Oklahoma City (46-28, 44-30 ATS) at Dallas (50-26, 32-43-1 ATS)
The Thunder will attempt to complete a sweep of their three-game road trip when they travel to American Airlines Center to face the Mavericks.
Oklahoma City went to the East Coast for the first two games of this trip, hammering Philadelphia 111-93 as a 6½-point favorite Tuesday, then coming back on no rest Wednesday to beat Boston 109-104 as a three-point underdog. The Thunder have won four of their last five SU and ATS, outscoring foes by more than 10 ppg on average, scoring 104.0 ppg on stout 50.5 percent shooting and allowing 93.6 ppg on 46.2 percent shooting.
Dallas saw its three-game SU and ATS winning streak snapped Thursday night, getting blasted at home by Orlando 97-82 as a 2½-point pup. The Mavericks, who are 26-12 SU at home this year but just 9-28-1 ATS, average 101.4 ppg and give up 99.7 at American Airlines Center, getting outshot in those games by a slim 46.1 percent-45.8 percent margin.
Oklahoma City has cashed in seven of the last eight meetings in this rivalry (3-5 SU), including a 99-86 home victory laying 4½ points in the most recent contest, on Feb. 16. The Thunder are 4-0-1 ATS on their last five trips to the Big D, the road team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the underdog is on a 6-2-1 ATS push.
The Thunder have the NBA’s third-best spread-covering record and are on ATS rolls of 4-1 overall, 9-2 after a two-day break, 9-3 against teams with a winning percentage above .600, 6-2 in the Western Conference and 5-2 on the road. The Mavericks have cashed in four of their last five against the West and are on an 11-3 ATS run following a double-digit home loss, but they also shoulder ATS dives of 2-9 against the Northwest Division, 3-9 on Saturday, 8-17-1 after a day off and 16-34-1 at home.
Oklahoma City is on “over” stretches of 7-3-1 overall, 5-1 on the road, 12-3 following a SU win and 8-3 after a spread-cover, though the under is 6-2 in its last eight against winning teams. Dallas is on “over” runs of 5-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 6-1 after a double-digit home loss, 5-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in the West, but the total has gone high in 16 of the Mavs’ last 22 Saturday starts.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six of the last eight meetings overall, but the over is 5-2 in the last seven contests in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Phoenix (50-26, 44-31-1 ATS) at Milwaukee (41-34, 48-26-1 ATS)
The surging Suns go for a sweep of their five-game road swing when they visit the Bradley Center to take on the Bucks.
Phoenix has won 10 in a row SU, going 7-2-1 ATS in that stretch while moving into a tie for second in the Western Conference playoff chase. On Friday, the Suns rolled past Detroit 109-94 as a nine-point road favorite. Phoenix has been scoring at a prodigious rate throughout the 10-game run, clearing 100 points nine times, including eight starts of 110 ppg or more and four of 120 or more, though the Suns have also allowed 104.3 ppg.
Milwaukee has lost two in a row and four of its last six, but has also beat the spread in each of its last four starts, following a three-game ATS skid. The Bucks were dealt an 87-86 overtime loss at Charlotte last night, but got the cover as a 3½-point pup. Milwaukee is averaging a modest 97.7 ppg (22nd), but has the league’s seventh-best scoring defense, allowing 96.2 ppg.
Phoenix has claimed the last seven meetings in this rivalry (3-4 ATS, all as a chalk), including both contests this season. Most recently, the Suns won 105-101 at home on Jan. 11, but fell short as a 9½-point favorite. Phoenix is 6-2-1 ATS on its last seven trips to Milwaukee, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, and the ‘dog is on an 11-4-1 ATS run.
The Suns have failed to cover in five straight Saturday games and are in a 2-6 ATS rut against the Central Division, but they sport several positive ATS streaks, including 21-7-1 overall, 4-0 against the East, 11-3 in roadies, 15-5-1 after a spread-cover, 4-1 after a SU win and 10-4-1 against winning teams.
The Bucks are on nothing but positive pointspread sprees, including 38-17-1 overall, 7-0 on Saturday, 4-0 against the West, 9-2-1 against winning teams, 16-5 going on no rest and 18-6 after a SU loss.
The over is on stretches of 6-2 in Phoenix’s last eight road games, 10-2 in Milwaukee’s last 12 against winning teams and 38-18 in the Bucks’ last 56 outings against the Western Conference. Also, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in 10 of the last 12 meetings overall and four of the last five in Milwaukee. However, the Suns are on “under” streaks of 9-3 on Saturday and 16-7-1 against the Eastern Conference, and the Bucks are on “under” surges of 6-0 on Saturday, 12-5 at home and 7-3 going on no rest.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE
NBA RoundUp For 4/3
By Dan Bebe
Raptors @ Sixers - This line is OFF. Toronto is going to be fighting for their lives, still, with Chicago on the docket soon enough, and the playoffs in their hands. Lean to Toronto, despite what's sure to be an unpleasant line, and I happen to think Toronto doesn't score quite as well on the road, and this one sneaks Under.
Pistons @ Hawks - This line is OFF. This isn't going to be an easy spot for Atlanta, but it's going to be an even tougher spot for Detroit. This line is going to be huge, but I lean Atlanta, and I lean Over, as I foresee the Hawks putting up well over 100 points in a game of poor defense.
Hornets @ Nets - New Orleans by 2 with a total of 201. I have very few feelings about this side in a game where neither team cares. No lean on the side. The total intrigues me, if only because I'm curious what tempo these teams want to play. I recommend watching this game, see how the two teams want to play, then make a wager on the next one. No lean on the total.
Heat @ Wolves - This line is OFF. Miami needed OT to beat Indiana, so this line is going to come out lower than most expect. Don't be immediately suckered into taking the Miami side, the better value is in the total. No lean on the side. Totals lean to the Under, as Miami tries even harder to slow things down on back-to-back, and what's more, they generally don't shoot as well.
Bobcats @ Bulls - Chicago by 2.5 with a total of 187. The Bobcats are coming off OT, so this line might move to Chicago by 4. Be careful, the Bobcats are much better on back-to-back. I happen to think this is going to be a hard-fought game, and lean slightly to the Bulls, but your best bet is middling this bad boy. I lean Under on the total - nothing is going to come easy in this one, despite both teams being tired.
Thunder @ Mavericks - Dallas by 3 with a total of 195.5. We know Dallas struggles at home, and this one is going to come down to who can get a stop. I lean just slightly to Dallas, since I think this line is deflated because of Oklahoma's hot run and Dallas's tough loss to Orlando, but I also think we'll get a game with a better defensive effort from both clubs. I lean Under.
Suns @ Bucks - Milwaukee by 2.5 with a total of 209.5. This spread is going down, since Milwaukee played an OT game in Charlotte last night. But with a game of two teams on back-to-back, I have to lean to the club with the powerhouse fatigue record, and that's Milwaukee. On the total, if the Bucks are dictating this thing, it isn't going to be quick - lean to the Under.
Clippers @ Nuggets - Denver by 14 with a total of 207.5. I don't think I can bet a game with a spread of 14 unless one team is drinking turpentine before the game. No lean on the side. Denver is going to want to get out and beat the Clippers with superior talent and skill, so no reason to slow it down and make it ugly. Still, can the Clippers score? Doubt it. Slight lean Under.
Blazers @ Kings - Portland by 6 with a total of 194.5. Not a ton of situational value here, with both teams coming off losses, but this line is ultra-high. Kings are a better team at home than on the road, and while I'd love to back the team with more to play for, this line is way too high for my taste. Tiny, and I mean TINY lean to Sacramento. The total looks somewhat low, so I have an early taste for the Over, but I need to see where the money comes.
Trend Report - Saturday
By Ed Meyer
Suns at Bucks – The Suns are 9-0 ATS (11.6 ppg) since March 28, 2003 after a road win when their opponent is off an overtime game. The Suns are 0-7 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since February 05, 1998 when they are on the road after at least four home wins. The Bucks are 7-0 ATS (8.5 ppg) since December 16, 2009 off an overtime game.
Bobcats at Bulls – The League is 7-0-1 ATS (5.6 ppg) since December 06, 2008 on the road with at most one day of rest after a home win in which they had at least 10 shots blocked. The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since December 16, 2008 with no rest after a game in which they shot less than 40% from the field. The Bulls are 10-0 ATS (10.7 ppg) since December 31, 2007 with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which they allowed less than 40% from the field.
Pistons at Hawks – The Pistons are 0-8-1 ATS (-4.9 ppg) since November 06, 1999 on the road after a double digit home loss in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line. The Hawks are 8-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since December 10, 2008 with at most one day of rest after a road loss in which they committed fewer than ten turnovers.
Trailblazers at Kings – The Trailblazers are 0-8 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since February 06, 2009 with at most one day of rest off a loss that broke at least a three-game winning streak. The Trailblazers are 7-0-1 ATS (10.4 ppg) since April 11, 2009 and when facing a team they beat in their previous two match-ups of the season. The Kings are 7-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since December 26, 1995 as a dog with two or more days of rest after a loss in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.
Thunder at Mavericks – The Mavericks are 9-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since December 09, 2006 with at most one day of rest after a double digit loss in which they had fewer than fifteen assists. The Thunder are 6-0 ATS (14.6 ppg) since March 31, 2009 as a dog when they are playing in at least their third straight road game.
Hornets at Nets – The Hornets are 9-0 ATS (4.2 ppg) since December 22, 2004 with no rest after a road loss in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight. The League is 0-7 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since March 17, 2008 as a road favorite with no rest after a game on the road after a loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent. The Nets are 0-9 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since April 04, 2009 as a dog after a game at home in which they had an assist to turnover ratio of at least two.
Clippers at Nuggets – The Clippers are 0-8 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since April 12, 2002 with two or more days of rest after a road loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. The League is 9-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since May 02, 2005 at home with at most one day of rest after a double digit home win in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them.
Raptors at 76ers – The Raptors are 0-6 ATS (-5.0 ppg) since March 21, 2008 after a game at home in which they had five or fewer offensive rebounds. The Sixers are 7-0 ATS (5.0 ppg) since January 05, 2007 with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which they committed at least twenty turnovers. The 76ers are 7-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since November 05, 1996 as a home dog with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot less than 60% from the free-throw line.
Heat at Timberwolves – The Heat are 8-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since February 15, 2003 on the road with at most one day of rest after a game on the road in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted. The Heat are 0-6 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since March 08, 2006 as a favorite off an overtime game on the road. The Timberwolves are 0-10 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since February 24, 2008 at home after a game at home in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average.