Game of the day: Celtics at Cavaliers Betting Preview
By SEAN MURPHY
Rivalry renewed
This is the second round series that everyone wanted to see becuase there’s no love lost between the Celtics and Cavaliers.
“We know that in order for each team to reach their goal - to win a championship - they’ve got to go through one of us,” said Celtics center Kendrick Perkins. “So a lot of noise talking when we play, a lot of guys don’t like each other.’’
To drive that point home, nine technical fouls were handed out in their four regular season matchups this year. Obviously the intensity level is going to be even higher in this series.
They last met in the playoffs two years ago. The Celtics were the heavily favored team that time around, but needed seven games to oust the Cavs. They went on to win the NBA title.
The home team won every game in that series, and the Cavs went 6-1 ATS.
Since then, they’ve split eight regular season meetings, with the outright winner also cashing ATS in seven of those eight games. The Cavs hold a slim 5-3 ATS edge over that span.
Elbow room
Lebron James’ ailing elbow is the biggest storyline entering this series.
He suffered an elbow strain and bone bruise in the Cavs series-clinching win over the Bulls on Tuesday.
The minor injury won’t keep James out of the lineup in Game 1, but could hamper his shooting ability.
James practiced on Thursday, but wasn’t involved in any full contact drills. He took most of his shots with his left hand so it’s obvious that he’s not close to full strength right now.
"If I am limited during the game, then I'll be smart about it," James said. "That's what I was able to do in Game 5 against the Bulls. I was very limited in shooting long-range shots, so I started going to the hole in the fourth quarter."
The Celtics aren’t buying it.
Head coach Doc Rivers told ESPN.com, "I'll tell you what, if he goes three or four games and shoots left-handed only, then I'll believe he's hurt. Other than that, we'll be ready for the LeBron we've seen all playoffs."
Happy dogs
The Boston Celtics don’t mind being underdogs this time around.
They’re listed as nearly 4-1 dogs to win this series at most sportsbooks.
It’s a situation Paul Pierce feels most comfortable in.
He had this to say to the Boston Globe on Thursday, “I feel like that’s how it’s been for me individually. My whole career, I definitely thrive in being in that situation, just like I think a lot of people in here thrive being in that situation.”
Pierce added, “We’ll see how it turns out. It’s no pressure on us."
The Celtics are an even 10-10-2 ATS in 22 games in the underdog role this season. They won outright as 5-point dogs in Cleveland on the opening night of the regular season, but weren’t so fortunate on their next trip, dropping a 104-93 decision at Quicken Loans Arena in mid-March.
The X-factor
The play of Shaquille O’Neal might be the key to Cavs success in this series.
He had an up and down opening round against the Bulls, but stepped up when it counted, in Tuesday’s series-clinching win. Shaq scored 14 points to go along with eight rebounds, three assists and a block in 26 minutes of action.
O’Neal obviously felt good after that well-rounded performance, "I just wanted to be more aggressive and take my time and really go up strong. Hands are feeling good. Thumbs are pretty good."
Head coach Mike Brown added, "He was a big-time presence for us, not only offensively but defensively, too. I thought his ability to not necessarily score all the time, even though he was 7-for-9 from the floor, but to get us in the bonus.”
If he’s going to continue to log a lot of minutes, the Cavs are going to need production from him at both ends of the floor against the Celtics.
Line moves
The early money was on the Cavs, bumping them from 7 to 7.5-point favorites.
But most consensus reports now indicate that the Celtics are getting plenty of love from the betting public. That money could force the line back to 7 prior to tipoff on Saturday.
The total has held steady since opening at 191.5 at most offshore books.
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston (4-1 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (4-1, 2-3 ATS)
The Cavaliers, the top overall seed in the playoffs, resume their quest for LeBron James’ first championship when they face the fourth-seeded Celtics in Game 1 of the conference semifinals at Quicken Loans Arena.
Cleveland beat the eighth-seeded Bulls in five games in the first round, but after winning and covering in Game 1, the Cavs went just 1-3 ATS the rest of the series. They finished off Chicago on Tuesday with a 96-94 victory, but fell way short as a 12½-point home favorite. One game after notching a triple-double, James had a double-double of 19 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists in the clincher. However, he fell well below his playoff average of 31.8 ppg, and he’s dealing with a right elbow injury that forced him to shoot a left-handed free throw (which he missed) in the closing seconds of the Game 5 win.
Antawn Jamison led Cleveland with 25 points in Tuesday’s victory, going 8 of 14 from the floor, including 3 of 7 from three-point range. The Cavs shot a solid 49.1 percent in the series and limited the Bulls to 43.9 percent.
Boston also advanced in five games and has been off since Tuesday, when it dropped Miami 96-86 as a seven-point home chalk. Sharpshooter Ray Allen led the Celtics with 24 points in the deciding game, knocking down 5 of 6 from long distance in the process. Paul Pierce added 21 points, and Rajon Rondo had 16 points and a dozen assists. Doc Rivers’ troops shot 47.4 percent in the first round, while holding Miami to 43.5 percent.
Boston is 27-16 on the highway (22-20-1 ATS) this year – including 1-1 SU and ATS in Miami – putting up 98.0 ppg on 47.7 percent shooting and allowing 94.4 ppg on 44.4 percent shooting. Cleveland is 38-6 SU at home this year, including taking all three home contests against Chicago. However, the Cavs are just 18-26 ATS at the Q, outscoring visitors by an average of about nine ppg (103.1-94.3), while outshooting visitors by a 49.6 percent to 43.9 percent margin.
In the last meeting between these rivals, Boston nearly squandered a 22-point lead, holding on to win a 117-113 shootout as a 1½-point home pup on April 4, overcoming a 42-point effort from James, who reached that number despite going 0-for-9 from beyond the arc. Despite the win and cover, the Celtics are still 4-10 ATS in their last 14 clashes with the Cleveland. In fact, the Cavs are 18-7-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings, including a 6-1 ATS roll in the last seven meetings at the Q.
These teams split four meetings this year, with the SU winner cashing each time, and each squad netted a home win and a road win. The host (and favorite) are 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups. Boston and Cleveland also met in the second round of the playoffs two years ago, with the C’s taking the series in seven games on their way to the title, but the Cavs went 6-1 ATS, covering the last five games.
The Cavaliers are on ATS purges of 4-11 overall (2-6 last eight), 0-6 against winning teams, 1-7 after a SU win, 6-14 following a non-cover and 3-9 as a favorite. However, they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 17-5-1 in second-round playoff games, 17-7-1 as a playoff chalk and 11-5 after three or more days’ rest.
Along with their 4-1 ATS run in the first round, the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 5-1 on Saturday, 9-3-1 as a postseason pup, 14-6 catching five to 10½ points and 23-10 as a road ‘dog of that same price. That said, Boston shoulders negative ATS trends of 1-5 after a break of three or more days, 2-7 after a SU win, 4-13 in second-round contests and 6-16-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The under is 17-5 in Cleveland’s last 22 conference semifinal contests, but the Cavs are otherwise on a bundle of “over” surges, including 10-1 against Atlantic Division foes, 7-2 as a playoff favorite, 5-0 as a playoff chalk of five to 10½ points and 4-1 after a SU win. Likewise, Boston is on “over” sprees of 10-4 overall, 4-1 on the road, 6-1 against the Central Division, 6-1 as a pup, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win and 5-2 as a playoff ‘dog, though the under has been the play in the Celts’ last four second-round games.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total cleared the posted price in all four meetings this season and is 5-1 in the last six contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER
Tips and Trends
Boston Celtics at Cleveland Cavaliers
Celtics: There might not be a more confident postseason team than the Boston Celtics. This veteran group expects greatness, and they know they have one more opportunity to earn an NBA title this year. Boston despises Cleveland, so this series will be must see TV. The Celtics split their season series with the Cavaliers, 2-2 both SU and ATS this year. Boston won in Cleveland on opening night this season, 95-89 as 5 point underdogs. The Celtics easily dispatched of the Heat in the 1st Round, winning the series 4-1 both SU and ATS. The Celtics offense was sharp against the Heat, and they will look to continue that form against the Celtics. All 4 games against the Cavaliers this season went Over the posted total. Boston is 54-33 SU and 37-48-2 ATS overall this season. The Celtics were a great road team this season, going 27-16 SU and 22-20-1 ATS. Boston is 9-10 ATS as the listed underdog this year. 4 of the 5 Celtics starters are averaging more than 14 PPG, led by F Paul Pierce. Pierce is averaging 19.6 PPG, while teammate G Ray Allen is averaging 19.4 PPG during the playoffs.
Celtics are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games as an underdog.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 88
Cavaliers (-7, O/U 191): Cleveland gets to meet their bitter rival in the Conference Semi-Finals for the 2nd time in 3 years. Everyone involved with the Cavaliers organization is excited to play Boston. These two teams simply don't like each other, as they've had numerous tussles through the years. F LeBron James will be accepting his league MVP award tonight, yet another example of how electric the atmosphere will be tonight. The Cavaliers are the odds on favorite to win the Championship, as they finished the season with the overall best record in the NBA. Cleveland is 65-22 SU and 40-46-1 ATS overall this season. The Cavaliers are 38-6 SU and 18-25-1 ATS in home games this season. Cleveland is an impressive 4-1 ATS as a home favorite between 6.5 and 9 PTS this year. James is averaging nearly 32 PPG this postseason, while shooting 56.7% from the field. F Antawn Jamison is enjoying his time with the Cavaliers this postseason, averaging 19.7 PPG. PG Mo Williams is the only other Cavaliers player averaging double figures in the playoffs, averaging 15.6 PPG.
Cavs are 4-0 ATS last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 7-2 last 9 playoff games as a favorite.
Key Injuries - F LeBron James (elbow) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 94 (UNDER - Total of the Day)