Game 3, Magic at Celtics
By Chris David
Can the Magic overcome a 0-2 deficit to the Celtics?
From a history perspective, it’s not on Orlando’s side. Only 14 teams have ever come back to win a best-of-seven playoff battle after losing the first two games. And, only three times in postseason play has a club battled back after losing the first two home games in a best-of-seven series. The most recent team to pull off that feat was Dallas, who defeated Houston in the first round of the 2005 playoffs.
Since no team in NBA history has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit, Game 3 on Saturday becomes even bigger for Orlando, or what most would define as a must-win spot.
After ripping off eight straight playoff victories (7-1 against the spread) over the Bobcats and Hawks in the first two rounds, Stan Van Gundy’s team has finally been punched in the mouth and the counter-punches came too little and too late, especially in Game 2 on Tuesday.
Boston led 53-51 at the break and 78-70 after three quarters before the fun began. The eight-point gap was quickly trimmed in the final stanza and Orlando actually took the lead (90-89) on a Vince Carter jumper with less than four minutes on the clock. However, that’s as close as the Magic got and Boston’s head coach Doc Rivers summed it us best. “It was a great game intensity-wise, a game of runs. They brought the fight to us in a lot of ways, and I thought we withstood the hits.”
Along with taking Orlando’s best shots, Boston got two key jumpers from Kevin Garnettt and Rajon Rondo to take the lead. The Magic trailed 95-92 with a half-minute left and Carter missed two crucial free throws that could’ve cut the lead to one. Boston ran the clock down and missed its last shot but Orlando’s late heave to force overtime came up short. No matter the team and talent on the court, most would agree that it’s hard to win any game if you only score two points in the final four minutes.
A lot of factors can be attributed to the losses in the Magic Kingdom, but the biggest issue for Orlando in this series has been its shooting, which connected on 41 percent in Game 1 and even worse, 39 percent, in Game 2. The team has made a total of 12 shots from 3-point land in the first two losses, after hitting 89 bombs in the first eight wins.
VegasInsider.com hoops expert Brian Edwards believes you can point to the finger to one specific player on the outside. He said, “Let’s put out an APB for Rashard Lewis, who is 4-for-16 from the field in this series and hasn’t scored in double figures yet. Lewis has got to get going in Boston, sooner than later.”
Lewis isn’t a newbie to the playoffs, experiencing Orlando’s deep run last year. And he put up double-figures in seven of the first eight postseason games this year. Another solid role player, Matt Barnes, has also come up short for the Magic in this series although he’s had back issues. Barnes has put up eight total points in the two losses and he’s been missing at the end of the games on the defensive end, which could be due to the back spasms.
Despite the shooting woes, Edwards doesn’t believe that Orlando has packed it in yet. “I don’t think this series is over. Orlando is very capable of winning on the road, as evidenced by its 29-16 straight up record. The Magic just have to make life more difficult for Rajon Rondo and as we know, that’s no easy task. His numbers don’t even reflect the type of dominant impact he’s having, and you can’t underestimate how much easier he makes life for the veterans – Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. Those guys get to conserve so much energy with Rondo doing all the work off the dribble.”
“But this is the playoffs, Rondo needs to get put on the deck when he comes into the lane hard. Look for a ‘purpose foul’ on Rondo early in Game 3 and if we don’t see one, that’s on Stan Van Gundy.”
Orlando did get a boost from Dwight Howawrd (30 points) in Game 2 but Jameer Nelson (9 points) had trouble offensively and defensively against Rondo (25 point, eight assists). Orlando’s bench outperformed Boston 26-18 behind 16 points from J.J. Redick. While that effort is great and appreciated, does Van Gundy really want the former Duke standout to be taking nine shots in a game, which was more than Lewis?
Most books opened Boston as a 2 ½-point favorite for Saturday and the number has since moved to 3 ½ at most shops, and has even spiked to 4 at a couple Las Vegas shops. Betting on the underdog in this head-to-head matchup has been a solid investment. The pup has covered seven straight encounters and has won outright six times over that span. Instead of taking the 3-4 points, the smart yet riskier play would be the Magic on the money-line (+150).
Along with the ‘dog streak, the ‘under’ has been just as golden when this pair collides. The ‘under’ has gone 9-1 in the last 10, including the first two in this series. Total players following Game 2 understand that the ‘over’ was the right side. Unfortunately, a 39-point fourth quarter and a couple missed free throws stifled players who took ‘over’ 188 ½. The number has been pushed up to 190 for Game 3.
Boston has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 in its six home playoff games and only Game 3 (124-95) in the conference semifinals against Cleveland was a legitimate shootout. The Magic have watched the total go 2-2 in their four road playoffs games, despite their offense averaging 98 PPG against the Bobcats and Hawks.
Gamblers looking at an overpowering trend can look no further than Marc Lawrence. According to the VegasInsider.com veteran handicapper, teams in the playoffs off back-to-back SU home favorite losses are 2-7 SU and ATS when facing a same conference, non-division foe since 1990, including 0-5 SU and ATS as dog of less than six points.
Even though those numbers don’t lean toward Orlando, the Magic does own a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS mark on three days of rest or more. However, the one loss was against Boston in Game 1 of this year’s conference semifinals.
ESPN will provide coverage of Game 3 at 8:30 p.m. EDT.
Game 4 will take place on Monday from TD Garden at the same time.
vegasinsider.com
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) at Boston (10-3 SU and ATS)
The streaking Celtics look to get a stranglehold on the Eastern Conference finals against the suddenly sinking Magic as this best-of-7 series shifts to TD Garden for Game 3.
Boston went on the road and upended Orlando in Games 1 and 2, opening the series with a 92-88 win as a 6½-point underdog Sunday, then pulling off a 95-92 upset as a seven-point pup Tuesday night. In the latter contest, Paul Pierce had 28 points, and Rajon Rondo had 25 points and eight assists for the Celts, who shot 45.9 percent from the floor (34 of 74), despite a 5-for-15 effort from 3-point range.
Boston has now won five in a row SU and ATS, going against the teams with the top two regular-season records in the NBA, taking three in a row from top overall seed Cleveland prior to the two wins at Orlando.
Orlando’s Dwight Howard, who had just 13 points in Game 1, poured in 30 in Game 2 and had eight rebounds, but only two of his teammates reached double figures, with Vince Carter and J.J. Redick adding 16 apiece. The Magic shot just 39.4 percent (28 of 71) and lost despite a sizable edge at the free-throw line, hitting 29 of 38 (76.3 percent) to Boston’s 22 of 28 (78.6 percent).
These rivals have split their last eight meetings at the betting window, with Orlando going 5-3 SU in that stretch, but Boston is 4-2 ATS (3-3 SU) in six meetings this season with the Magic. Going back to Game 7 of last year’s second-round playoff series – won by Orlando – the visitor and the underdog have covered in seven straight in this rivalry, and the Magic are 5-2 ATS on their last seven trips to Beantown.
The SU winner has cashed in all 13 of the Celts’ playoff contests and in 23 straight games overall for Doc Rivers’ team, and the SU winner is 17-1 ATS in the Magic’s last 18 contests.
Boston is 29-18 SU but just 17-29-1 ATS this season at the Garden, where it averages 99.7 ppg (48.5 percent shooting) and gives up 95.9 (45.6 percent). However, in the playoffs, the Celtics are 5-1 SU and ATS at home. Orlando is 29-16 (26-18-1 ATS) on the highway this season and has won 12 of its last 14 away from home (10-3-1 ATS), going 4-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs during sweeps of Charlotte and Atlanta, respectively.
Along with their 10-3 ATS mark in the postseason, the Celtics are on pointspread upswings of 5-0 overall, 6-1 against the Southeast Division, 5-1 at the Garden and 4-1 laying points, though they have failed to cash in four straight games following three or more days off.
Despite the two setbacks at home, the Magic remain on a slew of positive pointspread sprees, including 20-7-1 overall, 6-0 on the highway, 10-3-1 after a non-cover, 6-2 after a SU loss, 6-2 after three or more days off and 16-6 against the Atlantic Division. The lone negative: a 1-5-1 ATS mark in Orlando’s last seven starts as a ‘dog, all on the road.
Boston is on “under” rolls of 4-1 overall, 9-2 in conference finals contests (5-1 last six) and 5-2 as a playoff chalk. Likewise, Orlando sports a bundle of “under” streaks, including 7-2-1 overall (5-1 last six), 39-12-1 after a non-cover, 27-9 after a SU loss and 8-3 as a pup (all on the road).
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in nine of the last 10 clashes overall, including five of six this season. Also, the under is on a 4-0 streak between these two in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NBA RoundUp For 5/22
By Dan Bebe
Magic @ Celtics - Boston by 1.5 with a total of 188.5. First thing, this line has since moved to Boston -3.5 and 190. I'm not sure what I can write about this game that hasn't been covered 3 or 4 times on podcasts this week. It all boils down to one point, and one point only: if you believe that the line has been adjusted to create enough value that the Magic can finally cover one, you play on Orlando; if you believe that the Magic are simply outclassed, and that the Celtics are just going to finish what they started, you take Boston. That's it. I'm not sure this paragraph can really convince anyone, either way. It seems like everyone is sort of set in one school of thought, and unfortunately, because these Playoffs have been so completely one-sided in terms of which school is winning. For what it's worth, the school that's been winning is probably not the better long-term solution, but that doesn't mean that we shouldn't act, and react in handicapping just like in every other endeavor in sports. I don't believe this is going against anything we've been taught, either; I think it's just smart. If we run into a playoff series, or a collection of playoff series where one team completely owns another, we need to be ready for it, and right now, I think we've seen just about everything the Magic seem to have in the tank. They're not shooting well, they're not even getting open looks, and even with a very strong effort from Dwight Howard, Orlando still came up short at home, where they tend to shoot even better. I know it's nuts, but I happen to think the more public side is going to get one more, and I lean slightly to Boston. On the total, the last game appeared destined to go over, and it somehow snuck under - that makes me think the oddsmakers have this one pegged pretty well. I wouldn't get too caught up in it, but if you absolutely must make a play on it, I'd say it sneaks Under again.
Game of the day: Magic at Celtics
By Sean Murphy
Series story
The Celtics continue to surprise, opening this series with back-to-back wins in Orlando, putting an end to the Magic’s perfect playoff run.
Winning a pair of games in Orlando was no small feat. The Magic were 38-7 SU at home entering this series. Boston can now take credit for three of Orlando’s nine home losses in 2009-10.
Oddly enough, the Celtics have actually been better on the road than at home this season. The Magic should be able to draw confidence from their perfect 2-0 record in Boston during the regular season.
While Orlando is 26-18-1 ATS on the road, Boston is just 17-29-1 ATS at TD Garden.
Do you believe in Magic?
Has Orlando’s slow start in this series been a product of its relatively easy first and second round matchups?
The Bobcats and Hawks offered little resistance, as the Magic cruised to back-to-back series sweeps. It’s apparently made stepping up in class all the more difficult here in the Eastern finals.
The Magic are certainly saying all of the right things entering Saturday’s Game 3.
Philadelphia native Jameer Nelson is drawing parallels to the Flyers unbelievable comeback against the Bruins.
"Those guys on the Flyers were counted out and look what they did. The Flyers believed in themselves and we believe, too.”
The only problem with that logic is the Bruins were a team that barely snuck into the playoffs. The Celtics are just two years removed from an NBA championship and playing their best basketball of the season.
Dwight Howard came close to giving the Celtics bulletin board material.
"If they want to continue to talk, that's fine. There's no need to say we're going down fighting because we're not going down."
Care to offer a guarantee?
Time to relax?
“Our fans aren’t going to let us relax,’’ Paul Pierce said in an ESPN interview immediately following the Celtics Game 2 victory.
Pierce added, “Y’all not going to let us relax. We’re going to try to close this out in two games, you hear me? We’re coming home to close it out.”
Strong words.
Remember, this is a team that returned home only to be trounced by 29 points in Game 3 against the Cleveland Cavaliers last round.
Head coach Doc Rivers says his team and namely Pierce, could use a dose of humility if they’re serious about finishing this series off at home.
“I don’t mind the confidence part. That’s good. You have to have confidence, but we want to be humble, and we haven’t achieved anything. I think that’s what he was trying to say.”
Under the radar
Defense has ruled in this series, but it’s a trend that goes much deeper than that.
The under is 13-3 in the last 16 meetings between these two teams, including 9-1 in the last 10 dating back to Game 4 of last year’s playoff series.
Under backers were certainly fortunate to cash their ticket in Game 3, as that game sat just nine points shy of the posted total with a little over three and a half minutes left to play. Two missed free throws by Vince Carter proved to be the difference in that over/under result.
Perhaps it should come as no surprise that the under has been money in this series, as we’re talking about two of the league’s elite defensive teams.
Since allowing 124 points in Game 3 against the Cavs, the Celtics have really stepped up the intensity, allowing just 88 points per game on 40.2 percent shooting over their last five contests.
Even though the Magic are in an 0-2 hole, they’re still playing efficient defense, holding the Celtics to 92 and 95 points on 60-of-148 (40.5 percent) shooting in the first two games of this series.
Line moves
The Celtics opened as 3-point favorites at most offshore books, but have since been bet up a half-point to -3.5.
That’s in keeping with current consensus reports, which have bettors backing the Celtics at a 60/40 split.
Despite the first two games of this series playing under, the oddsmakers opened the Game 3 total one point higher than the closing number of 188.5 we saw in Game 2. Keep in mind, the Game 2 total opened at 186.5.
Consensus reports indicate a slight bias to the under, yet we’ve seen the total rise by a full point, and as high as 191 at some books.
Tips and Trends
Orlando Magic at Boston Celtics
Magic: Orlando is facing desperation, as they are down 0-2 to the Boston Celtics, with the next few games being played in Boston. Orlando has been so steady this season, rarely losing multiple games in a row. The Magic do have a few things working in their favor. They've lost both games by a total of 7 PTS, so it's not as if the final result was necessarily embarrassing. Also, the Magic can find solace in the fact that the road team is 6-0 between these teams this season. The Magic won both games SU in Boston this year, both times coming as the listed underdog. Orlando needs to improve their offensive efficiency, as they are only shooting 40% from the field in this series thus far. Orlando can also find home in the fact they've won the rebounding battle in both games so far this series. F Rashard Lewis needs to step his game up, after scoring a combined 11 PTS in this series with Boston. C Dwight Howard scored a playoff high 30 PTS in Game 2, so the Magic are expected to feed the ball even more to him while on the road. Orlando is 67-25 SU and 53-37-2 ATS overall this year. The Magic are 29-16 SU and 25-17-3 ATS in road games this year. The Magic are 10-5 ATS after a SU loss as the listed favorite.
Magic are 6-0 ATS last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Under is 13-3 last 16 against a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - F Matt Barnes (back) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 101 (OVER - Total of the Day)
Celtics (-3.5, O/U 190): Boston has clearly hit their stride in this post-season, as they are appear to be on a mission to make it back to the NBA Finals. Boston entered this series with revenge on their minds, as they lost last year in the conference finals to this Magic team. Boston is up 2-0, after winning both games in Orlando. Depending on who you talk to, the Celtics believe they can sweep the Magic. The only negative thing coming out of the Boston camp is the words of F Paul Pierce. After Game 2, Pierce put out to the media his confident thoughts about ending the season of the Magic. Pierce has been dynamic during this series with Orlando, averaging 25 PPG. Pierce credits his offensive production to the fact that he doesn't have to defend LeBron James. 4 different Boston players average more than 16 PPG during the playoffs this year. PG Rajon Rondo continues to be dynamic, as he is averaging a team high 17.8 PPG and 10 APG during the playoffs. Boston is 60-35 SU and 43-50-2 ATS overall this year. The Celtics are 29-18 SU and 17-29-1 ATS in home contests this season. Boston is only 3-6 ATS as a home favorite between 3.5 and 6 PTS this year.
Celtics are 6-1 ATS last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 13-3 last 16 against a team with a winning SU record.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 96