Saturday's Afternoon Action
By Josh Jacobs
If Friday’s triple-header wasn’t enough action to appease the gambling masses then Saturday’s four-game buffet should keep us coming back for more. While the Nugget’s took the 2-0 lead in their series against the Hornets on Wednesday (108-93, covering the 6 ½-point spread), San Antonio found itself on the short end of the stick in Thursday’s date. The Spurs failed miserably to find the bottom of the bucket as Dallas rallied for the 88-67 beat down.
The overall picture that was formed on Thursday was a departure from round one’s total run. As a result, the ‘over’ is now 12-6-1 in 19 games. Click here to see first round results and 'over/under' performances.
Denver at New Orleans – 1:00 p.m. EST
Not only is Denver up 2-0 in the series but a 4-1 straight up and against the spread record in its last five meetings against New Orleans speaks volumes. Praise must be given to Chauncey Billups for running the court, donating 31 points to the Nuggets’ cause. But it was a stuff defense that held the Hornets’ Chris Paul in check (registering only 14 points on 5-of-11 of shooting).
Sportsbetting.com starts our discussion of Game 3 by opening the Hornets as 4 ½-point home favorites. A total of 199 ½ has been set as the ‘over’ is already at 2-0 in the series. This isn’t far reaching from what we’ve already seen in the totals department as Game 1 closed at 195 ½ and Game 2 at 200 ½. In-fact the last 10 head-to-head meetings have had the total set at an average of just over 200 points while hovering at just below 198 in the last six.
Denver’s success will once again hinge on field goal shooting. In Game 1’s victory, the Nuggets were 38-for-75 from the wood (51%). Denver was also able to capitalize from beyond the arc, hitting 56.2 percent of its three-pointers (9-of-16). But should we really be surprised? Witnessing a 5-2 ‘over’ in the last seven head-to-head meetings only exacerbates the argument for our totals talk.
Making the case for New Orleans, who’s been a barbaric bet after a 7-11 ATS stretch in the last 18, is a 16-5 ATS record after coming off three or more consecutive defeats. But the famed Zig Zag theory hasn’t helped backers out of this hole in the first two playoff appearances.
Are we finally going to witness the Hornets bounce back at the window or is this a squad who’s destined to fall into the brink of extinction?
Several events must take place if New Orleans wants a legitimate shot at getting back into this thing, at the very least covering the spread. Improving its transitional defense is a must. A six-point difference on the fast break in favor of Denver on Wednesday isn’t something to be ignored. And turning the ball over 17 times in Game 2 has now put the total at 34 cough ups in the series.
Ultimately, home court advantage will be the key for the Hornets to get back into the action. Up 2-0 against the Spurs in the conference semifinals of the ‘07-08 playoffs, New Orleans once again found itself clamoring to pick up a win on the road. The end result was the Hornets losing 4-3 in the best of seven. New Orleans was 1-4 ATS on the road in the playoffs last season and is now 0-5 SU in the last five postseason games away from home.
Check out our stable of NBA Handicappers before making the decision to print out those winning tickets.
San Antonio at Dallas – 4:00 p.m. EST
There’s not a lot of time to gather your facts as one-day of rest in-between the end of Game 3 and the start of Game 4 gets underway on Saturday afternoon. The Mavericks decided to turn up the heat on their intrastate rival, the Spurs, on Thursday. As part of the pair of blowout games that day (Boston-Chicago contest being the other game), Dallas not only shot 47 percent from the field but received help on the boards when it outrebounded its opponent, 51 to 41.
The best way to describe the Mavs’ home stands during recent playoff games is status quo. Since the ’05-06 season, Dallas is 11-5 SU but an average 8-8 ATS in home games during the postseason. Narrowing down the time frame, not much changes as the Mavericks are still just 3-3 ATS in their last six playoff games at American Airlines Center.
In light of the 88-67 blowout in Game 3, most books have cut Dallas down a half-point from its last outing to a current 4 ½-point favorite. An installed total of 188 is three points lower then Thursday’s closing number which ended up as an ‘under’ play. Both teams haven’t showed inspiring numbers here as San Antonio is 12-10 on the ‘over’ and Dallas 7-6 on the ‘over’ when the total has been set at 185 to 189 ½.
It’s been discussed before but with All-Star guard, Manu Ginobili out for the season the Spurs take on a different look and feel. This season alone, San Antonio is 21-14 SU without Ginobili in the lineup, but a 16-18 ATS disappointment being spread across the counter is something to take a hard look at.
Making matters worse is the Spurs 9-19 ATS record in the last 28 head-to-head meetings.
Check out these following stats:
-- San Antonio shot just 32 percent from the field (27-for-78) in Game 3, a series low for the team so far.
-- Heaving up 17 three pointers on Thursday resulted in an 11 percent stat from beyond the arc and 10 assists versus Dallas’ 20 displayed offense inferiority.
-- The Spurs were out blocked two to eight in Game 3. In relation to offense, or lack there of, San Antonio’s highest scorer was Tony Parker with a grand total of 12.
Some more numbers to contemplate are the Mavericks 106.2 PPG scored at home during the regular season versus only 97.3 PPG on the road. That trickles down to 94.5 PPG scored in Game 1 and 2 of the playoffs thus far. And then there’s Dallas’ 17-16 SU and 14-19 ATS stint this season when coming off one-day of rest. Since we’re on that topic, San Antonio has benefited from the one-day off with an unconscious 23-9 SU record followed by a 18-13 ATS record.
Closing out some more stats and trends is the Mavs’ smoking 15-1 SU run accompanied by an 11-5 ATS performance in their last 16 home games (including Thursday’s home stand). A 10-6 record on the ‘over’ is added incentive in the same 16 home games.
vegasinsider.com
Saturday Night Lights
By Brian Edwards
Bettors are loving life Saturday with the action starting early and extending to midnight Eastern (and possibly beyond). Let’s take a look at the crucial Game 3 for the Heat and Hawks, in addition to L.A’s Game 4 showdown at Utah that could make that series extremely interesting headed back to Staples.
**Hawks at Heat**
--This best-of-seven series took a dramatic turn in Game 2 on Wednesday at Philips Arena. After getting spanked 90-64 in Game 1, Miami (44-40 straight up, 41-41-2 against the spread) responded by thumping the Hawks 108-93 as a 5 ½-point underdog. The Heat hooked up money-line backers with a plus-180 return (paid $180 on $100 wagers). Dwyane Wade bounced back from a 19-point, eight-turnover debacle in Game 1 to drop 33 points and seven assists on Atlanta. Daequan Cook erupted for 20 points on 6-of-9 shooting from 3-point range, while Udonis Haslem finished with 10 points. Most importantly, Haslem buried a pair of jumpers on back-to-back possessions at crunch time after Atlanta had trimmed its deficit from 18 to five late in the final stanza.
--For Game 3 at American Airlines Arena, Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Miami as a four-point favorite with a total of 186 ½. As of Friday night, most books had the Heat as four-point ‘chalk’ with the total in the 185-186 range. The Hawks are plus-170 on the money line (risk $100 to win $170).
--Atlanta (48-36 SU, 44-39-1 ATS) goes as All-Star Joe Johnson goes and the Arkansas product wasn’t on his game in Wednesday’s defeat. He was held to 16 points and three rebounds, but his 0/4 assist-to-turnover ratio told the real story. Johnson was just 5-of-13 from the field and 5-of-9 from the charity stripe.
--Josh Smith was the catalyst for Atlanta in Game 1, scoring 17 of his 23 points in the first half. He wasn’t quite as effective in Game 2 but still played admirably, tallying 17 points, 10 rebounds, three assists, two steals and a pair of blocked shots in the box score. Mike Bibby had a team-high 18 points.
--When the series started, Atlanta was the minus-145 favorite to advance to the Eastern Conference semifinals. After winning Game 1, the Hawks became the minus-250 ‘chalk’ with the Heat available for a plus-220 return. Now the series price has Miami as the minus-125 favorite with the Hawks plus-105 on the comeback.
--“I was sold on Atlanta in this series after watching Game 1,” VegasInsider.com handicapper Bill Marzano said Friday. “Now the tendency is to be sold on the Heat coming back home, but that could be dangerous. This looks like it’s going to be a back-and-forth series that goes the distance.”
--Atlanta is not a good road team, finishing the regular season with a 16-25 SU record. However, the Hawks have been respectable for our purposes, compiling a 21-20 spread record when they hit the road.
--Eric Spoelstra’s squad has a 28-13 SU record but just a 20-20-1 ATS mark at home. The ‘over’ is 46-37-1 overall for Miami, 24-16-1 in its home assignments.
--The ‘under’ is 43-39-2 overall for the Hawks, but they have watched the ‘over’ go 20-19-2 in their road games.
--These division rivals have met six times this year with the ‘under’ going 5-1. The Hawks have won four of the six encounters, but one of those late in the regular season should be dismissed from evaluation because Wade and Haslem weren’t in uniform. These squads split a pair of meetings down in South Florida.
--TNT will have the telecast at an uncommon tip time (6:35 p.m. Eastern), so be sure to get your wagers in early.
**Lakers at Jazz**
--We have a series all of a sudden in the 1/8 matchup out West. This somewhat surprising turn of events has L.A. fans hungry for a Game 4 win. Meanwhile, Jazz enthusiasts are doing their best Gary Busey imitation (from the movie Point Break) by thinking “Utah, get me two (meat-ball sandwiches).”
--Jerry Sloan’s team will attempt to even the series in Game 4 in Salt Lake City on Saturday night at 9:05 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
--LVSC opened Los Angeles (67-18 SU, 44-41 ATS) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 211. As of Friday night, most spots had L.A. as a four-point ‘chalk’ with the total adjusted to 209 ½. The Jazz are plus-165 on the money line.
--Utah (49-36 SU, 41-44 ATS) captured an 88-86 home win in Game 3 thanks to Deron Williams’ game-winning jumper with 2.2 second remaining. Williams had struggled all night, scoring just 13 points and missing five free throws, but he came through at winning time. On the flip side, Kobe Bryant was a brick-laying machine all night long. Bryant missed a potential game winner by hitting lots of backboard and barely grazing the rim. He was 5-for-24 for the game.
--Carlos Boozer answered Sloan’s call to play nasty, producing a double-double with 23 points and 22 rebounds, including a sick left-handed dunk over Pau Gasol on a crucial possession at crunch time. Matt Harpring was huge off the bench, making 5-of-8 shots (mostly in the fourth quarter) for 11 points. Ronnie Brewer had 12 points and should get most of the credit for Bryant’s abysmal performance thanks to a tenacious defensive effort.
--Utah has lost by double-digit margins at L.A. four times this season. However, the Jazz have won both meetings in Salt Lake City. They are 2-1 both SU and ATS as home underdogs.
--Utah owns a 34-8 SU record and a 23-19 spread mark at home. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 29-13 SU and 23-19 ATS on the road.
--The 'over' is 8-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these squads.
--The ‘over’ is 44-40-1 overall for Utah, but the ‘under’ is 24-18 in its home games.
--The ‘over’ is also 44-40-1 overall for L.A., but the ‘under’ is 21-20-1 in its road assignments.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Smart move by San Antonio head coach Gregg Popovich in resting his starters, particularly Tim Duncan, for the rest of the game when the Spurs fell down by 26 at Dallas with seven-plus minutes left in Game 3. “Pop” took some criticism for the move by dummies like ESPN’s Tony Kornheiser, but he knows his players and it was clear that no comeback was in the works. Duncan should be fresh for Game 4 after playing just 15 minutes. As for gamblers backing the Spurs, of course they were left upset. But that’s why we call it gambling.
--How shocking was it to see all those empty seats in Dallas for Game 3? I know the economy is a disaster, but this is the playoffs and we’re talking about a team that’s had some of the league’s best attendance numbers since Mark Cuban came to town.
--Gamblers backing Boston on the money line in its blowout win Thursday at Chicago picked up a plus-150 payout. The C’s are plus-125 to win outright in Sunday’s Game 4 at the United Center.
vegasinsider.com
Game of the day: Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
By ALEX SMART
Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat (-4, 186)
A Flash of brilliance
After a 90-64 beat down in Game 1, the Miami Heat rose to the occasion Wednesday night, with a 108-93 win at Phillips Arena. The Hawks, who tied a franchise record Sunday for fewest points allowed in a playoff game, watched the Heat shoot 56 percent from the floor and race out to a 13-point halftime lead.
"I didn't see nothing but the basket, and it was getting bigger and bigger,” Miami guard Dwyane Wade told the media.
Wade was locked on target Wednesday and dropped 33 points on 11-of-20 shooting, hitting five of six from the stripe in the Miami victory. Heat coach, Erik Spoelstra, said Wade simply set the tone for the game.
"Before I came out to talk to the team, right before the game, there was some joking and laughing in the locker room and I heard him tell everybody to shut up and get their minds on the game,” Spoelstra told reporters.
Daequan Cook added 20 points for the Heat while Jermaine O'Neal chipped in with 19 points.
Getting away early
If Saturday’s Game 3 emulates the first two contests in this series, then expect a close matchup through the first quarter and a winner by halftime. Miami's 13-point lead at the midway point Wednesday was not quite the 20-point lead Atlanta possessed Sunday, but each team was able to sustain its lead en route to playoff victories.
Hawks high-flying forward Josh Smith, who tallied 23 points in Game 1, called his team selfish on offense Wednesday night.
"We didn't start the game with a sense of urgency, like the start of the first game," Smith told the press. "We didn't play together. Put those two negatives together, and that's what caused us to lose."
To add insult to injury, Atlanta's mascot Spirit the Hawk delayed the start of the game. The actual bird, which flies down from the rafters during pre-game introductions, decided it would hang out on top of the backboard during the shoot around, rather than return to its handler. Spirit did finally fly to its cage and no one was harmed or injured during his flight. But you could literally say that this game flew away from Atlanta, even before it started.
Complete-team effort
While it's obvious that each team's starting five is responsible for the vast majority of the scoring, the output coming from benches has helped in deciding a winner.
Game 1’s margin was clearly out of hand, but the bench scoring was almost even. Atlanta's bench chipped in 18 points to Miami's 17. In Game 2, Miami received a 37-point outburst from its reserves. Without it, Atlanta could be headed to South Beach up 2-0.
Hawks coach Mike Woodson was quick to acknowledge Wade's 33-point effort on Wednesday, but did not show the same urgency in attributing Miami's win to solely No. 3.
"I don't think that was the killer factor," Woodson told reporters. "We let their bench play a major role."
Heating up
Atlanta enters American Airlines Arena with a 3-7 record against the spread in its last 10 contests. Conversely, the hometown Heat flip flop the Hawks record. Miami is 7-3 ATS in its last 10, as well as 7-3 ATS in its last ten games at AAA.
DENVER (56 - 28) at NEW ORLEANS (49 - 35)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 69-55 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 51-38 ATS (+9.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in home games when playing with 2 days rest since 1996.
NEW ORLEANS is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 37-22 ATS (+12.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 47-36 ATS (+7.4 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 36-47 ATS (-15.7 Units) in all games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) against Northwest division opponents this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-29 ATS (-12.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 7-6 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 7-6 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO (55 - 30) at DALLAS (52 - 33)
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 168-130 ATS (+25.0 Units) vs. division opponents since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 91-62 ATS (+22.8 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 141-105 ATS (+25.5 Units) after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 223-180 ATS (+25.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 27-16 ATS (+9.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.
DALLAS is 23-35 ATS (-15.5 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 9-6 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 8-7 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA (48 - 36) at MIAMI (44 - 40)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 14-26 ATS (-14.6 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 45-37 ATS (+4.3 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 74-90 ATS (-25.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 36-53 ATS (-22.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 33-48 ATS (-19.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in home games in April games since 1996.
MIAMI is 62-89 ATS (-35.9 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1996.
MIAMI is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 9-5 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 7-7 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
10 of 14 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS (67 - 18) at UTAH (49 - 36)
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 52-34 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 100-84 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 53-36 ATS (+13.4 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 205 and 209.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 46-33 ATS (+9.7 Units) second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 54-35 ATS (+15.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 37-16 ATS (+19.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
UTAH is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
UTAH is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 11-7 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 13-6 straight up against UTAH over the last 3 seasons
14 of 19 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Denver at New Orleans
Denver:
16-7 Under as an underdog
50-82 ATS off BB ATS wins
New Orleans:
20-5 ATS at home revenging same season loss
18-6 ATS off DD road loss
San Antonio at Dallas
San Antonio:
8-1 ATS Away playing with revenge
21-8 Under when trailing in a playoff series
Dallas:
16-25 ATS off ATS win
23-35 ATS off DD win
Atlanta at Miami
Atlanta:
14-6 ATS revenging DD loss
16-6 ATS off BB home games
Miami:
2-11 ATS off SU win as road underdog
5-18 ATS if road underdog L2 games
LA Lakers at Utah
LA Lakers:
24-43 ATS off BB ATS losses
14-5 Over vs. Utah
Utah:
20-6 Over as an underdog
8-1 Over in April
DENVER vs. NEW ORLEANS
Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games at home
SAN ANTONIO vs. DALLAS
San Antonio is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
ATLANTA vs. MIAMI
Atlanta is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Miami is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Miami is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Atlanta
LA LAKERS vs. UTAH
LA Lakers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the LA Lakers last 8 games
Utah is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Utah is 6-11-1 ATS in their last 18 games when playing LA Lakers
Tips and Trends
Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Hornets
Nuggets: The Nuggets have won each of the first two games by double digits. "Not many guys get fired up to cover Paul", coach George Karl said. "Dahntay gets fired up to cover him, A.C. gets fired up to cover him and Chauncey wants his piece of him, too. So I've got three guys that want to cover him, rather than have that fear of covering him. And they know they all don't have to play 35 minutes on him. They're only going to play 15 or 20." Karl also noted that he has "three big guys that cover the pick-and-rolls pretty first-class," referring to Kenyon Martin, Nene and Chris Andersen.
The Nuggets are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 playoff games as an underdog.
The Nuggets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Key Injuries - C Nene (hand) is PROBABLE.
PROJECTED SCORE: 95
Hornets (-4.5, O/U 198): The Hornets have had 34 turnovers through the first two games, which only enhances Denver's ability to pile up fast-break points. The Hornets may wish they could pick up the pace, something that suits Paul's up-tempo style. The problem, coach Byron Scott said, is that the Hornets do not have enough offensive depth to play that way with a team like Denver for an entire game. The reserves have contributed little, so Scott said he will have to limit the number of players he uses on Saturday to seven or eight.That means the Hornets likely will have to slow the tempo and try to win with defense.
The Hornets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite.
The Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Key Injuries - C Tyson Chandler (ankle) is QUESTIONABLE
PROJECTED SCORE: 99 (UNDER - Total Play of the Day)
Atlanta at Miami Preview
By Sportspic.com
Dwyane Wade is back!
After a dismal Game One, Dwyane Wade and the Miami Heat responded by whipping the Hawks 108-93 in Game Two. The sportsbooks didn’t trust the Heat as they were 5.5-point underdogs. That was the Hawks first home playoff loss in two years as they swept the Celtics 3-0 in round one last year.
Tonight, it’s Game 3 as the series shifts to Miami. The Heat now have home court advantage and the Sportsbooks look for them to keep it as they are a 4-point favorite. There has been a major move on the total as it opened at 188 points and has been bet down to 185 points.
The first game went way under the 187 point total as the two teams combined to score only 154 points. Miami’s offense didn’t show up as they scored just 64 points. In the last game, there was no shortage of scoring as the two teams combined to score 201 points, going way over the low 184 point over/under line.
These two teams played two games down here in Miami this season. In the first meeting of the season, Atlanta upset the two-point favored Heat, 87-73. In the second contest Miami got revenge beating up the Hawks 95-79, easily covering as 3-point favorites. Over the last 14 meetings here in Miami, the Heat are 12-2 straight up and 11-3 against the number vs. Atlanta.
Will the Hawks bounce back, or will the Heat’s home success against this team continue? Atlanta has a couple of strong trends in their favor as Miami is an awful 6-18 against the betting line off a straight up win as an underdog, and are 1-9 against the number at home after hitting 50% or more of their 3-point shots in their previous game (Miami hit 15 of 26 for 58% in Game 2)
If you’re a totals player, there are some very strong under situations that Atlanta falls into. The Hawks are 11-1 under the total over the last two seasons after losing by 10 or more points at home, and are 19-6 under the number on the road after allowing an opponent to shoot 55% or better from the field (Miami hit 55.6% in the last game).
Blade, excuse me for butting in this thread, but is it appropriate for me to post my own plays here? i'm not a service at all. thanks for the time
CG Betting Consultants
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Under 9
Today in the heated rivalry between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox, we have 2 of the best pitchers going head to head. For the Yankees (R) Burnett gets the start. He is 2-0 with a 3.20 ERA. The Red Sox will start (R) Beckett, 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA. UNDER is 5-0 in Becketts last 5 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. UNDER is 4-1-1 in Becketts last 6 starts with the total set at 9 to 10 1/2. UNDER is 5-2-1 in Becketts last 8 starts as a favorite. Fenway Park is a hitters park, but it won't matter today when these two pitchers face off, it will be a low scoring game. Therefore we are playing the UNDER.
Mr. A
New Orleans Hornets -4½
Dallas Mavericks -4½
Miami Heat -4
Utah Jazz +4½
Washington Nationals at New York Mets
New York Mets -185
Philadelphia Phillies at Florida Marlins
Florida Marlins -145
Go ahead and make your own thread if you like msu and feel free to post in any thread you like, this thread is more or less a information thread to make it a bit easier to find stats trends etc
Gina
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
Look for the Dallas Mavericks to continue playing excellent defense. Dallas will have home advantage tonight in Game 4 and if Dirk Nowitzky and Josh Howard perform as they did in Game 3, the Spurs will be in for an unpleasant night. The Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games and the home team in this series is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Dallas Mavericks -4½
Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros
Brewers' Jeff Suppan pitched great last Sunday in a 4-2 win against the Mets, but has had difficulties verus the Astros, just 2-7 with a 5.34 ERA in his career against Houston and the Brewers are 2-7 in the right-handers' last 9 starts. Houston' Southpaw Mike Hampton is 4-2 with a 2.87 ERA. in 11 career games against Milwaukee, but didn't face them last season. The Astros are 16-5 in Hampton's last 21 home starts. Go with the Astros this evening at Minute Maid Park.
Houston Astros -130
Greg Shaker
Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
Play: WhiteSox
I am playing this game at 1/2 Moneyline and 1/2 Runline of +125. That gives us a push on a 1 run win and less of a stake in this one as well, with an opportunity to produce 2.5 Units of Profit. The Sox were hammered last night and the kind of game that leaves a print in your brain. Today they put Buehrle on the mound and he has been deadly verses the Jays for a very long time. He is throwing better this year in the early going and he has always been streaky. Good numbers across the board for this lefty. Burres has been just soso in Triple A and he was a Gas Can last year. I think the Sox bounceback in this one.
King Creole
NOH -5 vs DEN
There's a tremendous but SIMPLE ATS tendency that has occurred in GAME THREE of any NBA Playoff series over the years. And since we have TWO qualifiers going on Saturday, it's definitely worth a mention. Since our selection on the DETROIT PISTONS last night did not pan out.... KING CREOLE will reveal this System 'on the house'!
41-15-3 this decade: All Playoff GAME THREE teams playing off a DOUBLE-DIGIT SU loss. That's the case on Saturday for the NEW ORLEANS HORNETS and the ATLANTA HAWKS. So far this season, we cashed a WINNER on Thursday in this simple System on the UTAH JAZZ.
Within that 73% ATS System, here's the MOST profitable 'Tighteners':
Pure UNDERDOGS (like ATLANTA) have gone 19-4-1 ATS (83%). ROAD dogs (like ATLANTA) have gone a PERFECT 3-0-1 ATS.
Larger FAVORITES of > 3 points (like the HORNETS) have gone 18-4-1 ATS (82%).... and 8-1 ATS in the last two seasons.
In the FIRST ROUND, Underdogs of LESS than 5 points (HAWKS) have gone an almost-PERFECT 12-1 ATS.
Team who come in losing EACH of their first TWO games of a series (HORNETS) have gone 21-6-2 ATS versus non-division competition... with favorites of 2 > pts going 13-2-1 ATS (HORNETS).