorite, 10-4-1 against Southeast Division teams, 8-3 after getting two days off and 3-0-1 as a playoff favorite. The Bobcats are on “over” streaks of 7-3 at home, 3-1-1 after a non-cover and 5-2 at home against teams with winning road records, but they are also on “under” streaks of 13-6-1 against the Eastern Conference, 11-3-1 against teams with winning records and 10-1-1 as an underdog.
In this series, the under has cashed in 10 of the last 14 meetings, including five of six in Charlotte, and Wednesday’s Game 2 easily stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Atlanta (2-0 SU and ATS) at Milwaukee (0-2 SU and ATS)
The Bucks return home to the Bradley Center in a must-win situation for Game 3 of this best-of-7 opening round series against the Hawks, who have won six in a row dating to the regular season.
Atlanta posted a pair of 10-point victories in Games 1 and 2, taking the opener 102-92 as an 8½-point favorite last Saturday, followed by Tuesday’s 96-86 victory as a 7½-point chalk. Joe Johnson (27 points, 6 assists), Josh Smith (21 points, 14 rebounds) and Al Horford (20 points, 10 rebounds) carried the weight in Game 2 for the Hawks, who have cashed in five straight during their current six-game win streak.
John Salmons (21 points) was the only player to crack 20 points for Milwaukee on Tuesday, which hit just 37 of 90 shots (41.1 percent) and was 8 of 14 from the free-throw line (57.1 percent), while Atlanta got to the charity stripe 20 times and made 17 (85 percent). The only edge for the Bucks came on the glass, as they outrebounded the Hawks 47-40. Both teams struggled from long distance, with Milwaukee a meager 4-for-24 on 3-pointers (16.7 percent) and Atlanta 3-for-11 (27.3 percent).
Atlanta improved to 36-7 SU at home this year with the two wins in this series, but on the road, the Hawks went just 19-22 SU (23-18 ATS) in regular-season play, averaging 98.8 ppg on 46.4 percent shooting, while allowing just a tick less at 98.0 ppg (46.5 percent). Milwaukee was 28-13 SU (24-16-1 ATS) at the Bradley Center, averaging 99.9 ppg on 43.9 percent shooting and giving up 96.6 ppg on 45.6 percent shooting. However, The Bucks lost their final two regular-season home games SU and ATS – to Boston and Atlanta, respectively – following a 12-2 SU and 9-4-1 ATS run at home.
Atlanta is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with Milwaukee, cashing in the last four in a row (3-1 SU). The chalk is on an 11-3-1 ATS tear in this rivalry, and the SU winner is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Also, in Atlanta’s last 20 playoff contests, the SU winner is a torrid 19-0-1 ATS.
Along with their current 5-0 ATS run, the Hawks are on pointspread sprees of 9-1 against the Central Division, 9-1 against winning teams, 12-2 following a SU win, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 5-1 in first-round playoff games. However, Atlanta is also in ATS ruts of 0-4-1 as a playoff pup and 5-12 as a road ‘dog of up less than five points.
The Bucks are on a 1-8-1 ATS freefall in first-round playoff games (0-4 last four) and are 1-5 ATS in their last six against Southeast Division foes. Still, they led the NBA at the betting window in the regular season (52-28-2 ATS) and remain on positive pointspread streaks of 34-15-2 overall, 9-2 after a road trip of seven or more days, 8-2 on Saturday, 20-8 after a SU loss and 20-8-2 laying points (4-1 as a home chalk).
Tuesday’s game went stayed the posted price of 188, snapping a nine-game “over” surge in this rivalry. Still, the total has gone high in the last four Milwaukee clashes between these two. Atlanta is on “over” runs of 15-4 after a SU win, 6-1 against winning teams, 6-1 as a pup (all on the road) and 5-1 after three or more days off, but the under is 6-2 in the Hawks’ last eight against the Central Division and 7-1 in their last eight as a playoff pup.
Milwaukee is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 8-1 against winning teams, 13-4-2 in first-round playoff games (5-1 last six), 5-0-1 at home, 8-1 against winning teams and 37-15-1 after three or more days off. On the flip side, the under is 10-4 in the Bucks’ last 14 against the Southeast Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
L.A. Lakers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Oklahoma City (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)
The eighth-seeded Thunder will try to even this best-of-7 Western Conference opening-round series when they take on the Lakers inside the Ford Center for Game 4.
The Thunder used a 58-46 second half to get the Game 3 victory, winning 101-96 as a 3½-point favorite in the city’s first NBA playoff game. Oklahoma City got 29 points and 19 rebounds from regular-season scoring champ Kevin Durant, and 27 points and eight rebounds from point guard Russell Westbrook. The Thunder outrebounded the Lakers 53-39, just two days after getting drilled on the boards in Game 2 in Los Angeles, 49-37. Also, Oklahoma City outscored L.A. 27-10 at the foul line.
The Lakers are 23-19 (17-24-1 ATS) on the road this season, but they’ve dropped five of six (SU and ATS) overall on the highway. Inside the Ford Center, the Thunder are now 28-14 (23-19 ATS), including an ongoing 12-3 SU run (9-6 ATS).
This is the Thunder’s first playoff series since 2005 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics and they reached the Western Conference semifinals, losing to the Spurs 4-2 (3-3 ATS), after beating Sacramento 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the opening round. The Lakers’ march to the title last season included a 4-1 (2-3 ATS) series win over the Jazz, 4-3 (SU and ATS) over the Rockets, 4-2 (3-3 ATS) over the Nuggets and then 4-1 (SU and ATS) over the Magic in the NBA Finals. L.A. has reached the postseason five straight times and 15 times in the last 16 years.
The Lakers have still won 14 of the last 16 (6-10 ATS) in this rivalry. However, the Thunder have cashed in five of the seven meetings this season, including all three games played inside the Ford Center.
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a playoff underdog, but it is on several ATS skids, including 1-5 on the road, 2-8 as a road ‘dog of less than five points, 3-13-1 after one day off and 1-5 against Western Conference rivals. Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last five after a spread cover, but it is on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 after one day off, 13-3 as a favorite of up less than five points, 20-9 against winning teams and 4-1 on Saturday.
The Lakers are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 7-3 overall, 18-7 against the Western Conference, 11-3 as an underdog, 23-7 against Northwest Division foes and 11-3 as road ‘dogs. The Thunder have topped the total in 10 of 15 as a favorite and 12 of 17 after a spread-cover, but they are on “under” runs of 4-2 as a favorite and 18-8-1 at home against teams with winning records.
In this series, the under has been the play in four of the last six in Oklahoma City, four of the last six overall and two of the first three games in this series, with Game 3 hurdling the 192-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Phoenix (2-1 SU and ATS) at Portland (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Suns look to take a commanding 3-1 advantage in this best-of-7 Western Conference first-round series when they meet the Trail Blazers for Game 4 inside the Rose Garden.
After a stunning defeat in Game 1 in Phoenix, the Suns have throttled the Blazers in the last two contests, winning 119-90 on Tuesday as an 8½-point home favorite and then rolling to a 108-89 road win in Game 3 on Thursday, cashing as a 1½-point underdog. Phoenix shot 52.9 percent from the floor Thursday and got 42 points from Jason Richardson on 13-for 19 shooting. Amare Stoudemire chipped in 20 points and Steve Nash added 13 points and 10 assists, as the Suns opened with a 34-16 first quarter and never looked back.
Phoenix is 23-19 (24-18 ATS) away from home this season and has won eight of its last 10 on the road (6-4 ATS). The Blazers are 26-16 in the Pacific Northwest (19-22-1 ATS) and they’ve still won seven of their last 10 at home (5-5 ATS).
Phoenix is back in the postseason after missing out last year, and this is the Suns’ 19th postseason appearances in the last 22 years. Portland ended a six-year playoff drought last year, but went one-and-done, falling 4-2 to the Rockets (3-3 ATS) in the opening round.
The season series is now tied 3-3 (3-2-1 ATS for Portland), but the road team has won three of the last five meetings, including two of three (SU and ATS) in this series. The chalk has cashed in 19 of the last 29 battles between these two, and the home team is riding a 6-3-1 ATS streak in the last 10.
Phoenix is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a playoff favorite of up less than five points and 0-6 ATS in its last six on Saturday, but it is on ATS surges of 27-10-1 overall, 13-5 on the road, 36-17-1 after a day off, 14-5-1 after a spread-cover and 11-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Portland is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight at home against teams with winning road records, but it is on positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 after a straight-up loss, 31-4 as a home underdog and 22-10 as a home pup of less than five points.
The Suns have topped the total in four of five as a chalk and 7-3 in playoff first-round games, but they are on “under” runs of 7-2-1 as a road underdog, 4-0-1 on the road and 9-3-1 on Saturday. The Blazers have gone over the total in four of five overall and four of five against the Western Conference, but they are on “under” streaks of 12-5 at home, 5-1 after a straight-up loss and 8-1 at home against teams with a winning road record.
In this rivalry, the over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Portland, 5-3 in the last eight overall and 2-1 in this playoff series, with Game 3 coming up just short of the 204-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
NBA Playoff RoundUp For 4/24
By Dan Bebe
Magic @ Bobcats - Orlando by 2 with a total of 184.5. This is intriguing, I will admit. We've seen Charlotte absolutely dismantled twice by the Magic, never really able to get into any kind of offense before the Magic create havoc, force a ton of outside shots, and then come back and nail a three. Sure, the Bobcats came back and backdoored Orlando in game one, but Orlando controlled game two almost the entire way before Charlotte mounted an insane 11-0 run very late in the game to make the final respectable (and give false hope to those of us foolish enough to back them...whoops). Unfortunately, I'm tempted by those dastardly Bobcats yet again. This line is pretty firm, and should draw a ton of Magic money, given how well they've played and how Orlando has shown their clear desire to stomp on weaker teams. So, I stand at a cross-roads while breaking down this game. The line, pretty low, within a bucket of a Pick, is an awfully strong indicator that the Bobcats play this game tough, but the match-ups, with Orlando firing from all over the court and stifling the Bobcats, clearly favor the more talented Magic. In my mind, I'm seeing images of the beating the Suns laid on the Blazers on Thursday night, but on paper, I'm seeing a line that couldn't possibly look any more attractive for the Magic side. No lean on the side as of yet. As far as the total is concerned, we saw one of the slowest and most painful games in recent memory in the last game, and if there isn't some value on the Over, then I'm not seeing the right game. Does that mean it's going to go Over? Not necessarily, but this line got adjusted down following up that stinker, and I just don't know if the score could be any lower. Lean to Over.
Suns @ Blazers - Phoenix by 1 with a total of 202. Well, this line is right around where the last game sat for the great majority of the day, and again, it's tough to argue with the information contained within just the line. Phoenix went into Portland and absolutely crushed the Blazers in game three. Jason Richardson went, as I recall, 8-of-12 from long range, and Phoenix was up almost 30 points by half-time. That is two straight blowouts, the second of which got Phoenix their home court back. My opinion is that Phoenix has a one-game shooting slump. Richardson isn't going to continue to hit shots like that, and it feels like Portland is going to come out firing after getting positively embarrassed on their home court. Does that mean they're going to win the game, which is what we'd need based on this short line? Maybe, maybe not, but we'll certainly get a better effort from them in game four. Tiny lean to Portland. Also, courtesy of the monster blowout, the second half was played at a snail's pace on both sides, and game three ended with just 197 points despite a 103-point first half. Portland also went just 16-of-28 from the free throw line (57%), so really, these teams left points on the table, and it nearly hit the number despite the poor FT shooting by the Blazers and the blowout-related tempo-change. I have to think this one's got a shot to go Over the total, and I think the Blazers have a nice shooting night.
Hawks @ Bucks - Atlanta by 1 with a total of 187. This is ANOTHER extremely suspect line, especially considering that the Bucks failed to cover each of the first two games, and the fact that the line immediately jumped to Milwaukee by 1 could either be sharps setting up a middle in the standard way, or it could be another strong move towards the team down 2-0. It's just so hard to look at this series and think that the Bucks have a shot, but if we step back for a moment and try to forget how overmatched Milwaukee has looked in the first two games, the Bucks were a strikingly solid home team, and the Hawks were never all that impressive on the road. Without getting into too much detail on the specific match-ups, because the Hawks have an edge at almost every spot on the floor, I happen to believe the Bucks are a proud enough team, and a good enough shooting team at home to snag a win from Atlanta. I know we've gotten into a habit of backing these teams down 2-0, but again, tough to argue with home/road splits and a strong opening line like this one. Slight lean to Milwaukee. As for the total, the two so far have been 194 and 182, and I happen to think the tempo stays about the same, and it really does come down to shooting percentage. No lean on this total.
Lakers @ Thunder - Oklahoma by 1 with a total of 193. This line has moved to 1.5 at most places (and 2 at some), so the initial move is towards the Thunder, but I fear that may be giving these underdogs a little more credit than they deserve, especially since the Thunder covered the 3.5 they were laying in game three, and then this one game out significantly lower under the expectation the Lakers would come back and play a better 4th quarter this time around. What everyone saw in game three was Scott Brooks moving Kevin Durant onto Kobe Bryant, and it did look a little like Durant's length bothered Bryant, who just kept firing up shots from outside and missing. It was almost like the Lakers were content to just shoot and hope for the best, rather than being aggressive late in the game. Pau Gasol played a strong game three, but as expected, just about everyone else was missing in action. This is one of the toughest games to call it the Playoffs so far. If you believe the Lakers have a little of that moxie, then you absolutely believe they win this game. If you believe the Thunder "figured something out", then the play is certainly on the Thunder. I have a tiny lean to LA, since I think Phil Jackson and Kobe head back to the blackboard and put the pieces together on how to attack late in the game. On the total of 193, oddsmakers just left things exactly the same, and that last game just did creep over the total. I think it goes Over again, as the shooting in this series has been atrocious. Surely someone wakes up, right?